Category Archives: Mayor

Filner Resignation Affects House Race

It appears that the San Diego City Council and scandal-ridden Mayor Bob Filner have reached a tentative resignation agreement, but the ensuing mayoral replacement process will probably adversely affect Republican chances of unseating freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA-52).

Apparently Filner’s lawyers have prepared a document that outlines their client’s departure terms. The council is dealing with the situation in closed session, so the public is not yet privy to what’s contained in the settlement. Attorney Gloria Allred, representing one of the women that the mayor and former congressman allegedly sexually harassed, is saying that the proposal includes a provision for the city to pay Filner’s legal fees. Allred is voicing opposition to such an arrangement and it is likely that she won’t be the only one to object. Therefore, the end of the Filner tenure may not be as close as media reports suggest.

Regardless of when the mayor leaves office, a special election will be conducted for voters to choose a replacement. The legal calendar dictates that the special primary be scheduled within 90 days of the vacancy occurring, followed by a run-off contest between the top two finishers within an additional 49 days if no candidate receives an outright majority in the first election.

Former city councilman Carl DeMaio (R) lost a close 52-48 percent election to Filner last November, after placing first in the primary election. Upon absorbing the loss, DeMaio began taking steps to challenge freshman Rep. Peters, citing 2012 precinct vote totals. The figures prove that he out-polled Filner by 12 percentage points in CD-52’s overlapping city portion. The district area outside the city is even more Republican, so to argue that DeMaio, or any other Republican candidate, would do better outside San Diego than inside is reasonable.

The budding congressional race was developing into a major campaign and one of the best Republican conversion opportunities in the country. Both candidates reported robust fundraising in late June – Peters more than $621,000 raised with $525,890 cash-on-hand; DeMaio an impressive $487,983 raised with $469,644 in the bank – while two early polls staked the challenger to a sizable lead. The Tarrance Group, for Mr. DeMaio back in April, posted their client to a 49-39 percent advantage over the new incumbent. In June, Survey USA confirmed the spread, reporting  Continue reading >

Three States, Three Different Approaches

Pennsylvania

A major political decision announced just yesterday will help a Pennsylvania freshman Republican congressman. In November, businessman Keith Rothfus (R) unseated incumbent Rep. Mark Critz (D) in the newly drawn 12th Congressional District.

Critz was originally paired with then-Rep. Jason Altmire (D) in the one district after PA lost a seat in reapportionment. The sophomore congressman prevailed over Altmire in a close, hard-fought contest, but then Critz went on to lose the general election to Rothfus 48-52 percent, despite President Obama again carrying Pennsylvania.

Since the election, it was assumed that Critz would seek a re-match with congressman Rothfus in an attempt to regain his lost position. Critz, however, has decided on a different political direction. Instead of again running for Congress, the ex-member will now run for lieutenant governor. With the Democrats appearing well positioned to unseat Gov. Tom Corbett (R), riding on a ticket with the Democratic gubernatorial nominee could allow Critz to sail back into office.

In Pennsylvania, candidates for lieutenant governor run independently in the primary but, once nominated, are paired with the gubernatorial nominee on a general election ticket. The leading Democratic gubernatorial contender is Critz’s former congressional colleague, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13). As a political team, the two would strike a balance between the dominant liberal wing of the Democratic Party and its more moderate faction.

Maine

With the polls showing that Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) would defeat Gov. Paul LePage (R) even in a three-way match with Independent attorney Eliot Cutler, the congressman will officially announce his gubernatorial campaign later today. Earlier, Michaud had formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

While Michaud’s prospects appear strong in the governor’s contest, the battle for his open House seat could reflect a different complexion. Though the Democrats will be viewed as likely winners early in the race, a strong Republican candidate could become highly competitive in an inland western  Continue reading >

Louisiana House Vacancy

Two days ago, Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA-5) surprisingly announced that he would retire from Congress. Yesterday we find he means to exit right away, leaving mid-term in order to accept a position in Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R) administration as the state’s Veterans’ Affairs Director.

Jindal (R) has already taken action and defined the 5th District special election calendar. As you most likely remember, Louisiana employs the jungle primary system, which means all candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If a candidate receives an outright majority of the vote, said individual is elected. If no candidate secures at least 50 percent plus one vote, then the top two finishers advance to a final run-off election.

In this instance, Gov. Jindal has chosen Oct. 19 for the first election, with the run-off to occur on Nov. 16. The candidate filing deadline is a quick Aug. 21, therefore giving prospective candidates little time to decide whether they will make the race.

Already, two state legislators have announced their special election candidacies. Republican state Sen. Neil Riser and Democratic state Rep. Marcus Hunter will both soon form campaign committees. Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy admits that he is considering running, saying that he believes his “centrist Democrat” philosophy is in line with the majority of the 5th District’s constituency.

