Category Archives: Senate

Surprising Wisconsin Presidential Poll, Yet Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead & Close WI House Race; Sheehy Leading in Latest Montana Survey; Good’s Virginia Recount Timetable

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 2, 2024

President

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Yields Surprising Responses — Marquette University Law School released their quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and found some seemingly inconsistent answers particularly relating to former President Donald Trump’s New York conviction.

Marquette poll yields surprising results. (Click here or on image above to see: Marquette University Law School’s released quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll)

On the presidential ballot test question, the registered voter sample broke 50-50 percent between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump when undecideds were pushed, and 44-44 percent on the initial question. Among those respondents considering themselves definite or likely voters, Biden held a 51-49 percent edge when respondents were pushed. When the independent and minor party candidates were added to the questionnaire, Trump went ahead 43-40 percent.

Perhaps most noteworthy, in responding to the question regarding Trump’s conviction, by a 54-28 percent margin, independents believe the former president is guilty of the charges. Yet, on the ballot test question, independents still broke for Trump 57-41 percent. This means that many of the Wisconsin respondents who believe Trump was guilty are still willing to vote for him in the general election.

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leading in Latest Survey — Largely confirming the previously published Emerson College poll, a new survey again shows former President Trump with a huge Montana lead and GOP US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy far behind the top of the ticket but still within a position to win. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (June 3-5; 500 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sheehy pulling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) with a 46-43-4 percent lead. The ballot test included Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, but not Green Party nominee Robert Barb. Both are expected to be on the general election ballot.

In a straight Tester-Sheehy head-to-head result, the two men are tied at 48 percent apiece, but 41 of Sheehy’s 48 percent say they are definitely voting for him versus only 35 percent of Sen. Tester’s contingent who say likewise.

Former President Trump leads President Biden by a whopping 54-36 percent. The generic question, i.e., “would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for senator,” breaks 52-40 percent in favor of the Republican.

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead in Regular Poll — As stated in the presidential section above, the Marquette Law School released their regular quarterly poll of the Wisconsin electorate (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and in the Senate race again finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Republican Eric Hovde by a 52-47 percent count when the undecided respondents were prompted to make a choice. On the initial question, Sen. Baldwin led 45-38 percent with 17 percent indicating they are undecided.

House

WI-3: Looming Close Race — The GQR survey research firm went into the field over the June 10-16 period (400 likely WI-3 general election voters; live interview) and finds western Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) holding only a small lead over small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D). The ballot test favors the freshman congressman by just a 50-46 percent margin. Van Orden’s favorability index, however, is barely positive at 41:40 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District is anchored in the city of La Crosse and spans through all or part of 19 western counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a virtually even partisan lean. Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 51.5 – 46.8 percent victory margin despite losing the statewide count. Prior to Van Orden converting this seat to the Republican column in 2022, Democrat Ron Kind represented the district for 26 years.

VA-5: Rep. Good’s Recount Timetable — Local news reports are confirming that Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) will request and pay for a recount of the June 18 primary results that find him trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) by 374 votes according to the Virginia Board of Elections official count. The certification deadline is July 2 — today. After certification, a candidate can request a recount.

Though a 374-vote difference is not large — it translates into six tenths of a percentage point from a turnout of 62,792 votes — it is unlikely that a recount will change the final totals by such an amount. Rep. Good is also challenging the handling of ballots in the city of Lynchburg, a locality where the congressman won. Lynchburg election officials say the Good challenge would affect less than 10 ballots, even if his argument is proven correct.

Significant Lead for Alsobrooks in Maryland; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Cori Bush in Dead Heat; Another Dead Heat in WA-3

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 27, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks

Maryland: Alsobrooks Develops Significant Lead — A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) opening an advantage over ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) despite his favorable ratings.

The PPP survey (June 19-20; 635 Maryland voters) sees Alsobrooks leading Hogan and a series of independents and minor party candidates (cumulatively), 45-34-5 percent. In a head-to-head ballot test, she leads Hogan 48-40 percent. This, despite a positive Hogan favorability index of 50:33 percent. The biggest drag for Hogan is from the top of the Maryland ticket where President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump, 56-30 percent.

