Category Archives: Polling

Louisiana Senate Runoff Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 26 2026

US Senate

Louisiana GOP voters will close the loop on the party’s Senate nomination process tomorrow, as the runoff election will effectively end the marathon campaign for the state’s junior Senate seat. The May primary drew significant national attention when the challengers successfully denied two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy even a runoff ballot line.

Saturday’s runoff appears closer than many expected at the outset. Shortly after the primary, Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start) posted large polling leads over State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. As the race concludes, however, tomorrow’s outcome now appears uncertain.

The Louisiana campaign became a focal point when President Trump renewed his attacks on Sen. Cassidy over Cassidy’s impeachment vote in early 2021. Upon returning to office, the President pledged to settle the score, and his endorsed candidate, Rep. Letlow, initially performed as well as he had hoped.

Trump publicly backed the Congresswoman early – even before she had formally decided to run for the Senate. Yet Dr. Fleming, also a physician and wealthy businessman who owns or previously owned 38 Subway franchises and developed 168 UPS Stores, is likewise close to Trump.

After serving four terms in the US House and unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2016, Dr. Fleming was appointed to several posts by President Trump: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Health Technology Reform, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and finally White House Deputy Chief of Staff under then-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

When Dr. Fleming ran for State Treasurer in 2023, he earned endorsements from then-former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA). A Fleming victory tomorrow would therefore bring another Trump ally to the Senate, even though the President supported Rep. Letlow. Trump believed she would be the stronger candidate against Sen. Cassidy in a Republican runoff, which drove his decision to back her over Fleming.

Early in the runoff cycle, Rep. Letlow appeared to justify that confidence. In late May, she opened polling leads of 52-35 percent and 52-37 percent in surveys from Harper Polling and Kaplan Strategies.

The tide began to shift in mid‑June. Dr. Fleming’s decision to invest more than $11 million of his own money into his campaign communications program appears wise. Rep. Letlow’s average 16‑point advantage in early polling shrank to two points (40-38 percent; BDPC; June 21-22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) and three points (48-45 percent; Quantas Insights; June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters).

Another poll, from JMC Analytics (conducted for the Fleming campaign; June 21–22; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), even showed Dr. Fleming pulling ahead with a 45–40 percent lead.

Earlier in the cycle, Dr. Fleming appeared to be maneuvering around Federal Election Commission reporting deadlines by loaning his campaign $2 million before each filing period, then repaying himself afterward, only to re‑loan the funds before the next deadline. Ultimately, however, he invested heavily and strategically. His final $11.5 million personal loan allowed him to build a major spending advantage over Rep. Letlow, whose campaign reported raising $4.3 million through June 7.

While the Congresswoman may still hold on to win the runoff, it is clear that Dr. Fleming has the momentum heading into Election Day and effectively timed his campaign peak period.

Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator, as Democrats are not positioned to mount a competitive general election challenge. The Republican runoff should therefore be treated as the decisive election for this seat.

Turnout for the May 16 Republican primary was 401,174 individuals. Runoff participation is typically much lower, so the campaign that best identifies and turns out its supporters will prevail tomorrow night. If the late polling is accurate, this race should now be considered a toss‑up.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Bennet’s Gubernatorial Bid In Doubt

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 19, 2026

Governor

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

When Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) announced he would enter the open race for Governor back in April of 2025, most believed he would sail through the Democratic primary and into the Governor’s mansion with relatively little effort. As the June 30 primary approaches, however, the political landscape looks considerably different.

Once Sen. Bennet declared his gubernatorial candidacy, all but one of the major prospective Democratic contenders abandoned their ambitions – choosing instead to seek re‑election, pursue other statewide offices, or exit electoral politics altogether. The lone holdout was Attorney General Phil Weiser, who is term‑limited and therefore unable to seek a third term. He remained in the race as Sen. Bennet’s only significant primary opponent.

It is now clear that Weiser has become a serious threat. At least one recent survey has even shown him leading the primary. Two of the latest publicly released polls illustrate the tightening contest: Public Policy Polling (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) found Bennet ahead 36-30 percent, while Colorado Community Research (May 22-28; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading 41-34 percent.

