Tag Archives: Gov. Ron DeSantis

Good News / Bad News for DeSantis; Pastor Withdraws in Arizona;
A Challenger in GA-13

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 25, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Photo by Gage Skidmore

Iowa: Selzer & Company Releases Survey — The Hawkeye State’s proven most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company, released a pre-debate poll in partnership with NBC News and the Des Moines Register newspaper. This research study provides some needed good news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his 66 percent positive rating is the best of any presidential candidate, although only one percentage point better than former President Donald Trump.

Trump still leads the first choice ballot test, however, with 42-19-9-6-6 percent split over Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. He tops Gov. DeSantis by only two points when first, second, and “considering” categories are added and assigned an aggregate point value. The Iowa Republican Caucus is scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024.

New Hampshire: DeSantis Drops to Fourth — The Granite State Echelon Insights data (8/15-17; 800 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees former President Donald Trump leading the pack of candidates with a rather low support factor of 34 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was second with 14 percent, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy follows in third position at 11 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts a disappointing nine percent.

It is likely the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, eight days after the Iowa Caucus and 11 days before the South Carolina Democratic primary. The South Carolina Republicans will vote on Feb. 24, followed by the Michigan primary three days later. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, 2024.

Senate

Nevada: Brown Leads in First Primary Poll — Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Duty First Super PAC, an organization supporting candidate Sam Brown (R), released the result of their first Nevada Senate Republican primary survey (Public Opinion Strategies; Aug. 15-17; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; live interview). The results find Brown, an Afghan War veteran, leading former state assemblyman and frequent candidate Jim Marchant, 33-15 percent, with five other announced candidates failing to reach even the three percent support plateau.

Brown, the 2022 US Senate candidate who raised over $4 million for his unsuccessful primary effort against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and now has National Senate Republican Committee chairman Steve Daines’ endorsement, also leads in all segmentation divisions. Most importantly, of the respondents who are familiar with both Brown and Marchant, the former leads the latter by a strong 59-21 percent cut. The Nevada primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign.

House

AZ-3: Laura Pastor (D) Withdraws — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), whose late father, Ed Pastor (D), represented Phoenix in the US House for 12 terms, announced that she is withdrawing from the open seat race to replace present incumbent Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Ms. Pastor says her withdrawal is due to a non-life threatening health issue, but one serious enough to force her from the campaign trail.

With Congressman Gallego running for Senate, the Democratic primary will determine the 3rd District’s next Representative. At this point, four Democrats have announced for the seat including Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-3, which is wholly contained within Maricopa County, as D+44. The Arizona primary is late, scheduled for August 6, 2024, so much can happen to change the race between now and the April 8, 2024, candidate filing deadline.

GA-13: Rep. David Scott Draws Dem Primary Challenger — Veteran Georgia US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) surprised many by recently announcing he would run for a 12th term. Now, he has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. East Point Utility Board chairman Mark Herring did not attack Rep. Scott in his announcement address, only saying he is running to make a “positive difference.” Others are expected to join, thus creating a multi-candidate Democratic primary.

GA-13 is another district where winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+52. Rep. Scott faced three Democrats in the 2022 congressional primary, winning with 66 percent of the vote. In 2020, however, the outcome was much tighter as he avoided a runoff with just 52.9 percent, again opposite three opponents.

Republicans Debate but Biden Leads

The Fox News Republican debate stage in Milwaukee. / Fox News Photo

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023

President

Republicans Debate: But What About Biden? — While last night’s Republican presidential debate featured a livelier discussion than many expected, a new national poll continues to find that President Joe Biden leads his Republican opposition despite a majority believing he is unfit for the job.

The GOP candidates sans Donald Trump gathered in Milwaukee, debating in the very arena that will host the 2024 Republican National Convention. Post-debate analysis seemed to indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy performed best.

Perhaps the evening’s biggest surprise was who the other candidates attacked and who stood above the fray. Ramaswamy, moving up in the polls to the point where most Republican ballot tests see him in third place if not second, was the participant the others routinely targeted. The harshest attacks came from former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley about his inexperience in the political arena and lack of foreign affairs knowledge, respectively.

While pre-debate predictions suggested that Gov. DeSantis would be under heavy attack, no one launched any verbal assault in his direction.

Yesterday, a new YouGov survey for the Economist publication was released. The international online pollster regularly polls for the Economist, featuring long and largely issue-based questionnaires.

This particular survey (Aug. 19-22; 1,500 US adults; 1,309 registered voters; online) again produces a familiar response pattern. President Biden scores poorly, but still leads the tested Republicans in general election ballot tests.

Overall, the Biden job approval ratio is 41:54 percent favorable to unfavorable. Pertaining to isolated issues, the president fails to score in positive territory on any tested question.

