Category Archives: Polling

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.

Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

Understanding the Polls

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 23, 2027

Senate

Senate polling over the past two weeks shows a modest uptick for Democratic candidates, but the question remains whether these numbers will translate into victories.

If recent election cycles are any guide, the answer is likely no. Data from the past three national elections consistently show that pollsters tend to underestimate Republican strength while more accurately projecting the Democratic vote share.

The pattern is clear when examining four key states in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. All four feature close Senate races this year.

In Texas, the 2020 polling averages suggested President Trump would win by roughly one point; he carried the state by six. In 2024, the averages pointed to a six-point Trump margin, but he ultimately won by 13.

Iowa largely displayed the same trend. Polling in 2020 projected a Trump win of between 1.3 and 2 points; he won by eight. In 2024, the averages showed a lead of about 4.5 points, yet he prevailed by 13.

Ohio followed suit. In 2020, Trump’s polling margin topped out at one point, but he won by eight. In 2024, the averages suggested a lead of 7.6 to 8.8 points; he finished with an 11-point victory.

Alaska also demonstrated this undercounting pattern. In 2020, Trump was projected to win by 5.6 to 7.7 points; he won by 10. In 2024, the averages showed an 8- to 10-point Trump lead; he won by 13.

Republicans hope this underpolling pattern is again present in this year’s Senate races. If pollsters continue to correctly project Democratic strength, those candidates will likely settle in the high 40s as the campaign progresses through the election prime time weeks. The numbers will shift somewhat as early voting approaches in mid October, but the broader trend is worth watching.

The table at top reflects where the dozen most competitive Senate races stand today. Democrats have two clear leaders – Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. The remaining contests are much tighter.

Two of the biggest surprises in this table are the relatively weak Minnesota numbers for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and the somewhat unexpectedly competitive Ohio polling for former Sen. Sherrod Brown. While Brown’s numbers mirror the trajectory that preceded Sen. Bernie Moreno’s upset win in 2024, they still leave him positioned for a potential comeback victory this year.

Except for Georgia and North Carolina, the margins in the other races remain close. The Democratic average in the mid-to-high 40s is encouraging for Republicans, yet Democrats being competitive in so many Republican held states is similarly heartening for the challenging party.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

Carolina’s Critical Campaigns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.

NC-Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race; he dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.

Since the March 3 primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.

North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.

Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

NC-1

North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.

In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48 percent. Despite Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.

The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by 10-plus points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.

A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (Sept. 8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43 percent, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (June 22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41 percent spread.

The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.

NC-11

The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.

Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised more than $2 million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.

NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Ager leads just 47-44 percent over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.

Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.

NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.

North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.

Nebraska’s Notable Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Senate

SurveyUSA went into the field to test the Cornhusker State of Nebraska’s electorate and it appears we may be seeing deja vu all over again in the state’s US Senate race.

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to give Republican Sen. Deb Fischer a tough race when it appeared that she would run virtually unopposed. As September closed that year, Osborn was running consistently ahead in multiple polls, yet ultimately lost by almost seven percentage points – despite late polling suggesting Sen. Fischer’s average advantage was under two points.

This year, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won the 2024 special election with 63 percent of the vote to serve the balance of the current term and now seeks a full six‑year stint, faces Osborn as the latter man returns to try again. Approaching mid‑September, a familiar pattern is emerging: a new poll again shows Osborn with a slight lead.

The SurveyUSA data (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely Nebraska general‑election voters; live interview and text) places Osborn ahead of Ricketts, 46-42 percent. The only other publicly released poll since the May 12th primary, conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research (Aug. 9-13; 600 likely voters; live interview), found the race deadlocked at 47 percent apiece.

SurveyUSA segmented its current results by congressional district. While the cell sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions, they offer directional insight.

As expected, Sen. Ricketts performed strongly in the heavily Republican 3rd District and trailed in the Omaha based 2nd CD. Raising eyebrows, however, was his deficit in the Republican leaning 1st District that Congressman Mike Flood (R-Norfolk/ Lincoln) represents. With only 176 respondents in that segment, the finding is not definitive, but the ballot test deficit is enough to command the attention of Sen. Ricketts’ political strategists.