Nevada: Race Tightens — A new survey from a Democratic and Republican polling team finds a closer Senate race than the Emerson College poll conducted during the same period. The Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) survey, commissioned for AARP (June 12-18; 600 likely Nevada general election voters; live interview & text) sees Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), riding a media ad blitz, leading Republican Sam Brown, 47-42 percent, while former President Trump has a 44-37-10 percent advantage over President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I).

Conversely, Emerson College’s study (June 13-18; 1,000 registered Nevada voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Rosen with a much larger lead over Brown, 50-38 percent. While there is a clear advantage for Sen. Rosen in the most recent polling, this race will still be highly competitive come November.

House

MO-1: Rep. Bush in Dead Heat –– The Mellman Group, conducting a survey for the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (June 18-22; 400 registered MO-1 Democratic voters; live interview & text), sees challenger Wesley Bell, a former St. Louis County prosecutor, pulling into a one point, 43-42 percent, lead over Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the Socialist Democrat “Squad.” The Mellman analysis finds that Bell has closed the gap against the incumbent since January, seeing a net 17-point swing in his favor.

We can expect heavy outside spending coming into the district before the Aug. 6 primary. The pro-Israel organizations were successful in helping to defeat another Squad member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), in Tuesday night’s Democratic primary. Rep. Bush is another of the most anti-Israel congressional members and a top target of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the DMFI PAC.

WA-3: Dead Heat Poll — A new Public Policy Polling survey, regularly conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute (June 11-12; 649 registered WA-3 voters; live interview & text), sees Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) trailing 2022 general election finalist Joe Kent (R), by a 46-45 percent dead heat margin.

Washington’s 3rd District, which lies in the far southwestern corner of the state and anchored in the city of Vancouver, is the second-most Republican district that a US House Democrat represents. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+11. In 2022, Perez defeated Kent by less than a percentage point in one of the biggest upsets of that election year. The 2024 rematch, which is likely to occur after the state’s Aug. 6 jungle primary, portends to be just as close.

Primary Results: Bowman Loses; Boebert, Curtis, Maloy Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Primary Results

Assuming the still unofficial Virginia congressional race that will likely see Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) lose to state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) holds as expected, the second US House member of the cycle went down to a crushing defeat last night in New York.

In the west, Utah US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) has punched his ticket for the US Senate, and Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) successfully claimed the Republican nomination in a new district. In a contested Utah congressional race, short-term incumbent Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) looks to have won a close renomination campaign.

George Latimer defeats Rep. Jamaal Bowman. (Photo by Malcolm Frouman)

New York — The big story of the Empire State’s political evening is Westchester County Executive George Latimer easily defeating US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in what is being called the most expensive congressional primary in US history.

Approximately $30 million was spent in this campaign when adding the two candidates’ expenditures and including all the outside money. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s affiliated Super PAC looks to have spent over $17 million toward defeating Bowman, one of the most ardent anti-Israel House members. With a majority vote exceeding 58 percent, Latimer convincingly denied the congressman’s renomination.

Four years after Bowman unseated then-Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, he sees the tables turn in this election. Ironically, Bowman’s 55-41 percent ousting of Rep. Engel is similar to the 58-41 percent suffered in his own primary defeat.

Latimer, in his current position, represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District. Before winning his county position, Latimer had been elected to the state Senate and Assembly. In last night’s primary, he captured over 63 percent of the dominant Westchester County vote. In the remaining small Bronx County portion, Rep. Bowman recorded almost 84 percent support.

Elsewhere in the state, former CNN reporter John Avlon easily defeated former congressional nominee Nancy Goroff in the 1st District Democratic primary. Avlon now advances to the general election as an underdog to face freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County).

New York City Rep. Dan Goldman turned back two Democratic opponents with 66 percent of the vote, which will secure him a second term in November from the Manhattan anchored 10th CD.

Turning to the Queens-Bronx 14th District, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won an easy renomination against a minor Democratic opponent with 82 percent of the vote.

In what will be a very competitive Syracuse-based 22nd District general election, as expected, state Sen. John Mannion claimed the Democratic nomination last night with a 62-38 percent victory over local town councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood even though the latter contender won three of the district’s five counties. Sen. Mannion now advances into a toss-up general election versus freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in a race that will have national majority implications.

