Tag Archives: Arizona

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Harris vs. Newsom for President?; Good/Bad News for Sen. Tester; Rep. Lesko to Retire; New Redistricting Maps in North Carolina; VA-10 News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 20, 2023

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic Poll: Harris vs. Newsom — Rumors have been rampant that the Democrats may somehow soon replace President Joe Biden as the party nominee. The Premise survey research company (Oct. 11-16; 1,417 registered US voters; 847 US Democratic registered voters; online) just tested the highly unlikely supposition.

The pollsters paired Vice President Kamala Harris against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many believe that Newsom would be Biden’s hypothetical replacement, but this first poll doesn’t concur. Premise reports a Harris lead over Newsom of 23-15 percent with a huge undecided factor. Expect President Biden to again become the Democratic nominee.

Marist College: First Three-Way Presidential Poll — Marist College, polling for National Public Radio (Oct. 11; 1,218 registered US voters), is the first survey research entity to release a Biden-Trump-Kennedy poll since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would run in the general election as an Independent.

While the Biden-Trump ballot test found President Biden leading 49-46 percent, which is slightly better for the incumbent than most other current national polls, the addition of Kennedy sees the electorate break away from former President Donald Trump to the greater degree. The three-way result is 44-37-16 percent in favor of Biden. The big difference comes in the Independent sector. In a two-way, Independents break toward Trump, 49-43 percent. When Kennedy is added, the Trump-Biden-Kennedy split evolves to 34-33-29 percent, respectively.

Senate

Montana: Good News & Bad News for Sen. Tester — Emerson College surveyed the Montana electorate (Oct. 1-4; 447 registered Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) as part of a series of polls conducted in several states. Here, we see Sen. Jon Tester (D) leading aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) by a close 39-35 percent split. The good news for Sen. Tester in this poll is his maintaining a lead in a state the Republicans must win if they are to claim the Senate majority. The bad news is he fails to even reach the 40 percent plateau.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who most believe will enter the race, was not tested because he is not yet an announced candidate. Former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R) just declared his own candidacy, so he, too, was not included.

House

AZ-8: Rep. Lesko (R) to Retire, Two New Candidate Possibilities — Three-plus term Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) announced that she will not seek re-election to her state’s 8th Congressional District next year.

The congresswoman indicated that time away from her family, including her 94-year-old mother, while expressing frustration saying, “it is hard to get anything done [in Congress],” led to the decision to bring her political career to a close.

Lesko first won election to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, before capturing a state Senate seat in 2014. After US Rep. Trent Franks (R) resigned from Congress, Lesko won the 2018 special election to become his successor. She was re-elected to a full term in the 2018 regular election and easily won two additional terms.

AZ-8 is reliably Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+22. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 57.3R – 40.8D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 8th as the 77th most vulnerable district in the current 221-member GOP Conference. Former President Trump scored a 56.1 – 42.5 percent victory over President Biden here in 2020.

Lesko’s (R-Peoria) retirement announcement has potentially attracted two well known names from the 2022 election cycle. Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide race by just 280 votes of over 2.5 million votes cast, and US Senate nominee Blake Masters are among the Republicans being mentioned as potentially having interest in the newly open congressional seat.

North Carolina: New Redistricting Maps Released — Tar Heel State legislative leaders released two proposed congressional maps for legislators to consider. Both would improve Republican prospects and likely break the current 7D-7R map into a plan that would largely benefit the GOP.

Each map would endanger three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). The first map would likely return a 10R-4D split, while the second plan could conceivably bring the Republicans a 11R-3D division.

The legislators will now have the opportunity to debate the map proposals, consolidate the draws into one map, and amend the bills. Once the legislature passes a final plan, expect the Democrats to sue. The state Supreme Court will likely have to make a final ruling, but this is a much different judicial panel from the one that continued to reject the legislature’s intent during the past decade.

