Category Archives: Polling

Flawed Texas Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 26, 2026

Senate

We are about to see a new wave of Texas Senate polling, but will the accuracy rate be better than what was produced for the March 3 primary election?

A new Change Research survey conducted for the Agave Social Welfare Fund (March 17-19; 807 registered Texas voters; online) finds Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn 42-39 percent in the upcoming May 26 Republican runoff election, but if polling accuracy from the primary is an indicator, this result means little.

As you may remember, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the GOP Senate primary with a 42-41-13 percent spread over Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). According to the last six polls conducted during the final 11 days before the primary, the period covering Feb. 19 through March 2, Paxton was leading the race by seven points according to the mean average figure from the concluding six polls.

The six research firms conducting the surveys were: Peek Insights (Feb. 19-23; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 529 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Victory Phones (Feb. 24-25; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Quantus Insights (Feb. 26-27; 939 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 547 likely Texas Republican primary voters), and YouGov (Feb. 26-March 2; 1,659 likely Texas Republican primary voters).

The one closest from this group conducted their study furthest from the election, Peek Insights, over the Feb. 19-23 period. Peek found a 36-36-14 percent result, which is very close to the actual 42-41-13 percent.

Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24) was furthest away. The firm found Paxton holding a twelve point, 42-30 percent, advantage. In actuality, the Blueprint result was close regarding Paxton’s preference figure, but well away from Cornyn’s support level and margin.

Looking at the aggregate result from the six aforementioned pollsters, the Paxton average lead of seven points means the group cumulatively missed the final tally by eight points when adding Sen. Cornyn’s actual one-point edge.

Therefore, the new Change Research 42-39 percent ballot test conclusion should be viewed with a wary eye since the cumulative primary data, by and large, badly missed the mark.

On the Democratic side in a Senate nomination race where state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) outright by a 52-46 percent margin, four pollsters conducted surveys prior to the March 3 primary. The results were mixed.

The four research firms conducting surveys during the Feb. 23 – March 2 period were Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 472 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Public Policy Polling (Feb. 25; 599 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 850 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and YouGov (Feb.26-March 2; 2,408 likely Texas Democratic primary voters).

Emerson College’s 52-47 percent ballot test result with Talarico leading was virtually right on target. Public Policy Polling was also close with their 48-42 percent split, a six-point spread that proved correct.

The two missed surveys were from Blueprint Polling (52-40 percent; correctly projecting the Talarico percentage but badly underestimating Crockett’s support), and YouGov (53-40 percent, basically the same ballot test result as Blueprint). YouGov, as well, correctly determined the Talarico support level but severely undercounted the Crockett support base.

Because Talarico won the Democratic primary without a runoff means we won’t see any significant general election polling until the electorate breaks closer to the November vote. Some polls will be released, of course, but they are likely to show what early cycle Texas studies commonly project: a tight race. Until October, expect close polling but allow for a wide accuracy curve.

Idaho in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Senate

A new poll suggests that the Idaho Senate race may become the 2026 version of what we saw unfold in Nebraska two years ago.

In the 2024 Cornhusker State US Senate election, Independent Dan Osborn was able to garner the Nebraska Democratic Party’s support, and with strong fundraising catapulted himself into a competitive battle with Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer prevailed with a six-point victory margin, but not without enduring a period where several consecutive public polls staked Osborn to a lead.

Left: Three-term Idaho incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Right: Challenger Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative

A new Public Policy Polling survey (March 16-17; 639 likely 2026 Idaho general election voters; live interview & text) released on Friday found Idaho Independent candidate Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative, posting a three-point ballot test edge (41-38 percent) over three-term incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Whether this study is a trend setter or an anomaly remains to be seen, but the data deserves examination.

Apparently, the incumbent’s age will be an issue. Risch will be 83 at the time of the election, and his long career in elective politics appears to be an Achilles talking point as the campaign begins in earnest.

