Tag Archives: New York

Christie Out in Maine; Florida Redistricting; Santos Out, Now What?; Maloy Challenged in Utah; House Retirements Reversal

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023

Senate

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Chris Christie: Fails to Qualify for Maine Ballot — Due in part to a notary clerical error, GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie has failed to qualify for the Maine Super Tuesday primary scheduled for March 5, 2024. It remains to be seen if the Christie campaign will attempt to access the ballot via court order. Christie is the only significant GOP candidate not to meet the Maine ballot qualification requirement of submitting 2,000 valid registered voter petition signatures.

House

Florida Redistricting: Appeals Court Overturns Map Rejection — A Florida appeals court overturned a lower court ruling that declared the state’s congressional map as an illegal racial gerrymander. This means the ruling that the northern portion of the map be redrawn is nullified. An appeal to the state Supreme Court is likely. Even if the plaintiffs move forward, however, the time it would take for the high panel to hear the complaint could well extend past the April 26 candidate filing deadline. This means the current map now has a relatively strong chance of lasting at least through the 2024 election cycle.

In its ruling, the appellate directive stated, “The constitution cannot demand that all voters are treated equally without regard to race and at the same time demand that voters are treated differently based on race.” The plaintiffs want a majority minority district reinstated in northern Florida. In the previous decade a 5th District that stretched from Tallahassee into Jacksonville was drawn to elect an African American Representative.

NY-3’s Rep. Santos Expelled: What Now? — Based upon the House Ethics Committee report about now former Rep. George Santos’ (R-Long Island) alleged unethical and illegal activities, the House on a 311-114 count reached the necessary two-thirds vote of those present and voting to expel the freshman member. A special election will now be called to fill the balance of the term. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will have 10 days in which to schedule the vote. According to New York governing parameters, the eligible election days are either Feb. 20 or 27.

Under the Empire State procedure, the affected county party chairmen have the power to nominate their special election standard bearers. Because Nassau County comprises three quarters of the 3rd District, only one individual will effectively select the nominee for the various parties. Since the county chairmen votes are weighted based upon entity population, the Nassau chairman can out-vote the Queens Borough chairman.

The Democrats are apparently going to announce their nominee today, which will very likely be former Congressman Tom Suozzi. He will be favored in the special general against whomever the Republican chairman chooses. It is less clear what action the Republican chairman will take and when.

Suozzi represented the 3rd District for three terms beginning in 2017. He did not seek re-election in 2022 because he launched a long-shot campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination and was unsuccessful.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-3 as D+4, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a more favorable Democratic partisan lean, 56.4D – 42.0R. President Joe Biden posted a 53.6 – 45.4 percent victory here opposite Donald Trump in 2020. Republicans scored a rebound in 2022, however. Gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin carried NY-3 with a 56-44 percent margin despite losing statewide. The Republicans also saw their Nassau County Executive candidate unseat a Democratic incumbent.

UT-2: New Rep. Maloy Already Challenged — While Utah Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) was just sworn into office last week after winning the Nov. 21 special election, she has already drawn a 2024 Republican primary opponent. Army Reserve colonel and technology company executive Colby Jenkins (R) declared his congressional candidacy against the new congresswoman on Friday.

Jenkins says he will pursue the controversial ruling that awarded Maloy a ballot position even though she registered to vote after the candidate filing deadline. At this point, Rep. Maloy should be favored for renomination, but it is likely that she will already become embroiled in a new campaign. The Utah state primary is scheduled for June 25.

House Members: Re-Election Announcements — While we saw a spate of House retirements in November (13 in all), five members on Friday declared for re-election. Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Chris Smith (R-NJ) second in House seniority and returning to seek a 23rd term, Frank Lucas (R-OK), and Joe Wilson (R-SC) are en masse reversing the retirement trend.

Key Ramaswamy Aide Switches to Trump; A Year-Long CA-25 Challenge; Mondaire Jones Poised to Return; Ranked Choice Voting in Montana?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 1, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen (Linkedin photo)

Vivek Ramaswamy: Key Aide Switches to Trump — It appears Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign may have already peaked. The campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen, is departing the Ramaswamy camp in order to join former President Donald Trump’s campaign as a strategic consultant. Along with the departures of former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former Congressman Will Hurd, and commentator Larry Elder, it appears the Republican presidential campaign’s winnowing process is well underway.