In 2022, Republicans captured a majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, reversing the Democrats’ 4-3 edge. The new court features five Republicans and two Democrats. Getting to the US Supreme Court is a much more difficult exercise because SCOTUS has generally made the state Supreme Courts the redistricting final arbiter.

VA-10: Del. Filler-Corn Switches to House Race — Former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Springfield), who was ousted as minority leader after the Democrats lost the state House majority in the 2021 election, has altered her future political path. Originally saying she was not running for re-election to the state House of Delegates in order to prepare a run for governor in 2025, Filler-Corn announced that she now won’t run statewide but will instead enter the 2024 open 10th Congressional District race.

Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) is retiring due to health considerations. The 10th District will remain in Democratic hands, but next year’s nomination process promises to feature a competitive party primary.

The Kennedy Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

RFK Jr.: Independent Impact — Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that his presidential candidacy would move to the Independent line and away from the Democratic primary, it has been an exercise to predict which states his candidacy might detract from either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

Though Kennedy is stating he will try to win the race as an Independent, the chances of him doing so are slim. Ross Perot, on the Reform Party ballot line in 1992, was the last minor party candidate who was significant in a modern-era presidential race. Perot received 18.9 percent of the national popular vote but won no states, meaning zero electoral votes. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election with 43.0 percent nationally and 370 electoral votes.

The last minor party candidate to secure electoral votes was at the time former Alabama Gov. George Wallace running on the American Independent Party line, back in 1968. He carried five states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi) for a total of 46 electoral votes. Richard Nixon won the ‘68 election with 43.4 percent of the popular vote and 301 electoral votes.

Assuming Kennedy also fails to win a state, there are certain places where his candidacy could still affect the outcome. This means capturing enough votes to tip a state from one of the major party candidates to the other. Using the 1992 race as a model for 2024 because of the minor candidate factor, overlaid with current voting trends, it appears that six states could be in the “Kennedy tip” category.

Such includes four from Biden to Trump; one from Trump to Biden; and one Trump “gettable” state to Biden. Thus, the Kennedy influence could be enough to slightly tip the national general election to Trump or into the House of Representatives to break a tie.

The four states that could flip to Trump are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. In 1992, former President George H.W. Bush carried Arizona, and to win this election Trump is virtually forced to also reverse his fortune from 2020 and carry the Grand Canyon State. In ’92, Bush won the state with a two-point margin over Clinton, while Perot attracted 23.8 percent. While the ’92 race occurred decades ago, the in-play states still exhibit the potential to provide a large number of votes to a minor party or Independent candidate, especially one with universal name identification.

Georgia is a state that must go to Trump if he is to have any chance of winning the general election. In 1992, Clinton carried the Peach State by less than one percentage point, while Perot garnered 13.3 percent of the vote.

Clinton carried the Silver State of Nevada with a three-point margin while Perot’s vote total was 26.2 percent. Should Kennedy also finish within the Perot vote total realm, it is reasonable to believe that more than a net three percentage point margin would come from President Biden’s total, which would likely be enough for Trump to win Nevada and add six electoral votes to his total.

New Hampshire, rated as one of the nation’s states with the greatest swing potential, also falls into the Kennedy tip category. Clinton defeated President Bush here by 1.3 percentage points in ’92, with a 22.6 percent vote factor for Perot. Again, if Kennedy were able obtain well over 20 percent in New Hampshire, a New England state with a strong history of supporting his family, that could tip the state’s four electoral votes to Trump. Only two points more from Kennedy’s aggregate would have to come from Biden’s total for Trump to win the state.

Alaska, however, with its Ranked Choice Voting system, could be a state that Kennedy’s presence could tip to Biden. The Ranked Choice Voting system has played to the Democrats’ favor here, and it may so again should the Kennedy factor be high enough to force the race leader below the 50 percent mark in order to jump-start the ranking procedure.

Finally, Wisconsin will be a major state in the ’24 election. In 1992, it also demonstrated a higher than average vote for Perot (21.5 percent). Clinton carried Wisconsin with a 4.3 v percentictory margin. These totals suggest that if Kennedy finished in the same realm as Perot in the Badger State, that would likely help President Biden.