Risch was elected to the US Senate in 2008 after serving for seven months as Governor before returning to his position as Lieutenant Governor. Prior to winning statewide office, Risch served 21 non-consecutive years in the Idaho Senate. Except for a six-year stint when he was out of elective politics, Sen. Risch has been in public office continually since the end of 1974.

In an interview with the Idaho News, a left-leaning website covering Boundary County located at the northernmost point of the Idaho Panhandle that borders Canada, Achilles said, “voters want a Senator who will stand up to monopolies, defend free markets, protect small businesses and producers, safeguard families online, and remain sharp and effective for the full six-year term.”

The Achilles Senate effort should be taken seriously. According to his claims, the Independent candidate has “nearly 1,000 volunteers and attended more than 100 events that cover all 44 Idaho counties.” He also has raised $350,000 for his statewide effort, but that amount compares poorly to Sen. Risch’s reported $3.87 million year end cash-on-hand figure.

On the Senator’s side is his campaign history. Counting his two bids for Lieutenant Governor and three US Senate contests, Risch has won every statewide race in which he has participated. In those five campaigns beginning in 2002, he has averaged an even 60.0 percent of the vote and has a strong base of support within the Republican Party.

Candidate filing closed March 6, and Sen. Risch drew only three minor Republican primary opponents: data engineer Joe Evans, construction contractor Danny LaVe, and paper mill operations supervisor Josh Roy.

What may hurt Achilles’ effort in the general election is the Democrats having their own nominee. Realtor David Roth is unopposed for the Democratic US Senate nomination and will advance into the general election, though he will have little in the way of resources with which to compete.

While Achilles, who resigned from the state House to devote full time to his Independent bid for the Senate, is clearly making a serious effort to construct a competitive campaign, he will need the Democratic leadership to force their eventual nominee out of the race so the party could endorse, or at least not impede, his stronger Independent effort opposite Sen. Risch.

Such a Democratic move, however, might prove to be a two-edged sword. While the Democrats not having their own nominee would help Achilles evolve the race into a two-way affair, the party leaders officially endorsing the Independent would hurt his ability to carve the centrist ideological path that he desires, especially since he served as a Democrat in the state House as recently as July.

While the PPP poll suggests that Sen. Risch may not be as strong as one would have believed when first glancing at the 2026 national Senate political card, Achilles still faces a difficult task of putting this race into play even though he is constructing a credible early effort.

Accounting for the most obvious positive and negative factors, Sen. Risch must still be regarded as the determinative favorite for re-election.

California’s 1st District:
A Tale of Two Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 23, 2026

House

Northern California’s 1st Congressional District. See interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Rep. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R).

It was thought that when Gallagher announced, he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2 and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win.

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Gallagher would not enter the regular election and McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11. Gallagher actually entered the regular term race and McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats. But, with few options, Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move — and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed — was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district. Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat — non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney — also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect.

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot, and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an Aug. 4 runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign. Now it will be more difficult for Gallagher to reach 50 percent because Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2 regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained.

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (Feb. 24-28; 700 likely CA-1 regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30 percent margin with Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.

Kentucky Senate: A GOP Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 20, 2026

Senate

A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Cameron and Barr.

The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29 percent over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13 percent support figure.

Two polls from last month found Rep. Barr, who has a huge resource advantage over Cameron, claiming the first position.

A Feb. 4 online Quantus Insights study of 870 likely Republican primary voters saw a virtual tie at the top – Barr leading 28-27 percent – with Morris pulling 17 percent. The Emerson College Kentucky Senate poll (Jan. 31-Feb. 2; 523 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) likewise found a similar result, 24-21-14 percent, with Barr leading Cameron and Morris in said order.

Therefore, at this point, two months before the May 19 primary election, we see an evolving close finish with Barr having a slight edge.

