Tag Archives: former president Donald Trump

Schiff Leads in Two Polls; Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi; Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election; Competitive North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 11, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Schiff Leads in Two Polls — A pair of mid-November polls were released of the California Senate race, and both find Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the pack of open-seat candidates, but by a small margin. If these two polls prove accurate, both Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) would advance into a double-Democratic general election to be decided in November. Former baseball great Steve Garvey is a close third and still could be in position to claim second place in the March 5 all-party jungle primary if he could unite the Republican vote.

Emerson College (Nov. 11-14; 1,000 likely California primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Schiff to a 16-13-10-9 percent advantage over Porter, Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), respectively. The University of California at Berkeley through the Public Policy Institute of California (Nov. 9-16; 1,113 likely California voters; online) conducted an extensive survey that included a ballot test question about the US Senate race. Their results, similar to those Emerson produced, projects Rep. Schiff leading the field by a larger 21-16-10-8 percent spread over Porter, Garvey, and Lee.

House

NY-3: Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi — Though the timing took a bit longer than expected, the Nassau County Democratic Party chairman announced late last week that former US Rep. Tom Suozzi will be the special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). Republicans are expected to name their candidate early this week.

While the prevailing wisdom is that Suozzi is a lock to convert the seat for the Democrats, an Opinion Diagnostics survey suggests the race may be closer than one might expect. The survey, conducted for financial executive Kellen Curry’s (R) campaign (Nov. 30; 900 NY-3 registered voters; text & online) found Suozzi scoring only between 43.3 and 44.9 percent against three potential Republican special election nominees. The three Republicans record percentages between 38.0 and 39.9 percent, thus signaling a potentially competitive special election campaign. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) called the election for Feb. 13.

NC-6: Rep. Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election — Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) announced late last week that she will not file for re-election. Saying, “I would love nothing more than to continue representing our community in Congress. Unfortunately, the egregiously gerrymandered maps do not make this race competitive, and I cannot in good conscience ask people to invest their time, resources and efforts in a campaign that is rigged against us. However, if the impending lawsuits are successful and the general assembly is forced to draw fair congressional districts, I will seek to continue my service to our community.”

The new 6th District would have voted for former President Donald Trump in a 57-41 percent count. Under the Democratic court map, the 6th supported President Joe Biden with a 56-43 percent margin. North Carolina redistricting had gone back and forth for a decade between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. With the Republicans winning the court races in 2022, the court and legislature now approach redistricting legislation from largely the same viewpoint.

Rep. Manning’s retirement means 36 seats are now open for the next election. A total of 22 of the open seats are currently Democratic held, 13 come from the Republican column, and one new seat has been created under the new Alabama court-drawn redistricting plan.

Governor

North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Robinson Still in Front — The open North Carolina governor’s post will feature one of the most competitive such campaigns in the nation. The likely party nominees are Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D). Early polling has given Robinson a slight lead, and the new East Carolina University survey (Nov. 29-Dec. 1; 915 North Carolina registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) draws a similar conclusion. The new numbers find Robinson posting a 44-40 percent general election lead over AG Stein.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Robinson is completing his first term as lieutenant governor, while Stein will be serving his eighth year as attorney general. Stein’s most recent victory was a razor-thin 50.1 – 49.9 percent in 2020 and further suggests that he begins this gubernatorial race in an underdog position.

McCarthy’s Resignation; NY-16 Primary Challenge; NY-17 Primary Challenge Avoided; Disgraced Nashville Mayor Now in House Race; Utah Challenger Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 8, 2023

House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R)

CA-20: Ex-Speaker McCarthy to Resign — With the California candidate filing deadline looming today, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) announced that he will not seek re-election to a 10th term and is leaving Congress at the end of the year. The outcome is not surprising, and one many expected since his ouster as House Speaker two months ago. The McCarthy decision means 35 House seats are now open with seven coming from California alone.

