Two more states now have official 2014 candidates as office seekers in Pennsylvania and Oregon made their political intentions official this week.
Gov. Tom Corbett (R) is facing one Republican primary challenger, while six Democrats will battle for their party’s nomination to be decided May 20. The eventual Democrat standard bearer will have a strong chance of unseating Corbett, who continues to post some of the worst job approval ratings in the country.
With businessman Tom Wolf out to an early lead after unleashing a major positive and clever media buy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13), state Treasurer Rob McCord and three others who comprise the Democratic field are forced to play catch-up.
In a stunning final special election result from Florida last night, Republican David Jolly, who opponents painted as a Washington lobbyist representing an organization that favors Social Security privatization, upset favored Democratic candidate Alex Sink in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. The campaign’s conclusion carries national implications.
The Affordable Care Act was front and center throughout the contest, with Jolly touting his opposition to the program and Sink relying on a catch phrase of “keeping what’s right [with the healthcare program] and fixing what’s wrong”. Her argument, before a Sunshine State congressional district with the sixth largest segmentation of people (in Florida) over 65 years of age (22.8 percent), apparently fell upon largely disbelieving ears.
Jolly won the race 48.5 – 46.6 percent, with 4.8 percent going to Libertarian Party nominee Lucas Overby. The Republican victory margin was 3,456 votes from a huge total of 183,627 ballots cast. Continue reading >
The death of veteran Florida Congressman Bill Young (R) in October has led to a March 11 special election that may tell us a great deal about the impending regular general election.
The special election campaign, now turning into a multi-million dollar affair with both parties and all major outside organizations spending heavily, is proving to be a major testing ground for election themes. Both sides will soon see how their proposed general election messages play and, with the district’s electorate split almost evenly regarding the Obamacare law, much will be learned about how the two sides will portray the issue nationally this fall.
Florida’s 13th Congressional District appears to be a political microcosm of the state (Obama-Romney statewide 2012: 50-49 percent; FL-13 Obama-Romney: 50-49 percent), while arguably the Sunshine State itself is often viewed as a viable campaign test model for the entire country. The district Continue reading >
Yesterday, Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-31) announced that he would retire at the end of this Congress and not seek re-election in his San Bernardino County US House district. The 31st in California is the most Democratic CD in the country to elect a Republican congressman. Against national GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Pres. Obama scored 57.2 percent of the vote here, providing a clear example of its partisan leanings.
The now open CA-31 becomes the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the country. With registration in their favor and a weak Republican presence post-Miller, chances are strong of a double-Democrat general election, meaning a sure Democratic gain.
Here’s why: The 2012 congressional result was quirky in the fact that this decidedly Democratic district sent two Republicans to the general election under California’s new Continue reading >
The most notable point from the Alabama candidate filings is that four of the state’s six House members seeking re-election will be running unopposed this November. Only representatives Martha Roby (R-AL-2) and Mike Rogers (R-AL-3) have Democratic opposition, but both appear headed for little trouble in securing re-election.
Representatives Robert Aderholt (R-AL-4), Mo Brooks (R-AL-5), and Terri Sewell (D-AL-7) all drew primary opponents. Rep. Sewell’s challenger seems to be the strongest intra-party candidate. Former Birmingham city attorney Tamara Harris Johnson filed in the Democratic primary, but the incumbent remains the heavy favorite for renomination. In all three of these cases, once the individuals win their respective party primaries, the political opposition ends.
The governor’s race yielded an interesting political twist. Former Rep. Parker Griffith, who was elected to the 5th District in 2008 as a Democrat but became a Republican Continue reading >
Delegates from the California Democratic Party met in regional caucuses this past weekend to vote on a first round of official party endorsements. If a candidate becomes the party endorsed candidate, he or she is then placed on statewide slate mailers and can receive access to party campaign resources. At this preliminary endorsement level, a candidate must receive 70 percent of the voting delegates’ support in order to be placed on a consent calendar for pro forma approval at the Democratic State Convention. Falling short of the 70 percent plateau means further individual voting will occur at the convention, held this year on March 7-9 in Los Angeles.
With the state now instituting a jungle primary system where the top two finishers in the June 3 election advance to the general election irrespective of partisan preference, political party endorsements become more important. Therefore, these regional and Continue reading >
California Rep. Henry Waxman’s (D) surprise retirement announcement last week undoubtedly caught the Golden State’s Democratic establishment by surprise, but the local pols have quickly regained their bearings.
Two political heavyweights jumped into the race in the past three days, and it is possible that this could be the duo who qualifies for advancement to the general election. Los Angeles city controller and defeated mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel (D) and state Sen. Ted Lieu (D) have both officially entered the congressional race. Feminist Sandra Fluke (D), who came to prominence when Rush Limbaugh attacked her on his national radio program, says she isn’t entering the congressional campaign, but will run for Lieu’s now open state Senate seat.
Already members of the Los Angeles congressional delegation are taking sides, as is former mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa. Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA-40) announced her support for Greuel, while Rep. Karen Bass (R-CA-37) will back Sen. Lieu. The Continue reading >