Another unexpected finding came from the favorability ratings. Statewide responses for President Trump, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lynne Walz, Sen. Ricketts, and Osborn all registered negative images. Seeing all statewide figures viewed negatively may reflect the broader political frustration appearing across much of the country.

Supporting the frustration interpretation, a YouGov national online survey for CBS News (Sept. 8-11; 1,809 registered voters) found nearly identical unfavorable ratings for both major parties: Republicans were negatively viewed by a 43:56 ratio and Democrats at a 44:56 negative proportion.

Yet even with Gov. Pillen’s poor 35:52 favorability score, he still leads Walz – a former state Senator and cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz – by a 43-35 percent margin in the SUSA ballot test. Such conflicting and sometimes counterintuitive resultshave seemingly become commonplace throughout much of the country.

As Republicans appear to be facing a difficult national environment – potentially losing the House majority and seeing their Senate advantage threatened – the question becomes whether voters will turn to a Democratic Party they view with comparable dissatisfaction.

The closing weeks of the 2026 campaign may therefore produce unexpected messaging choices and unconventional strategic decisions as candidates and party leaders navigate through what increasingly looks like a demoralized electorate.

Kansas Now In Play

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Senate

One of the Democratic Party’s 2026 objectives in its bid to regain the Senate majority is to push the maximum number of Republican seats into the competitive realm.

The death of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has placed that typically safe GOP seat into competitive mode, as have the credible Democratic candidacies that are emerging in Alaska and Iowa.

Party strategists have also taken the unusual step of persuading three Democratic nominees – in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota – to withdraw in favor of coalition aligned Independents, each a former Democrat or clear liberal ideologue, in hopes of consolidating enough support to tighten those races.

The party leaders’ similar quest fell short in Montana, where Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead declined to step aside for former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an Independent.

The latest state to show signs of competitiveness is Kansas. A new Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 12-16; 800 likely voters) finds Democrat Adam Hamilton holding a narrow 44-43 percent edge over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas polling finding a Democrat within striking distance in September is not unusual, however, and recent history suggests caution in interpreting such numbers.

Certainly, this is not the first time in recent memory where we have seen Kansas polling data putting the Democratic nominee on the same footing as their Republican opponent only to see the GOP prevail by about 10 percentage points on election day.

Sen. Marshall himself faced similar polling volatility in 2020. That September, he led in two polls, trailed in two, and was tied in two more. He ultimately won the open Senate race with a 53-42 percent margin.

The pattern was even more pronounced in 2014, when four term incumbent Pat Roberts (R) appeared to be in serious trouble. This campaign started as a three-way contest among Sen. Roberts, the Democratic nominee, and a strong Independent, Greg Orman, who would eventually narrow the race to a choice between he and the incumbent.

In September of that year, Orman led in six of eight polls and the two were tied in a ninth. Roberts nevertheless prevailed by the same 53-42 percent spread as Marshall would six years later.

Therefore, seeing a Kansas Senate race close in the month of September before a regular election is nothing new. It is important to remember, that regardless of polling reports, the last time a Democrat was elected as a Jayhawk State US Senator came in 1932.

Democrats, however, have fared better in gubernatorial contests, winning seven races since 1932, most recently with current two term Gov. Laura Kelly. Kathleen Sebelius also won two terms in 2002 and 2006. Over that same period, Republicans have elected 13 governors.

Hamilton, a Methodist minister, has run a credible campaign and performed well financially. According to Federal Election Commission pre primary filings through July 15, he raised $4.2 million and reported $1.7 million cash on hand. Sen. Marshall raised $6.2 million over the same period and entered the late summer stretch with nearly $5.4 million in his campaign account. A noticeable uptick in spending from the Senator’s campaign will occur in the coming days and weeks.

It is probable that both the Kansas and South Carolina Senate races will soon show a stronger Republican trend and they will likely exit the competitive board as election day approaches. For now, however, each warrants monitoring in case signs of a long shot upset begin to crystallize.

The Democrats’ Independent Ploy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.

The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.

Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lieutenant Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the US Senate.

In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (Aug. 11-13; 500 likely Idaho voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18 percent lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (Aug. 16-19; 608 likely Idaho voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32 percent.

Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (July 28-30; 1,213 likely Idaho general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21 percent.

Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.

Montana

Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2 primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Alme.

Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.

In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.

The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Montana general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46 percent, Bodnar follows at 30 percent and Bankhead at 15 percent. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46 percent each.

The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22 percent advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.

Nebraska

Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.

Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59 percent of the vote.

South Dakota

The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.

A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (Aug. 13–17; 500 likely South Dakota general election voters) showing Bengs pulling into a 44-44 percent tie with Sen. Rounds.

It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.

Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 31, 2026

Entering the final month of the primary election calendar, three Democratic nomination contests will be decided in tomorrow’s plurality elections. Sen. Ed Markey (D) appears well positioned to defeat his intra party challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), who is risking his seat to pursue the Senate race, thereby creating an open 6th District race.

In the Boston area, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) is facing a credible Democratic challenger in his 8th District battle for renomination.

Senate

In this late stage US Senate primary, we reach the culmination point of a contest that began a year ago when six-term Rep. Moulton surprisingly announced that he would challenge veteran Sen. Ed Markey.

Six years earlier, when facing a high profile primary opponent, Sen. Markey defeated then Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by 10 points, despite beginning the race significantly behind in early polling. At the time of the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Markey had already won two statewide elections, 18 US House contests, and two races for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Heading into tomorrow’s vote, Markey has won 23 Bay State elections, translating into 52 consecutive years in public office.

Polling indicates that Markey is in strong position to win again. The University of New Hampshire Research Center’s June Bay State Poll (June 18–23; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) showed Markey leading Moulton 41-35 percent. The university’s most recent survey (Aug. 20–24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found the Senator’s advantage expanding dramatically to 63-28 percent. Three additional surveys conducted between the two UNH polls showed Markey averaging roughly 55 percent support.

Both candidates mounted serious fundraising efforts. Sen. Markey reported receipts of just over $8 million, while Rep. Moulton raised more than $6 million.

Though the race has drawn limited national attention, Moulton has campaigned aggressively and adopted more liberal positions to appeal to the party’s sizable leftwing faction.

Rep. Moulton is a credible challenger, but the Markey legacy, built over decades of electoral success, remains a formidable barrier. Based on available polling and public indicators, Sen. Markey appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.

MA-6

With Rep. Moulton running statewide, his northeast Massachusetts 6th Congressional District – stretching from Boston to the New Hampshire border and from Andover eastward to the Atlantic Ocean – is open for the first time since the 1978 election. The contest will probably produce a winner who narrowly lost a congressional primary eight years ago.

Former Andover Selectman and ex Biden Administration official Dan Koh appears to hold a discernible advantage over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D-Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and two additional candidates. According to a wrap up Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 20–23; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview), Mr. Koh holds a 35-20-12-8 percent advantage over Nguyen, Beccia, and Belsito, respectively.

In 2018, Koh lost the 3rd District Democratic primary to Lori Trahan by just 145 votes. Trahan went on to win the general election and is now unopposed for renomination to a fifth term.

MA-8

The other Massachusetts race of note is the Democratic primary challenge to 13-term Rep. Lynch in a district with a distinguished political lineage. Two US Presidents and one of the most famous House Speakers have represented this Boston-anchored seat.

Before his election to the Senate and later the Presidency, John F. Kennedy served three terms in this congressional district. After leaving the White House, President John Quincy Adams returned to Massachusetts and won eight elections to this district, serving in the House until his death in 1848. Tip O’Neill succeeded Kennedy, represented the district for 34 years, and reigned for a decade as Speaker of the House.

This year, attorney and former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath has assembled a notable support coalition that includes teachers’ unions, the Boston Globe, and his former boss, ex Gov. Deval Patrick. Roath posted a stronger fundraising total – just under $1.3 million – than Rep. Lynch, who raised $910,000, though the Congressman entered the final week with a $400,000 cash on hand advantage.

Roath touts a large grassroots operation and tomorrow will reveal whether his extensive precinct organization can produce a major upset. Rep. Lynch is not viewed as one of the more liberal members of the Massachusetts delegation, so the contest bears watching, particularly in a cycle that has already seen 11 US Representatives lose renomination. Even so, the odds still favor Rep. Lynch to prevail in his quest for a 14th term.