Tag Archives: Florida

South Carolina Primary Challenge; Utah Senate Candidates Post-Romney; Manchin Contemplating Party Exit; Census Estimates Released; Former NJ Governor May Return

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 18, 2023

Senate

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina: Budding 2026 Primary Challenge — US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the 2026 Republican primary. Rep. Norman, elected in a 2017 special election after winning six terms in the state House of Representatives, is a leader in the House Freedom Caucus. If he does run, he will oppose Sen. Graham from the party’s right flank.

Utah: AG Won’t Run — Immediately after Sen. Mitt Romney (R) announced he will not run for re-election, speculation about who might enter the race began running rampant. The two who appear as sure candidates are state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R). One individual who rather surprisingly has already taken himself out of the Senate race is Attorney General Sean Reyes, who at one time was thought to become a Romney primary challenger. Late last week, Reyes said he will run for re-election as attorney general, thus bypassing the open Senate race.

West Virginia: Manchin Contemplating Party Exit — Reportedly, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who has not yet decided whether to seek re-election, make a third party run for president, or retire from politics, is also contemplating leaving the Democratic Party. Therefore, if he does run for office again a strong possibility exists that he will do so as an Independent.

Sen. Manchin faces a difficult re-election run as the West Virginia Democratic Party’s status has weakened considerably since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The senator was originally elected in a 2010 special election. He has served as West Virginia’s governor, secretary of state, and in both houses of the state legislature, all as a Democrat. West Virginia continues to be rated as the Republican’s top conversion Senate opportunity. Both Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) are competing for the Republican nomination.

States

Census: Estimates Released — The Census Bureau has released new population growth statistics for the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The fastest growing states for the period ending July 1, 2022, are Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The states losing the most population are New York, Louisiana, Illinois, California, and West Virginia. The population numbers are determinative to the number of congressional seats each state will possess in the next decade.

Cities

Jersey City, NJ: Former Governor May Return — Jim McGreevey (D), who was elected New Jersey’s governor in 2001 but who resigned because of a hiring scandal and gay love affair before the end of his first term, is contemplating making a political comeback. Apparently, a draft committee is being organized to encourage him to file for the Jersey City mayor’s post when it comes up for election next year.

In addition to being elected governor, McGreevey served as mayor of Woodbridge Township and spent six years in the New Jersey legislature. He has not run for any office since departing politics in 2004.

Justice Still Leading Manchin; Florida Redistricting News; Reeves Rebounds in New Poll; Capito Leading in GOP West Virginia Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023

Senate

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) trailing in poll.

West Virginia: Poll: Justice Still Leading Manchin — Research America conducted a survey for MetroNews West Virginia that was presented at the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce meeting (Aug. 16-26; 402 registered West Virginia voters; oversample of 337 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) just before the Labor Day break commenced.

The results again find Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a healthy lead over incumbent Joe Manchin (D) in the Senate ballot test. A majority of 51 percent favors Gov. Justice versus just 38 percent who would vote to re-elect Sen. Manchin. If, however, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to defeat the governor in the Republican Senate primary, he would trail Sen. Manchin 45-41 percent in their hypothetical general election pairing.

In the Republican primary, though from a small polling sample (337 respondents), Gov. Justice would hold a substantial 58-26 percent advantage over Congressman Mooney.

The West Virginia Senate race continues to be the top Republican conversion target in the country. Though Sen. Manchin’s approval rating in the state has improved to 51:34 percent favorable to unfavorable according to this survey, a plurality of 40 percent would still like to see him retire as compared to 36 percent who believe he should run for re-election. A total of 24 percent said they feel he should run as a minor party candidate for president.

House

Florida Redistricting: Local Circuit Judge Strikes Down Cong Map — The Sunshine State congressional plan that elected 20 Republicans and only eight Democrats in 2022 has been declared unconstitutional. A Lee County state judge rendered the ruling, tying the map to the recently decided US Supreme Court decision pertaining to the Alabama racial gerrymandering case.

The crux of the disqualification was the elimination of then-Rep. Al Lawson’s (D-Tallahassee) 5th District that stretched all the way from Tallahassee to Jacksonville in order to create a majority minority district. The Republicans, citing the communities of interest argument changed the north Florida configuration into a more compact draw.

The state will likely appeal this ruling. Doing so will mean the final decision on this issue will eventually lie with the Florida Supreme Court justices. Whether a new map will be drawn before the 2024 election is unclear at this point.

Guiding the decision through the state’s appellate system may require a longer period than what remains in the current election cycle, even when considering Florida’s late primary (Aug. 20, 2024) and candidate filing deadline (April 26, 2024).