McCarthy’s Bakersfield-anchored district will remain safely in Republican hands, but the question remains as to whether a special election will be called. When the most recent California seat became vacant — San Diego’s Duncan D. Hunter resignation in early 2020 — Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) simply didn’t schedule a special election and the seat remained vacant for the better part of a year.

Since Newsom previously got away with this course of action, it is quite possible he will attempt to again hold the McCarthy seat in abeyance, particularly since the Republican majority is dwindling with the expulsion of Rep. George Santos and Rep. Bill Johnson’s (R-OH) pending resignation.

California’s 20th District draws a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is the safest Republican seat in this heavily blue state. Former President Donald Trump posted a 61-34 percent victory margin here over Joe Biden in 2020. For the regular election, seeing a double-Republican runoff evolve from the all-party jungle primary is a distinct possibility. The two leading potential contenders appear to be state Sen. Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield) and Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield).

NY-16: Primary Challenge Now Official — Earlier in the week, we reported that Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer had filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission and was expected to officially declare his Democratic primary candidacy against two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers). Wednesday, Latimer made his official announcement.

Several key primaries are evolving around the nation, and this challenge is a serious effort. Bowman, himself, came to Congress through unseating an incumbent, veteran Rep. Eliot Engel, in the 2020 Democratic primary, and now the tables may turn in 2024.

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Avoids Primary Challenge — Former Trump White House aide Bill Maloney, who was considering challenging freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) because he believed the congressman was not demonstrating sufficient loyalty toward Trump, now says he will not run. Rep. Lawler is likely to find himself in a very difficult general election campaign, thus making it necessary for him to have an uncontested primary campaign.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-17 as D+7. The district, however, will likely change after a congressional map redraw, so it is likely this Hudson Valley seat will become even more Democratic. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as sixth most vulnerable in the Republican Conference, and is likely to become even more competitive post-redistricting.

TN-7: Disgraced Nashville Mayor Announces Against Rep. Green — Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D), who resigned her position in disgrace as part of a plea deal for misuse of public funds to facilitate an extra-marital affair with a member of her security detail, on Wednesday announced that she will enter the 7th Congressional District Democratic primary. Should she win the nomination election, Barry would then challenge three-term Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.

CD-7 is a safely Republican western Tennessee district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+21. Former President Donald Trump carried TN-7 with a 56-41 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 76th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Rep. Green was re-elected in 2022 with a 60-38 percent victory margin.

Governor

Utah: Another Gubernatorial Primary Challenger Emerges — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) is favored to win a second term next year, but he will first have to out poll now two intra-party opponents. In late October, state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) announced his Republican primary challenge to Gov. Cox, and this week, state Rep. Brian King (R-Salt Lake City) also entered the race.

While Gov. Cox would be favored against multiple candidates on a primary ballot, the candidates will first enter the Utah Republican Party endorsement convention, which can send as many as two candidates to the primary ballot. Not entering the convention, which may be the route Gov. Cox chooses, a candidate would need to recruit 28,000 valid petition signatures in order to compete in the party primary. Expect Gov. Cox to prevail in the nomination process and for re-election next November.

Liz Cheney Considers Candidacy for Presidency; Illinois Candidate Filing Closes; NY-3 Dems Want More Time; McHenry to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023

President

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R) was one of 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Liz Cheney: Publicly Considers Independent Candidacy — Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R) said that she is considering running as an Independent in the presidential race for the purpose of taking votes away from former President Donald Trump.

While Cheney didn’t declare her candidacy, she might find the ballot qualification obstacles much more formidable than she might believe. Not representing a political party with ballot status, an Independent must navigate 51 different requirement systems to earn a nationwide ballot line. This realization will likely discourage several of the candidates who are looking to launch non-affiliated presidential efforts.

House

Illinois: Candidate Filing Closes — Candidate filing for the Illinois March 19 primary has concluded, and several points of note are present. With no Senate race in Illinois this year, the focus of attention will be the presidential race and the US House campaigns as well as other down ballot Land of Lincoln campaigns.