While former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie seem to be gaining slight momentum in at least some of the early states, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy either remain stagnant or are starting to descend. All indications maintain that the nomination still appears as Trump’s to lose.

House

CA-25: Rep. Ruiz Draws Potential Year-Long Democratic Challenger — As the Dec. 8 California candidate filing deadline draws near, we see political moves being made across the state. Indio Mayor Oscar Ortiz (D) on Wednesday announced a challenge to six-term US Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio). Ortiz’s entry into the race could mean that this competition will last all the way through the general election. Under California’s all-party top-two qualifying system, two members of the same party can advance into the general election.

California’s 25th District occupies the far southeastern sector of the state and touches the Mexican border. The seat includes Imperial County and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+12, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-25 as the 64th-most vulnerable Democratic seat in the party conference. Considering the announced Republican candidates appear weak, seeing a double-Democratic general election from this district is a distinct possibility.

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Gets Clear Shot — Former one-term Congressman Mondaire Jones (D), who left the Rockland/Westchester County district to unsuccessfully seek re-election in New York City, has returned to upstate New York to again run for Congress. It now appears that he will have a clear shot to again become the Democratic standard bearer.

Former local school board member Liz Gereghty (D), the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), announced Wednesday that she will leave the campaign trail. The Gereghty move all but assures that Jones will return to oppose GOP freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in one of the nation’s top challenger races.

NY-17 is a district that President Joe Biden carried by just over 10 percentage points. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-17 as the sixth-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Additionally, there is a good chance that a new redistricting map could make this seat even more Democratic.

States

Montana: State Supreme Court Rules Top Four Prop to Ballot — Overruling Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), the Montana state Supreme Court directed that the ballot proposition changing the state’s primary to an all-party top four system, similarly found in Alaska, will be placed before the voters next year. The system places all candidates for partisan office on one primary ballot, and the top four finishers, regardless of percentage attained or political party affiliation, will advance into the general election.

The problem with the Montana system is that Ranked Choice Voting, used in other places to determine the general election outcome if no candidate receives majority support, has already been made illegal for Montana elections via the legislature and governor. The purpose of the top four system, according to its proponents, was to create a system that produces a majority vote winner. At this point, it does not appear that the Montana top four system, even if adopted, will guarantee such an outcome.

Michigan Senate Candidate Switches Races; New Mexico Redistricting Appeal; Replacement Nominee for NY-26; How Governors Rank

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023

Senate

Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D)

Michigan: Democratic Senate Candidate Switches Races — Michigan State Board of Education president Pamela Pugh, who was facing an uphill Democratic US Senate primary against US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), exited the statewide campaign and on Monday declared for the now open 8th Congressional District race. Last week, six-term US Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D), a former state representative, is also expected to join the party primary.

The 8th District is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.0D – 46.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin. Therefore, both parties can expect to see competitive nomination battles and a toss-up general election.

House

New Mexico: State Supreme Court Rejects GOP Redistricting Appeal — The New Mexico state Supreme Court unsurprisingly unanimously upheld a lower court ruling that concluded the state’s congressional map did not constitute and “egregious gerrymander.” Therefore, the current map will stand for the remainder of the decade.

The courts sited the closeness of the 2022 District 2 election that saw Democratic local official Gabe Vasquez unseat freshman Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by less than a percentage point (1,350 votes) from just under 193,000 cast ballots. Herrell is returning for a rematch next year, which is again expected to be close.

NY-26: One Man May Pick the Next Congressman — With 10-term Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) announcing that he will resign during the first week of February to run a civic organization back in Buffalo, speculation is churning as to who will replace the outgoing congressman. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will calendar a special election after the resignation is official, and then the party county chairmen will choose their nominees.

New York’s 26th District is comprised of parts of two counties, Erie and Niagara, and since the district is heavily Democratic (FiveThirtyEight rates the seat as D+18; the Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-26 as the 78th-most vulnerable seat within the Democratic Conference), one man will effectively have the power of anointing the next congressman.

Since 80 percent of the district lies in Erie County, that county’s Democratic party chairman will have a greater weighted say than the Niagara County chair. Odds appear strong that chairman Jeremy Zellner will choose Eric County Executive Mark Poloncarz as the party nominee. Poloncarz will then easily win the succeeding special election.

Governor

Morning Consult: New Approval Ratings Rank Governors Highly — Morning Consult released their quarterly report on the nation’s governors Monday, and again we see almost all state chief executives posting strong job approval ratios. As has been the case for the past couple of years, Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) and Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) have the strongest ratings at 84:13 percent and 74:16 percent positive to negative, respectively.