In the Upstate 24th District, Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) defeated attorney Mario Fratto with 61 percent of the vote. The congresswoman claimed 13 of the district’s 14 counties as she turned back a spirited effort from Fratto. Rep. Tenney now becomes a prohibitive favorite to defeat Democrat David Wagenhauser in the November election.

Colorado — A busy primary night in the Centennial State saw much of the action occurring in the state’s eastern 4th CD, vacant because of former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) resignation. Rep. Boebert, moving into the district from her western slope 3rd CD, easily captured the GOP nomination, which is usually tantamount to winning in November. Congresswoman Boebert recorded 43.2 percent preference to finish first, well ahead of second-place finisher Jerry Sonnenberg, a local county commissioner. He received just 14.5 percent. The third, fourth, and fifth place finishers all scored between 13.8 and 10.6 percent of the vote.

Boebert will now face Democratic speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, who scraped past two-time congressional nominee Ike McCorkle. McCorkle raised more than $1.4 million for his failed campaign. Calvarese was the party’s choice for the special election to fill the remaining part of the current term.

The Republican special election nominee, who agreed to serve only as a caretaker until the general election picks a permanent member, easily won the concurrent election. Former local mayor Greg Lopez, without spending much money, recorded a strong 58-34 percent victory over Calvarese to secure the seat for the GOP in a vote that is projected to draw more than 172,000 cast ballots. Rep-Elect Lopez will become the 220th member of the Republican conference.

The House will now be down to two vacancies, one from each party. The Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) and the death of New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) are the remaining districts without member representation.

Elsewhere in the state, attorney Jeff Hurd, despite Democratic attempts to vault Republican former state Rep. Ron Hanks to the 3rd District GOP nomination, won the party primary with 41.5 percent of the vote over five Republican opponents. The Hurd victory gives the Republicans their strongest candidate in an attempt to hold Rep. Boebert’s western slope district against 2022 Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, who held the congresswoman to a 546-vote win, the previous cycle’s closest US House race.

In retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn’s (R-Colorado Springs) open 5th District, radio talk show host, and three-time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, easily defeated Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams with a whopping 67-33 percent margin. Despite the two opposing each other in two campaigns, Rep. Lamborn and Crank came together for this contest. The 5th District is safely Republican, so Crank becomes a sure bet to succeed Rep. Lamborn in the next Congress.

Utah — Overcoming the Donald Trump and Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) recorded an impressive 51-29-13-6 percent victory over Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton to win the open Republican US Senate nomination. The congressman carried 28 of Utah’s 29 counties.

Curtis now becomes the strongest of favorites to defeat Democrat Caroline Gleich in the general election. Rep. Curtis will then succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R).

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) also defeated an official Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Paul Miller, with 72 percent of the GOP primary vote.

The going was much tougher for freshman Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) who eked out what will likely be a 51-49 percent win over businessman Colby Jenkins who had strong support from US Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT). Rep. Maloy will now advance into the general election where she will secure her first full congressional term.

In Rep. Curtis’ open District 3, Trump and state party endorsed candidate Mike Kennedy, a physician and state senator, scored a crowded primary victory with 36 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, who ran as the MAGA opposition candidate, calling himself “mainstream” fell to a last place finish with just eight percent of the vote. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, Sen. Kennedy will have little trouble securing the seat in November.

South Carolina Runoff — The lone South Carolina congressional runoff occurred in the state’s western open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring. In a very close finish, Gov. Henry McMaster’s (R) endorsed candidate, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, defeated Donald Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns, 51-49 percent, after Burns finished first in the June 11 primary. In another safe Republican district (538 rating: R+44), Biggs is now a lock to claim the seat in the general election.

Primary Action Today

READER ADVISORY: This short video of New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman contains profanity-laced language throughout his appearance. It is only a brief clip of his appearance at the rally.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Today’s Primaries

Today brings us another series of important primaries. Voters in New York, Colorado, Utah, and South Carolina will decide nominations in either primary elections or a congressional runoff and special election.

