Tag Archives: former president Donald Trump

Ramaswamy Rises in Polling; Rep. Slotkin Struggles for Recognition; Rep. Ilhan Omar Draws Opponent; Republican Withdraws in Ohio Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy gets a polling boost. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ramaswamy: Fourth Poll Sees Presidential Candidate Moving to Top Tier — Late last week we reported on three separate Republican primary surveys that placed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling and crossing the double digit threshold in each. Now, Emerson College arrives at a similar conclusion to those of Fox News, CBS News, and RMG Research.

Their poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), surveying the self-identified Republicans, shows former President Donald Trump again topping the field with 56 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

Senate

Michigan: New Poll; Similar Close Result: Regular Michigan media pollster EPIC-MRA went into the field to test a potential open Michigan Senate general election between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former seven-term US Congressman Mike Rogers (R). The poll (Aug. 6-11; 600 likely Michigan voters; live interview) sees Rep. Slotkin leading Rogers, 42-37 percent, which is similar to Emerson College’s Michigan poll (Aug. 1-2; 1,121 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found a 44-38 percent ballot test between the pair.

Both candidates are relatively unfamiliar to the statewide respondent sample. A total of 54 percent of poll respondents said they did not recognize Rep. Slotkin, and 72 percent responded in the same way when asked about Rogers. Rogers left office at the beginning of 2015. Slotkin was first elected to the House in 2018.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar Draws Dem Primary Challenge — Attorney and non-profit organization founder Sarah Gad (D), who overcame opioid addiction to attend law school and pass the bar, becomes the first individual to enter the 2024 Minnesota Democratic primary against controversial three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

In 2022, Rep. Omar found herself in a very tight primary campaign, outlasting former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels by just a 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin, a difference of 2,466 votes of 114,567 ballots cast. It’s likely that others, possibly including Samuels, will enter what should be another competitive Democratic primary race.

OH-13: Republican Gilbert Withdraws — Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R), who lost the open Akron anchored 13th Congressional District race to now-freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) last November, announced that she will end her abbreviated 2024 rematch campaign and will instead serve as a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.

The 13th District, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, is competitive and we can expect Republicans to again put forth a strong challenge effort. Currently in the GOP race are Greg Wheeler, who finished second in the 2022 GOP congressional primary and Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg. Former Ohio Republican Party chair and 2022 US Senate candidate Jane Timken indicates she is considering entering this contest.

Ramaswamy Advances in Polling; Romney Support Dips in Utah;
Rep. Boebert’s Colorado Challenge; Significant Candidate Lead in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 21, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Major Move in National Polls — Three new national Republican primary surveys find businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into the top tier within the large field of presidential candidates. The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview) and the Quinnipiac University national surveys (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview) project Ramaswamy as placing third behind former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The RMG Research survey finds Ramaswamy doing even better. In their latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 registered US voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 8 percent. Former President Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

Senate

Utah: Sen. Romney at 30 percent in New GOP Poll — A Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted a month ago but just released just late last week (July 7-18; 598 registered Utah voters; 301 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Utah Sen. Mitt Romney drawing only 30 percent support among a respondent sample of his own Republican primary voters.

Despite the low preference number, Sen. Romney leads a group of potential GOP opponents. Closest to him is Attorney General Sean Reyes, an unannounced Senate candidate, who posted 13 percent support. The two official candidates, state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs posted five and three percent, respectively. When asked of the entire sample whether they believe Sen. Romney should run for re-election, 39 percent answered yes, while 44 percent replied with a negative response.

House

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Republican Challenge — Saying he’s “… not interested in becoming a social media celebrity … I’m interested in helping families and helping businesses and helping communities,” attorney Jeff Hurd entered Colorado’s 3rd District Republican primary hoping to deny two-term incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) renomination. In 2022, then-state Sen. Don Coram challenged her in the party primary but received only 34 percent of the Republican vote.

Should Rep. Boebert win renomination, she will again face a difficult general election against Democrat Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating her in the 2022 general election. This, despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating CO-3 as R+15.

Governor

New Hampshire: Significant Open Primary Polling Leads — Earlier in the week, we covered an Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) that posted former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) to substantial leads over two strong Democratic contenders. Now, we see the primary numbers from this same poll.

According to Emerson, Ayotte would not only lead in the general election, but she opens a definitive edge over who will likely be her chief Republican opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The initial ballot test finds Ayotte leading Morse, 45-9 percent. On the Democratic side, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is staked to a strong 52-15 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after serving what will be four consecutive terms when his tenure expires at the beginning of 2025.

No Labels Qualifies in 10 States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 18, 2023

President

No Labels Party: Growing in Influence — The No Labels Party, under attack for not releasing their donors’ identities despite raising huge sums of money, has now qualified for the ballot in several more states.

