Tag Archives: North Carolina

Sen. Scott Shows Movement; Biden vs. GOP Candidates; Tight Race in Michigan; Alabama Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 20, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Showing Movement — Last week we saw New Hampshire polls found Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) moving into either third place on the GOP ballot test question, or tying for that same position. Now, we see a new national poll showing similar upward mobility for the South Carolina senator.

YouGov America, polling for the University of Massachusetts (May 31-June 8; 1,133 US adults; online), finds former President Donald Trump again leading among national Republicans with a 56 percent preference figure while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails with 26 percent support. Sen. Scott, though posting only four percent, moves past the other second tier candidates for third place.

The general election pairings also show him highly competitive with President Joe Biden. While Biden leads former President Donald Trump 43-40 percent in the national popular vote question and posts a 41-37 percent margin against Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Scott falls into the same realm. Despite not being well known nationally, he actually polls the best against the president, trailing only 37-35 percent.

Michigan Poll: Highly Competitive Results — The new EPIC-MRA Michigan poll (June 8-14; 60 likely Michigan voters; live interview) again reveals a familiar pattern. That is, President Biden’s job approval rating is extremely low, yet he pulls even in the ballot test with both former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The polling sample tilts slightly Republican because the black vote is under-represented by three points when compared to the US Census Michigan population figures.

While President Biden’s job approval ratio is a terrible 29:69 percent favorable to unfavorable (nine percent excellent; 20 percent pretty good; 25 percent just fair; 44 percent poor), he still pulls even with Trump in the Michigan ballot test at 44 percent apiece. When paired with Gov. DeSantis, the president trails by one point, 45-44 percent.

The EPIC poll obviously suggests that Michigan will be a battleground state in the presidential race, but most analysts are projecting it will remain in the Democratic column when the votes are ultimately counted.

Senate

Michigan: Poll Shows Tight Race — The aforementioned EPIC-MRA Michigan poll (see Michigan president above) also tested the impending open Wolverine State US Senate race. The pollsters pitted Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), the early favorite for the Democratic nomination, and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig, potentially the most well known Republican. The ballot test revealed a tighter contest than expected with Rep. Slotkin holding only a 40-39 percent edge over retired Chief Craig. Both figures contain eight percent in the “lean” category for both Rep. Slotkin and Craig.

The Michigan race will likely move closer to the Democratic column as the year-long campaign evolves. There is a slight Republican skew in this polling sample as blacks are slightly under-represented. Both Rep. Slotkin and Craig are unknown to the majority of the respondent universe indicating that each will have to spend money to increase name identification. The seat is open because four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring.

House

Alabama Redistricting: Court Determines Re-Mapping Calendar — After last week’s US Supreme Court’s ruling that invalidated the Alabama congressional map, the federal three judge panel assuming jurisdiction has sent the map back to the state legislature to begin the re-drawing process. SCOTUS agreed with the plaintiffs in the case that a second majority minority district can be drawn in the state. The current map yields a 6R-1D split.

The court is giving the legislature until July 21 to produce a new map for judicial review. If the legislature cannot complete the plan within that time frame, the court may step in and order a special master to manage the map drawing process.

SCOTUS will also rule on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering and judicial power lawsuit before the end of June. That ruling could have an effect upon the Alabama case as it relates to judicial control over the redistricting process. Therefore, the situation could again change once the North Carolina ruling is made public.

DeSantis Set to Announce Candidacy; Delaware Sen. Tom Carper to Retire; New Challenger in AZ-1; Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Gov. in NC

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 24, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Announces Today — Multiple reports are indicating that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will announce his long-awaited presidential campaign today in a Twitter interview with Elon Musk.

Thus, the slow developing national campaign is now getting underway. In addition to the DeSantis announcement, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all expected to soon formally enter the race, joining former President Donald Trump, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. The first vote will be in the Iowa Caucuses currently scheduled for Feb. 5, 2024.