Neither poll is encouraging for Bennet. Even in the PPP survey, where he holds a narrow lead, the fact that a four‑term US Senator (appointed in 2009 to replace Ken Salazar and subsequently elected in 2010, 2016, and 2022) is polling only in the 30s among his own party’s primary electorate as the early voting period begins is hardly a sign of political strength.

Several of Bennet’s strategic decisions, combined with an unexpectedly vigorous grassroots effort from Weiser, have contributed to the competitiveness of the race.

The Senator’s first questionable move was bypassing the state party’s nomination assembly. Colorado candidates can access the primary ballot in one of two ways: by securing at least 30 percent of the delegate vote at the state endorsing convention, or collecting the required number of petition signatures – 1,500 from registered party members in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. Candidates may pursue both paths simultaneously as a safeguard. Sen. Bennet chose to skip the assembly entirely and rely solely on petition signatures.

Weiser, by contrast, attended the assembly and surpassed the 30 percent threshold, earning his ballot line. Sen. Bennet’s decision raised eyebrows, suggesting either a lack of confidence in his ability to win over party delegates or a desire to avoid the rigors of the convention process altogether.

A second misstep came when Bennet stated that, if elected Governor, he intended to remain in the Senate long enough to choose his own successor rather than resign immediately and allow outgoing Gov. Jared Polis (D) to make the appointment. Critics quickly seized on the remark, accusing Bennet of attempting to consolidate too much power.

Meanwhile, Weiser’s campaign has been more aggressive and effective than many anticipated. In his campaign appearances around the state, he has criticized Bennet – and DC Democrats more broadly – for not applying sufficient pressure on President Trump. He contrasts this with his own record, highlighting the 65 lawsuits he has filed or enjoined against the Trump Administration.

There is little doubt that the winner of the June 30 Democratic primary will be strongly positioned to become Colorado’s next Governor, given the state’s continued leftward shift. Sen. Bennet may ultimately secure the gubernatorial nomination, but if he does, the victory will likely be viewed as far less impressive than many expected when he first announced his return to state politics in early 2025.

Moreover, federal incumbents seeking different offices in the 2026 cycle have not fared well in either party. Base party primary voters have shown frustration with Washington, rejecting several sitting members of Congress in their bids for Senate seats or gubernatorial positions. Sen. Bennet’s status as a long‑time federal officeholder may be yet another factor weighing down his current campaign.

Ohio Senate Race Moves to Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 12, 2026

Senate

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has revised its ratings in three Senate races, including the Ohio special election. North Carolina shifts from Toss‑Up to Lean Democratic, while Alaska moves from Lean Republican to Toss‑Up. Ohio was cast in the same manner as Alaska.

The Ohio special election features appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). It is one of the most consequential contests of 2026 and will play a major role in determining which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. Although the race appears competitive at this stage, the Ohio electorate continues to show signs of returning to its pre‑Obama era pattern as a reliably Republican state.

Husted was appointed to replace JD Vance, who resigned from the Senate after being elected Vice President. Before his appointment, the new Senator served two terms as Lieutenant Governor and eight years as Secretary of State.

Brown, who lost his 2024 re‑election bid after three Senate terms and 14 years in the US House, is attempting a comeback to reclaim the seat he held for 18 years. He previously served as Ohio’s Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

A recently released Fox News poll (May 28-June 1; 1,015 registered voters) likely contributed to the Center for Politics’ new rating. The survey shows Brown leading Sen. Husted 53-45 percent. The poll raises questions, however, because the same sample found the gubernatorial race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton separated by just one point – an unusually tight margin given earlier polling trends.

Three earlier surveys conducted from mid‑March through mid‑April, each from a different pollster, showed Husted leading. In total, 12 polls from eight organizations between February and early June found Husted ahead in seven instances and ex-Sen. Brown ahead in five. Viewed collectively, the Fox News poll appears to be an outlier. It is also atypical for the Senate and gubernatorial races to diverge so sharply in the same polling sample.

A key indicator of Ohio’s political trajectory comes from comparing Brown’s 2024 performance with his 2018 victory. In 2024, then-Sen. Brown received 295,026 more votes than he did in 2018, yet still lost by 3.5 points.

This suggests a shifting electorate increasingly favorable to Republicans. Such data points are important when assessing where Ohio voters may stand by Election Day 2026. Early signs indicate that 2026 is shaping up as a turnout‑driven election rather than a persuasion‑driven one, making political climate and base enthusiasm especially significant.