The above scenario, assuming all other states voted as they did in the 2020 presidential race, would actually create an electoral college tie. Adding Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire and giving up Alaska would give both candidates 269 electoral votes, meaning the election would be decided in the House of Representatives.

Kennedy’s performance in these and several other states could well change the trajectory of the entire presidential race and becomes just one more unique factor in this so far unpredictable campaign.

Rep. Ilhan Omar Again Faces Serious Primary Challenge; Former Navajo Nation President Declares in Arizona; MI-10 Field Grows; North Carolina Redistricting Positioning

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023

House

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) again faces a serious primary challenge. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

MN-5: Rep. Omar Opponent to Return –– Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a tight 50-48 percent Democratic primary victory in 2022, announced he will return for a re-match next year. Expect this to again become a serious primary challenge. Already in the race are attorney Sarah Gad and businessman Tim Peterson, but Samuels is the key challenger. This seat will be decided in the Democratic primary scheduled for Aug. 13. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-5 as D+57.

AZ-2: Former Navajo Nation President Declares for House Seat — Jonathan Nez (D), the former Navajo Nation president who lost his re-election bid in 2022, is now looking to challenge for a congressional seat. He is organizing to oppose freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In 2022, Crane unseated Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in a northern Arizona district that now significantly favors the Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+15. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 53.4R – 44.4D.

MI-10: Dem Challenger Field Grows Larger — Surgeon and former congressional candidate Anil Kumar (D) declared his candidacy in the Detroit suburban 10th Congressional District hoping to oppose freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Kumar is now the seventh Democrat to enter the race. The field includes former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga who held James to a tight 48.8 – 48.3 percent victory in the 2022 general election from a district rated as a pure toss-up. We can expect another tough campaign here next year.

NC-1: Rep. Davis Draws New Opponent Before New Maps are Unveiled — Retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R), who now runs a successful consulting business and has the ability to self-fund her campaign, surprisingly announced her congressional candidacy just before the new North Carolina redistricting maps are set to be released. Freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District could be one of the seats that dramatically changes under the new plan. Three other Republicans had previously announced. The redistricting map will go a long way toward determining the degree of competitiveness of this and several other seats in the Tar Heel State delegation.

NC-6: Rep. Manning to Possibly Face High Point Mayor — Another potential congressional candidate announced his political intention just before the new North Carolina congressional map will soon be made public. High Point Mayor Jay Wagner (R), looking to take advantage of what is very likely to be a more Republican 6th District is the early favorite to become Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) general election challenger. Also in the race is 2022 GOP challenger Christian Castelli who lost to Rep. Manning 54-45 percent in a result that was a bit closer than most observers expected.

What Kari Lake’s Senate Bid Means;
Ex-Michigan Police Chief Out to Early Lead; CA-27 Democrat Drops Bid; NJ-7 Candidate Withdraws; Houston Mayoral Runoff Likely

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023

Senate

Kari Lake (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Kari Lake Announces — As has been anticipated, 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee and former news anchor Kari Lake announced her US Senate candidacy yesterday. She enters what will likely be a three-way race with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), the latter of whom appears to be the consensus Democratic candidate. With Lake officially in the Senate race, 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters will likely withdraw. He announced a 2024 campaign several weeks ago but said he would depart if Lake entered the race.

Kari Lake has created much post-election controversy in Arizona with election fraud accusations, but she is still likely strong enough to win the Republican Senate nomination. Also in the race is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Sen. Sinema has not formally announced her re-election campaign, but she is raising money and taking action to prepare for what will be the most interesting Senate general election in the country. All three candidates will have a path to victory, so the contest officially should be rated a toss-up. This Senate race will attract a great deal of national attention as the election cycle moves forward.

