Tag Archives: Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.