Category Archives: Governor

Sen. Tim Scott Out; Primary Rematch Announced in Rep. Omar’s District; Candidate Again Switches Districts; Two Texas Reps Out; Spanberger to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023

President

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.

The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race.

House

MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2 percent renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, has officially announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or if they will give Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.

Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither had raised even $55,000 through the Sept. 30 campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, 2024.

NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts — Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Walker abandoned his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms.

TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election — As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress.

Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor — Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced that she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports more than $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferable to a Virginia state campaign.

Without Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Trouble for Biden in Swing States; Incumbents Reign in 2023 Elections; Former Michigan Rep. Announces for Senate; What the Amo RI-1 Win Means

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023

President

President Joe Biden is in trouble in swing states. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Siena College/NYT Poll: Trouble for Biden in Swing States — Siena College and the New York Times teamed up on recent polls in six key swing states all conducted during the Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 period. The six states are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The tested Republicans against President Joe Biden were former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. In all instances, with the exception of Trump in Wisconsin, the named Republican would poll ahead of President Biden, thus unseating him if the election were today.

Of the three Republicans, Haley performs the strongest against the Biden. Her best number, +14, comes among Wisconsin likely voters. Trump’s best state is Nevada (+11); DeSantis tops President Biden by five percentage points among Arizona registered voters; Biden’s best showing comes against Trump in Wisconsin (+2).

The Democrats certainly have time to right their political ship, and if Trump is convicted in any of his criminal cases, that might get adjudicated before the election, and the tables could quickly turn. This campaign will prove the most unique of presidential elections.

Election 2023

Déjà Vu: Incumbents Reign — The 2023 odd-numbered year elections are now in the books, and, as we saw on Election Night, the results are very similar to what occurred a year earlier in the 2022 midterm elections.

Most of the political pundits are calling this election year a victory for Democrats despite having an unpopular president in office, while others cite the abortion issue as a continuing turnout driver, which also benefits Democrats. Both statements are true, but perhaps the more definitive underlying pattern is that the incumbents, just as they did in 2022, again reign supreme.

In 2022, 55 of the 56 US senators and governors who ran for re-election won. In the US House elections, 98.1 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. On Election Night, we saw two more incumbent governors win again.

Governors Andy Beshear (D) and Tate Reeves (R) in Kentucky and Mississippi, respectively, were re-elected with similar five percentage point margins. Polling in the two states suggested a closer result for both incumbents, but each was favored to win.

The Virginia situation is a bit different. Largely due to new court-imposed redistricting maps that radically changed the complexion of most districts, voters elected Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature. It is inconsistent to rate the Virginia results as incumbent-oriented because we saw roughly one-third of all districts run without incumbents, and most of those office holders who did seek re-election found themselves in new districts vastly different from the one in which they were originally elected.

Democrats will now have at least 21 of 40 seats in the Virginia state Senate and 52 of 100 in the House of Delegates. The party division margin differences yield no change in the Senate, while Democrats converted at least four seats in the House.

While it’s difficult to overlay an incumbent victory matrix across the Old Dominion legislative elections, it is not unusual to see a state that has become reliably Democratic over the past two decades to again vote for that party’s candidates in the 2023 elections. Therefore, the fact that the state’s favored party over the course of time again performed better is consistent with the incumbent voting pattern seen elsewhere.

The abnormal facet of the incumbent-oriented elections we have witnessed in 2022 and now 2023 is that the issue polls consistently show voters certainly believing the country is headed down the wrong track, with similar feelings regarding most states. The state right direction/wrong track questions, however, are not as intensely negative as at the national level.

Yet, despite the recorded discontent, voters return to their respective polling places and almost unanimously re-elect the incumbents. This again suggests that the Republican campaign message machine needs an overhaul. It is clear that their campaign themes and approaches are not driving enough voters to support the GOP candidates in the most hotly contested races.