Four delegation incumbents drew no major party general election opposition. Reps. Jesue “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), Jan Schacowsky (D-Evanston), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), and Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) look to have free rides in the general election. Reps. Miller and LaHood also drew no primary opponent.

Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago), running for a 15th term, has five Democratic primary opponents. While the effort against him is serious considering his 2022 renomination percentage was only 51.9, the fact that so many people are on the ballot will split the anti-Davis vote and allow him to win renomination with plurality support. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) sees a primary battle emerging from the party’s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, former state Sen. Darren Bailey.

The most competitive general election race looks to be in the Quad Cities area of western Illinois where freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is likely to face retired circuit judge Joe McGraw (R).

NY-3: Democrats Want More Time to Pick Nominee — A bit of a political surprise has occurred on Long Island. Tuesday was the planned day that former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) was scheduled to be presented as the party’s special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). While Nassau County chairman Jay Jacobs has a virtual monopoly on naming the nominee, he says more time is required to consult with party leaders on the county committee, in addition to US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn), and other prominent Democrats.

Jacobs, who is also the New York State Democratic Committee chairman, further said that the nomination is not a “lock” for any candidate and that contenders in addition to Suozzi are being interviewed before the party committee structure. Republicans are going through the same process. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) set the 3rd District special election for Feb. 13.

NC-10: Rep. Patrick McHenry to Retire — House Financial Services chairman Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman), who is the Speaker Pro Tempore and presided over the election of Speaker Mike Johnson, announced Tuesday that he will not seek an 11th term in the House next year. Term-limited in his chairmanship even if the Republicans hold the majority, Rep. McHenry, still only 48 years old, will end his congressional tenure after 20 years in office.

The McHenry retirement means that 34 seats and counting will be open for the next election. NC-10 should remain safely in Republicans hands (Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 56.6R – 41.3D partisan lean), so the battle to succeed the retiring congressman will lie in the Republican primary. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. If no one reaches 30 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held on May 14.

Trone Leads in NJ Poll; Three-Way Tie in Ohio; Menendez Repercussions; Incumbent Challenge in NY; Early Showdown in Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Rep. Trone Leads in New Internal Poll — The Trone for Senate campaign released an internal Hickman Analytics survey (Nov. 27-30; 1,000 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projects US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) to be leading his top primary competitor in the open Senate race, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, by a 41-34 percent spread.

Rep. Trone, who is largely self-financing his own campaign, has already spent more than $10 million on his statewide effort. The Hickman poll sample consisted of 50 percent white and 42 percent black voters, which may prove an accurate depiction of the Maryland Democratic primary’s racial composition. On the other hand, the sample was weighted heavily toward females, with women comprising 62 percent of the respondent base. This number will prove too high. The Maryland primary is scheduled for May 14.

Ohio: Virtual Three-Way Tie — A new co/efficient poll for the Bernie Moreno (R) Senate campaign finds the Ohio businessman edging ahead of his two Republican opponents, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). Moreno has gained support with a new ad tying him to former President Donald Trump. Still, with the overwhelming majority of respondents classifying themselves as undecided, and the trio of candidates separated by a total of two percentage points, this Republican primary race appears as a pure three-way tie. The Ohio plurality primary is scheduled for March 19.

House

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Gains Endorsement, Fares Poorly in Poll — It appears that freshman New Jersey Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) is absorbing heavy political baggage from his indicted father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D). While just winning the Hudson County Democratic Party’s endorsement, which houses 72 percent of the 8th District’s population and translates into a very favorable primary ballot position, a new Change Research poll (Nov. 28-12/1; 762 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters; online) suggests Rep. Menendez is in trouble for re-nomination.