Governor

Mississippi: Gov. Reeves Rebounds in New Poll — Last week, we reported upon an Impact Research poll conducted for Democrat Brandon Presley’s gubernatorial campaign, which projected that he and Gov. Tate Reeves (R) have fallen into a 46-46 percent tie. Expected was a quick counter poll, and now we have seen such a survey. Siena College, polling for the Mississippi Today news site (Aug. 20-28; 650 likely Mississippi voters; live interview), reported their finding and, contrary to the Impact Research data, suggests that Gov. Reeves holds a 52-41 percent lead over Presley. The Mississippi gubernatorial election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

West Virginia: Poll: Capito Leading GOP Primary — The Research America survey for MetroNews West Virginia that posted Gov. Jim Justice (R) to a 51-38 percent advantage over Sen. Joe Manchin (D), also tested the open Republican gubernatorial primary. Gov. Justice is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position.

The Research America results are very different from a National Research survey conducted back in early March. At that time, the NR data found Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the Republican field with 28 percent support. State Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), was second with 15 percent.

The new data finds the candidates transposed into an inverted order. Capito has now assumed the lead with 32 percent backing while AG Morrisey has slipped to 23 percent. No other contender even reaches the 10 percent threshold. The West Virginia primary is slated for May 14, 2024.

Florida Poll: Trump Cruising

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 28, 2023

President

This booking photo provided by Fulton County, Georgia Sheriff’s Office of former President Donald Trump was taken Thursday, Aug. 24 as he was booked at the county jail. He surrendered to face charges of trying to steal the 2020 election in Georgia.

Florida Poll: Trump Cruising — The Victory Polling organization surveyed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida’s electorate (Aug. 21-23; 590 likely Florida Republican primary voters) and delivered bad news for the host politician. The Victory results find former President Donald Trump holding a commanding Sunshine State lead of 59-23 percent over Gov. DeSantis with no other candidate even reaching five percent support. The former president now lives in Florida, having filed a “declaration of domicile” that declared his Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach as his permanent residence in 2019. It will be curious to see if Gov. DeSantis’ strong debate performance begins to change some voters’ allegiance.

Pennsylvania Poll: Getting Closer — Franklin & Marshall College, a Lancaster, PA institution that regularly polls the Keystone State, released their new small-sample Republican statewide survey (Aug. 9-20; 723 PA registered voters; 297 Republican primary voters; live interview) and the results show a tightening presidential field when compared with most other states. While former President Trump still leads the group, his margin is becoming somewhat smaller. The F&M numbers find him commanding 39 percent support as compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 21 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is third with nine percent, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) pulls six percent, and no other candidate exceeds the five percent threshold.

House

RI-1: Lead Change in New Poll — Apparently, the controversy over Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos’ petition signatures has taken a toll on her approval rating. The previous polling leader has slipped to an upside-down favorability index of 29:44 percent positive to negative. A new Blueprint Polling survey (Aug. 15-17; 451 definite and probable RI-1 special election voters), the source of the Matos approval rating data, finds former state representative and 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Aaron Regunberg now leading the large field of 12 candidates vying for the all-important Democratic primary in this district.

Regunberg tops former Obama and Biden White House aide Gabe Amo, 28-19 percent. Lt. Gov. Matos drops to a virtual tie for third place with state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) with 11 percent apiece. The special primary is scheduled for Sept. 5. Former Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned in June. Winning the Democratic primary here is tantamount to clinching the Nov. 7 special general.

Governor

Louisiana: Landry, Wilson Look to Advance — Louisiana voters will choose a new governor later this year, and a new Faucheux Associates poll conducted for the Advocate online publication, the Urban League of Louisiana, the Public Affairs Research Council of Baton Rouge, and three Louisiana television stations (Aug. 14-19; 800 likely Louisiana voters; live interview) finds Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and former LA Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) developing strong leads to capture the two runoff positions from the upcoming Oct. 14 jungle primary.

Landry attracts 36 percent support as compared to Wilson’s 26 percent. The two are far ahead of the other five candidates, none of whom even reach eight percent support. Should no candidate receive majority support in the Oct. 14 primary, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 18 runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Retiring Judge May Enter Gov Race — North Carolina state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan (D) announced that he will resign his seat 16 months prior to his term expiring. Justice Morgan had already said he would not seek another eight-year term on the high court largely because the state imposed age limit on judges would only allow him to serve only half of the next term. No North Carolina judge may serve past the age of 72.

It is now likely that the early resignation means Justice Morgan will enter the Democratic primary for governor and oppose Attorney General Josh Stein, who so far is unchallenged for the party nomination. A Morgan candidacy would create a seriously contested Democratic primary. Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is purportedly the leading GOP candidate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term in the 2024 election.

