Tag Archives: Never Trump

No Labels Qualifies in 10 States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 18, 2023

President

No Labels Party: Growing in Influence — The No Labels Party, under attack for not releasing their donors’ identities despite raising huge sums of money, has now qualified for the ballot in several more states.

The North Carolina Board of Elections, with four of the five members in favor of No Labels, certified them for a 2024 ballot position, becoming the tenth state to recognize the entity. North Carolina joins Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah as domains granting the minor party a ballot line.

Though the current aggregate number of qualified states represents only one fifth of the total number of states, No Labels can already have a major effect upon the presidential election outcome. Alaska, with their new Ranked Choice Voting system, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, are among the small group of swing states that will largely determine the next general election result.

While former President Donald Trump carried Alaska by double-digits in both of his elections, his percentage was only 52.8 percent in 2020 and 51.3 percent in 2016. In a state that already draws a large number of independent and minor party voters, seeing a No Labels candidate force Trump or another eventual Republican nominee below the 50 percent majority figure is a distinct possibility.

As we have seen in previous Ranked Choice Alaska elections, the Democratic candidate has a strong chance of winning in the extra rounds.

The Arizona election was decided by just 10,447 votes. Nevada came down to less than two-and-a-half percentage points, and North Carolina’s final 2020 presidential vote was decided by a margin of less than 1.5 percent.

Therefore, a prominent No Labels Party candidate could clearly tip the balance of power in these critical swing states from one candidate to the other, particularly with as high as 40 percent of the voting public identifying as Independent according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s research.

If No Labels decides to field a presidential candidate, and they will formally do so at their national party meeting in Dallas on April 14-15 next year, it is clear they will choose someone who is already well known. If they attempt to be a deciding factor, the No Labels effort stands to earn success. If they have the far-reaching goal of winning the presidential race, then this group is likely to go the way of most other small political entities that usually find themselves falling apart after a short shelf life, figuratively speaking.

There is a great deal of controversy over which of the two major candidates, assuming a Biden-Trump 2024 general election, a No Labels Party candidate would hurt the most. We are seeing in current polling that Dr. Cornel West, running on the Green Party ticket, draws about four percent vote preference, and that largely comes from President Joe Biden’s vote pool. It is doubtful that a No Labels Party candidate would garner votes in the same manner, however.

Many on the left believe such a presence on major general election ballots would hurt Biden much more than Trump. Such a theory suggests the number of detracted votes could be enough to either throw the election to the former president or send a disputed outcome where neither party candidate receives 270 electoral votes to the House of Representatives.

Looking at this bipartisan political entity’s Republican composition, it is difficult to see any Trump supporters within the group. For example, the national co-chairman, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), and one of their chief political strategists, longtime national Republican consultant Charlie Black, are closer to the Never Trump movement rather than the Trump coalition.

Therefore, to see a scenario where No Labels chooses a candidate who would take enough votes away from Biden to help Trump win the national election is unrealistic and a misinterpretation of the involved GOP personnel’s intentions.

It is far more likely that the No Labels entity will choose a candidate, if they field one at all, who takes Republican suburban votes away from Trump in places like Anchorage, Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Raleigh. Therefore, their ultimate candidate selection is much more likely to help the current president rather than the former.

Obstacles Overcome;
New Polls Again Close

By Jim Ellis

July 20, 2016 — A final last-gasp effort at denying Donald Trump the Republican nomination was easily slapped down the other day. The Never Trump forces were dealt a crushing loss last week in the Convention Rules Committee (only hitting the 20 percent mark in one vote), but returned to make a move against adopting the rules on the convention floor. This motion, too, was easily defeated on a voice vote.

The Never Trump group was never large enough to become a major threat, and went the way of all such challenges when supported by only a small minority. Therefore, the delegates will nominate Donald Trump and Mike Pence on Wednesday night, with the presidential acceptance speech on Thursday night in accordance with normal national convention procedure.

Midwest Polls

CBS/YouGov has conducted panel back Internet-based surveys of more than 24,017 registered voters in 19 states since September 2015. The July 15-16 edition covered voters in the swing Midwestern domains of Iowa (998 previously questioned registered voters), Michigan (1,201 PQRVs), and Ohio (1,104 PQRVs).

Once again, we continue to see data producing very tight margins in the swing states and the CBS/YouGov data is no exception. Michigan is normally not a politically marginal state in presidential elections, going for the Democratic nominee in the last six national campaigns, but voters have elected Republican governors, a majority of the congressional delegation, and given the GOP substantial advantages in both houses of the state legislature in several elections during this same time period.

The new CBS/YouGov data finds Trump leading Hillary Clinton 40-39 percent in Iowa, but trailing 39-42 percent, and 40-44 percent in Michigan and Ohio, respectively. All of these numbers suggest virtual ties between the two candidates because the results fall within the polling margin of error.

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A Contested Convention After All?

By Jim Ellis

June 27, 2016 — There is clear evidence that “Never Trump” Republican national delegates are organizing an effort to force a national convention rules change and, in effect, fully open the floor proceedings when all delegations gather in Cleveland.

The movement received a shot in the arm earlier in the week when Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus appointed former US Rep. Enid Greene Mickelsen (R-UT) as chair of the national convention rules committee, and veteran RNC committeeman and former White House staff member Ron Kaufman (R-MA) as her co-chair. In doing so, Priebus by-passed the current RNC eules committee chairman, Arizona committeeman Bruce Ash, who is a strong proponent for keeping the rules consistent.

That’s not to say that Mickelsen and Kaufman would be sympathetic to opening the convention, but it was clear that Ash is hostile to the idea. In media interviews, Ash repeatedly stated that Donald Trump has abided by all party rules and fairly won the nomination through his particular strength in primaries. Trump has amassed more votes than any Republican candidate in history, meaning his presidential nomination is clearly legitimate. Ash further indicated that the GOP delegates, including himself, represent the Republican voters of their states, and they have clearly selected Trump.

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