Fundraising will also play a major role. In 2024, Brown raised over $103 million – second only to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) – yet still fell short. For 2026, Brown ranks fifth nationally with more than $25 million raised. Sen. Husted trails with just over $10 million but is expected to have sufficient resources. Both sides will be supplemented through substantial outside spending.

If economic conditions – particularly gasoline and grocery prices – improve by early voting in October, and if the Iran conflict stabilizes, historical voting patterns will likely reassert themselves. If so, expect the Ohio Senate race to return to a Lean Republican rating and produce an eventual GOP victory.

Florida Supreme Court Upholds
2026 Redistricting Map

2026 Florida redistricting map (to view interactive version, click on map or go to Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Redistricting

In what is likely the final major development of the 2026 mid‑decade redistricting cycle, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced yesterday that the state Supreme Court has rejected Democrats’ appeal of the newly enacted congressional map. As a result, the new districts will be in place for the 2026 election.

The ruling arrives just in time for candidates to finalize their congressional filings before tomorrow’s deadline. The map is designed to shift four Democratic seats into the Republican column, creating a projected 24R-4D delegation. As with the new plans in Texas and California, it remains to be seen whether the election results will deliver the partisan division that the map architects intended.

According to the statisticians at Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), the four most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are, in order: Rep. Darren Soto (D‑Kissimmee; 9th District), Rep. Kathy Castor (D‑Tampa; 14th District), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D‑Weston; currently in the 25th District but drawn into the new 22nd), and Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D‑Parkland; 23rd District), who will seek re‑election in the new 25th.

DRA’s calculations reflect a comprehensive analysis of each district’s political history, incorporating far more than the most recent presidential results. It remains the only research entity providing this type of information for all 435 congressional districts across the US.

Rep. Soto’s central Florida district undergoes the most dramatic shift: a net partisan change of 38.4 percentage points, moving from 58.8D to 58.9R – a complete reversal from his current 9th District. Rep. Castor’s Tampa-anchored seat shifts 30.9 points toward Republicans, moving from 58.3D to 55.5R.

The new 22nd District, drawn as an open seat, stretches from the Weston area across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Rather than running in this district, which contains her home, Rep. Wasserman Schultz has announced for the new 20th District – a decision generating controversy within Democratic circles.

The 20th is one of four safe Democratic seats under the new map, but it is also nearly 70 percent minority: 42.1 percent Black, 23.3 percent Hispanic, 3.7 percent Asian, and 1.4 percent Native American. Several Black community leaders have voiced concern that Wasserman Schultz’s move could prohibit one of several African American candidates from winning the seat.

The district is open because former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus‑ McCormick (D) was forced to resign while under federal indictment; she is already attempting a political comeback.

A new Listener Group poll (May 29-June 1; 500 likely FL-20 Democratic primary voters; live interview) tests the field and finds Wasserman Schultz leading with 39 percent. Community organizer Elijah Manley follows with 19 percent preference, former Broward County Commissioner and past congressional candidate Dale Holness has 15 percent, and Cherfilus‑McCormick draws just three percent support.

Once respondents are provided additional information, the race tightens. Thus, while Wasserman Schultz begins as the frontrunner, securing the nomination in the Aug. 18 primary is not assured. Her advantage is that Florida does not require a runoff; a simple plurality is sufficient for victory. If she maintains her current vote base, Wasserman Schultz could win with well under 50 percent. In a runoff system, the data suggests she would face a more difficult path.

The new 22nd District is a Republican‑leaning seat (DRA partisan lean: 54.4R-44.9D) and is expected to elect a GOP candidate in an open race. Democrats note that President Biden received more votes than President Trump in the 2020 election when reconfigured under the new boundaries. Republicans counter that Trump rebounded here in 2024 and that GOP voter registration has surged since 2020.

The new 25th District, which hugs the Atlantic coast, stretching from Boca Raton down to Miami Beach, is the least Republican of the targeted districts. Its DRA partisan lean is 52.3R-47.0D, and Moskowitz emphasizes that he already represents roughly half of the constituency. Still, the district shifts 19.5 points toward Republicans compared with his current 23rd District.