Senate Primaries Forming – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 11, 2023

Senate

Senate Races: Balance of Power — The 2024 US Senate races are critical in determining which party will control the chamber in the next Congress, but before Republicans mount a challenge to the Democratic majority they must first navigate through what, in some cases, could be contentious primaries.

The Democrats have only one legitimate challenge opportunity within the field of 11 Republican defense states — Texas — but here as well, they feature a competitive battle for the party nomination. They are also likely headed to a rousing year-long double-Democratic jungle primary and general election in California and a hotly contested open intra-party battle in Maryland.

The following is a brief synopsis of the primary situations in the states alphabetically from Arizona through Montana. Next, we will cover Nevada through Wisconsin:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

• Arizona: In this wild-card Senate race that will feature a three-way general election, two of the entries appear set. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) has not yet officially announced that she will seek re-election, but all indications are that she will mount a vigorous campaign. The question remains as to whether she will run as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party, such as the No Labels Party, which has qualified in her state. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears as a lock to win the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, reports are surfacing the 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is close to announcing her Senate effort. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already a declared candidate. Early polling suggests that Lake would begin with a significant primary lead.

Though most Republican strategists blanch at another Lake run, it is important to remember that she received 49.6 percent of the vote in the governor’s race. In the three-way Senate contest, 35-38 percent is likely all that’s necessary to win and she has strong base support. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

• California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is retiring, and in her wake is a major political battle among three progressive left Democratic House members, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). The big question coming from the jungle primary is whether a Republican, coalescing the minority party votes, can capture one of the two general election finalist positions because the Democratic vote will be so badly fractured.

Chances are Reps. Schiff and Porter, probably in that order, advance into what promises to be a contentious and very expensive open US Senate general election campaign. The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5.

• Florida: Democrats have yet to find a credible opponent for Sen. Rick Scott (R), but he does have Republican opposition. Businessman Keith Gross, who reportedly has the wherewithal to fund his own campaign but has yet to make a substantial investment, is challenging Sen. Scott for renomination.

Gross may be able to wage a battle against the senator but toppling him for the nomination appears as a bridge too far. Sen. Scott appears in good shape for renomination and re-election. The Florida primary is late, Aug. 20, 2024, so much time remains for a primary contest to take shape.

• Indiana: Sen. Mike Braun (R) is leaving the Senate to run for governor, and Congressman Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) appears to be the prohibitive favorite to succeed him in both the Republican primary and general election. At this point, no strong Republican has emerged, but that could change as we get closer to the Feb. 9, 2024, candidate filing deadline. The Indiana primary is scheduled for May 7, 2024.
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Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

First Democrat Announces in Florida Senate Race; Potential NC-13 Candidate; Landry’s Advantage in Louisiana; Ashcroft Down on Money

By Jim Ellis — July 20, 2023

Senate

Navy veteran Phil Ehr

Florida: First Democrat Announces — Democrats have not yet recruited a top candidate to challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R), but at least they now have a contender coming forward. Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who challenged Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) in 2020 and lost 65-34 percent, is now a US Senate candidate. While losing, Ehr did raise over $2 million, but he will need substantially more even to win the Democratic primary.

The only other challenger to Sen. Scott, who was also twice elected governor, is Republican businessman Keith Gross. It was believed that Gross could fund a significant portion of his campaign, and so far he has added $661,000 to his political treasury. Outside of his personal loan, Gross only raised $9,000 during the 2nd Quarter fundraising period. At this point, Sen. Scott is a clear favorite for renomination and re-election.

House

NC-13: New Potential GOP Candidate — State legislative analyst Jeff Hauser (R) says he is interested in exploring a congressional candidacy next year in the district that freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) currently holds. Expect this seat to significantly change once the new congressional map is drawn and passes the state legislature. With the new Republican state Supreme Court likely to approve the eventual map, expect this district to become much better territory for the GOP.

Bo Hines (R), who lost in November to Nickel 52-48 percent, is said to be considering mounting a comeback. He proved, however, to be a weak candidate so look for the GOP leadership to look in a different direction once the new map is presented and approved.

Governor

Louisiana: Landry Opens Huge Dollar Advantage — On Monday, we reported that a BDPC consulting firm poll (July 6-10; 600 registered Louisiana voters; live interview) found a close ballot test result of 30-28 percent between Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and former LA Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D). The new fundraising disclosure reports show a much different picture of this developing statewide campaign.