He records a 40:51 percent positive to negative ratios on jobs and the economy; 31:58 percent on immigration; 38:49 percent for his handling of foreign policy; 41:47 percent concerning national security; 40:45 percent in relation to education; 33:52 percent on crime; 32:49 percent about criminal justice reform; and 33:59 percent regarding inflation.

Yet, turning to a straight ballot test question when individually paired with former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis, the respondents still favor Biden for re-election.

In a YouGov national survey conducted just before the one analyzed above (Aug. 17-21; 1,665 US adults; 1,115 registered voters; online) the president scores a 47-41 percent split opposite Trump and posts a 45-40 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis.

This is consistent with the aforementioned survey that finds 44 percent of those respondents saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent for the eventual Republican nominee. On the generic congressional vote, the results are similar with 45 percent choosing the Democratic congressional candidate while 42 percent would support the Republican.

The presidential ballot test numbers are somewhat astonishing in that just 50 percent of questioned Democrats and Independents say they want to see President Biden renominated and only 26 percent of the entire polling sample believes Biden is “fit to serve another term as president.”

Furthermore, of those who feel the president is unfit for another four year term, 34.4 percent say he is “incompetent,” 27.6 percent believe he is “too old,” and 20.7 percent label him as “corrupt.”

Yet, with these negative impressions, a strong majority of Democrats and Independents (69 percent) would vote to renominate him in the party primary, and he records an average 5.5 percentage point edge over the two leading Republican nomination candidates.

These numbers, which are consistent when perusing various polls, suggest that the Republicans must develop a more compelling message if they hope to overcome the president’s current re-election advantage. This, despite majorities from the representative samples expressing negative opinions of the current incumbent’s performance.

Debate Prep; Poll Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tonight: GOP Debate — The first GOP presidential forum will be held tonight in Milwaukee, and it appears the Republican National Committee’s debate requirement criteria failed to meet its principal intended goal.

The chief reasons for instituting the debate qualification menu:

  • Reaching at least one percent support in a minimum of three post-July 1st polls with 800 or more respondents
  • Having 40,000 financial donors
  • Signing a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee …

… among other party related items, became easier to obtain than initially anticipated. The purpose of having requirements was to keep most minor candidates out, thus limiting the participants to a small number of major candidates.

At this time, it appears at least eight candidates will be on stage Wednesday night. The national leader, former President Donald Trump, is saying he won’t attend and refuses to sign the loyalty pledge that irrespectively should eliminate him. Without Trump among the participants, however, the debate will lose much of its luster, not to mention ratings for host Fox News.

The eight who apparently have earned a podium spot are:

  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  • Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND)
  • Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence
  • Ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
  • Ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Businessman Perry Johnson has also reportedly eclipsed the financial requirement but failed on the polling qualification.

Meeting the financial requirement became easier when Gov. Burgum, and then several others, ran an end-run around the requirement by concocting the idea of paying for $1 contributions and receiving a $20 gift card in exchange. The move was able to qualify several candidates who initially appeared incapable of pulling together such a donor portfolio within a limited time frame.

We are now seeing definitive movement in polling responses. While Trump continues to lead in all polls by substantial margins, the last five national polls have all found Ramaswamy finishing in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling. Simultaneously, Gov. DeSantis has lost considerable polling support.

The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview), Quinnipiac University’s national survey (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview), and Insider Advantage (Aug. 19-20; 750 likely US Republican primary voters; live interview) each project Ramaswamy as placing third behind Trump (Fox, 53 percent; Q-Poll, 57 percent; Insider, 51 percent) and Gov. DeSantis (Fox, 16 percent; Q-Poll, 18 percent; Insider, 10 percent).

The RMG Research and Emerson College surveys find Ramaswamy doing even better. In RMG’s latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 US registered voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ eight percent. Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

The Emerson College Poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), again found the self-identified Republicans favoring Trump who posted 56 percent support in this poll, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

The polling bump that Ramaswamy demonstrates suggest that he may leave the first debate attracting even more support since he will have a more prominent podium position and, without Trump in the mix, has the opportunity to establish himself as the most talked-about candidate in the post-debate analysis. Conversely, with his stronger recent polling performance, the pressure to become a star participant tonight is significant.

Ramaswamy Rises in Polling; Rep. Slotkin Struggles for Recognition; Rep. Ilhan Omar Draws Opponent; Republican Withdraws in Ohio Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy gets a polling boost. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ramaswamy: Fourth Poll Sees Presidential Candidate Moving to Top Tier — Late last week we reported on three separate Republican primary surveys that placed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling and crossing the double digit threshold in each. Now, Emerson College arrives at a similar conclusion to those of Fox News, CBS News, and RMG Research.

