2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin
By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024
2024 Election Results
The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.
Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.
With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.
In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.
It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.
A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.
California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.
Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.
Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.
Outstanding Seats
The races not yet called are:
- AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
- AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
- CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
- CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
- CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
- CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
- CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
- CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
- CA-47 (Open seat-D)
- CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
- CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
- OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
- WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)
Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).
