Tag Archives: North Carolina

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.

Two Major Senate Questions
Answered: Michigan, North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 25, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Republicans have caught a break.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) / Photo by Daigas Mieriņas vizīte ASV

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.

Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.

In the 2024 race, Rogers proved a weaker early fundraiser and never reached resource parity with his Democratic opposition. While eventual winner Elissa Slotkin outspent Rogers $51 million to $12 million, outside organizations somewhat closed the deficit gap with $78 million coming into the state to aid Rogers while Slotkin supporters spent $65 million.

After the 2nd Quarter filing for the 2026 campaign, the three major Democratic candidates’ (US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) recorded an aggregate $6.7 million in campaign receipts compared to Mr. Rogers’ $1.1 million.

Therefore, considering the continuing financial disparity among the Michigan Democrats and Republicans, Rep. Huizenga deciding not to pursue a challenge to Rogers for the party’s Senate nomination is an even greater help to the GOP team since they won’t have to issue major expenditures during the primary cycle.

Another advantage Rogers will have as a consensus candidate, in addition to being able to pool his lesser resources for just one campaign, is having until Aug. 4, 2026, to draw largely unencumbered contrasts with the Democrats who will be battling among themselves for their own party nomination.

The unfolding candidate developments again underscore that the open Michigan Senate race will become one of the premier national Senate races next year.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats also have caught a break.

According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.

Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term.

The Senate move also suggests that Cooper will not launch a presidential campaign in 2027. This becomes particularly good news for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who is clearly moving along the presidential track and thus foregoing a bid for his own state’s open Senate seat. Several more Governors, or recently replaced state chief executives, are also contemplating between running for Senate and President, and it is thought that most will enter the national race.

The real advantage to a potential Beshear presidential campaign is now having the clear opportunity of uniting the southern states in a fight for the party nomination, thus becoming a very strong regional candidate. This strategy would not have worked had Cooper joined the race also operating from a southern base.

If the above presidential scenario plays out as depicted, it would also provide a boost to the Kentucky GOP. Beshear heading to the national campaign means the state’s open Senate race will now almost assuredly remain in GOP hands since the Governor was realistically the only Kentucky Democrat who could put the open Senate campaign into play.

Now the North Carolina focus turns to Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley; with presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump stepping aside. Ms. Trump said during the week that she would decide whether to return to her home state to run for the Senate by Thanksgiving, but the Cooper decision to enter the Senate race earlier than expected, along with the state’s voter registration deadline, shortened the GOP announcement timeline. Yesterday, Whatley announced he would run; had Ms. Trump decided to run, she would have, like ex-Gov. Cooper on the Democratic side, a clear run for the party nomination. That, however, is now moot. Ms. Trump posted on X that “After much consideration and heartfelt discussions with my family, friends, and supporters, I have decided not to pursue the United States Senate seat in North Carolina at this time. I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state whom I love so much.”

North Carolina always features close races, and a 2026 US Senate race even with ex-Gov. Cooper leading the Democratic ticket will prove highly competitive.

While Cooper was an overwhelming favorite to win re-election as Governor in 2020, he ended with only 51 percent of the vote in clinching the second term. This means his average gubernatorial vote in his two elections was exactly 50 percent. In his three contested terms for Attorney General (2004, 2008, 2012), Cooper averaged a 56 percent support factor. In the 2016 election, Cooper ran unopposed for election to a fourth consecutive term.

NC Sen. Thom Tillis to Retire;
VA-11 Special General Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 30, 2025

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

In a surprise announcement while tensions were rising over passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, North Carolina’s two-term incumbent Thom Tillis (R) who had already announced for re-election, abruptly declared over the weekend that he will not run in 2026.

North Carolina was already going to host one of the most competitive races in the country considering its history of often posting close election results. It was also clear that Sen. Tillis was the top incumbent Republican target.

While the state’s perennial competitiveness factor isn’t changing, the candidate list will now be very different than expected. To date, Sen. Tillis was drawing only minor Republican primary opposition, though, that would have changed with President Trump pledging to find a GOP candidate to oppose him, while Democrats are working to attract a big name nominee.

Democrats already have former Rep. Wiley Nickel as an announced candidate. Nickel passed on re-election to a second term in a restructured 13th District seat and instead declared in 2023 that he would run for the Senate. Irrespective of Nickel’s status, the Democratic leadership has been trying to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper into the Senate race, and we will soon see if the Tillis retirement spurs a decision from the former state chief executive.

In addition to its two Republican Senators, North Carolina has 10 statewide elected offices and both parties each hold five offices. The more prominent state officials, i.e., Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, are all Democrats, however.

Sen. Tillis’s retirement will change the North Carolina and national political situation for both parties, and this open Senate race will be one of the 2026 election cycle’s key focal points.

VA-11

Local Northern Virginia Democratic and Republican parties hosted their “firehouse primaries” on Saturday that produced special general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in March.

For the Democrats, who dominate Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (who received the Connolly family’s endorsement and had served for 11 years as Rep. Connolly’s chief of staff) was easily nominated in Saturday’s primary, capturing 60 percent of the vote. State Delegate Irene Shin (D-Herndon) was a distant second with 14.3 percent while state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) attracted 13.4 percent.

On the Republican side, former FBI agent and Iraq War veteran Stewart Whitson was the plurality “firehouse primary” winner, though GOP turnout, as expected within this overwhelmingly Democratic district, was only a fraction of their political rivals’. According to the Fairfax County local news site, Inside NOVA, 37,624 voters participated in the Democratic firehouse primary as opposed to the Republicans’ 2,601 ballots cast.

The “firehouse primary” is a creation of Virginia politics. In this system, all voters may participate but the polling place locations are very limited, making it more difficult to vote than the usual process of simply going to one’s regular precinct voting site.

Walkinshaw and Whitson now advance to the Sept. 9 special general election that will be held under regular logistics where voters cast their ballots at the precinct polling place. An early voting process will also be offered.

Clearly, in a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 67.2D – 30.7R (Trump ’24: 31.4 percent), Walkinshaw becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Connolly.

The Virginia election is the first of the four special elections that we will see in the coming months.

The next special nomination contest will occur in Arizona when voters in the Tucson area will select general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who also passed away in March.

The late Congressman’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is the clear favorite to win the special Democratic primary on July 15. The special general will be conducted on Sept. 23. As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th CD is heavily Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R; (Trump ’24: 38.4 percent).

Houston voters will participate in a jungle primary concurrent with the Texas municipal elections on Nov. 4 to begin to select a replacement for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), the third member to pass away in March.

In that election, voters will choose from a large developing field including candidates from all parties and those running as Independents. If no one receives majority support in the initial election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special runoff vote. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean in this district is also overwhelmingly Democratic, 73.6D – 24.4R (Trump ’24: 29.4 percent), making TX-18 the Lone Star State’s second-safest Democratic seat.

The fourth special election will occur at some point in Tennessee. Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) said he will resign from the House after the President’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in fully enacted. Once the resignation is official, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then schedule the replacement special election.

Unlike the other three vacant, or soon-to-be vacant, seats, TN-7 is safely Republican. The partisan lean in this western Tennessee district is 55.1R – 42.1D (Trump ’24: 60.4 percent).

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.