Tag Archives: Gov. Spencer Cox

Polls Show Republican Presidential Race Getting Tighter; A Twist in Wisconsin; SCOTUS Rules on Alabama Redistricting; Special Election in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 12, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump still up, but down in polling.

State Polls: Republican Race Getting Tighter — Two very recent Republican presidential state polls were released late last week, one from Wisconsin and the other in Utah. While the Wisconsin spread is typical of what we are seeing in other places, the Utah poll has closed to within one percentage point.

Public Policy Polling (June 5-6; 507 likely Wisconsin voters) sees former President Donald Trump leading the Wisconsin GOP primary but with well less than majority support. The ballot test gives the former president a 41-25 percent lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence is next with eight percent support, and no one else breaks five percent. In an isolation question featuring Trump and DeSantis, the former pPresident leads this only 43-39 percent.

The Utah numbers are much closer. In this Dan Jones & Associates poll for the Utah Republican Party (May 22-June 1; 421 registered Utah Republican voters), Trump’s advantage is only 27-26 percent over Gov. DeSantis.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, not even a candidate, places third with seven percent, and no other candidate breaks the five percent mark. However, this poll’s long sampling period and small respondent universe, along with the introduction of Cheney into the mix, casts an accuracy shadow over this poll.

Senate

Wisconsin: Polling Leader Emerges; Not the GOP’s Top Choice — The Wisconsin Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the state’s US Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D).

The Republican primary ballot test suggests that former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke would lead a prospective group of GOP candidates with 40 percent preference. Placing second is Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) with 20 percent, followed by Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) at 10 percent. Clarke is not an official candidate, and viewed as someone who would be unlikely to win the general election. So far, Rep. Gallagher has not made a discernible move to enter the Senate race. Rep. Tiffany is testing the waters.

The Wisconsin race could become competitive, but Sen. Baldwin would begin any general election as the favorite to win in November.

House

Redistricting: SCOTUS Rules on Alabama — The US Supreme Court, on a 5-4 decision with Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh joining the majority, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case. Therefore, the Alabama map will be redrawn to reflect a second minority district from the state’s seven seats. Louisiana will likely have to be redrawn as well.

Possible redraws could occur in several other southern states. The ruling is clearly a win for the Democrats and gives them even better odds of re-capturing the House majority in the 2024 election.

UT-2: Special Election Set — Since Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) submitted an irrevocable letter of resignation for Sept. 15 to Gov. Spencer Cox (R), that action has allowed the state’s chief executive to set at least the special primary election even before the congressman officially leaves office.

Under Utah law, the governor must schedule the special congressional election concurrent with another election. The municipal elections were scheduled for Aug. 15 and Nov. 7, but Gov. Cox is preparing to send the legislature a measure to change those dates to Sept. 5 and Nov. 21 and add the special congressional election to that ballot. These dates meet the federal electoral notice requirements.

The legislature is expected to comply. If they do not, the 2nd District seat could remain vacant for more than a year awaiting the regular primary schedule.

In this instance, the seat will be filled while Rep. Stewart remains in office, which is similar to the Oklahoma law that allows a resigning elected official to serve until a replacement is selected.

Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent; IA-3 Re-Match Doubtful; Stewart Officially Resigns in Utah; Johnston Wins in Denver

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 9, 2023

Senate

First-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R)

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent — St. Louis County prosecutor and ex-Ferguson City Councilman Wesley Bell (D) announced that he will enter next year’s US Senate race. He joins Iraq/Afghan War veteran and 2022 US Senate candidate Lucas Kunce in the 2024 Democratic primary.

In the ’22 race, Kunce lost the Democratic nomination 43-38 percent to Trudy Busch Valentine, a philanthropist who was a late entry into the campaign. She would then lose to current Sen. Eric Schmitt in the general election by a 55-42 percent count.

The Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary winner will face first-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R) in the general election. Sen. Hawley defeated Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in the 2018 race with a 51.4 – 45.6 percent margin. He is favored for re-election in a state that should lie solidly within the Republican realm during the next election. In 2020, then-President Trump defeated Joe Biden, 57-41 percent, in The Show Me State.