Once numbers become finalized, we can better understand the results. Because the 2023 vote tabulations verified the pattern set in 2022, it is likely this precursor favors incumbents at large, and more specifically the Democrats, to have another positive election year in 2024 despite what today’s issue polls may currently be projecting.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Meijer Announces — Former one-term Congressman Peter Meijer (R), who was defeated for renomination in 2022, announced Monday that he will join the open Michigan US Senate field. The move had been expected for weeks, but is a curious one, nonetheless. It is hard to see a victory path for Rep. Meijer since he couldn’t get enough conservative support to defeat his ’22 GOP challenger, John Gibbs. Gibbs would then go onto lose the general election to now freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids).

The top Republican contenders for the party’s Senate nomination are former US Rep. Mike Rogers and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig. It is possible that Meijer’s entry could actually help Rogers, since Craig and Meijer will likely both appeal to the more centrist element of the Republican voter base. If so, this will help Rogers unite the conservatives behind his candidacy and propel him to the nomination. Whoever wins the Republican primary will almost assuredly face Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election.

The open Michigan race is likely to be close, but Democrats will have at least a slight edge in the general election. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms once the current congressional session concludes at the beginning of 2025.

House

RI-1: Gabe Amo (D) Wins Special Election — Former Biden and Obama White House aide Gabe Amo virtually assured himself of succeeding resigned Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) when he won the Sept. 5 special Democratic primary. Amo easily defeated Republican Gerry Leonard Tuesday in the special general election. Upon winning the seat, Amo now will be sworn in to the House and serve the balance of the current term.

Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District is solidly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+32. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 64.9D – 33.1R. President Biden carried the seat with a 64-35 percent victory margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 99th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference — pretty secure. Therefore, there was little doubt as to which candidate would win the special election.

The Amo victory will bring the Democrats back to their full 213-member compliment in the House. The next special election, in UT-2, will be held on Nov. 21. Republican Celeste Maloy is favored to hold resigned Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R-Farmington) seat. Should she win, the House will be restored to its post-regular election division of 222R-213D.

Kennedy Breaks 20 Percent Threshold; Nevada’s Lombardo Endorses One-Time Opponent; US Governors’ Approval Ratings; Early Voting Trends Ahead of Tuesday

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 6, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an Independent general election candidate.

Quinnipiac Poll: Kennedy Breaks 20 Percent Threshold — A new national Quinnipiac University survey (Oct. 26-30; 1,772 US Adults; 1,610 US registered voters; live interview) finds Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an Independent general election candidate, securing 22 percent support in a ballot test featuring him, President Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump. The Kennedy presence dragged both President Biden (39 percent) and Mr. Trump (36 percent) below the 40 percent mark. Kennedy’s strongest groups were voters aged 18-34 (38 percent), Independents (36 percent), and Hispanics (33 percent).

As has been the case with other polling, Kennedy draws slightly more support from the Trump/Republican coalition than he does from the Biden/Democratic voter group. In this particular survey, 14 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats support Kennedy.

House

NV-4: Governor Endorses Ex-North Las Vegas Mayor — Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has already waded into the 4th Congressional District Republican primary to endorse former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a Democrat turned Republican. Interestingly, Lee opposed Lombardo in the 2022 governor’s race, but fared poorly in garnering only eight percent support. Lombardo, then the Clark County Sheriff, would go on to defeat incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in the associated general election to become the only challenger to unseat either a sitting governor or a senator in the entire country.

The 2024 4th District Republican primary winner will challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in what is likely to become a competitive race. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NV-4 as D+5. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 34th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Governor

Morning Consult: Governor Approval Survey — The Morning Consult firm released their regular report measuring job approval scores of all 50 US governors and found everyone in positive territory. Govs. Phil Scott (R-VT; 83:14 percent approval/disapproval), Mark Gordon (R-WY; 73:13 percent), Chris Sununu (R-NH; 67:28 percent), Josh Green (D-HI; 66:25 percent), and Mike Dunleavy (R-AK; 63:25 percent) were the five governors commanding the strongest ratios.