The redistricting outcomes in Florida and Virginia – where Democrats lost their plus-4D map in court – clearly improve the House Republican national landscape. Across all newly implemented maps, Republicans appear positioned to gain between five and 12 seats relative to their current 220-215 House margin.

Democrats still have a path to reclaiming the House majority in 2026, but the redistricting battles have unquestionably strengthened Republican prospects.

Different Primaries, Different Ways of Tallying the Votes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Primaries

Four states are holding primary elections today – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina – and each has different ways of managing its votes.

Maine uses a Ranked Choice Voting system, which recent polling suggests could drastically alter the Democratic gubernatorial primary outcome once second- and third-choice preferences are tabulated. North Dakota relies on a strong party endorsement process that often makes the state primary, including today’s, largely a formality.

Nevada employs a straightforward plurality system in which the top vote getter advances regardless of the percentage received. South Carolina, by contrast, requires a runoff if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold.

Therefore, in today’s June 9 primary elections, we see nearly every major type of nominating system in use. The only other method, observed last week in California, is the top-two “jungle” primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party preference, appear on a single ballot and the two highest finishers advance to the general election irrespective of the vote percentage attained.

Lively debate often arises in political circles over which nominating system works best. For those who believe it is essential for a party’s nominee to demonstrate majority support, a secondary runoff election is the preferred approach. States such as Alabama and Georgia, which will hold runoffs next week, and South Carolina, which follows on June 23, use this method to ensure the eventual nominee surpasses the 50 percent threshold.

Other states simply rely on a basic plurality system: whoever receives the most votes wins. The drawback, however, is that in a crowded field a candidate can secure a nomination with less than 30 percent support. North Carolina uses a modified approach – its runoff provision is triggered only if no candidate reaches 30 percent. South Dakota and Iowa also hold a secondary process (SD: a runoff; IA: a state party convention) should no candidate receive 35 percent in the primary election.

In addition to North Dakota, several states – most notably Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Utah, with Virginia also having the option of holding a binding nominating convention – conduct important state party endorsement conventions. These gatherings often play a decisive role in shaping the field. Candidates who fail to secure the party’s backing frequently withdraw afterward, and in many cases are expected to step aside if they do not win the delegate vote.

The one procedure that can significantly alter the outcome from the initial vote count is the Ranked Choice Voting system used in Maine. According to a recent Democratic gubernatorial primary poll, it is possible for a candidate who finishes third in the actual vote count to ultimately secure the nomination once all ranked choice votes are distributed.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, the organization that advocates for Ranked Choice Voting, tested both the initial ballot preferences and the subsequent RCV rounds. SurveyUSA (May 28-June 3; 484 likely Democratic primary voters; 466 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) provided a credible model for how the ranked choice tabulation could unfold after the first round vote.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Ranked Choice Voting model closely mirrored the initial ballot test. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles placed first among respondents on the ballot test question. Businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H. W. and George W. Bush, placed second, followed by former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, with the remaining candidates trailing well behind.

After three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting, during which voters’ preferences are redistributed as lower finishing candidates are eliminated, the model shows Charles surpassing the 50 percent threshold. Under the RCV rules, reaching a majority in a tabulation secures the nomination.

The Democratic contest presents a very different dynamic, and it is here that critics highlight what they view as a flaw in Ranked Choice Voting. While supporters argue that the system ensures the candidate with the broadest overall backing ultimately prevails, detractors contend that, in practice, it can amplify the influence of the most ideologically extreme voters participating in the primary. They argue that the ranked preferences may elevate a candidate who was not among the top initial vote getters.

When a candidate is eliminated for lack of support, only the voters who ranked that individual first have their subsequent preferences redistributed into the tally. Critics argue that this dynamic can distort the outcome. Opponents of Ranked Choice Voting contend that giving these later round preferences additional weight can allow a small, highly motivated faction to alter the final result to the detriment of the initial top-tier finishers.

In the Maine Democratic example, former Maine Health Department Director Nirav Shah placed first in the initial ballot test, followed by former state Senate President Troy Jackson, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, businessman Angus King III, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.

With no candidate reaching 50 percent, the last-place finisher, in this poll, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, would be eliminated. Election officials would then identify the ballots on which she was ranked first and redistribute those voters’ next preferences to the remaining candidates. This process continues through successive RCV rounds until one contender attains an adjusted majority.