All but seven governors reached at least the 50 percent approval mark and only one, Mississippi’s Tate Reeves (R), was slightly upside-down with a 45:46 percent index. Yet, he was just re-elected to a second four-year term at the beginning of the month.

The top 10 highly rated governors are: Scott and Gordon; Govs. Josh Green (D-HI), Chris Sununu (R-NH), Kay Ivey (R-AL), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Jared Polis (D-CO), Ned Lamont (D-CT), Jim Justice (R-WV), and Spencer Cox (R-UT). Those with the poorest ratings are Reeves and Govs. Tina Kotek (D-OR), Kim Reynolds (R-IA), John Bel Edwards (D-LA), Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), Jay Inslee (D-WA), Dan McKee (D-RI), Tony Evers (D-WI), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), and Mike Parson (R-MO).

Another Close Poll in Ohio; Three Retirements — Ohio’s Wenstrup, NY’s Higgins, Kilmer of Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Another Close Poll — The Data for Progress research organization released their new Ohio Senate poll, which differs wildly from the Ohio Northern University (ONU) survey results published in mid-October. The DfP poll (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 597 likely Ohio voters; online) finds virtual ties for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with all three major Republican primary contenders. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose does the best among the Republicans, tying Sen. Brown at 46 percent apiece.

Opposite state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), the senator holds just a one-point, 47-46 percent, edge. His margin opposite businessman Bernie Moreno is only three points, 47-44 percent.

These results contrast with the ONU data that yielded Sen. Brown margins between 13 and 22 points against the same GOP opponents. The Data for Progress results, however, are more consistent with other polls conducted for this race. The Ohio campaign will be one of the nation’s top 2024 US Senate race and is considered a virtual must-win campaign for the GOP if the party is going to wrest the chamber majority away from the Democrats.

House

OH-2: Rep. Wenstrup to Retire — Ohio’s six-term US Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) announced via video message on Friday that he will not be seeking re-election in 2024. Wenstrup first came to Congress in 2012 when he scored an upset victory over then-Rep. Jean Schmidt in that year’s Republican primary. The congressman has not been seriously challenged since.

Ohio’s 2nd District contains all or parts of 16 southern counties that stretch from the eastern Cincinnati suburbs all the way to West Virginia. Republicans will have little trouble holding the district as an open seat and Wenstrup’s successor will be determined in the March 19 GOP primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+49. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a whopping 72-27 percent majority. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-2 as the 13th safest Republican seat in the GOP Conference.

NY-26: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) to Resign — New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) clarified over the weekend that he will resign from the House in February in order to become president of the Shea’s Performing Arts Center in his home city of Buffalo. Rep. Higgins was first elected in 2004 from a 26th District that includes two-thirds of Erie County and almost three-quarters of Niagara County.

The Democrats should have little trouble holding this district, though a new open seat in western New York could influence what is likely a second round of redistricting to come early next year. Therefore, the confines of the Buffalo-anchored district could change.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 61.4D – 36.1R partisan lean. President Joe Biden recorded a 61-37 percent win here in the 2020 election. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks this district as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

WA-6: Rep. Kilmer Won’t Seek Re-Election — Another six-term US House member also announced his retirement on Friday. Washington Congressman Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) will leave the House after what will be 12 years in office at the end of the current Congress. Rep. Kilmer indicated in his retirement announcement that it is time for a new challenge.

Washington’s 6th District encompasses the Olympic Peninsula, the large area west of Seattle and the Puget Sound that stretches to the Pacific Ocean. The 6th is reliably Democratic, and the August partisan primary will likely determine Kilmer’s successor. Before Rep. Kilmer won the seat in 2012, then-Rep. Norm Dicks (D) held the 6th District for 36 years.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-6 as D+10, but Dave’s Redistricting App suggests a stronger 55.8D – 42.4R partisan lean advantage. President Biden won the 6th District constituency with a 57-40 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WA-6 as the 57th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

Redistricting Update – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023

House

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Six States: Both Parties Affected — Court rulings in two congressional redistricting states will likely be handed down within the next few days, and another’s legislature will soon begin to redraw their current boundaries.

The Alabama special master is mandated to report to the three-judge panel that ordered the redraw during next month’s first week. The New Mexico state Supreme Court directed the assigned lower court in Roswell to report its decision during the first few days of October. The North Carolina legislature is going into special session during the first week of October to redraw their maps.

