Category Archives: Polling

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

The New England Trio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 27, 2026

Primaries

Wrapping up primary season, we come to the New England states, where three of the final four primaries will be held early next month. Delaware is the fourth state yet to nominate candidates for the November election, and its primary will occur even later than the New England trio.

Massachusetts voters will cast ballots on Sept. 1, New Hampshire holds its primary on the 8th, and Rhode Island follows on the 9th. Delawareans won’t vote until Sept. 15, but party endorsing conventions have effectively rendered the primary a pro forma exercise.

In preparation for the upcoming contests, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center fielded polls across the three New England states to provide a snapshot of the key nomination races. The UNH Survey Center routinely conducts surveys throughout the region.

In Massachusetts, Tuesday’s primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, along with an open race in the 6th Congressional District – the seat Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is risking to challenge the Senator.

According to the UNH Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.

The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (July 30-Aug. 2; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34 percent voter preference. Crypto currency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent.

Turning to New Hampshire, the Granite State Poll shows a significant shift in the Senate campaign. The previous overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the 10 publicly released Democratic primary polls.

Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.

While the 2nd Congressional District appears set for a general election re-match between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the open 1st District features hot primaries for both parties.

Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19 percent margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the vote on Sept. 8.

On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former state party vice chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election.

Finally, in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race, Massachusetts‑based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee trailing badly against Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Foulkes leads 45-30 percent, consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on Sept. 9.

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

New Hampshire’s Sour Mood

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 21, 2026

New Hampshire Electorate

To see an interactive version of this map, go to:
Dave’s Redistricting Map.

As the Sept. 8 New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.

Republicans fare worse than Democrats, likely because the sample includes more Democratic primary voters, but Democratic candidates are not in positive territory either. Almost every tested figure in both parties posts strongly negative approval ratings.

The Iran War is weighing heavily on Republicans: 60 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate while the conflict continues. Democrats face their own drag, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

The St. Anselm online poll, conducted Aug. 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self-identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.

Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

President Trump’s job approval stands at a woeful 37:62. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is barely above water at 50:46. Two Democratic House members, Rep. Chris Pappas (D Manchester), the likely open seat Democratic Senate nominee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D Nashua), were also tested. Rep. Pappas began a downward trend at 44:51, while Goodlander posts a narrow 45:43 positive rating.

The candidates fare even worse. Republican Senate contenders John E. Sununu and Scott Brown register 38:54 and 30:47, respectively. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington, the likely nominee against Gov. Ayotte, is similarly upside down at 26:37.

In the open Senate race with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Pappas leads former Sen. Sununu 48-41 percent and posts a larger 49-37 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Brown. In the GOP primary, Sununu would defeat Brown 54-24 percent.

The open 1st District Democratic primary appears headed for a photo finish. Though the field includes multiple candidates, the race has effectively narrowed to former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Shaheen. The poll shows Sullivan holding a slight 26-24 percent edge.

On the Republican side, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo leads business owner Hollie Noveletsky 30-17 percent. The 1st District is traditionally one of the nation’s most competitive seats, and the short general election window will likely produce a heated contest, though the Democratic nominee begins with at least a modest advantage.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Ayotte leads Warmington 49-38 percent. Turning to the 2nd District congressional campaign, a rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the Congresswoman holds a 50-35 percent advantage.

President Trump has lost New Hampshire in all three of his elections, so his continued decline in the state is unsurprising. More notable is the deterioration in former Sen. Sununu’s standing against Rep. Pappas, given the Sununu family (Gov. John Sununu; Gov. Chris Sununu; US Representative & Senator John E. Sununu) and their long record of New Hampshire electoral success.

A clue to the poll’s ideological tilt appears in the “most important issue” question. In most surveys, the economy and affordability dominate. Here, the top response is elections and protecting democracy – an issue typically emphasized by the most liberal Democratic voters. Its prominence suggests a leftward sample skew.

Even with the skew, the numbers still point toward Democratic advantages in nearly every major New Hampshire race except Governor. Whether Republicans can rebound in the remaining weeks will depend on their ability to reverse perceptions on the economy and affordability – areas where they traditionally perform better, but not in this survey.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Close Race Watch: Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 17, 2026

PA District sizes & locations are approximate representations. Click on the image or here to see full interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

The Pennsylvania US House races will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress. Of the state’s 17 House races, four are majority determinative, and each feature a vulnerable Republican incumbent seeking re-election.

