Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Big Change for DeSantis in GOP Poll; Trump Ahead Big in New Poll;
PA’s Mastriano’s Surprise;
Late Congressman’s Daughter Enters AZ-3 Race; New Candidates in MN-2

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 31, 2023

President

Presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

California: New GOP Primary Data Shows Big Change — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies surveyed the California electorate and found a major change from their February poll. This new survey (May 11-17; 7,465 registered California voters; 1,853 registered Republicans; online) projects former President Donald Trump moving into a big lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which is a marked change from February when the reverse was true.

According to the ballot test results, Trump holds a 44-26 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis with no other candidate even reaching five percent. In February, Gov. DeSantis led 39-27 percent. The surprising data point is that both candidates still maintain very high favorability indexes from the California GOP electorate, unusual when one candidate has such a big lead. Trump holds a 74:23 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio while Gov. DeSantis registered 75:15 percent. It is important to remember, however, that California uses a congressional district delegate apportionment system, so the statewide numbers are less important than in other places.

Iowa: Trump Leading Big in New Poll — The latest Emerson College survey of Republican potential Iowa Caucus voters (May 19-22; 442 likely GOP Iowa caucus voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives former President Donald Trump a huge 62-20 percent advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with no other candidate reaching six percent. It is important for DeSantis to do well in the early nomination events if he is to overtake Trump, but starting this far behind makes his task all the more difficult.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Mastriano’s Surprise Announcement — Despite signals to the contrary, state senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg/ Gettysburg) announced at the beginning of the weekend that he would not run for the US Senate and will instead seek re-election to his state Senate position. The move opens the door for 2022 Senate candidate and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick to run virtually unencumbered for the nomination, something that will be necessary in order to fully compete against Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D).

Though this allows the Republicans to field a stronger candidate than Mastriano, who was defeated 56-42 percent in the governor’s race, Sen. Casey must still be viewed as the favorite to win re-election next year.

House

AZ-3: Late Congressman’s Daughter Enters Race — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D) announced that she will run for the open Phoenix-anchored 3rd District, the seat her late father, Rep. Ed Pastor (D), represented for seven terms. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) currently represents the seat, but is leaving the House to run in the three-way contest for US Senate.

Along with Pastor, Osborn School Board Member Ylenia Aguilar, Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassiman Ansari, Glendale School Board Member Hector Jaramillo, and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran comprise the early Democratic primary. The 3rd District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+44, so the battle to succeed Rep. Gallego will be fought in the Democratic primary.

MN-2: New Candidates Emerge — In the past two election cycles, Republicans fielded USMC Reserve Officer Tyler Kistner as their 2nd District congressional nominee, but he lost twice to Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) by close margins: 48-46 percent in 2020, and 51-46 percent last November. Now, others are coming forward believing a fresh candidate would provide the GOP a better chance of upending Rep. Craig.

Originally, former Lexington Mayor Mike Murphy (R) announced his candidacy and now Attorney Tayler Rahm joins the field. Apparently, Kistner has not ruled out making a third run against Rep. Craig, but he has also made no discernible move to enter the race. Regardless of what happens in the Republican nominating convention and/or primary election, Rep. Craig will be favored for re-election.

DeSantis Officially Declares;
Rep. Lee Releases New Poll;
No Re-Match in NJ-7 for Rep. Kean

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 26, 2023

President

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Officially Declares — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally made his long-awaited presidential announcement in a technically flawed Twitter interview with Elon Musk. Simultaneously, the Never Back Down Super PAC, an organization supporting DeSantis, said they are planning to recruit an operation of 2,600 people to visit targeted homes of voters in the key early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Therefore, with other candidates soon to announce, the slow developing 2024 presidential campaign finally looks to be getting underway in earnest.

Senate

California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)

California: Rep. Lee Releases New Poll — California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) released the results of a three-pollster conglomeration that included 1,380 California likely voters mostly via live interview with some text responses over the May 13-21 period. The three involved polling firms were FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies.

For the first time in a statewide open US Senate poll, a Republican candidate, former Attorney General contender Eric Early was added to the questionnaire. With a split among the three Democratic House members of Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Early placed first in this comprehensive jungle primary survey with a preference figure of 27 percent. Reps. Porter, Schiff, and Lee followed with 24, 21, and 11 percent, respectively.