Today, we look at the situation in the first six states that may see another round of congressional redistricting, those from Alabama through New York. Tomorrow, we will look at the remaining five domains from North Carolina through Wisconsin.

• Alabama: The US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the federal three-judge panel’s ruling that disqualified the legislature’s map means that the court-appointed special master will deliver a final map to the court on or around Oct. 3. The released three public options are similar.

All would pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in one southern Alabama district that would stretch the width of the state from Mississippi to Florida. A new majority minority 2nd District would then be created and anchored in Montgomery County. The end result will be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Florida: The lower court ruling declaring the Florida congressional map unconstitutional means the state will likely be forced to redraw the map at some future point. The state and the plaintiffs agreed the redraw would only affect the north Florida sector and concentrate on whether the former 5th CD, that previously stretched from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, will be reconstructed in some manner. The state is appealing the ruling, so we can count on seeing significant time elapse before this issue is decided.

The members’ districts most affected would be Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), and Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach). The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, 2024, so enough time remains for the map to be redrawn before the next election. Other regional members could also be tangentially affected. The concluding outcome would likely be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Georgia: A lawsuit challenging the state’s 6th District (Rep. Richard McCormick; R-Suwanee), claims that the Atlanta metro area has been gerrymandered to deny African Americans another seat. This case will require very significant time to maneuver through the entire legal process. Therefore, it is probable that any final judicial decision will not come before the 2024 election.

• Louisiana: The Louisiana situation is similar to that of Alabama’s. SCOTUS’ Alabama decision could force a redraw here, too, but no action has yet been taken. The state elections, including the governor’s office, are scheduled for Oct. 14, with a runoff on Nov. 18 for the undecided races. Candidates securing majority support are elected outright in the first election. Therefore, no redistricting action will occur until well after the state elections are concluded, and likely after the first of next year.

Considering Louisiana’s unique election system that holds its first regular vote concurrent with the general election, plenty of time remains for a court to force a legislative redraw of the congressional lines, or eventually appoint a special master to make the changes. The most apparent vulnerable reconfiguration member is Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). Should a redraw occur before the 2024 election, the Democrats would likely gain one seat in this delegation.

• New Mexico: Republicans have filed suit here, claiming the map is a partisan gerrymander. The New Mexico state Supreme Court has directed the lower court in Roswell to render a decision this week — the first week of October. The ruling’s losing party will undoubtedly appeal to the state Supreme Court. If they decide a redraw is in order, expect it to happen before the 2024 election.

The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024, with a yet to be determined candidate filing deadline, though it will be sometime in February. A redraw would give the Republicans a better chance of regaining the state’s southern congressional seat.

• New York: Currently, the New York map is an interim court draw that the legislature, with input from an appointed commission, can replace. It is expected the Democratic legislature will make a move to draw a more favorable map. Last time, the legislature attempted to draw a 22D-4R map, but even the Democratic controlled courts ruled that such was a partisan gerrymander. Therefore, when they make boundary changes, the map drawers will likely be more cognizant of going too far since Republicans are sure to repeal.

Still, Democrats could make significant gains under a new map. Even under the current plan, a two-seat gain appears to be a minimum. It would not be surprising to see the Democrats convert three or four seats here in the coming 2024 election.

South Carolina Primary Challenge; Utah Senate Candidates Post-Romney; Manchin Contemplating Party Exit; Census Estimates Released; Former NJ Governor May Return

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 18, 2023

Senate

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina: Budding 2026 Primary Challenge — US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the 2026 Republican primary. Rep. Norman, elected in a 2017 special election after winning six terms in the state House of Representatives, is a leader in the House Freedom Caucus. If he does run, he will oppose Sen. Graham from the party’s right flank.

Utah: AG Won’t Run — Immediately after Sen. Mitt Romney (R) announced he will not run for re-election, speculation about who might enter the race began running rampant. The two who appear as sure candidates are state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R). One individual who rather surprisingly has already taken himself out of the Senate race is Attorney General Sean Reyes, who at one time was thought to become a Romney primary challenger. Late last week, Reyes said he will run for re-election as attorney general, thus bypassing the open Senate race.

West Virginia: Manchin Contemplating Party Exit — Reportedly, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who has not yet decided whether to seek re-election, make a third party run for president, or retire from politics, is also contemplating leaving the Democratic Party. Therefore, if he does run for office again a strong possibility exists that he will do so as an Independent.