The five with the worst ratings are: Govs. Tina Kotek (D-OR; 44:41 percent approval/ disapproval), Tate Reeves (R-MS; 46:44 percent), Katie Hobbs (D-AZ; 48:40 percent), Kim Reynolds (R-IA; 49:47 percent), and outgoing Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA; 49:43 percent). The poorer scores were particularly concerning for Mississippi Gov. Reeves, who is on the ballot for re-election Tuesday, Gov. Reynolds in Iowa who was consistently highly rated in previous surveys, and Gov. Edwards who will leave office in December but, heretofore, had enjoyed reliably positive scores.

States

Early Voting: Monitoring Trends Before Tuesday — Since most states have adopted some form of early voting, analyzing the pre-election vote has proven to be an accurate way to forecast momentum. Monitoring early voting becomes a reliable precursor to forecasting which party will do better when all ballots are counted. Unfortunately, for Tuesday’s election, Mississippi is one of the three states that has no early voting program. Kentucky only allows in-person early voting on the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before the election so early trends are not available in those two states.

The Virginia numbers for the state’s legislative races are interesting. As reported through Nov. 2 from the Target Smart organization, Republican early voting is up three percentage points when compared to the party’s 2021 performance, while Democrats are down 2.7 percent under the same model. Unaffiliated voters are down 0.4 percent from their 2021 performance statistics. Democrats, however, still have more people casting their ballots than do Republicans and unaffiliated voters (52.2 percent of early ballots come from Democrats, 32.7 percent from Republicans, and 15.0 percent from the unaffiliated segment).

The Virginia Public Access Project also charts the pre-election voting. In addition to the early vote by party, they also track the early in-person vote. Here, Republicans have clear momentum for the Tuesday legislative elections. Compared to the 2021 turnout (numbers are recorded in 2021 and 2023 at the 16-day before election mark), Republican early in-person turnout is up 7.4 percentage points, while Democratic early in-person participation is down 6.3 points. Again, however, more Democrats than Republicans have voted, but the comparison within each party’s previous performance has routinely proven significant.

Former Congressman Announces Comeback Attempt; Reps Buck, Granger to Retire; Utah Governor Challenged for Renomination

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 3, 2023

House

Former Arizona Congressman Trent Franks (R) announces comeback attempt. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

AZ-8: Former Congressman Announces Comeback Attempt — Trent Franks (R), who was elected eight times to the House but was forced to resign when it was discovered that he was asking two female staff members to be surrogate mothers for he and his wife, announced that he will enter the open 8th District race next year with the goal of succeeding his successor. Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), who won the seat in a 2018 special election after Franks’ resignation, is retiring.

Franks’ reappearance in Arizona politics is a surprise, and he is certainly no lock to win the August 2024 Republican primary. Already, nine other Republicans have declared their candidacies, including 2022 US Senate nominee Blake Masters, state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria), 2022 Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, and state Sen. Anthony Kern (R-Paradise).

CO-4: Rep. Ken Buck (R) to Retire — Five-term Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election next year. Saying, “I always have been disappointed with our inability in Congress to deal with major issues and I’m also disappointed that the Republican Party continues to rely on this lie that the 2020 election was stolen & rely on the 1/6 narrative.” Rep. Buck has been an outspoken critic of his party in recent weeks, and his retirement is unsurprising. He had been rumored to be looking at potential media commentator openings as a Republican on the liberal CNN and MSNBC channels.

The 4th District, which covers most of eastern Colorado, is the strongest Republican seat in the state. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+26. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a 58-40 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks CO-4 as the 115th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

TX-12: Rep. Kay Granger (R) to Retire — The third US House member to announce a retirement in the past two days is House Appropriations Committee chair Kay Granger (R-TX). She also announced Wednesday that she will not seek a 15th term next year. Before winning the 1996 congressional election, Granger served as mayor of Ft. Worth. Rep. Granger’s announcement follows those of Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) and Ken Buck (R-CO), who also will retire at the end of the current Congress.

