Tag Archives: Neil Abercrombie

Hanabusa Defeated in Hawaii;
Case Nominated in Dem Contest

Gov. David Ige (D-HI)

Gov. David Ige (D-HI)

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 13, 2018 — The Hawaii primary was held on Saturday, and while Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) began her Democratic primary challenge as a virtual favorite to deny Gov. David Ige re-nomination — at one time she led by more than 20 points according to several polls — the incumbent rebounded to score a 51-44 percent victory. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to claiming the general election, meaning the November contest between Gov. Ige and state House Minority Leader Andrea Tupola (R-Kapolei), the new Republican nominee, is likely to be a mere formality.

Rep. Hanabusa was originally elected to the House in 2010, defeating then-Rep. Charles Djou (R-Honolulu) in that year’s general election. In 2014, she challenged appointed Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary after the passing of veteran Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), who served in Congress from the day when Hawaii became a state.

Hanabusa returned to the House in 2016 when her successor, Rep. Mark Takai (D-Aiea), passed away from pancreatic cancer. Quickly after making her way back to Washington, however, the congresswoman decided to launch the intra-party challenge to Gov. Ige who himself had unseated a Democratic governor, Neil Abercrombie, in the 2014 primary campaign.

Ige hit rock bottom in this contest when a false alarm catastrophic missile attack warning was unleashed, sending panic throughout the islands, and his poll numbers unsurprisingly dropped precipitously in the aftermath. But he rebounded to re-generate support from his Democratic base, improve his job approval ratio, and substantially increase his lagging fundraising operation. Polling had detected the momentum change within the last two weeks of the primary cycle, and an Ige lead was being widely reported as the two candidates headed into the election’s final days.

The Democratic turnout was 242,413 voters, most of whom voted early, which is about 5,000 more than voted in the last midterm when Ige defeat then-Gov. Abercrombie in a 66-31 percent landslide margin. By contrast, Saturday’s GOP turnout was only 31,134 individuals.

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Hawaii Primary Tomorrow

hawaiian-islands

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 10, 2018 — Hawaii voters go to the polls tomorrow for a rare Saturday primary in what will likely be an election to choose a governor. The Democratic primary winner is a lock to carry the general election, and Gov. David Ige and US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) have been in a tough intra-party battle for months.

Ironically, Gov. Ige came to office in much the same way that Rep. Hanabusa hopes to succeed. That is, defeating a sitting Democratic governor in the primary. Four years ago, Ige, then a state senator, challenged and easily defeated incumbent Neil Abercrombie in a 66-31 percent Democratic primary thrashing.

For a time, it looked like history might repeat itself. Early in the race, and not long after the false missile attack alarm that became a national news story, Rep. Hanabusa was staked to large polling leads. In a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies mid-March survey, she led the governor, 47-27 percent. In late June, Q-Mark Research, polling for the Hanabusa Campaign, projected their candidate to a whopping 57-31 percent advantage.

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Republican Senate Movement in Hawaii, Mississippi

Hawaii

Though America’s 50th state is heavily Democratic, intra-party political developments may yield extra value to Hawaii’s Republican senatorial nomination. A very tough Democratic primary held late in the cycle (Aug. 9) could potentially cause enough partisan upheaval to put the general election in play. Hence, former congressman, Honolulu City councilman, and state Rep. Charles Djou (R-HI-1) is reportedly considering filing as a senatorial candidate.

Djou won a special congressional election in early 2010 to fill then-Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-HI-1) final term in the House when the latter resigned to spend full-time campaigning for governor. In the regular election later in the year, however, he fell to then-state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D), 44-50 percent.

Most analysts and observers expected him to run again in the open 1st District, since incumbent Hanabusa is challenging appointed Sen. Brian Schatz in the  Continue reading >

News and Notes: Following up Previous Posts

McConnell Replies

You may remember last week that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign manager launched a public attack on the Public Policy Polling survey research firm when they published numbers showing the senator with only a 37:55 percent favorability index. Though the PPP numbers showed his popularity at a low point for any incumbent senator, McConnell still maintained consistent 47-43 percent leads over actress Ashley Judd, Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson. The latter two have already ruled out a 2014 senatorial run.

Yesterday, the senator’s campaign released their internal Voter/Consumer Research poll taken during the Dec. 10-13 period. Interestingly, though the McConnell team disparaged the PPP results, their own data projects him to be leading Judd by exactly the same 47-43 percent margin. What is vastly different, however, is the Minority Leader’s approval rate among the voters of his home state. While PPP forecast him in hopelessly upside down job approval territory, the Voter/Consumer Research poll posted him to a 51:40 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio.

Obviously, the 2014 Kentucky Senate race will draw a great deal of national attention, Continue reading>

Senate Picture Changes Again

Hawaii

The passing of venerable Senator Dan Inouye (D-HI) has brought yet another vacancy to the Senate. Mr. Inouye, first elected to Congress as Hawaii’s original member of the House of Representatives in 1959, won his first senatorial term in 1962. He served continuously until yesterday. Along with retiring seat-mate Daniel Akaka (D), Hawaii had the most senior delegation in the nation. With Inouye’s death and Akaka leaving in January, the state will now have two freshman senators, losing a combined 70 years in seniority.

The Hawaii seat now becomes the 35th in the 2014 election cycle. Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) will choose an interim appointment who will serve until a 2014 special election is held concurrently with the regular November vote. The winner will then serve the remaining two years of Inouye’s term, meaning the seat will be contested for a full six-year stint in 2016. Should Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) be appointed Secretary of State, as many believe will soon happen, the Massachusetts, Hawaii, and South Carolina seats will all be going to special election in 2014 with a regular election for the same seat following two years later.

South Carolina

In South Carolina, Gov. Nikki Haley (R), surprising many who believed would act after the first of the year, announced that she will appoint Rep. Tim Scott (R-SC-1) to replace outgoing Sen. Jim DeMint (R). Continue reading>