Senate

Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (D) will Retire — Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced that he will conclude his long political career at the end of this Congress. Doing so means he will have served in elective office for 48 consecutive years when his current term ends.

Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) to retire.

Sen. Carper was first elected state Treasurer in 1976, then to the US House in 1982, governor in 1992, and the US Senate in 2000. During yesterday’s retirement announcement, he encouraged At-Large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), one of his former congressional staff members, to run for the Senate seat.

Carper becomes the fifth senator to forego re-election in 2024 and the fourth Democrat. He joins Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Mike Braun (R-IN), Ben Cardin (D-MD), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in the group who are voluntarily ending their Washington careers. All are retiring from politics with the exception of Sen. Braun who is running for governor of Indiana.

It remains to be seen if Rep. Blunt Rochester runs for the Senate – it is presumed she will – but another possibility is outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024. Carney, himself a former congressman, could launch a primary challenge for the Senate, which could send Rep. Blunt Rochester into the open governor’s contest. The latter move is not likely, however, since the congresswoman could have easily hopped into what was known to be an open race long before Sen. Carper’s announcement.

House

AZ-1: Another Democrat to Challenge GOP Rep. David Schweikert — Arizona Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close one-point re-election victory over Democratic newcomer Jevin Hodge last November has led to several different Democrats vying for the right to challenge the veteran GOP congressman in the next election. The Democratic field is enlarged because Hodge has decided not to return for a re-match. The new 1st District, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7, is six points less Republican than Rep. Schweikert’s previous 6th CD.

Joining the group with the announcement is former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, the wife of the late Attorney General Grant Woods who was originally elected as a Republican but switched to the Democratic Party.

Previously announced are state representative and physician Amish Shah (D-Phoenix), former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni, ex-Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, orthodontist Andrew Horne, and educator and frequent candidate W. John Williamson. Expect this race to again evolve into a national competitive congressional campaign after the Democratic nomination is decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, primary election.

NY-3: Top Republican Says “Not Interested” — As the saga of Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island) continues, it has been no secret that Long Island Republican Party leaders were looking to state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) as a potential replacement congressional nominee. While Sen. Martins indicated Monday that he “… hopes Santos will resign,” he further stated that he is “not at all interested” in running for the seat regardless of whether Santos is in the congressional race or not. Therefore, the GOP brain trust may have to begin again to identify a potential candidate either in an open-seat situation or to challenge a beleaguered Rep. Santos in the next Republican primary.

Governor

North Carolina: Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Governor — Former three-term US Rep. Mark Walker (R), who found himself without a district under the state Supreme Court-drawn map in 2020 and then ran an ill-fated 2022 US Senate campaign (losing the Republican primary to now-Sen. Ted Budd and only attracting 9.2 percent of the vote), Monday announced his gubernatorial candidacy.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the 2024 election. So far, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has a wide early lead for the party nomination and even enjoys a small polling edge over his likely Democratic gubernatorial counterpart, Attorney General Josh Stein. Walker argues that Lt. Gov. Robinson will be a poor general election candidate, thus potentially leading the party to a big loss in the November 2024 vote: hence, his reasoning for entering the governor’s race. North Carolina promises to host one of the most competitive gubernatorial campaigns on the 2024 national election card.

NY, NC House News; Polls Flipped in Mississippi; Robinson Leads in NC Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 4, 2023

House

Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D)

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Moving Forward — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) appears intent on attempting to re-claim the Westchester County Congressional seat he abandoned in an unsuccessful attempt to win a newly created New York City open district last year. Reports from the state say Jones has dismissed any thought of challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary to focus on a return to the 17th District.

Driving Jones’ decision to find a new seat in 2020 was then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D) plan to run in the 17th. Maloney being defeated in the general election at the hands of freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the D+7 rated district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization makes this 2024 campaign a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

Though Jones may return, he will face Democratic primary competition from at least one announced candidate: Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustee Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

NC-8: Rep. Dan Bishop Testing the AG Waters — Reports are surfacing from the Tar Heel State that Charlotte US Rep. Dan Bishop may be looking to run for the state’s open attorney general’s post. Rep. Bishop looks to have the inside track to the Republican nomination if he chooses to run. Western North Carolina District Attorney Andrew Murray is interested in in the statewide post but suggests he will step aside for Rep. Bishop if the congressman decides to enter the race.

Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is a potential Democratic AG candidate, looking to succeed incumbent Josh Stein (D) who is running for governor. Rep. Jackson appears as the potential top target in what is expected to be a new redistricting plan coming from the legislature as a direct result of the state Supreme Court’s recent redistricting and voter ID rulings.

Governor

Mississippi: Conflicting Polling Data Reported — Earlier this week, we reported about a Siena College poll (April 16-20; 783 registered Mississippi voters; live interview & online) that posted Gov. Tate Reeves (R) to an expanding 49-38 percent lead over Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). Countering that result, Presley’s campaign yesterday released their own internal data (Impact Research; April 24-27; 600 likely Mississippi voters) the results of which portend a much different conclusion. IR finds its candidate, Presley, actually leading Gov. Reeves, 47-44 percent. Ths 2023 Magnolia State general election campaign promises to be much more competitive than in years past.

North Carolina: New GOP Primary Poll — Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has opened a huge lead in the open Republican gubernatorial primary according to a new Survey USA Poll. The study (April 25-29; 707 likely Republican North Carolina primary voters; live interview & online) projects Robinson to a whopping 43-9-8-4 percent lead over former Congressman Mark Walker, North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell, respectively.

The GOP winner will likely face Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in the general election. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Alaska Moves to Repeal Ranked Choice Voting; Ranked Choice Voting Killed in Montana; NC Redistricting News; Reeves Increases Lead in Miss.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 2, 2023

States

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)

Alaska: Move to Repeal Ranked Choice Voting — In 2020, Alaska voters with only a 50.5 percent victory margin approved a top-four/Ranked Choice Voting election change that has had a major effect upon the state’s elections. Under the system, all candidates are placed on the same ballot with the top four finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advancing into the general election. In the regular vote, if no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice process takes effect.

Supporters of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) were active in getting the measure passed correctly believing that the system would help her. A top-four structure would guarantee the senator advancing to the general election, thus bypassing what had proven to be her main point of vulnerability: a partisan Republican primary.

Now, conservative activists backed by Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, and 2022 US Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka are mounting a signature campaign for a ballot initiative that would repeal the current system. The legislature is also considering legislation to do the same. Proponents of the repeal initiative must submit 26,705 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the measure. The group has already recruited the mandatory 100 petition sponsors and received initial approval from the lieutenant governor, meaning the initiative is officially qualified for signature gathering. The group’s goal is to place the measure on the 2024 general election ballot.

Montana: Top-Two Primary Could Return, Ranked Choice Voting Killed — Late last week, Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) signed legislation to prohibit the Ranked Choice Voting system from being instituted in the state of Montana, joining several other states that have taken similar action.

Reports also suggest that proponents of legislation to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for the all-party jungle primary system that would qualify the top two finishing candidates for advancement into the general election may still be revived in the state House of Representatives before the current legislative session adjourns. The measure has already passed the state Senate but was tabled in a House policy committee. It is possible another committee could consider the measure and pass it to the floor for a vote in the session’s final days.

North Carolina: State Supreme Court Nullifies Previous Redistricting Ruling — In the 2022 election, Republicans converted two Democratic seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court, which gave the GOP a 5-2 majority. In the post-election session, the outgoing Democratic panel ruled that the state Senate boundaries were unconstitutional as was the North Carolina voter ID law. The congressional and state House maps are court-drawn. The new Republican court decided to reconsider these previous court rulings and on Friday reversed the directives.