The 12th District is anchored in the city of Ft. Worth, which covers approximately 31 percent of Tarrant County, and then stretches west to annex about 80 percent of Parker County. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-12 as R+24. Former President Trump carried the district with a 58-40 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks TX-12 as the 108th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.

There are now 24 open seats in the next election. Of those, 15 are currently Democratic held, eight are Republican, and one is an Alabama seat that the new redistricting plan created.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox (R) Challenged for Renomination — State representative and former San Juan County Commissioner Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), who was jailed at one point for misdemeanor trespassing (in relation to a land use protest) and includes his mugshot in his campaign announcement video, will challenge incumbent Republican Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s party nominating convention, and possibly the June 25 primary.

In Utah, the party convention can send two candidates directly to the primary election with at least 40 percent delegate support. Candidates can also petition onto the ballot by obtaining 28,000 registered voters’ signatures. Since Lyman is campaigning against Gov. Cox from the right, he may be able to reach the 40 percent plateau in a convention where the vast majority of delegates are to the right of the incumbent. Gov. Cox should still be favored to prevail in a primary fight, however, as well as in the general election.

Trump Well Below 50 Percent in Iowa; Primary Pairing Develops in AL-1; Missouri Candidate Leaves Senate Race to Run for House; West Virginia Governor Candidate Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump speaks in Las Vegas Saturday. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Iowa: Trump Well Below 50 Percent, Again — According to the new Selzer & Company poll for the Des Moines Register newspaper (Oct. 22-26; 404 likely Iowa Republican Caucus attenders; live interview), former President Donald Trump is still enjoying a healthy lead over the Republican field, but his support level continues to become stagnant. According to this survey, he has 43 percent of the impending Iowa Caucus vote, scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024. This is a one-point increase from Selzer’s August survey. Tied for second place are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-UN Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Both record 16 percent support.

The allegiance percentage is an increase of 10 points since the August survey for Haley but a three-point drop for Gov. DeSantis. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who has now moved his whole campaign focus to Iowa, draws a seven percent preference. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are tied in this poll with four percent apiece.

House

AL-1: GOP Primary Pairing Develops — The recently completed court-driven Alabama congressional map creates a new majority minority district anchored in the capital city of Montgomery, but then stretches southwest to encompass downtown Mobile. Now we see that the draw results in a pairing of two Republican congressmen. Two-term Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announced Monday that he will challenge Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), also serving his second term, in the state’s new 1st District. The seat now spans the entire width of southern Alabama from the Mississippi border all the way to Georgia.

This will be a short-term paired campaign in that the Alabama state primary is held concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential vote on March 5. Should no one receive majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an April 2 runoff election.

This version of AL-1 favors Rep. Carl in that he already represents 59 percent of the new territory as compared to 41 percent for Rep. Moore. The former also leads in fundraising and cash-on-hand. According to the Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure filing. Rep. Carl reported raising $1.3 million for the campaign-to-date; $257,000 in the 3rd Quarter just completed and holds $869,000 in his account.

By contrast, Rep. Moore has raised just $309,000 during the cycle-to-date, $109,000 for the Q3 period, and shows $647,000 cash-on-hand. Rep. Moore, a member of the Freedom Caucus, may be viewed as the more conservative of the two, which often proves to be the defining factor in a safe district Republican primary.

MO-1: Democratic Prosecutor Exits Senate Race to Run for House — St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell (D) who was challenging for the Democratic US Senate nomination, announced Monday that he is ending his statewide bid and will instead run a primary challenge against Democratic Socialist Congresswoman Cori Bush (D-St. Louis).

Four Democrats opposed Rep. Bush in the 2022 election, two years after she upset veteran Rep. Lacy Clay (D), but she was easily renominated with 69.5 percent of the primary vote.

Bell will be a credible challenger, but Rep. Bush must be viewed as the favorite for renomination and then an easy re-election in a 1st District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+52.