According to the Change Research results, Rep. Menendez’s favorability index stands at a poor 17:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. In a ballot test with his top Democratic primary opponent, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla who had already raised $400,000 through the end of September, the congressman posts only a 16-13 percent edge. Clearly, this primary challenge will be a race to monitor throughout the early cycle. The New Jersey plurality primary is scheduled for June 4.

NY-16: County Executive Files Congressional Committee — Another hotly contested Democratic primary battle is beginning. On Monday, Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. A formal declaration of candidacy is likely to follow shortly. Latimer will be challenging two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) who himself came to office by denying an incumbent renomination. In 2020, Bowman unseated veteran Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel.

Latimer has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 2005. This includes his time as Westchester County Executive, a state senator, and a state assemblyman. He will be able to command financial resources and clearly has a base of support. Westchester County comprises 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District’s population. Rep. Bowman’s base comes from the African American community, which is a quarter of the resident base but accounts for a far greater percentage in the Democratic primary.

Governor

Virginia: An Early Showdown — A year and one-half before the next Virginia gubernatorial primary election, we already have a brewing contest. In mid-November, US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced she would forego re-election to a fourth term in the US House in order to run in the open 2025 governor’s race. Now, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney has already joined the Democratic primary race with his announcement.

Since Virginia is the only state in the Union that has a one-term limit for its governors, incumbent Republican Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to seek re-election, thus guaranteeing an open contest in 2025.

Key Ramaswamy Aide Switches to Trump; A Year-Long CA-25 Challenge; Mondaire Jones Poised to Return; Ranked Choice Voting in Montana?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 1, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen (Linkedin photo)

Vivek Ramaswamy: Key Aide Switches to Trump — It appears Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign may have already peaked. The campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen, is departing the Ramaswamy camp in order to join former President Donald Trump’s campaign as a strategic consultant. Along with the departures of former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former Congressman Will Hurd, and commentator Larry Elder, it appears the Republican presidential campaign’s winnowing process is well underway.

While former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie seem to be gaining slight momentum in at least some of the early states, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy either remain stagnant or are starting to descend. All indications maintain that the nomination still appears as Trump’s to lose.

House

CA-25: Rep. Ruiz Draws Potential Year-Long Democratic Challenger — As the Dec. 8 California candidate filing deadline draws near, we see political moves being made across the state. Indio Mayor Oscar Ortiz (D) on Wednesday announced a challenge to six-term US Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio). Ortiz’s entry into the race could mean that this competition will last all the way through the general election. Under California’s all-party top-two qualifying system, two members of the same party can advance into the general election.

California’s 25th District occupies the far southeastern sector of the state and touches the Mexican border. The seat includes Imperial County and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+12, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-25 as the 64th-most vulnerable Democratic seat in the party conference. Considering the announced Republican candidates appear weak, seeing a double-Democratic general election from this district is a distinct possibility.

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Gets Clear Shot — Former one-term Congressman Mondaire Jones (D), who left the Rockland/Westchester County district to unsuccessfully seek re-election in New York City, has returned to upstate New York to again run for Congress. It now appears that he will have a clear shot to again become the Democratic standard bearer.

Former local school board member Liz Gereghty (D), the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), announced Wednesday that she will leave the campaign trail. The Gereghty move all but assures that Jones will return to oppose GOP freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in one of the nation’s top challenger races.

NY-17 is a district that President Joe Biden carried by just over 10 percentage points. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-17 as the sixth-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Additionally, there is a good chance that a new redistricting map could make this seat even more Democratic.

States

Montana: State Supreme Court Rules Top Four Prop to Ballot — Overruling Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), the Montana state Supreme Court directed that the ballot proposition changing the state’s primary to an all-party top four system, similarly found in Alaska, will be placed before the voters next year. The system places all candidates for partisan office on one primary ballot, and the top four finishers, regardless of percentage attained or political party affiliation, will advance into the general election.