The result is interesting in that the ballot test suggests a Republican could well advance into the general election with two of the Dem House members eliminated from the competition. Clearly, this jungle primary will be another of the most interesting races we will see on the March 5th Super Tuesday election calendar.

House

NJ-7: No Re-Match — New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal seat anchored in Union County, but the voters there will not see the third version of a Tom Kean Jr. vs Tom Malinowski campaign. In 2018, Malinowski converted the seat for the Democrats, defeating five-term GOP incumbent Leonard Lance. The Democratic congressman then won a close re-election race against Republican Tom Kean. The 2022 re-match went Kean’s way, though, and Malinowski announced Wednesday that he will not return for a rubber match.

The 7th District became more Republican in redistricting but is still competitive. Rep. Kean will definitely face a strong Democratic opponent in 2024, but it will not be Malinowski. State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Roy Freiman (D-Hillsborough) are two potential Democratic candidates.

Note: In observance of Memorial Day, Monday, May 29, we will not publish our regular updates. Our next one will be Tuesday, May 30.

Sununu Gaining Ground in NH; Becker Passes in Nevada; A Utah Mayor to Challenge Romney; Poll Shows tight North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 25, 2023

President

Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu — The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender.

According to the NR data (May 15-17; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with six percent. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the three percent threshold.

Senate

Nevada: Another Takes Pass — April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48 percent re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.

Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney — Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential opportunities in a race against Sen. Romney.

In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Sen. Romney.

Governor

Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race — Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (May 18-19; 987 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43 percent, edge over AG Cameron.

The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election.

NH Gov. Sununu Edges Closer to Presidential Candidacy; New Dem Emerges in MD Senate Race; Possible Challenger to Tenn. Sen. Blackburn; Radzius is In & Out in NY-3

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 23, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but will forego a fifth run for governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. The Granite State has no term limits in place for the office of governor; also, governors serve two-year terms, not four as in most states.

Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth — Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top-tier contender, since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) also are potential candidates.

The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November.

Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger — Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37 percent in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44 percent, to initially win her seat in 2018.

House

NY-3: In and Out — As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long-shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary.

Scott Announces Presidential Run; DeSantis, Burgum Set to Announce; Michigan Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 22, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Formally Announces — As predicted last week, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Saturday declared his presidential candidacy. At this point, former President Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, retired Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Sen. Scott are the officially announced Republican candidates.

As we have previously said, the higher the number of second-tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump.

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Set to Announce — Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign this week. His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump. Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations. It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states.

Gov. Doug Burgum: To Declare Next Week — In what will be a long-shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is also reportedly going to announce his first national campaign this week. While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar.

Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates. With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes. His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate.

Senate

Michigan: State School Board President Files Senate Committee — As has been expected for some time, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D) filed a US Senate committee late last week with the Federal Election Commission. Potentially, we could see three African-American candidates in the open Senate Democratic primary. Pugh would join deputy director of the state Department of Transportation and ex-state Rep. Leslie Love, who has filed an exploratory committee, and potentially actor Hill Harper.

If all three eventually enter the race, the beneficiary would be US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), who is viewed as the early favorite to win the seat. If the state’s substantial black vote is split three ways, it is probable that Rep. Slotkin’s hand would be strengthened even further. It remains to be seen exactly who will formally enter the open race. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fourth term.

Trump Continues to Lead in Republican Primary Polls; Rep. Santos Charged; New Candidate in VA-7;
A Very Tight Philly Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 11, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Morning Consult Poll: Trump Opens Biggest Lead — Though former President Donald Trump may not be doing well in the courts, he continues to build a strong lead in Republican primary polls. The Morning Consult tracking survey (May 5-7; 3,574 US registered voters who identify or lead Republican; online) finds Trump hitting the 60 percent mark against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the second-tier candidates. The former US chief executive holds a 60-19 percent margin over DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence and, surprisingly, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy lead the second-tier group with five percent support each.