In the SurveyUSA poll, the Ranked Choice Voting simulation requires four rounds and ultimately elevates the third-place finisher, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), to the top position, with Dr. Nirav Shah finishing a close second in the adjusted tally.

This example illustrates how a candidate who does not lead in the initial vote count can nonetheless emerge as the nominee once lower ranking preferences are redistributed.
While this is only a poll and not an actual election, the outlined scenario is structurally possible under Maine’s RCV system. We will see how the real results unfold tonight, and in the days ahead, as election officials complete the multi round tabulation that the Ranked Choice Voting system requires.

Four-State Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 8, 2026

Voters in a total of four states complete their primary voting tomorrow and several races are still too difficult to project just a day before the election. The June 9 primary states are Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

>Maine

The Maine ballot features a highly competitive Governor’s race in both primaries, a highly publicized Senate race that will become one of the top national campaigns in the general election, and a 2nd Congressional District that could prove to be the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the country.

For the Democrats, their crowded primary is very likely to produce a first-place finisher who is well below the 50 percent plateau. If so, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds will then begin. Polling throughout the year has favored former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, but whether he can flourish in the RCV rounds is an unanswered question.

Dr. Shah’s principal opponents are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), former state Senate President Troy Jackson, and ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

The most recent poll comes from Survey USA (May 28-6-3; 484 likely Maine Democratic primary voters). The ballot test results find Dr. Shah again in first place but with a declining 25 percent. In second place is Jackson (20 percent), who has been the candidate showing the most late momentum, Pingree just a point behind at 19 percent, with King and Bellows trailing with 17 and 11 percent, respectively.

Survey USA also ran a Ranked Choice Voting test. At the end of their projected four rounds, it was Pingree topping Dr. Shah with a 52-48 percent margin. The first candidate eliminated in RCV round two was Bellows, who was the subject of national controversy early in the 2024 election when she denied a ballot position to President Trump. King was then projected to fall in round three, while Jackson was eliminated in round four but by just one point. Therefore, it appears this race is anyone’s game once the Ranked Choice rounds begin.

To refresh, instead of voting for one candidate, individuals rank all candidates in preference order. If no one receives 50 percent, the candidate with the smallest number of actual general election votes, Bellows according to the S-USA poll, is eliminated. Election officials then find the ballots that listed Bellows as the first choice. Then, only those ballots’ second choice selections are added to the aggregate vote. The process continues until one candidate receives majority support.

For the Republicans, the gubernatorial contest appears to be narrowing to a choice between former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles and businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to former President George W. Bush.

Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, an oysterman, has attracted a great deal of national media attention of late and will likely do so throughout the general election campaign. The Susan Collins-Graham Platner contest will be one of the top national contests to determine the next Senate majority.

Tomorrow night, however, even though Gov. Janet Mills’ name remains on the Democratic ballot for the Senate, she suspended her campaign weeks ago when it was apparent that she could not overcome the Platner polling lead. Tomorrow’s primary election is now anti-climactic, but the general election will draw more than its share of national media attention.

The 2nd Congressional District is also of great interest. On the Republican side, two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who has again returned from Florida to run for office in Maine, is unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Democrats have an interesting primary that will likely move to the Ranked Choice rounds. The principal contenders are state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. The Democratic outcome is uncertain. Sen. Baldacci should be favored, but he is further to the center than the Democratic base voter, thus potentially giving the more liberal Dunlap a chance to prevail.

For those Maine races forced into Ranked Choice rounds, we can expect a lengthy counting period to last several days and likely well into next week if not beyond.

Nevada

The Governor’s race is virtually locked. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) will very likely face Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in what will, again, be a tight statewide general election finish in the Silver State.

In the 2nd Congressional District from which GOP incumbent Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) is retiring, we see 12 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. State Conservation Secretary and ex-state Sen. James Settelmeyer appears to be the favorite. However, in such a large field and with only Settelmeyer and financial advisor David Flippo raising or self-funding significant money, one of those two will potentially win tomorrow night.