It is likely that Utah Republican voters will effectively elect a new US senator tonight. Three House incumbents in the various primary states are in highly competitive races, the most vulnerable of whom is two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also face intra-party challenges. A South Carolina runoff will effectively elect a new House member, and eastern Colorado voters will fill resigned Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) vacancy for the remainder of the current term.

New York — The Empire State nomination elections feature one major battle, that in the 16th Congressional District Democratic primary as Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) is in severe danger of losing renomination to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. Bowman (seen above in a Saturday campaign event that has gotten quite a bit of attention) has been out-raised by Latimer by well over $1 million. The outside money, mostly coming from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy PAC, has dropped over $17 million either to support Latimer or oppose Rep. Bowman. This contrasts to the $2 million in outside support for Bowman.

The latest poll released of the race, from Emerson College (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Latimer to a 48-31 percent advantage over Rep. Bowman. While it appears that Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) lost his close renomination battle last week, Rep. Bowman may become the second incumbent to fall to a primary challenger in this election cycle.

Most of the delegation, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), face little or no competition tonight. Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) should easily dispatch her 24th District primary challenger, attorney Mario Fratto. Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) also face minor primary opposition.

In Long Island’s 1st District, Democrats are choosing between former CNN News reporter John Avlon and 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. The winner then challenges freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) in the general election.

Turning to the Syracuse-anchored 22nd CD, it is arguable that freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) received the most unfavorable redraw in the new redistricting map. Vying for the Democratic nomination are state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse) and DeWitt Town Councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood. Sen. Mannion is favored for the nomination, and the general election promises to end in close fashion.

Colorado — The race attracting the most attention is the open 4th District where Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is moving from the western slope 3rd District across the state into eastern Colorado’s 4th CD. With her two top opponents falling by the political wayside, it appears Rep. Boebert will win nomination from her new CD. The Democratic primary is worth watching even in this district where the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26. Early polling suggests that Rep. Boebert will be in a competitive general election even in the state’s strongest Republican district.

Rep. Boebert’s current district features a competitive Republican primary to replace her as the party nominee. Democrats are spending money to elevate former state representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Ron Hanks, who they believe would be a weaker general election nominee than attorney Jeff Hurd. The winner faces former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D), who held Rep. Boebert to a 546-vote win in 2022, making it the closest finish of any congressional race in the previous election cycle.

Continue reading →

RFK Jr. Out for Debate / Nevada Ballot? New Mexico at Play in Presidential / Senate Contests? Senate Polls Series Released

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 24, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Debate Decisions: Kennedy Out; Stein Files Complaint — CNN, the host of the June 27 presidential debate, announced that Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party nominee Jill Stein have not qualified for the national forum. The main criteria of reaching 15 percent support in a series of major polls was not met by either candidate. Kennedy believes he still should be included and will attempt to qualify for the second debate to be scheduled for later in the year.

For her part, Stein is filing a complaint against CNN with the Federal Election Commission, following Kennedy’s own complaint, disputing the debate criteria as a violation of her rights as a candidate for federal office.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Nevada Ballot Status in Jeopardy — The Nevada Democratic Party is reportedly preparing to file a lawsuit in Nevada state court arguing that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) should be removed from the state’s general election ballot. Their argument is that Kennedy does not qualify under Nevada law as an Independent because he remains a registered Democrat. It remains to be seen if this lawsuit will gain legs.

Senate

New Mexico: Sen. Heinrich Leads by 7 in New Poll — Public Policy Polling went into the field to test the New Mexico electorate (June 13-14; 555 registered New Mexico voters; live interview & text) and projects two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) to hold a seven-point lead over Republican Nella Domenici, 47-40 percent.

Signs are increasing that New Mexico could become more competitive both in the presidential and senatorial contests. With the state’s plurality Hispanic population and the GOP performing better within that demographic, it appears possible for Republicans to record improved numbers in New Mexico’s general election. While it would not now be particularly surprising to see closer election results in November, Republicans are still a long way from winning either at the presidential or senatorial level in the Land of Enchantment.

Emerson College: Releases Series of Senate Polls — The Emerson College polling unit, in conjunction with The Hill newspaper, conducted a series of polls in six Democratic Senate states and released the data late last week. The six domains are Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each place, the pollsters surveyed 1,000 registered voters during the June 13-18 period.