Governor

West Virginia: First Credible Dem Candidate Announces — Though Democrats are viewed as a clear underdog to convert the open West Virginia governor’s mansion next year, the party now has a candidate capable of running a credible general election campaign. Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D) announced his candidacy late last week. He is a former state Delegate and ex-Huntington City Manager.

Republicans are headed for a competitive gubernatorial primary among Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), Secretary of State Mac Warner, and businessman Chris Miller. Capito is the son of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Mr. Miller is US Rep. Carol Miller’s (R-Huntington) son.

Biden to Get Challenger; New OR-5 Candidate; Conflicting Polls in Kentucky; Presley Gaining Ground

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 27, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Dean Phillips: Apparently Will Challenge President Biden — The Wall Street Journal is reporting that three-term Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) is reportedly prepared to file to enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary to challenge President Joe Biden. Rep. Phillips has been calling for other Democrats to oppose the president for the party nomination, and now he is prepared to take up the mantel. Conversely, Biden’s campaign announced that the president will not participate in the New Hampshire primary, saying that he will “follow the rules” that he proposed to the Democratic National Committee that changes the progression of pre-Super Tuesday states.

It is likely we will see Biden’s New Hampshire supporters initiate a write-in effort for the president, but Rep. Phillips could still be positioned to win the state in a primary that has yet to be scheduled. The only two reasonable dates available that would keep the state as the first-in-the-nation primary is Jan. 23, because state law dictates that their primary not only be first, but also a week before any other.

House

OR-5: Dem Governor Endorses a New Candidate — Gov. Tina Kotek (D) this week announced her endorsement of state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) in the 5th Congressional District Republican primary, thus eschewing 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner who received 49 percent of the vote against now freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

Going into the general election, McLeod-Skinner was tabbed as the favorite to retain the seat for the party after she upset then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary.

Therefore, her performance against Chavez-DeRemer was deemed an under-performance. This explains why the Democratic leadership would be looking to change nominees for the 2024 election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3. President Biden carried the seat 53-44 percent. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OR-5 as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Conflicting Polls — As we draw closer to the Nov. 7 gubernatorial election in Kentucky, recent polling shows a major difference regarding the size of Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) lead over Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R).

The co/efficient survey research firm polling for the Bluegrass Freedom Action Fund (Oct. 18-19; 1,845 likely Kentucky general election voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Beshear’s lead dissipating. According to this survey, the ballot test has closed to 47-45 percent. Garin-Hart-Yang Research, however, conducted an internal survey for the Beshear campaign several days earlier and found a different result. The poll (Oct. 14-16; 741 likely Kentucky general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Beshear holding a 52-44 percent advantage. The Kentucky election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

This election, and the governor’s contest in Mississippi, could become precursors for next year’s regular election if the voters follow the Louisiana lead. The Oct. 14 gubernatorial election in the latter state opened eyes when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry scored an upset outright win on Oct. 14. Polling consistently showed Landry leading, but with a percentage much lower than his final showing. Democrat Shawn Wilson finished well below his research projections. Gov. Beshear is favored to win re-election, but if co/efficient is correct, this race could be headed for a photo finish.

Mississippi: Presley Gaining Ground — Democrats are releasing a new Public Policy Polling internal survey (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds their nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is a second cousin to the late Elvis Presley, pulling to within one point of Gov. Tate Reeves (R), 46-45 percent.

Again, the turnout and voter swing dynamics that we saw in Louisiana might also play a role here. If so, we could be seeing a positive Republican trend. If not, then the Louisiana results would be considered an outlier. Additionally, the 2019 featuring then-Lt. Gov. Reeves and then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), produced similarly close polling within the last month of the campaign. In the end, Reeves posted a 52-47 percent victory.

Independent Gwendolyn Gray is also on the ballot. She could be significant in a close race between the major party contenders by keeping the leader under 50 percent. If no one receives majority support, a secondary runoff election will be held on Nov. 28.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.