Sen. Manchin faces a difficult re-election run as the West Virginia Democratic Party’s status has weakened considerably since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The senator was originally elected in a 2010 special election. He has served as West Virginia’s governor, secretary of state, and in both houses of the state legislature, all as a Democrat. West Virginia continues to be rated as the Republican’s top conversion Senate opportunity. Both Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) are competing for the Republican nomination.

States

Census: Estimates Released — The Census Bureau has released new population growth statistics for the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The fastest growing states for the period ending July 1, 2022, are Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The states losing the most population are New York, Louisiana, Illinois, California, and West Virginia. The population numbers are determinative to the number of congressional seats each state will possess in the next decade.

Cities

Jersey City, NJ: Former Governor May Return — Jim McGreevey (D), who was elected New Jersey’s governor in 2001 but who resigned because of a hiring scandal and gay love affair before the end of his first term, is contemplating making a political comeback. Apparently, a draft committee is being organized to encourage him to file for the Jersey City mayor’s post when it comes up for election next year.

In addition to being elected governor, McGreevey served as mayor of Woodbridge Township and spent six years in the New Jersey legislature. He has not run for any office since departing politics in 2004.

Sen. Cassidy Considers No Labels Party; Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment; Another Challenger to Sen. Cruz Emerges; NM-3, NY-4 News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023

President

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

No Labels Party: Sen. Cassidy Says He’ll Talk — From Sunday’s NBC interview, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) admitted that he would “talk” to the No Labels Party leaders if they approached him about becoming their presidential nominee. Sen. Cassidy also explained it would depend upon who the major parties nominate, but he intimated if we are going to see a Biden-Trump re-match he would be more inclined to run as a third-party candidate.

Sen. Cassidy is the type of candidate the No Labels Party would like to recruit. It is clear their main goal is to deny former President Donald Trump re-election, so they will be looking for a candidate who has some ability to attract suburban Republican voters away from Trump. The No Labels Party will decide who to nominate, if anyone, at their national conclave scheduled for April 14-15, 2024.

Senate

California: Gov. Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment — Some Democrats are still urging Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who is suffering from failing health, to resign her seat so that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can appoint a more able individual. Gov. Newsom now says that he will only appoint someone who will serve as a caretaker if the vacancy were to occur.

The governor said it would be unfair to give an advantage to any of the candidates currently running for the Senate if he were to appoint one of the contenders. Early rumors suggested he was leaning towards appointing US congresswoman and 2024 Senate candidate Barbara Lee (D-Oakland). She hails from Newsom’s northern California political base, but his latest statement suggests he would now go in a different direction.

Texas: Another Cruz Challenger Emerges — Back in May when Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced his Senate campaign it looked as if the Democratic leadership had the candidate they wanted to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Two months later, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) announced his candidacy, and then resigned Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez followed. Another candidate has now joined them — Dallas state Rep. Carl Sherman Sr. (D), a former local mayor and pastor.

While Rep. Allred still may top what is now becoming a crowded field, he will undoubtedly be forced to drain his campaign treasury just to win the nomination; he had raised over $6 million before the June 30 campaign finance quarterly report. Sen. Cruz will then be able to build an uncontested campaign treasury, and force all four Democratic candidates far to the left on key issues such as the Biden energy policy and the Texas-Mexico border.

House

NM-3: Ex-State Rep to Challenge Rep. Leger Fernandez — Former state Rep. Sharon Clahchischilliage (R), a member of the Navajo Nation who served three terms in the legislature before being defeated for re-election in 2018, announced that she will challenge two-term Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates New Mexico’s 3rd District as D+5, meaning we could see a competitive general election develop. In 2022, Rep. Leger Fernandez was re-elected with 58 percent of the vote, but against a Republican candidate who spent only $301,000 on her campaign.

NY-4: Democrat Withdraws — Sarah Hughes (D), who was a member of the 2002 US Olympic figure skating team and had formed a congressional exploratory committee earlier in the year to challenge Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), announced Monday that she will not pursue her candidacy. The top Democrats appear to be state Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Nassau) and ex-Hempstead town supervisor and 2022 nominee Laura Gillen (D). In the face of such competition, Hughes’ chances of winning the Democratic primary were poor; hence, the decision to end her political quest.

New York’s 4th District, at D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is likely to become the Democrats’ top conversion opportunity in the country.