Democrats are raising significant funds, and despite the fact that we see a partisan lean of 53.8R – 40.5D (Dave’s Redistricting App), expect the Democrats to put this seat in play once one of their 11 candidates claims the nomination. Nevada has a plurality primary system, so we will see winners clinching tomorrow night.

North Dakota

Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary. For the Democrats, we see 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer returning for a rematch. In 2024, he lost to Fedorchak by a whopping 69-30 percent count. Expect a similar result in the 2026 re-match.

South Carolina

The open Republican battle to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is, like the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary, a multi-candidate affair where the outcome is still undetermined. It is conceivable that any combination of the five candidates could advance to the June 23 runoff election.

The candidates are: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who holds the Trump and McMaster endorsements, Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and businessman Rom Reddy.

Polling has been prevalent and, at one time or another, each has been in runoff position. It is clear that no one will claim the nomination tomorrow night. Rather, who qualifies for the runoff will be the key story of the night. The eventual Republican nominee should cruise in the general election.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) faces credible opposition in the person of businessman Mark Lynch and others, but the Senator should easily prevail. He will not join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) as Republican incumbents who lose renomination.

In the House, the major open seat battle comes in Rep. Mace’s Charleston and Berkeley counties anchored 1st District where 10 candidates are fighting for the right to replace the three-term US House incumbent. Dr. Sam McCown and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) appear to be the most likely pair to advance into a Republican runoff. The race outcome, however, is still uncertain.

One open seat where the result is certain comes in Rep. Norman’s 5th District located south of Charlotte, NC. In a safe Republican seat, state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) is unopposed in the GOP primary. He will be the next Congressman from this South Carolina congressional district.

Florida Rep. Wilson to Retire;
Today’s Primary Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 2, 2026

FL-24

Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson

Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement for several weeks, and yesterday the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House. Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent from Congress for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery.

During her absence from the House, Rep. Wilson had continued to say she would seek re-election but now replies she was only being “politically strategic,” according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog. Wilson explained that her earlier statements were intended to avoid giving map drawers any incentive to dismantle her district during the redistricting process.

Rep. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving 12 years in the state legislature. Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81 percent of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

There are now 67 open US House seats – 38 from the Republican column and 23 from the Democratic side. An additional six seats were created through various new redistricting maps. Of the 67 openings, however, only 29 members are voluntarily retiring from elective politics (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats).

Today’s Primary Notes

Several late‑breaking stories are emerging just ahead of today’s major primary election day.

First, in Iowa, a surprising poll is charting new data waters. In the open Republican gubernatorial primary, JMC Analytics released their latest Iowa survey (May 27-28; 550 likely Iowa Republican primary voters; live interview), which posts investment executive Zach Lahn to a small 27-24 percent lead over Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City); Lahn may be in position to score an upset tonight.

The only other published poll of the GOP primary came in April from Victory Enterprises (April 14–15; 500 likely Iowa Republican primary voters). That survey showed Rep. Feenstra holding a commanding 41-8 percent lead over Lahn.

The Republican primary winner will then face State Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election promises to be highly competitive. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term.

In California, several survey research firms have recently tested the gubernatorial jungle primary. Earlier in the cycle, most polling suggested that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance to the general election. Now, however, there is growing uncertainty about whether Hilton might be edged out, potentially allowing two Democrats to qualify instead.

To recap, California places all candidates on a single primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote percentage, advance to the general election.

Four polls were conducted between May 26 and 28 by four different research firms. While all show the top three candidates – Hilton, former Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer – tightly clustered, there is no clear consensus on which two will advance to the general election. All three consistently fall within each survey’s margin of error.

It is clear the result will be extremely close, and it is possible that weeks could pass before we know definitively which two candidates advance to the general election. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, largely because election officials allow ballots to be received and counted well after Election Day. In fact, the Secretary of State has 36 days to tally and certify all ballots.

Therefore, late‑breaking developments in both Iowa and California suggest that the Governors’ races in these states could produce unpredictable outcomes. The Iowa results will likely be known tonight, but the California counting process is expected to be lengthy.

Texas Runoffs; 17 Decided Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

While the highly publicized Texas Republican primary campaign between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will be settled today, 16 US House runoffs will also be decided, including six major contests.

President Trump may have helped tilt the race in Paxton’s favor, but the early vote turnout model seems to favor Sen. Cornyn.