House

NY-3: Rep. Santos Charged — Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) was charged with federal crimes under a sealed indictment. A 13-count indictment was unsealed Wednesday in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York charging Santos with seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds, and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives. It is presumed that Rep. Santos will not resign his seat while he fights the charges. Even before the indictment, four Democrats and two Republicans had already announced their 2024 candidacies. We can expect more potential candidates to soon come forward.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger Draws Second Opponent — Businessman Bill Moher became the second Republican to announce his congressional candidacy opposite three-term Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen). Previously in the race was Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley (R). Unless the Republicans find a top-tier 2024 candidate, it is unlikely the party will be able to unseat Rep. Spanberger in the post-redistricting seat where she will have had the opportunity of representing for a full term by the time of the next election. Rep. Spanberger was re-elected in 2022 with a 52-48 percent margin in a campaign where combined campaign spending exceeded $12 million not counting independent expenditures.

Cities

Philadelphia Mayor: Polling Shows Pre-Primary Dead Heat — A new Data for Progress survey (April 26-29; 560 Philadelphia likely Democratic mayoral primary voters; online & text) finds a tie at the top of the Democratic primary candidate field as the contenders head toward next Tuesday’s primary election day. The poll’s sponsor, former Philadelphia City Councilwoman Helen Gym and ex-City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart were tied with a support figure of 21 percent. Close behind is former City Councilwoman Cherelle Parker with 19 percent. Ex-Councilman Alan Domb, businessman Jeff Brown, and state Rep. Amen Brown followed with 13, 9, and 2 percent backing, respectively. Current Mayor Jim Kenney is term limited and cannot run.

Previously, a Survey USA poll (April 21-23; 1,013 Philadelphia likely mayoral Democratic primary voters; online) arrived at a similar conclusion, but saw an 18-17-15-14 percent split featuring Rhynhart, Parker, Gym, and Domb consecutively within the polling margin of error. It appears the Democratic nomination is within reach of several candidates as we move into the final week of campaigning. The winner will face former City Councilman David Oh who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. He will automatically move into the November general election.

Poll Shows Biden Trailing Both Trump & DeSantis; New Senate Candidate in Maryland; IL-7, NC-13 House Candidates Emerge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 10, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump;
Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

ABC/Washington Post Poll: Biden Trailing Both Trump & DeSantis — ABC News and the Washington Post released the results of their new national poll (April 28-May 3; 1,006 US adults; 438 Republican and Republican-leaning voters; 396 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters; live interview) and the data reveals President Joe Biden trailing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in ranges beyond the polling margin of error. The latter point, relating to the polling margin of error, is significant since the sample cut seems to skew Republican.

On the national ballot test, among an unspecified number of registered voters, President Biden trails Trump, 39-45 percent, and Gov. DeSantis, 38-44 percent. As stated before many times in previous posts, the national popular vote poll is not particularly important. The race will likely come down to how key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin ultimately break.

Senate

Maryland: PG County Executive to Announce Senate Campaign — Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) officially kicked off her open US Senate campaign yesterday. The move has been expected. Already in the Democratic primary race are US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) are potential candidates. The Democratic primary will almost assuredly decide the successor to retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The Maryland nomination battle, which will be hotly contested and a determinative precursor for the general election, is scheduled for May 14, 2024.

House

IL-7: Rep. Davis Running; to Face Dem Primary — The second Democratic challenger to Illinois Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) came forward, which drew a quick response from the Davis camp indicating that the 81-year-old veteran representative will seek re-election. Davis had been on the rumored retirement list.

Educator Nikhil Bhatia (D) announced her candidacy, which precipitated the response from the Davis political operation. The major potential opponent, however, is Chicago city treasurer and former state Rep. Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) who has filed a congressional exploratory committee and reiterated that she continues to test the political waters irrespective whether Rep. Davis will be her opponent.

The Democratic primary is the key to re-election (FiveThirtyEight rating D+70), so the March 19, 2024 election date is the key to winning the succeeding term. The race is worth watching. Rep. Davis won the 2022 Dem primary with only a 52-45 percent margin over community organizer Kina Collins.

NC-13: State Rep. Files Federal Exploratory Committee — Wake County state Rep. Erin Pare (D-Fuquay-Varina) announced the formation of a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation of the 13th Congressional District being redrawn before the 2024 election.

The state Supreme Court opened the door to another congressional and legislative redraw with their related ruling at the end of April. The new map is expected to help Republicans, and the 13th District, which freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) represents and currently houses southern Wake County, the Fayetteville area, and Johnston County, is cast as a politically marginal district (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+3; Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 49.5D-48.1R). It will likely become better Republican territory.

The redrawing process likely will begin after the US Supreme Court takes action on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering case currently on their docket. A decision is expected before the end of June.