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Jumps Out to Early Lead — Public Policy Polling went into the Wolverine State to test Republican primary voters and just released their results. The survey (Oct. 9-10; 430 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig beginning with a 30-19 percent Republican primary lead over former Congressman Mike Rogers in the open US Senate race. This contest will develop over time with a late Aug. 6 primary scheduled.

The winner will likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is a clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring at the conclusion of this Congress.

House

CA-27: Democrat Drops Bid — Franky Carillo, who was once convicted of murder but freed after spending decades in prison when DNA evidence proved his innocence and has since become a Los Angeles County probation officer, has ended his congressional bid. This paves the way for former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides (D) to advance into the general election to face three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita).

CA-27 is one of the most politically marginal seats in the Republican Conference, ranked as the fourth most vulnerable on the Daily Kos Elections site scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+8, but Rep. Garcia has proven a consistent winner in the north Los Angeles County district. The 2024 election, however, is the first time he will face an opponent other than former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), whom he defeated three consecutive times.

NJ-7: Mayor Withdraws — Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello (D), who originally announced a challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez (D) but dropped out to instead enter the congressional race against Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), has now withdrawn again. Signorello announced during the week that he would end his congressional effort.

The Signorello move leaves former State Department Counterterrorism official Joe Blazakis and progressive activist Sue Altman as the remaining Democrats vying for the party nomination. Others could still enter the race.

Rep. Kean will be a slight favorite for re-election in a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.5R – 46.5D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-7 as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Likely — A new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Sept. 30-Oct. 6; 800 likely Houston mayoral voters; text message), finds state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) almost assuredly advancing to a December runoff election from the Nov. 7 initial municipal vote. According to the University of Houston ballot test, Sen. Whitmire, the longest serving legislator in Texas history (first elected in 1972), leads Rep. Jackson Lee 34-31 percent among the seven tested Houston mayoral candidates. A candidate must obtain majority support to be elected outright.

Looking ahead to the succeeding runoff, Sen. Whitmire outpaces Rep. Jackson Lee by a substantial 50-36 percent margin. The best news for Sen. Whitmire is that 40 percent of the undecided voters said they would consider voting for him, while 53 percent said they would never vote for Rep. Jackson Lee. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

RFK Jr.’s Declaration to Run as an Independent Could be a Presidential Race Game-Changer

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kennedy’s Independent Gambit: Potential Game-Changer — The 2024 presidential campaign may have dramatically changed this week. Though Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement to run as an Independent was expected, it is unclear just how he will affect next year’s general election.

At a rally event in Philadelphia on Monday, Kennedy officially declared his presidential candidacy as an Independent. He answered two major questions with his speech. First, he will run as an Independent candidate and not as the nominee of a minor party. Second, he is not running to be a spoiler in a race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump but will campaign to win.

Saying his “smoldering movement” wants to “ … reclaim democracy, resurrect the promise of our republic, the promised land,” Kennedy ended his Democratic primary challenge to President Biden and now moves to implement a general election strategy.

He will first face an uphill battle to secure ballot placement in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is an expensive proposition, but time, rather than money, might be his bigger obstacle since the window to accomplish the large task is small.

Though Kennedy may be in the race to win, the chance of any non-major party nominee or candidate winning a majority of Electoral College votes is a long shot to say the least, even for a man named Kennedy.

It does appear, however, that he will attract a significant number of votes, which could throw a key state to either President Biden or former President Trump, thus altering the national campaign outcome.

In looking at a Kennedy candidacy, we analyze which states might be receptive to his campaign. Naturally, considering the Kennedy family history in New England, he could see some success in a couple of the northern domains. While the Kennedy home state of Massachusetts would still be a lock for President Biden, its neighbor to the north, New Hampshire, could be a different story.