For US Reps. Nathaniel Moran (R-Whitehouse/Tyler), Lance Gooden (R-Terrell), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston), Randy Weber (R-Friendswood/Galveston), Veronica Escobar (D-El Paso), Pete Sessions (R-Waco), Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), and Greg Casar (D-Austin), along with open seat contenders Frederick Haynes (D-Dallas) and Jace Yarborough (R-Rockwall), today’s results will determine their general election opponents.

All eight incumbents, as well as Pastor Haynes and Yarborough, enter the fall campaign as prohibitive favorites.

Six competitive House runoff results tonight will likely determine the districts’ next US Representative. The half‑dozen include open CD-9, created under the new 2026 redistricting plan; CD‑18, featuring the incumbent pairing between Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee; and Lubbock‑based District 19, where agribusinessman Tom Sell faces conservative activist Abraham Enriquez.

Turning to the Dallas Metroplex, the CD‑33 runoff features freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch) facing former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred. Farther south along I‑35, the new redistricting‑created 35th District-anchored in San Antonio will also be decided tonight; as will the Houston open seat that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R‑Houston) risked to pursue a Senate bid.

TX-9

The newly created east Harris County-anchored 9th District is designed to elect a Republican, which is why today’s runoff will likely determine the general election winner. The two Republican candidates are investment banker and Army veteran Alexandra “Alex” Mealer, who President Trump endorses, and state Rep. Briscoe Caine (R-Deer Park), who Gov. Greg Abbott supports.

Mealer finished first in the primary with 35.8 percent, ahead of Rep. Cain’s 31.2 percent. The runoff is again expected to be close, particularly given that runoff turnout is typically lower than in the primary. The winner will face Democratic nominee Letty Gutierrez, a lobbyist and former Houston City Council staff member. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App analysis, the new 9th District carries a 51.6R–46.6D partisan lean.

TX-18

The new Houston-anchored, safely Democratic 18th District pairs veteran Rep. Al Green with special election winner Christian Menefee in a Democratic runoff that will determine which of the two members will continue his congressional career. In the primary, Menefee, despite representing only 26 percent of the newly drawn district, edged Rep. Green 46.0 to 44.2 percent. As with all runoffs, the candidate who most effectively turns out his voter base is likely to prevail.

TX-19

Agribusinessman Tom Sell came very close to winning the Republican nomination outright on March 3. He is widely expected to seal the nomination tonight. In the primary, he finished first with 40.4 percent of the vote. Because the margin between second and third place was only 193 votes, it took several weeks to determine that Abraham Enriquez had qualified for the runoff.

The closeness of the primary is of little consequence because Sell is expected to easily win tonight. With a 72.4R – 25.4D partisan lean, he will also enter the general election as the prohibitive favorite.

TX-33

The 33rd District contest is another Democratic runoff featuring candidates with prior electoral success. Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson previously represented the 32nd District, which was converted to a Republican seat during redistricting. She now faces former Rep. Colin Allred, who entered the race after withdrawing from the Senate campaign.

In the primary, Allred finished first with a substantial 44.0 to 33.2 percent margin. He also reported an approximate $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage through the May 6 financial disclosure deadline. Tonight’s winner secures the seat in November. The DRA partisan lean for the newly configured 33rd CD, now fully contained within Dallas County, is 70.9D – 26.7R.

TX-35

Texas’s new 35th CD is another product of the 2026 redistricting plan. The seat covers a large portion of the southeastern San Antonio suburbs and extends roughly halfway toward Corpus Christi. The district’s DRA partisan lean is 50.9R to 46.7D, indicating a Republican advantage but before an electorate that has the potential of becoming competitive in November.

Both parties are locked in runoffs tonight. The Republicans feature state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) battling businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen). This is another race that pits a President Trump-endorsed candidate (De La Cruz) against one who Gov. Abbott supports (Lujan).

On the Democratic side, Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia has support from party leadership as he faces former San Antonio City Council candidate Maureen Galindo, who has reportedly expressed anti‑Semitic views. Outside organizations have been “attacking” Galindo with messages aimed at appealing to and energizing far‑left voters. Democratic officials argue these ads are being funded by Republican‑aligned groups attempting to boost Galindo over Garcia in the primary.