During the 2nd Quarter, Landry raised $4.7 million and has over $9.2 million cash-on-hand. Conversely, Wilson raised only $560,000 and reports $590,000 in the bank. The closest contender to Landry is state Treasurer John Schroder (R). While raising only $220,000 for the quarter, the Schroder campaign reports $2.2 million in their campaign account. Louisiana’s all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14 of this year. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on Nov. 18.

Missouri: Ashcroft Down on Money — While Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, son of former Missouri Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, is viewed to be the leader of the open gubernatorial Republican primary, the 2nd Quarter fundraising reports show him on the downside of the money count. In a battle of supportive PACs, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe’s affiliated American Dream PAC raised $1.2 million as compared to the Committee for Liberty’s (Ashcroft) $290,000. St. Charles County state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring), who has not yet officially announce for governor, saw his leadership committee, BILL PAC, raise over $800,000.

GOP Gov. Mike Parson is ineligible to run for a third term. State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield) is the leading Democratic contender. Republicans are favored to win the open general election.

Hispanics: A New Political Wild Card

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

Electorate

Mayra Flores

Hispanics: Swing Demographic — A new nationwide poll suggests the Hispanic community is now becoming much more of a swing demographic than its previous status as a homogenic Democratic voting bloc. While the Democrats still maintain majority support within Latino communities throughout the country, their margins are beginning to wane.

The Ipsos polling firm partnering with the Axios news service and Noticias Telemundo conducted an online nationwide poll of 1,116 Latino adults and registered voters over the June 2-9 period. Possibly the most surprising response is that a respondent plurality of 32 percent believes that neither party cares about them. A total of 30 percent say the Democrats care more about them, 11 percent believe Republicans do, another 11 percent say both do, and 15 percent did not respond for various reasons.

The Ipsos/Telemundo polling analysis further says that the Hispanic numbers are down considerably for Democrats when compared to historical trends. The study compares the 60 percent of the vote Latinos delivered for Democrats in 2022 to Presidents John F. Kennedy receiving 90 percent of the Latino vote in 1960, and Jimmy Carter attracting 82 percent Hispanic support in 1976. In 2022, Republicans garnered 39 percent of the Hispanic vote, which is a significant increase. Any time the Republicans reach 36 percent in this demographic category they are exceeding their national vote goal.

The analysis also points out that non-partisan Hispanic voters are outpacing those who choose a political party affiliation in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. They are not alone, however, as the population at-large appears to be moving more toward Independent or non-affiliated political party status in most places but particularly the aforementioned.

The analysis also illustrates the fact that Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country, making them even more valuable as a voting center. The analysts quote US Census figures indicating that the entire US Latino population now exceeds 62 million, which is a whopping 23 percent growth factor in the decade ending in April of 2020.

The analysis also says that while Hispanics are gravitating more toward Republicans in Florida, they are still strongly Democratic in California and holding their own for Democrats in Texas. The analysts suggest, however, that Republicans under-performed among Hispanics in Texas, saying Democrats were able to hold “statewide and district” victories in critical places because of Hispanic loyalty.

The Texas analysis is flawed, however. There were 12 statewide races in the Lone Star on the 2022 ballot, including contests for state Supreme Court and the Court of Criminal Appeals. Republicans won all 12 with a very consistent voting pattern. GOP victories in the statewide contests ranged from just beyond 53 percent to just over 57 percent, while the Democrats consistently fell between 41 and 44 percent. These are typical Texas electoral results.

The one race they claim flipped to the Democrats in Hispanic South Texas was GOP Rep. Mayra Flores’ loss. The analysts did not complete their research. The contest Flores won in a 2022 special election was in a different district than her regular 2022 election campaign because of redistricting.

In the original 34th District, the FiveThirtyEight data organization found a partisan swing of D+5. In the new 34th, where she was paired with Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, the Democrats gained 12 points on the same partisan lean scale to arrive at a D+17 figure. The final vote tally in favor of Rep. Gonzalez was 53-44 percent, which is in line with the traditional partisan voting pattern for such a district.

The Hispanic Republican swing in South Texas, however, is quite real. Of the five congressional districts that touch the Mexican border, Republicans now control two, and the third Democratic seat, the 28th District, is Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) domain. He is generally regarded as the most conservative Democrat remaining in the House.

The overall premise of the Ipsos/Telemundo poll is that a much larger portion of the Hispanic vote is now more open to both parties. This development is an opportunity for Republicans, but it remains to be seen if the party can craft a series of messages that will convince a larger number of Hispanics to vote their way.

Together with the Asian population, Hispanics represent a Republican opportunity group that the party needs to offset its poor standing among suburban women and college educated voters, a latter trend that only seems to widen. If the GOP is successful in attracting more Latinos and Asians, 2024 could prove to be a watershed political realignment year.