While testing the Senate races in the five most competitive states, excluding Minnesota, Emerson also asked the presidential ballot test question. In all five situations, within the same polling samples that produced Democratic leaders in each Senate campaign, former President Donald Trump simultaneously posted an advantage. Thus, we are already seeing the seeds of an unusually large degree of ticket splitting beginning to develop.

According to the Emerson numbers, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), 45-41 percent. Looking at their Michigan results, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) tops former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), 43-39 percent. In Nevada, Sen. Jackie Rosen (D) enjoys the largest lead of any key swing state; she tops Afghan War veteran Sam Brown, 50-38 percent. Moving east, the Emerson numbers show Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) a 47-41 percent edge; and, Sen. Tammy Balwin (D-WI), while still leading, sees her margin over Republican Eric Hovde drop to just 46-44 percent.

In addition to Republicans converting the open West Virginia seat, they would have to turnaround one of the aforementioned races, or score a victory in three tight race states that Emerson College didn’t survey, Maryland, Montana, or Ohio, in order to secure an outright majority.

Consistent Inconsistency

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 17, 2024

Senate

Arizona senate candidate Kari Lake (R) struggles in race despite Trump’s lead in polls. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While news stories are prevalent discussing former President Donald Trump’s polling status, which, despite being convicted in his New York trial, shows him leading in most of the swing states, the same cannot be said for most of the Republican senatorial candidates.

Last week, Senate surveys were released in Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, three key swing states. Marist College conducted the Ohio and Pennsylvania studies, while a Republican/Democratic polling combination, Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D), executed the Arizona project.

The Fabrizio/IR Arizona survey, conducted for AARP (May 28-June 4; 600 likely Arizona voters; live interview & text), projects former President Trump to be holding a 45-37-11-3 percent advantage over President Joe Biden, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Yet, the open Senate ballot test before the same sampling universe favors Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 48-45 percent, a net 11-point swing from Trump’s lead to Lake’s deficit.

We see a similar pattern in the latest Ohio data. Marist College conducted the Buckeye State poll during the June 3-6 period and communicated with 1,137 registered Ohio voters either through telephone interview or online questionnaire. Here, we see Trump topping President Biden, Kennedy, Stein, and Dr. Cornel West, 48-41-5-1-1 percent. Yet, in the Senate race, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) posts a five point, 50-45 percent edge over Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, or a net 12 points behind Trump’s standing (Trump up 7; Moreno down 5).

Marist’s Pennsylvania findings also follow this similar pattern. The college’s polling administrators conducted the Keystone State survey during the same June 3-6 period as the Ohio study and interviewed either through phone or online contact 1,181 registered Pennsylvania voters. The results found Trump holding a two-point lead over President Biden, 47-45 percent, while Kennedy posted only three percent support, and Stein and Dr. West, one percent apiece. On the Senate question, however, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) tops businessman David McCormick (R), by six percentage points, 52-46 percent, or a net eight points below Trump’s position.

Though we did not see new general election data released in Nevada and Wisconsin during the week, the Trump leading (or close to tied in Wisconsin)/Republican Senate candidate trailing pattern is also consistently present in these two places.

In two other highly competitive races, Michigan and Montana, the Senate races are much closer. The numbers between Trump and the leading Michigan Republican, former Rep. Mike Rogers, are pretty close, with each clearly falling into a toss-up realm. In Montana, while Trump is consistently running well ahead of President Biden, the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is a virtual tie.

Some of the presidential to Senate discrepancy can be explained through incumbency. In Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the Republican candidates are challenging incumbent Democratic senators, Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Sens. Brown, Casey and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). But, that’s not the case in Arizona where the similar pattern exists even in an open seat race.

The other state with a competitive Senate race, Maryland, is in a different category. Trump is far from leading in the Free State polling, nor will he at any time before the election. Maryland is going to be one of President Biden’s strongest states, and GOP nominee and former Gov. Larry Hogan has a different set of obstacles to overcome if he is to be successful.

With the current Senate map decidedly favoring the Republicans because they must defend only 11 seats as opposed to 23 for the Democrats, the GOP must maximize their win-to-loss ratio in the 2024 elections. Though they are effectively at a 50D-50R break from an electoral standpoint because of what appears as a virtual conversion lock in West Virginia, the Republican leadership must make a concerted effort to assist several of the challengers in defeating their incumbent Democratic opponents.