The North Carolina Board of Elections, with four of the five members in favor of No Labels, certified them for a 2024 ballot position, becoming the tenth state to recognize the entity. North Carolina joins Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah as domains granting the minor party a ballot line.

Though the current aggregate number of qualified states represents only one fifth of the total number of states, No Labels can already have a major effect upon the presidential election outcome. Alaska, with their new Ranked Choice Voting system, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, are among the small group of swing states that will largely determine the next general election result.

While former President Donald Trump carried Alaska by double-digits in both of his elections, his percentage was only 52.8 percent in 2020 and 51.3 percent in 2016. In a state that already draws a large number of independent and minor party voters, seeing a No Labels candidate force Trump or another eventual Republican nominee below the 50 percent majority figure is a distinct possibility.

As we have seen in previous Ranked Choice Alaska elections, the Democratic candidate has a strong chance of winning in the extra rounds.

The Arizona election was decided by just 10,447 votes. Nevada came down to less than two-and-a-half percentage points, and North Carolina’s final 2020 presidential vote was decided by a margin of less than 1.5 percent.

Therefore, a prominent No Labels Party candidate could clearly tip the balance of power in these critical swing states from one candidate to the other, particularly with as high as 40 percent of the voting public identifying as Independent according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s research.

If No Labels decides to field a presidential candidate, and they will formally do so at their national party meeting in Dallas on April 14-15 next year, it is clear they will choose someone who is already well known. If they attempt to be a deciding factor, the No Labels effort stands to earn success. If they have the far-reaching goal of winning the presidential race, then this group is likely to go the way of most other small political entities that usually find themselves falling apart after a short shelf life, figuratively speaking.

There is a great deal of controversy over which of the two major candidates, assuming a Biden-Trump 2024 general election, a No Labels Party candidate would hurt the most. We are seeing in current polling that Dr. Cornel West, running on the Green Party ticket, draws about four percent vote preference, and that largely comes from President Joe Biden’s vote pool. It is doubtful that a No Labels Party candidate would garner votes in the same manner, however.

Many on the left believe such a presence on major general election ballots would hurt Biden much more than Trump. Such a theory suggests the number of detracted votes could be enough to either throw the election to the former president or send a disputed outcome where neither party candidate receives 270 electoral votes to the House of Representatives.

Looking at this bipartisan political entity’s Republican composition, it is difficult to see any Trump supporters within the group. For example, the national co-chairman, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), and one of their chief political strategists, longtime national Republican consultant Charlie Black, are closer to the Never Trump movement rather than the Trump coalition.

Therefore, to see a scenario where No Labels chooses a candidate who would take enough votes away from Biden to help Trump win the national election is unrealistic and a misinterpretation of the involved GOP personnel’s intentions.

It is far more likely that the No Labels entity will choose a candidate, if they field one at all, who takes Republican suburban votes away from Trump in places like Anchorage, Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Raleigh. Therefore, their ultimate candidate selection is much more likely to help the current president rather than the former.

Unusual NH Presidential Poll; Republican Primary Developing in Montana; VA-7 Candidates Coming Forward; NH Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 17, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: New Poll; Unique Info — The new Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) provides new information not seen in any other similar study.

For example, the results find:

  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into second place
  • No candidate but former President Donald Trump landing in double digits
  • Cornel West’s influence level is confirmed at four percent, which appears to come from President Joe Biden’s vote pool
  • Businessman Perry Johnson attracting enough support to be recorded on a poll
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence flirting with last place

It remains to be seen if this survey is an outlier, or if new trends are forming.

House

MT-2: Republican Primary Developing — We reported that Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Now we see State Auditor Troy Downing (R) doing the same.

Both qualify that their interest in the 2nd District seat is present only if Rep. Rosendale foregoes re-election and formally enters the Senate race. Downing has run for Congress before. He entered the 2018 US Senate primary and placed third with 19.1 percent of the vote. Rosendale won the nomination with 33.8 percent, and then lost 50-47 percent to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the associated general election.

VA-7: GOP Candidates Coming Forward — Political speculation suggesting that Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) will not seek re-election in order to prepare for a 2025 open governor’s race has already encouraged potential Republican candidates to come forward. Several are now testing the political waters for a 2024 run in the politically marginal 7th Congressional District.

Two military veterans — retired Navy SEAL and defense contractor Cameron Hamilton and Iraq War veteran Jon Myers, a retired Marine Corps officer — have both filed congressional campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission. Business consultant Bill Moher and Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley are previously announced Republican candidates.

Should Rep. Spanberger retire, we can expect a very crowded Republican and Democratic primary season. Republicans will likely hold either a nominating convention or what they term as a “firehouse primary” (where only a few polling places are open throughout the sprawling district), while Democrats typically hold a traditional primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-7 as a highly competitive D+2.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in Early Poll — Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is starting her campaign for governor with a lead according to a new Emerson College poll (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online). According to the results, Ayotte would lead Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 46-37 percent, and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by a larger 47-34 percent span.