The problem with the Montana system is that Ranked Choice Voting, used in other places to determine the general election outcome if no candidate receives majority support, has already been made illegal for Montana elections via the legislature and governor. The purpose of the top four system, according to its proponents, was to create a system that produces a majority vote winner. At this point, it does not appear that the Montana top four system, even if adopted, will guarantee such an outcome.

Michigan Senate Seat a Toss-Up; Cardenas to Retire; A Dead Heat in CA-47; Utah’s Special Election

The EllisInsight will take a break to enjoy the holiday Thursday and will resume regular publishing Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Toss-Up New Poll — Regular Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA, conducting another survey for the Detroit Free Press newspaper (Nov. 10-16; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) again sees a close US Senate general election. The eventual winner will succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) who is retiring after four terms.

While the presidential ballot test finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 46-41 percent, and with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley posting an 11-point advantage against the incumbent president, US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) still maintains a small margin over both of her leading Republicans — former Congressman Mike Rogers and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig. Against each, Slotkin holds a two-point edge, meaning the open Michigan Senate race could soon be rated as a top-tier 2024 campaign.

House

CA-29: Rep. Tony Cardenas to Retire — Six-term California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) announced Monday that he will not seek re-election next year. Cardenas becomes the fifth California House member, and third from Los Angeles County, to voluntarily leave the House at the end of the current Congress.

Democrats will have little trouble holding this heavily Hispanic district (Hispanic population: 61.1 percent). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-29 as D+51, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 77.6D – 20.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 28th safest seat in the Democratic Conference. Immediately upon Rep. Cardenas making his announcement, state Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) announced that she will run for the newly open seat.

CA-47: Dead Heat General Election Polling — The Global Strategy Group just released the results of a late October internal poll conducted for Democrat Joanna Weiss in California’s open 47th Congressional District. The survey (Oct. 24-30; 500 likely CA-47 general election voters) finds both Weiss, an Orange County attorney, and state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) embroiled in dead heats with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). Weiss would nip Baugh, 43-42 percent, while the Republican would hold the same edge over Min.

The pollsters tested the respondent’s reaction to Sen. Min being charged with a DWI violation where he registered a blood alcohol level twice the legal amount. A video of the arrest has also been released. The poll finds that 66 percent of the residents are “deeply concerned” about Sen. Min’s legal situation. His action, however, did not stop the California Democratic Party, at their state convention over the past weekend, from officially endorsing Sen. Min in the congressional race.

Baugh was a general election finalist in the 2022 election, losing to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent count. With Rep. Porter now running for Senate, this open-seat race will be one of the most important in the country toward determining the next House majority.

UT-2: Special Election — The contest to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) concluded yesterday. Republican Celeste Maloy, Rep. Stewart’s formal legal counsel, and Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) were the two main contenders for the seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+23 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks UT-2 as the 81st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Maloy prevailed, securing 58 percent of the vote to Riebe’s 34 percent. There were a handful of other candidates, all of whom registered in the very low single digits. (See results here: The Salt Lake Tribune)

This is a race the Republicans were predicted to win comfortably with a victory percentage in the high 50s. A lesser performance would suggest that translating positive polling into actual votes would continue to be somewhat elusive. That did not happen.

14th Amendment Ruling: Door Open

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 13, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump with former Vice President Mike Pence. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

January 6: Insurrection? — There has been an ongoing argument about whether former President Donald Trump’s actions surrounding the January 6 situation at the US Capitol constitutes “insurrection” as cited in the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment, and last week, a state Supreme Court issued a ruling.

At first glance, it appears that Trump won the Minnesota decision, but reading the chief justice’s decision suggests the issue is not yet firmly decided. Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

The Minnesota State Supreme Court officially dismissed the lawsuit that was attempting to ban Trump from the state’s ballot. The high court ruled that his name be placed on the Republican primary ballot. Obviously, this part of the decision favors the former president.

The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination. Some of the language associated with this narrative suggests that the ultimate decision might be different.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes…[a]nd there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle after Trump becomes the party nominee.
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