Whoever emerges from both party runoffs tonight will set up an especially interesting general election.

TX-38

As in TX‑19, the outcome of this runoff appears largely pre-determined. Competing in the Republican contest to succeed departing Rep. Wesley Hunt in this safely Republican district (DRA partisan lean: 60.5R to 37.4D) are mortgage broker Jon Bonck and businesswoman Shelly deZevallos. Bonck led the initial primary with a 46.8 to 18.9 percent margin – just about three points short of securing the nomination outright.

Unlike the TX‑32 primary, where the challenger conceded before the runoff, deZevallos pushed this contest into a second round. While the race is still competitive, most indicators point toward a Bonck victory, though deZevallos has had sufficient resources to remain viable. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, the eventual Republican nominee is expected to hold this safely GOP seat in November.

Texas Senate Race: Not So Fast

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Senate

The Texas Senate Republican runoff is Tuesday, and President Trump’s endorsement this week of Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn has certainly drawn even more attention to this race. But is it the clinching blow? Several points suggest otherwise.

To recap, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the March 3 primary with a 41-40 percent edge over AG Paxton. The incumbent performed well in the state’s major population centers while Paxton handily carried most of the Texas rural regions with the notable exceptions of the Panhandle and South Texas.

As we have seen recently with the defeats of Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, the President has been on a strong political run in helping his endorsed candidates secure victories.

There are several reasons why the Texas situation differs from the previously mentioned campaigns. In both the Cassidy and Massie races, President Trump’s involvement centered on Republican officeholders who had openly opposed him. Trump sought to defeat Sen. Cassidy because of his vote to convict during the 2021 impeachment proceedings.

Rep. Massie, meanwhile, had long been a member who frequently broke with the President’s proposals and was widely viewed as the least loyal House Republican in terms of supporting Trump’s policy agenda.

The Texas situation is different. First, the President is not attacking Cornyn as an enemy; in fact, for a time he appeared inclined to endorse the Senator. This, even though Paxton has been a loyal Trump supporter since the very beginning of the President’s political rise in 2016.

Secondly, both four‑term Sen. Cornyn, previously elected as state Attorney General and to the Texas Supreme Court, and AG Paxton, who has won three statewide general elections and two competitive primaries, are already very well known to Texas Republican primary voters. As a result, the extent to which a last‑minute presidential endorsement can sway or energize voters on Paxton’s behalf is open to question.

Third, it’s possible the President is influenced with the latest polls because the most recent May research studies have produced results suggesting the closing trends were moving away from the incumbent.

Peak Insights (May 2-5; 800 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) found Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied with a 47-46 percent split in the Senator’s favor. The Remington Research Group and the Global Strategy Group, the latter a Democratic pollster, detected a much different result slightly later in the month. The RRG data (May 3-5; 1,810 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) reported Paxton leading 47-36 percent, while GSG (May 6-11; 600 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) saw an even wider 52-40 percent Paxton advantage.

If polls factored into the President’s endorsement, the decision may have been hasty. In the primary, the six surveys conducted closest to Election Day showed Paxton leading by an average of seven percentage points. Yet Cornyn ultimately prevailed by a single point, indicating an eight‑point average polling miss.

Additionally, polling for a runoff is even more challenging than polling for a primary. Turnout in a Texas secondary election is typically one‑third to one‑half lower than in the primary, making accurate measurement even more difficult and the results less certain.

Furthermore, turnout tends to be higher in metro areas than in rural communities, a dynamic that could help Cornyn since he did well in the cities on March 3.

While the state does not have a mass vote‑by‑mail program, it does allow in‑person early voting for roughly a month before Election Day in regular elections and over a five‑day period for runoffs. According to the Target Early Target Smart organization, which tracks early voting, three‑quarters of the 2024 Texas general‑election vote was cast before Election Day.

With early voting ending on Friday, the Trump endorsement may have less impact because a substantial share of ballots are already cast.

The Texas Senate race remains one of the more compelling contests of the 2026 election cycle and will continue to draw significant attention through the general election, regardless of Tuesday’s Republican runoff result.

While the Trump endorsement has proven golden for many Republicans seeking a party nomination, the factors outlined above suggest the outcome on May 26 could be different. Once again, significant political attention will soon be focused on the Lone Star State.