The poll did not test the Republican primary. At this point, former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is opposing Ayotte for the Republican nomination and others are expected to enter. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.

Biden’s Summer Doldrums

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Biden: Downward Trend — It’s the middle of summer, and President Joe Biden apparently has entered a downward trend, at least as far as some key polls are concerned.

The Premise research organization tracks the presidential race every two weeks, and their latest release finds Biden falling behind former President Donald Trump, even on their nationwide ballot test.

The survey (Aug. 2-7; 1,726 US adults; 1,306 self-identified registered voters; via the Premise “smartphone application”; weighted) gives Trump a seven-point lead, 41-34 percent, within the entire adult sampling universe, and 42-38 percent among the self-identified registered voters. The troubling part of this survey from the Biden campaign’s perspective is not so much trailing Trump but posting support numbers only in the 30s – this, for an incumbent president with 100 percent name identification.

Overall, the sampling universe is very pessimistic. The group breaks 17:68 percent on the right direction/wrong track question, President Biden’s job approval is 30:59 percent positive to negative, and 82 percent rates the US economy as either fair or poor. Among Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents, 55 percent believe that the president should not run for re-election.

This poll isn’t the only one that detects Biden losing political luster. The Morning Consult tracking survey (Aug. 4-6; 6,000 US registered voters; online) finds Biden leading Trump on the national ballot test, but only by one percentage point, a very low number for these tracks that generally post Biden to stronger numbers.

In Michigan, Emerson College’s latest survey (Aug. 1-2; 1,121 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Trump forging a 43-41-4 percent lead with Dr. Cornel West on the ballot as the Green Party candidate.

Emerson’s Arizona poll (Aug. 2-4; 1,337 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Trump holding a one point lead, again with Dr. West attracting four percent support.

Returning to the Premise poll, the data also finds the majority believing that he will continue his campaign even if convicted and sentenced to prison. A total of 70 percent of the respondent sample, led by a 79:21 percent split among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, believe he would continue the race.

The legal situation would change voter sentiment only if the former chief executive were actually in prison at the time of the election. Here, only 39 percent said they would support him if he were in prison, while 52 percent said they would not. This, even though a majority of the sample (53 percent) believes he is guilty of the charged crimes.

Looking at the length of time the entire court process consumes, including appealing all the way to the Supreme Court if convicted, it is highly unlikely that Trump would enter prison before the election. It is probable that even the trials would be delayed until after the general election is held.

There is increased speculation that for some reason President Biden will end his campaign and the Democrats will be forced to find a new nominee. While this scenario is highly unlikely, the Premise pollsters asked the question as to who the self-identified Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents would support.

While most believe that California Gov. Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings, he doesn’t fare particularly well within this national polling sample. According to the Premise results, it is Vice President Kamala Harris who tops the field with 21 percent support. Gov. Newsom falls to fourth place with only 10 percent backing, and just ahead of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who posts seven percent.

The second- and third-place finishers are unlikely candidates. This sample would choose former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton second at a 15 percent support level with two-time presidential candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, just behind at 14 percent.

Obviously, polling more than a year before the election and five months ahead of the first primary vote means very little. The numbers vary virtually by the day, but these latest figures do show a significant trend change. Whether this becomes an entrenched pattern remains to be seen.

No Labels Party:
Qualifies in Two More States

No Labels Party website image

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023

President

No Labels: Making Inroads — The No Labels Party, which is attempting to bring ideological moderates from the two major parties and the self-identified independent voter under one entity, has qualified for the ballot in two more states.

Nevada and South Dakota will now feature a No Labels Party ballot line, joining Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. While the number of qualified states is small in relation to the whole country, three of these six states are key swing entities that could well affect the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign.

Let’s look at one particular poll that exemplifies how a minor candidate can influence a hotly contested election. A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan electorate (Aug. 1-2), for example, finds President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point. When Green Party candidate Cornel West’s name is added to the questionnaire, Trump takes a two point lead over Biden because West draws four percent support.

The Michigan example will be similar in the states where the presidential election is extremely close. In this case, Dr. West’s presence draws enough left-of-center Michigan voters away from President Biden that would allow former President Trump to take the lead. We would likely see a reversed outcome if the minor party candidate were prone to attract suburban Republican votes.

The No Labels Party is different than others we have seen over the years in that they are well financed and have a national organization. Therefore, the ability to qualify for the ballot in a maximum number of states is greater than any other minor party — including the Green Party — of which Dr. West will be the likely nominee.

Looking at the composition of the No Labels Republican leadership — should they file a presidential candidate (the leaders have not yet committed to doing so) it will be someone more likely to take votes away from Trump rather than Biden. Therefore, when the party leaders and activists from around the country meet in Dallas on April 14-15, it is probable they will choose a disaffected Republican for the presidential slot and a disaffected Democrat as the running mate … if they even decide to file a national candidate slate.