Their poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), surveying the self-identified Republicans, shows former President Donald Trump again topping the field with 56 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

Senate

Michigan: New Poll; Similar Close Result: Regular Michigan media pollster EPIC-MRA went into the field to test a potential open Michigan Senate general election between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former seven-term US Congressman Mike Rogers (R). The poll (Aug. 6-11; 600 likely Michigan voters; live interview) sees Rep. Slotkin leading Rogers, 42-37 percent, which is similar to Emerson College’s Michigan poll (Aug. 1-2; 1,121 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found a 44-38 percent ballot test between the pair.

Both candidates are relatively unfamiliar to the statewide respondent sample. A total of 54 percent of poll respondents said they did not recognize Rep. Slotkin, and 72 percent responded in the same way when asked about Rogers. Rogers left office at the beginning of 2015. Slotkin was first elected to the House in 2018.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar Draws Dem Primary Challenge — Attorney and non-profit organization founder Sarah Gad (D), who overcame opioid addiction to attend law school and pass the bar, becomes the first individual to enter the 2024 Minnesota Democratic primary against controversial three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

In 2022, Rep. Omar found herself in a very tight primary campaign, outlasting former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels by just a 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin, a difference of 2,466 votes of 114,567 ballots cast. It’s likely that others, possibly including Samuels, will enter what should be another competitive Democratic primary race.

OH-13: Republican Gilbert Withdraws — Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R), who lost the open Akron anchored 13th Congressional District race to now-freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) last November, announced that she will end her abbreviated 2024 rematch campaign and will instead serve as a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.

The 13th District, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, is competitive and we can expect Republicans to again put forth a strong challenge effort. Currently in the GOP race are Greg Wheeler, who finished second in the 2022 GOP congressional primary and Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg. Former Ohio Republican Party chair and 2022 US Senate candidate Jane Timken indicates she is considering entering this contest.

Ramaswamy Advances in Polling; Romney Support Dips in Utah;
Rep. Boebert’s Colorado Challenge; Significant Candidate Lead in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 21, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Major Move in National Polls — Three new national Republican primary surveys find businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into the top tier within the large field of presidential candidates. The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview) and the Quinnipiac University national surveys (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview) project Ramaswamy as placing third behind former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The RMG Research survey finds Ramaswamy doing even better. In their latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 registered US voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 8 percent. Former President Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

Senate

Utah: Sen. Romney at 30 percent in New GOP Poll — A Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted a month ago but just released just late last week (July 7-18; 598 registered Utah voters; 301 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Utah Sen. Mitt Romney drawing only 30 percent support among a respondent sample of his own Republican primary voters.

Despite the low preference number, Sen. Romney leads a group of potential GOP opponents. Closest to him is Attorney General Sean Reyes, an unannounced Senate candidate, who posted 13 percent support. The two official candidates, state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs posted five and three percent, respectively. When asked of the entire sample whether they believe Sen. Romney should run for re-election, 39 percent answered yes, while 44 percent replied with a negative response.

House

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Republican Challenge — Saying he’s “… not interested in becoming a social media celebrity … I’m interested in helping families and helping businesses and helping communities,” attorney Jeff Hurd entered Colorado’s 3rd District Republican primary hoping to deny two-term incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) renomination. In 2022, then-state Sen. Don Coram challenged her in the party primary but received only 34 percent of the Republican vote.

Should Rep. Boebert win renomination, she will again face a difficult general election against Democrat Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating her in the 2022 general election. This, despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating CO-3 as R+15.

Governor

New Hampshire: Significant Open Primary Polling Leads — Earlier in the week, we covered an Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) that posted former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) to substantial leads over two strong Democratic contenders. Now, we see the primary numbers from this same poll.

According to Emerson, Ayotte would not only lead in the general election, but she opens a definitive edge over who will likely be her chief Republican opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The initial ballot test finds Ayotte leading Morse, 45-9 percent. On the Democratic side, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is staked to a strong 52-15 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after serving what will be four consecutive terms when his tenure expires at the beginning of 2025.

DeSantis Accepts Debate Challenge; Poll Shows Gallego Leading; New NC AG Candidate; Cuellar Starting Early

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 7, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

DeSantis: Accepts Debate Challenge — Gov. Ron DeSantis has accepted the rather unusual debate challenge he received from California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a non-candidate. The idea came from an interview Newsom held with Fox News television host Sean Hannity. The California governor said he would go as long as three hours and not use any notes. He also agreed for Hannity to moderate. Details to follow.

Senate

Arizona: New Poll Finds Rep. Gallego Leading — A new Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) Arizona survey (July 13-17; 1,000 registered Arizona voters; online) finds US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), the likely 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, leading incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), and unannounced Republican candidate Kari Lake. According to the ballot test, Rep. Gallego is staked to a 34-26-25 percent advantage over Sinema and Lake. In this wild card race, as the Noble poll illustrates, all three candidates can craft a victory path.