Getting to 53 or 54 Republican senators is the GOP goal for this election year. They must have such a cushion when they head into the 2026 and ’28 election years when the Senate election maps favor the Democrats.

Therefore, unless the Republican strategists can find a way to break the pattern we’re seeing in most of the competitive race states where their candidates trail while Trump leads, they will fall short of their goal. Monitoring their developing offensive strategy in the coming weeks merits significant attention.

Incumbents Prevail Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Primary Results

No major surprises occurred in primary elections last night. Once more, challenged incumbents all won their renomination efforts. The most competitive were in South Carolina. Turning to Ohio, Republican Michael Rulli, after trailing early, successfully claimed the 6th District special election to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver and Maine state representative.

Maine — In the state’s lone competitive US House primary, as expected, retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Ft. Kent) easily won the Republican primary, defeating fellow state representative and actor Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips) with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Theriault will advance into the general election against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Should former President Donald Trump continue with his large polling lead in this district over President Joe Biden, the turnout model should be favorable for Theriault, thus making this a competitive race to watch in the general election. Ranked Choice Voting, which has previously helped Golden, will again be used in this race should no contender record majority support on the initial count.

Nevada — As expected, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown was an easy winner in the Republican Senate primary and now advances to officially challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen who was naturally a big winner in the Democratic primary. This will be a top-tier general election contest.

In the three potentially competitive Las Vegas House races, 2022 1st District nominee Mark Robertson appears to have won the multi-candidate Republican primary and will again challenge Rep. Dina Titus (D). Robertson did not run a particularly good campaign two years ago, losing by six percentage points. He will have to substantially improve if he is to become a serious contender in 2024.

In the 3rd District, the Republican primary is close, but it appears that marketing consultant Drew Johnson will prevail for the nomination. He will then advance to challenge Rep. Susie Lee (D) in what should be the most competitive of the three seats.

In District 4, former North Las Vegas Mayor and ex-Democrat John Lee, has won the Republican primary and will challenge veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D) in November.

The three Las Vegas seats should be competitive, but the Democratic incumbents in each of the districts are early favorites to win re-election.

North Dakota — Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, with backing from former President Trump and Gov. Doug Burgum, won the at-large Republican primary last evening defeating former state Rep. Rich Becker and 2018 Miss American Cara Mund. The Fedorchak nomination victory is tantamount to winning the at-large seat in the general election.

The House seat is open because three-term US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) easily won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as he defeated Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller with more than 70 percent of the GOP vote. Armstrong will now be the prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Gov. Burgum in the general election.

South Carolina — The most interesting House races were in South Carolina where two incumbents faced credible competition. As has been the case in all contested campaigns this year, the incumbents again prevailed.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) posted 57 percent in her battle against former Haley Administration cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton and non-profit corporation executive Bill Young. Polling had placed Rep. Mace well ahead of her opponents, but the question lingered as to whether she would exceed the majority vote threshold. Doing so easily, and with the Supreme Court not changing the 1st District in its ruling last month, Rep. Mace is now officially on her way to winning a third term in November.

In the Greenville-Spartanburg seat, Rep. William Timmons (R) also won re-election, turning back state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville) with another close 52-48 percent victory margin, the same margin of his 2022 primary win.

The open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring will head to a runoff election in two weeks. Pastor and National Guard veteran Mark Burns placed first and will face National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, who has Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsement. The pair finished within two points of each other and now advance to the June 25 election. The winner of the secondary election will take the seat in November.

OH-6 — The evening’s special general election was decided in the Republicans’ favor, but in a closer than expected finish against a Democratic candidate who had little in the way of resources. Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak with a 55-45 percent margin.

The Rulli victory will bring the Republican Conference to 219 members with another special election, that in the CO-4 district, to be decided on June 25.

Once again, we see a Republican candidate slightly under-performing in a special election from a district that should have returned a victory in the much higher 50s. Rep-Elect Rulli and Kripchak will now advance to the regular general election. Rulli will again be favored and should win with a larger margin in November from a district that ex-President Trump will carry heavily.