PA-1

Five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) is perennially vulnerable. He’s in one of three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris yet elected a Republican to the House. Rep. Fitzpatrick has been able to score victory after victory in his Bucks County-anchored CD averaging 54.7 percent of the vote over his five elections, far exceeding the district’s partisan lean (51.8D – 46.3R – Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Prior to Rep. Fitzpatrick initially claiming the seat in the 2016 election, the Congressman’s brother, Michael Fitzpatrick, had held the seat for four non-consecutive terms. After spending 10 years on the Bucks County Commission, Michael Fitzpatrick was elected to the House in the 2004 election but was defeated for re-election in 2006. He would then regain the seat in 2010 and serve three consecutive terms. He did not seek re-election in 2016, yielding to his brother. Michael Fitzpatrick passed away from cancer in 2020. The Fitzpatrick family has a strong history in Bucks County politics.

This year, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces another strong candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won the Democratic primary with 64.9 percent of the vote. According to the latest June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Harvie has raised just over $2 million with an excess of $794,000 cash-on-hand post primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is in a commanding financial position, however, with over $6.3 million in his campaign account.

The 1st District will host another repeat campaign in 2026. Rep. Fitzpatrick is again favored for re-election, but a potentially adverse political climate for Republicans at the time of the election again puts this seat in the vulnerable category.

PA-7

The Keystone State’s 7th District, which is anchored in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, is like the 1st CD in that we always see close elections. In various iterations of this CD, the Republican candidates, former Reps. Pat Toomey, who would later become a US Senator, Charlie Dent, and now freshman Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie), have won a combined 11 of the past 14 congressional elections.

The last four, however, with former Rep. Susan Wild (D) winning three times, have been very close. In those four campaigns, the winning candidate has never exceeded 53.5 percent with an average of 51.7 percent. In 2024, Rep. Mackenzie unseated Wild with 50.5 percent of the vote.

This year, former Rep. Wild did not return to seek a rematch. The new Democratic nominee is former Pennsylvania Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0 percent of the vote. In the first post-primary published poll, from the Democratic firm GBAO (June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 voters), Brooks claimed a 47-43 percent lead over Rep. Mackenzie.

With a Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) calculated partisan lean of 50.2D – 47.5R, the 7th District will again return a very close finish in November.

According to the new FEC financial disclosure reports, Rep. Mackenzie holds a $2.9 million cash-on-hand advantage over Brooks’ $1.08 million.

PA-8

To the northeast of the 7th District lies the Scranton-anchored 8th CD where freshman US Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) seeks a second term after defeating six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in 2024. The Congressman’s 2026 Democratic opponent is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both Rep. Bresnahan and Mayor Cognetti were unopposed in their respective primaries, but 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the May nominating election.

Though the 8th CD slightly leans Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 50.0D – 47.9R), the district is more Republican than the other eastern PA districts. In fact, President Trump has run strongly here, carrying the seat in all three of his elections and posting a 54-45 percent win here in 2024 under the present district lines. Among the four competitive Pennsylvania US House districts, the 8th has perennially been President Trump’s strongest performer.

This will be another expensive race. The new FEC reports (reporting deadline: June 30) find Rep. Bresnahan with $2.6 million in his campaign account and Mayor Cognetti holding the advantage with $3.4 million, both taking advantage of having unopposed primaries.

Two Democratic pollsters, Lake Research Partners and Impact Research, conducted mid-June surveys and each largely arrived at the same conclusion. Each showed a basic dead heat with Mayor Cognetti leading by two and one percentage points, with both candidates scoring in the high 40s.

PA-10

The Harrisburg/York-anchored 10th District features a rematch between seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson. The 2024 election ended with a close Perry victory of 50.5 – 49.3 percent while President Trump was scoring a 52.0 – 46.8 percent here win over Kamala Harris.

Of the four competitive PA districts, the 10th is the only one where the DRA partisan lean favors the Republicans (50.7R – 46.8D). The 2022 court drawn redistricting map changed this district from one that heavily favored a conservative Republican to a politically marginal seat anchored in the state’s capital city of Harrisburg.

The 2024 race featured heavy spending with Stelson outspending the incumbent, $6.4 million to $4.6 million. According to the new FEC reports, Stelson again has the cash-on-hand advantage, $4.5 million to $2.8 million. Once more, we can expect heavy outside spending from both parties to attempt to influence the outcome.

The negatives for both candidates are that the Congressman, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is more conservative than the average constituent, and that Stelson, who anchored a television news desk in Lancaster, outside of the 10th District, is a carpetbagger.

Expect another close outcome in this highly competitive central Pennsylvania congressional district. Together, these four tight PA congressional districts could determine which party wins the House majority.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.