This means the legislature can redraw all of the district maps and their chance of being upheld in this state Supreme Court is high. The new court and the legislature’s majority members are much closer in the way they view redistricting law and procedure. Therefore, we can soon count on seeing a new congressional plan that will likely break the 7R-7D current delegation’s partisan division. The new draw will inevitably add Republican seats to the congressional delegation at the likely expense of some of the less senior Democratic members.

The high court’s action could also lead to a moot ruling on a similar case currently before the US Supreme Court. If the federal justices take such action on the Moore vs. Harper political gerrymandering and judicial authority case, then we will not see a sweeping Supreme Court directive pertaining to political gerrymandering. This would, at least for the short term, continue the practice of awarding the final redistricting judicial authority to the 50 state Supreme Courts.

Governor

Mississippi: Gov. Reeves Increases Lead — A new Siena College poll of the Mississippi electorate (April 16-20; 783 registered Mississippi voters; live interview & online) projects Gov. Tate Reeves (R) expanding what was a closer lead over Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). The ballot test yields Gov. Reeves a 49-38 percent advantage. In early March, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found the governor holding a 46-39 percent edge.

While the Siena College poll revealed the governor’s job approval index at 53:46 percent favorable to unfavorable, his personal popularity remains upside down. This latest data projects for him only a 42:45 percent positive to negative ratio. Gov. Reeves faces only minor competition in the Aug. 8 Republican primary and Commissioner Presley is unopposed on the Democratic side. Therefore, it is clear the two will face each other in the Nov. 7 general election.

Democratic Primary Poll Numbers; D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent; Military Doc Announces for House; 17 Candidates for RI-1 Seat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 28, 2023

President

Fox News Poll: First Democratic Primary Numbers — Fox News released the results of their current poll (conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R); April 21-24; 1,004 US registered voters; 392 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), which looks to be the first national survey testing the Democratic presidential nomination campaign featuring President Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and author Marianne Williamson.

In a contest most believe will not be much competition for the presidency, Biden reaches only 62 percent among the Democratic partisans, a number viewed as low for an incumbent within his own party. Kennedy records 19 percent support, while Williamson is the choice of nine percent.

House

NY-4: Rep. D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent — New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) was the biggest upset winner in the 2022 election. He captured a Long Island-anchored 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates as D+10, which is tied with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R) CA-22 as the most Democratic seat that elected a Republican to the US House.

Rep. D’Esposito has now drawn his first re-election opponent. Attorney and two-time congressional candidate Pat Maher (D) yesterday announced that he will again run for Congress. It is likely, however, that the local Democratic leadership will recruit and support a stronger candidate once the election cycle progresses.

NC-13: Military Physician Announces for House — Surgeon and Air Force Reserve Col. Josh McConkey (R), who is also an adjunct professor at Duke University, announced that he will challenge freshman North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) in the state’s 13th District.

The challenger field has largely been held in check so far because it is apparent that the North Carolina legislature will redraw the current court-drawn congressional map. This should make the swing 13th CD more Republican. The 2022 nominee, businessman Bo Hines (R), who lost to Nickel 52-48 percent, is likely to also enter the Republican primary.

RI-1: Now, There Are 17 — Lincoln Town Councilmember Pamela Azar became the 17th Democrat to enter the special election campaign to replace Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence), who is expected to resign from the House on June 1. Gov. Dan McKee (D) has already said he will call the special primary election for Sept. 5. The special general will then be scheduled concurrently with the regular municipal elections on Nov. 7.

In a 1st District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the huge Democratic primary. Within the field are Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, six sitting state legislators, two local officials, and a former White House aide.

Two More Presidential Prospects; New Candidate for NC Gov’s Race; Chicago, Houston Mayoral News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 30, 2023

President

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

New Prospects: Two Schedule Trips to Primary States — A pair of new Republican potential presidential candidates appear to be exploring the national campaign hustings. Reportedly, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) are beginning to test the political waters with appearances in the early primary states.

Should they move forward, former President Trump will likely be the big winner. The greater number of individuals who have little chance of winning the nomination but still become candidates makes it easier for Trump to score plurality victories and secure the highest number of delegates.