The 5th CD consumes all of northeastern Louisiana and then takes the upper half of the state’s eastern tail. The Alexandria and Monroe areas are the largest population centers, but each metropolitan region fails to top 65,000 residents.

Mitt Romney defeated President Obama here 61-38 percent in 2012. John McCain carried the seat 62-37 percent over Mr. Obama in 2008. Republicans are the early favorites to hold the district.

2013 Polling Notes:

Two new polls were released covering northeastern 2013 political action.

New Jersey

In the Garden State, Quinnipiac University (Aug. 1-5; 2,042 registered New Jersey voters) tested the upcoming governor’s race where incumbent Chris Christie (R) appears to be steaming toward re-election.
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Minnesota Rumblings; Weiner Under Fire

Several developments are unfolding in budding Minnesota congressional races. A new Democratic poll in the state’s 2nd District shows House Education and Workforce Committee chairman John Kline dropping under 50 percent to the man he summarily defeated in 2012, while a serious Democratic challenger is potentially surfacing against Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN-3) in the adjoining district.

Victoria Research (July 17-21; 400 registered MN-2 voters), polling for the liberal House Majority PAC, tested former state Rep. Mike Obermueller against incumbent Kline and found the congressman to be leading 45-32 percent. But, the poll appears slanted.

Repeatedly the questionnaire stresses “compromise” in law making and clearly attempts to paint Kline as one not inclined to bend. For example, Obermueller was cast as a person who is “working together with others to achieve common goals.” The inference is that Kline is not. After characterizing Obermueller in this manner, another ballot test was then asked and, unsurprisingly, the Democrat forges into the lead 44-38 percent. Such a push question skews the poll’s overall results.

In any event, however, Kline did not receive a particularly favorable draw in redistricting and his Minneapolis suburban district is marginal in nature. President Obama carried the seat over Republican nominee Mitt Romney, but by only the smallest of spreads, just 0.1 percent of the vote. In the last congressional election, Rep. Kline defeated Obermueller 54-46 percent, a margin of some 29,000-plus votes.

Next door, former news anchorman Don Shelby (D) is confirming that he is considering launching a challenge to three-term incumbent Paulsen.

The 3rd CD, which encompasses the western Minneapolis suburbs of Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Plymouth, and Brooklyn Park, is also a marginal district but trends a bit more Republican though President Obama topped Romney by one point and almost four in 2008.

Paulsen, a former seven-term state Representative and legislative leader, originally won the district in 2008 with a 48-41 percent victory. He has since been re-elected with margins of 59-36 percent and 58-42 percent in 2010 and ’12, respectively. Neither of his re-election opponents, however, spent more than $530,000 against him.

It remains to be seen if either Democratic challenge develops in these Twin Cities’ suburban districts, but the voting patterns will yield competitive campaigns under the right circumstances. It is difficult to see, however, the climate becoming ripe for Democrats under a mid-term turnout model as we will experience in 2014.
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The Return of Anthony Weiner?

Last week, former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) who resigned from the House in disgrace in 2011, said publicly that he is at least contemplating a 2013 run for mayor of New York. This week, Quinnipiac University released their current poll of the race (April 15-18; 1,161 registered New York City voters; 740 Democrats) that shows Weiner in second position even though his popularity index is an upside down 33:41 percent favorable to unfavorable.

According to the data, Weiner scores support from 15 percent of the Democrats polled, compared to NYC Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s 28 percent. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, former city comptroller William Thompson, and current City Comptroller John Liu follow with 11, 10, and 9 percent, respectively. Of the entire group, Thompson has, at 32:9 percent, the strongest favorability ratio but it is not as yet translating into stated support.

Days earlier, the Marist Poll (April 11-15; 873 Democratic New York city voters) showed almost identical results. According to this data, Quinn leads with 26 percent; Weiner was again second with an identical 15 percent, and Liu, de Blasio, and Thompson follow with 12 percent, 11 percent, and 11 percent, respectively.

Weiner still has some time to decide whether to run. Mandatory “designating petitions” can be circulated beginning June 4, with the requisite number being returned no later than July 11. The primary election is scheduled for Sept. 10. If no candidate receives 40 percent plus one vote, the top two will participate in a special run-off election scheduled for Sept. 24. The municipal general election is Nov. 5.

The leading Republican candidate is Metropolitan Transportation Authority Board chairman Joe Lhota. It is clear from the polling, however, that the Democratic primary and likely run-off will determine the identity of the next mayor. Lhota is substantially behind all of the Democratic candidates, even Wiener though the Republican does perform best against him. According to the Quinnipiac survey, Weiner is the choice of 51 percent of those tested  Continue reading >