House

IA-3: Re-Match Doubtful — In 2022, then-state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) upset Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) to claim the 3rd District seat. Thoughts of a re-match were routinely discussed, but the latest action suggests one will not occur, at least in 2024. President Biden announced that he has appointed former Rep. Axne as a senior advisor to the Department of Agriculture for rural engagement, delivery, and prosperity.

While this move doesn’t completely eliminate Axne from returning to the political wars, her new position makes it less likely that she will be a candidate in the coming election cycle. Currently, mental health therapist Tracy Limon is the only announced Democratic candidate.

UT-2: Rep. Stewart Resignation Official — Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) made his resignation statement official with a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Wednesday. The congressman, leaving office because of his wife’s health condition, will depart on Sept. 15. Making the resignation official now gives Gov. Spencer Cox (R) more scheduling leeway in calling the replacement special election.

Already, former state representative and 2020 US Senate candidate Becky Edwards (R) has announced her candidacy as has state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). Crowded fields are expected for both parties. Republicans have a big advantage here in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23.

Fox News has reported in association with this story that the Republicans will be down a seat when Stewart departs. This is not accurate. Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned his seat on June 1, meaning the majority margin will be retained with each party missing one member.

Cities

Denver: Johnston Wins Mayoral Election — Former state Sen. Mike Johnston defeated ex-Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough by a 55-45 percent margin to win the open Denver mayor’s position on Tuesday night. Johnston previously ran for governor and US senator after leaving the state legislature.

Though the race was ostensibly non-partisan, Johnston aligned with the Democrats while Brough was closer to the Republicans. Campaign spending was about even between the two contenders, but outside liberal organizations came in to tip the financial advantage towards Johnston.

The mayor-elect will take office on July 17. He replaces three-term incumbent Michael Hancock, who was ineligible to seek another term under the new service limit ordinance the city adopted. In fact, Mayor Hancock will be the city’s final three-term chief executive.

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.

Speculation That Chaffetz Will Run for Office Again in Utah; GOP’s Super Majority in LA; Nunn Challenges in Iowa; Kistner Lining up to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Governor

Utah’s Jason Chaffetz (R)

Utah: Gov. Cox to Seek Re-Election, but Chaffetz is the Story — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) announced on Friday that he will seek a second term next year, but more of the political attention centers around former congressman and current Fox News commentator, Jason Chaffetz (R). There has been much speculation, and not denied, that Chaffetz is considering launching a Republican primary challenge against either Gov. Cox or Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Therefore, it appears the 2024 Utah nomination convention and Republican primary will feature some meaningful political action.

House

IA-3: Swing District Freshman Draws Challenger — Freshman US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) was one of the few challengers to win a House seat in 2022 when he scored a 49.6 – 48.9 percent win over two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines), a margin of 2,145 votes from more than 315,000 ballots cast. On Friday, mental health therapist Tracy Limon (D) announced her congressional candidacy, the first individual to come forward for the 2024 election. This could be a signal that former Rep. Axne will not return for a re-match, since the Democratic primary would likely be cleared for her if she desired to make a comeback.

MN-2: Kistner Considers Third Run — Navy veteran and businessman Tyler Kistner (R) has lost two close congressional races to Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and confirms that he is considering launching another re-match in 2024. The 2020 election proved his better showing, losing 48-46 percent. In the redistricted 2nd District, which now stretches from the Wisconsin border southwest to include the southern St. Paul and Minneapolis suburbs, the result was not as close, 51-46 percent, in the congresswoman’s favor. A Kistner third run would not likely change the result, as he received 46 percent in both of his elections. Republicans might find more success in 2024 with a fresh candidate.

States

Louisiana: Party Switch Gives Rs Super Majority — State Rep. Francis Thompson of Dehli is the longest-serving state legislator in Louisiana state history, being first elected in 1975. On Friday, he left the Democratic Party and became a Republican. The move gives the Republicans a two-thirds majority in the House, and makes it easier to override Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ vetoes. The move won’t change many issue voting patterns, however, since Rep. Thompson has always been one of the more conservative legislators. During his tenure in the legislature, Thompson has served in both the House and Senate.