The organization’s co-chairmen, former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and ex-Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), have said on multiple occasions that they want a ticket comprised of a member from each major party, but again without firmly committing to fielding a presidential ticket.

Turning to the No Labels qualified states, Arizona and Nevada are two of the five entities where flipping from Biden in 2020 to the Republican nominee in 2024 could change the national outcome.

A surprising state that could be in play next year is Alaska. The Last Frontier state changed its election system in the last election and added a Ranked Choice Voting system should no candidate secure majority support.

The addition of a No Labels candidate could make the above scenario real. In the 2020 Alaska special congressional election, Republican candidates cumulatively drew 60 percent of the vote; yet, when RCV went into effect because no one reached 50 percent, a Democratic candidate won the election. Therefore, Alaska should be added to the watch list of swing states that could move toward the Democrats.

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are two of the larger states in the swing category. Pennsylvania went Democratic in 2020, while North Carolina backed the Republican nominee. Both states require a defined number of valid registered voter petition signatures for a candidate under a different party banner to earn a ballot position.

Wisconsin, another state that swung the Democrats’ way but which could certainly rebound in 2024, employs the same requirements for minor party candidates as they do for Republicans and Democrats. Therefore, No Labels would have a strong chance of qualifying in this important swing domain as well.

Should key minor party candidates qualify in each of these aforementioned states – how each break will be critical in determining the 2024 presidential winner – the number of votes they attract, and from which candidate they draw, will be a major factor in how the election turns not only in these particular states but in the nation as a whole.

Ramaswamy Claims 2nd Place in New Poll; Testing the Waters in Virginia; Brown With Big Lead in Ohio; Houston Mayoral Poll Released

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ohio: Ramaswamy Claims 2nd Place in New Poll — Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy released a new survey of the Buckeye State electorate (July 17-26; 67 registered Ohio voters) and found businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been climbing in recent Republican presidential polls, moving into second place behind former president Donald Trump with 12 percent support, ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who posted only 9 percent. Trump recorded a whopping 64 percent backing.

Since the poll has only 675 total respondents, the unpublished Republican primary sample would be very low. Therefore, the error factor will be quite high. Still, Ramaswamy moving to second place in any survey is affirmation that his campaign is building upward momentum.

House

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger Testing Gov Waters — Reports are surfacing that three-term Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial run in 2025 when incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will be ineligible to seek re-election. Virginia is the only state in the Union that limits its governors to one four-year term. Apparently, she is also considering not seeking re-election to the House in 2024 to conserve resources for the gubernatorial run.

If she does decide to run for governor, leaving the House makes political sense. Her 7th District is politically marginal, and the seat has been reconfigured to the point that her Glen Allen political base is nowhere even close to the 7th CD lines, which is now a district that comes as far north as Prince William County.

Additionally, with Virginia’s more open campaign finance law her ability to transfer funds from her congressional committee to a gubernatorial committee is very favorable. After the 2nd Quarter financial disclosure period closed, Rep. Spanberger reported $1.184 million cash-on-hand.

Senate

Ohio: Sen. Brown Posts Bigger Lead — The aforementioned Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy poll (July 17-26; 675 registered Ohio voters) also tested the important Ohio US Senate race. In this instance, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), contrary to previous studies that showed a very tight race, opens a substantial lead over the Republican field.

In this survey, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) fares slightly better than the rest of the GOP contenders, but is still down double-digits, 45-33 percent. Opposite Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), Sen. Brown’s advantage is a similar 45-32 percent. If businessman Bernie Moreno were the GOP nominee, Sen. Brown would begin with a 45-28 percent lead.

This poll is inconsistent in that the Republican support figure is very low against Sen. Brown while the presidential numbers place the GOP candidates in much better standing against President Joe Biden. The numbers are consistent with Sen. Brown’s support figure, however, when compared to previous surveys. In all published data, Sen. Brown lands in the mid-40s and not particularly close to the 50 percent majority figure.

Cities

Houston: New Mayoral Poll Released — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey of their city’s open mayoral race (July 12-20; 800 likely Houston voters) and found state Sen. John Whitmire (D), who has been in the state legislature since 1973, and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) breaking away from the remaining candidates.

The UoH poll found Sen. Whitmire posting a 34-32 percent edge over Rep. Jackson Lee, with the next closest candidate only at the three percent mark. If no candidate receives majority support in the Nov. 7 nonpartisan election, the two front runners will advance to a runoff on a date scheduled after the initial election, likely for mid-December. Testing a runoff between Sen. Whitmire and Rep. Jackson Lee, the pollsters find the former developing a strong 51-33 percent advantage. Jackson Lee would have to relinquish her US House seat only if she wins the 2023 municipal election.