The good news for Sen. Sinema is that 69 percent of Independents, 57 percent of Republicans, and 43 percent of Democrats say they are extremely willing, very willing, or at least somewhat willing to support her, which is a marked improvement when compared to previous research studies.

House

NC-8: Rep. Bishop to Run for NC Attorney General — As expected, three-term US Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) announced late last week that he will enter the open 2024 race for attorney general in his home state of North Carolina. The move opens his 8th Congressional District, which, for now, is a safe Republican seat. With the North Carolina map slated to be redrawn in early October, we can expect this Charlotte metro open seat to be radically changed.

Rep. Bishop is the 15th House member to announce he won’t be seeking re-election in 2024, and the fifth Republican. Of the 15, only two are retiring. The remainder are seeking other elective offices. The North Carolina attorney general’s office will be open because incumbent AG Josh Stein (D) is running for governor.

TX-28: Rep. Cuellar Starting Early — Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), generally viewed as the most conservative member of the House Democratic Conference, is taking fast action to answer two political questions.

First, if there there is a chance he might switch parties; and second, is he preparing for another Democratic primary challenge? He is clearly staying in the Democratic Party, and he is already working to blunt what could be another intra-party challenge. In the past two election cycles, he edged attorney Jessica Cisneros by a 48.7 – 46.6 percent split in 2020 followed with a bare 50.3 – 49.7 percent win in 2022.

In an attempt to unite the party behind him for the 2024 election, Rep. Cuellar late last week announced endorsements from House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), Democratic Conference chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA), Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and ex-Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC).

Ramaswamy Claims 2nd Place in New Poll; Testing the Waters in Virginia; Brown With Big Lead in Ohio; Houston Mayoral Poll Released

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ohio: Ramaswamy Claims 2nd Place in New Poll — Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy released a new survey of the Buckeye State electorate (July 17-26; 67 registered Ohio voters) and found businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been climbing in recent Republican presidential polls, moving into second place behind former president Donald Trump with 12 percent support, ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who posted only 9 percent. Trump recorded a whopping 64 percent backing.

Since the poll has only 675 total respondents, the unpublished Republican primary sample would be very low. Therefore, the error factor will be quite high. Still, Ramaswamy moving to second place in any survey is affirmation that his campaign is building upward momentum.

House

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger Testing Gov Waters — Reports are surfacing that three-term Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial run in 2025 when incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will be ineligible to seek re-election. Virginia is the only state in the Union that limits its governors to one four-year term. Apparently, she is also considering not seeking re-election to the House in 2024 to conserve resources for the gubernatorial run.

If she does decide to run for governor, leaving the House makes political sense. Her 7th District is politically marginal, and the seat has been reconfigured to the point that her Glen Allen political base is nowhere even close to the 7th CD lines, which is now a district that comes as far north as Prince William County.

Additionally, with Virginia’s more open campaign finance law her ability to transfer funds from her congressional committee to a gubernatorial committee is very favorable. After the 2nd Quarter financial disclosure period closed, Rep. Spanberger reported $1.184 million cash-on-hand.

Senate

Ohio: Sen. Brown Posts Bigger Lead — The aforementioned Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy poll (July 17-26; 675 registered Ohio voters) also tested the important Ohio US Senate race. In this instance, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), contrary to previous studies that showed a very tight race, opens a substantial lead over the Republican field.

In this survey, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) fares slightly better than the rest of the GOP contenders, but is still down double-digits, 45-33 percent. Opposite Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), Sen. Brown’s advantage is a similar 45-32 percent. If businessman Bernie Moreno were the GOP nominee, Sen. Brown would begin with a 45-28 percent lead.

This poll is inconsistent in that the Republican support figure is very low against Sen. Brown while the presidential numbers place the GOP candidates in much better standing against President Joe Biden. The numbers are consistent with Sen. Brown’s support figure, however, when compared to previous surveys. In all published data, Sen. Brown lands in the mid-40s and not particularly close to the 50 percent majority figure.

Cities

Houston: New Mayoral Poll Released — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey of their city’s open mayoral race (July 12-20; 800 likely Houston voters) and found state Sen. John Whitmire (D), who has been in the state legislature since 1973, and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) breaking away from the remaining candidates.

The UoH poll found Sen. Whitmire posting a 34-32 percent edge over Rep. Jackson Lee, with the next closest candidate only at the three percent mark. If no candidate receives majority support in the Nov. 7 nonpartisan election, the two front runners will advance to a runoff on a date scheduled after the initial election, likely for mid-December. Testing a runoff between Sen. Whitmire and Rep. Jackson Lee, the pollsters find the former developing a strong 51-33 percent advantage. Jackson Lee would have to relinquish her US House seat only if she wins the 2023 municipal election.