By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 6, 2024
Senate
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (Aug. 27-29; 635 likely Minnesota voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the senator leading White, 50-36 percent.
West Virginia: Gov. Justice Takes Command in Senate Race — In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (Aug. 21-27; 400 likely West Virginia voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the governor’s office, Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28 percent margin over Mayor Elliott.
Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.
Governor
West Virginia: AG Morrisey On Way to Clinching Governor’s Race — The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35 percent against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Morrisey will easily hold the governor’s position for the GOP.
House
AK-AL: Primary Numbers Final — The Alaska Aug. 20 primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9 percent of the vote in the state’s unique top-four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.
In second place was Republican Nick Begich III with 26.6 percent followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9 percent support. The fourth-place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes for less than one percent. Dahlstrom is forfeiting her general election position, and it is unclear if Salisbury will continue. Therefore, it appears that Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola in a budding one-on-one campaign.
While Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast, meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.
FL-13: A Different Perspective — Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44 percent margin. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (Aug. 28-29; 400 likely FL-13 voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43 percent advantage.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.