In 2020, Biden scored a 52.7 – 45.3 percent victory margin over Trump (a spread of 59,277 votes) in the Granite State, with third party or Independent candidates attracting two percentage points (translating into a raw number of 15,625 votes). If Kennedy could approach the 10 percent range (approximately 80,000 votes based upon New Hampshire’s 2020 turnout figure), the outcome could change from Biden winning the state to Trump. Under this model, Biden would have to lose 14 percent of his aggregate vote to Kennedy while Trump could lose no more than five percent of his total.

If Kennedy’s presence in the race would throw New Hampshire to Trump, the state’s four electoral votes switching might make a difference. For example, a combination of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire switching to Trump would give the former president 272 electoral votes, or two more than the bare minimum required to secure the presidency.

Maine could be another state where Kennedy would have the ability to draw some votes. In addition to the state splitting its electoral votes to the point where the individual congressional districts carry their own tally, Kennedy scoring into double digits in Maine’s 1st District could transform the final vote.

Even though the aggregate 1st District vote would still go to Biden, the closer finish coupled with a solid Trump win in the 2nd CD, might be enough to cast the statewide total Trump’s way and award the Republican three electoral votes instead of the one he has received in the past two elections.

Alaska is a place where the Kennedy presence could turn a state President Biden’s way. In 2020, Trump carried the state with 52.8 percent of the vote as compared to Biden’s 42.8 percent. Under the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system, the tables could turn if the leading candidate drops below 50 percent.

In 2020, 4.4 percent of the Alaska electorate chose a minor party or Independent candidate. Kennedy’s candidacy could easily see the latter percentage increase rather substantially, and most of his vote coming from the Trump total would force multiple rounds of Ranked Choice voting. This, in the end, would almost assuredly favor President Biden.

Kennedy already has two key attributes that almost none of the minor party or Independent candidates have, which is universal name identification and access to enough money to run a credible outreach campaign. Having these two points in his favor makes him a different type of Independent candidate, and thus should have the ability to attract a higher number of votes when compared to past non-major party candidates.

How the Kennedy candidacy ultimately affects the 2024 presidential race is clearly undetermined at this time, but he will have the opportunity of making his mark on this election.

Blake Masters to Run Again in Arizona Senate Race; New Candidate in NC-13 Race; Pfaff Passes in WI-3;
A Polling Tie in Mississippi Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 1, 2023

Senate

Blake Masters / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: 2022 GOP Nominee Preparing ’24 Senate Run — Reports are surfacing from Arizona that 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who fell to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by a 51-47 percent margin, will soon enter the current three-way Senate race. Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is expected to seek re-election possibly as the No Labels Party candidate, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is already becoming a likely consensus Democratic contender.

The Grand Canyon State contest will prove unpredictable because all three contenders, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the eventual Republican nominee, will have a pathway to victory.

Should Masters choose to enter the campaign, he will likely have Republican primary opposition. Kari Lake, the former news anchorwoman who received 49.6 percent of the gubernatorial vote in a losing effort against current incumbent Sen. Katie Hobbs (D), is also expected to become a Senate candidate. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already in the race and has been campaigning for the party nomination over a period of months.

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024, meaning this race will have a long development period.

House

NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress — State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.

In 2022, Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4 percent victory margin even though he lost the statewide count.

After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target.

WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity — State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48 percent even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive.

In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate.

Governor

Mississippi: Dem Poll Shows Tie — An Impact Research poll taken for Democrat Brandon Presley (D) in early August but just released Wednesday (Aug. 6-9; 600 likely Mississippi 2023 general election voters) produced interesting results in the Mississippi governor’s race. The ballot test finds Presley tied with Gov. Tate Reeves (R) at 46 percent, apiece. The pollsters note that Presley’s support has risen in all three of their previously conducted surveys, while Gov. Reeves has consistently dropped.

Similar polling trends were published in the 2019 governor’s race, and many believed that Reeves, then the state’s lieutenant governor, would lose to Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. In the end, Reeves scored a 52-47 percent win, a much stronger performance for the Republican than most believed would occur. Expect the Reeves campaign to soon counter with their own polling data. This year’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 7.