States

North Carolina: New Gubernatorial Candidate Enters — Tar Heel State Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has received the preponderance of early attention regarding the 2024 open Republican gubernatorial nomination, but another individual has jumped ahead of him to become the first official GOP candidate. State Treasurer Dale Folwell declared his gubernatorial candidacy Monday, thus setting up a tough primary battle with Robinson, who is set to soon officially announce his bid.

The lone Democrat in the race, Attorney General Josh Stein, is well on his way to becoming a consensus party candidate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. As with all North Carolina statewide races, the 2024 battle will yield a tight final result.

Cities

Chicago: Breaking Vallas’ Way — Two positive occurrences happened Monday for Chicago mayoral candidate Paul Vallas, now just one week away from runoff election day. First, Emerson College released their new survey conducted for the WGN Television in Chicago and The Hill newspaper in Washington, DC. The study (March 23-25; 1,000 likely Chicago voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Vallas to a 46-41 percent lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. The polls have see-sawed throughout the runoff period.

Secondly, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) has announced his public support of Vallas, thus bringing him more key Illinois Democratic establishment support. The election is scheduled for April 4.

Houston: Rep. Jackson Lee (D) to Run for Mayor — As has been anticipated for several months, Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) announced Monday that she will enter the 2023 open Houston mayor’s race. The congresswoman will not have to risk her US House seat to run for the post, but must resign if elected. If this occurs, a special election will then be scheduled to fill the unexpired portion of her congressional term. Already, a field of 11 individuals have announced their mayoral candidacies even though candidate filing doesn’t conclude until Aug. 21.

The major candidates, in addition to Rep. Jackson Lee who was first elected to Congress in 1994, include state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), former city councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, Houston Metro Board member and ex-Texas Democratic Party Vice Chairman Chris Hollins, and attorney Lee Kaplan. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner is ineligible to seek a third term.

Census Reapportionment:
The Hidden Votes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 9, 2023

President

Census Reapportionment: The Hidden Votes — Already, the 2024 presidential race has actually gotten closer. The 2020 national election was decided by a 74 electoral vote margin, a 306-232 margin for Democrat Joe Biden. Without any state changing its 2020 outcome, however, his victory spread has now decreased to 68 EVs.

Census reapportionment is the reason, and it makes a net six-vote difference in the Republicans’ favor based upon Donald Trump’s aggregate EV number from the last election. This is because reapportioning the number of US House seats throughout the country affects and changes the electoral vote count (EVC). As you know, the EVC is comprised of each state’s federal representatives, meaning two senators and the number of House members each entity possesses.

Therefore, under the new totals, Biden’s winning count over his Republican opponent would be 303-235. Understanding that the presidential winner needs 270 electoral votes, the Republican deficit is now 35 as opposed to 38. This is important because it changes the number of states that Republicans must convert in order to win the next race.

President Biden loses electoral votes in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, but gained two back in Colorado and Oregon. The first five lost a congressional seat apiece in reapportionment, while the latter two gained a district apiece. Conversely, the next Republican nominee would gain electoral votes in Texas (2), Florida, Montana, and North Carolina, but lose one apiece in Ohio and West Virginia. Thus, the Republicans gained an aggregate three electoral votes while the Democrats lost three, for the net swing of six.

For the next Republican nominee, he or she must again re-establish the party’s southern core. Former President Trump needed to carry the southern tier states of Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida to position himself throughout the rest of the country. He failed to do so, losing Arizona and Georgia, but the next nominee must return these two entities to the GOP column if the party is to have any chance of again winning the White House.

If the next Republican nominee fails to take these two states, for a total of 27 electoral votes (Georgia 16; Arizona 11), there is no realistic chance of cobbling together a 270-vote victory coalition. The GOP nominee will need at least one more state to convert in addition to Arizona and Georgia, with Wisconsin’s 10 votes being the simplest numerical path to an outright state coalition victory.

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