One place where the Congressman has a clear advantage relates to fundraising and campaign resources. New reports will be made public in a month, but the year-end 2025 totals found Mr. Barr holding at that time $6.5 million in his campaign account versus just $630,000+ for Mr. Cameron.

Mr. Morris has also raised or self-funded more than $6 million, but he had spent three-quarters of his resources before the end of 2025. He reported $1.4 million in the bank at that time, so he too is considerably behind Rep. Barr in terms of reserved campaign dollars. Morris could loan further money to the race, but the question remains as to how far he will tap his personal assets to compete in this Senate campaign.

Since only 25 percent of the Morris campaign assets come from others, it is likely that he will have to further rely upon himself to promote his campaign effort. He will be receiving major support from the substantial unconnected Super PAC that Musk supports, but obviously the Morris campaign cannot control or influence the entity’s messaging strategy.

The Democrats are clearly in the underdog position in this race, and have been since Gov. Andy Beshear, who could have put the open Senate race in play, opted to prepare a run for President.

Four of the seven filed Democratic candidates are competitive for the nomination. Former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, is a strong fundraiser, but she fared poorly in a 2018 congressional campaign against Rep. Barr and in a challenge opposite Sen. McConnell two years later.

State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D-Louisville), former state Representative and 2020 and 2022 US Senate candidate Charles Booker, and thoroughbred horse trainer Dale Romans also have a chance to claim the party nomination.

Post-primary, the eventual Republican nominee will be rated as the favorite to win the general election and succeed Sen. McConnell, the former Majority Leader, who will leave the body next year after serving what will have been 42 years in office.

Three Now Battling for
Louisiana Senate Seat

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 19

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challengers to hold his US Senate seat.

It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.

A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.

The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (March 7-10; 500 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21 percent advantage over Rep. Letlow and Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43 percent edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.

The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the Feb. 21-23 period (600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21 percent with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32 percent) and Letlow (36-27 percent) in runoff scenarios.

Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling.

Quantas (Feb 23-24; 1,428 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20 percent split with Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32 percent in Fleming’s favor.

JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 Louisiana likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22 percent lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.

The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.

In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker and Majority Leader both hail from Louisiana.

A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.

Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.

Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Fleming.

Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.

How Polls Can Mislead

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 16, 2026

Polling

Polling is an important element in campaigning for office and also an invaluable tool in helping to forecast elections, but one that can also mislead. That’s why it’s so important to understand the polling methodology in order to best comprehend what the data tells us.

A good example of not taking a ballot test at first glance comes in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary where two polls taken within the same relative time frame are producing very different results. Delving into the methodology gives us a better idea of which pollster has the better information.

The 2nd District is Maine’s northern congressional seat that encompasses most of the Pine Tree State’s vast land area and stretches to the Canadian border. The major population centers are the cities of Bangor, Augusta, and the Lewiston-Auburn metro area. Four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is not seeking re-election.

The ME-2 seat is also the most Republican congressional district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House of Representatives. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national general election campaigns. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation shows a 52.9R – 41.1D split. The 2026 open race here may become the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the nation.

The 2026 campaign features former two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who faces only minor opposition for the Republican nomination, and two major Democrats vying to become their party’s standard bearer: state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), brother of former Governor, ex-Congressman, and previous state Sen. John Baldacci, and State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

The conflicting polls in question come from the Maine-anchored Pan Atlantic Research firm conducting its regular “Omnibus Poll,” and Tulchin Research for the Dunlap campaign.

The methodology disclosure for the Pan Atlantic survey reveals that 810 likely voters were questioned online during the period of Feb. 13 through March 2nd. Tulchin conducted their survey soon after Pan Atlantic finished, from March 5-8 of 400 likely ME-2 voters, via multiple sampling techniques.

When looking at the 2nd District Democratic primary, Pan Atlantic projects Sen. Baldacci as holding a significant 36-14-12 percent advantage over Dunlap and former congressional aide Jordan Wood, respectively. Tulchin, however, found a very different result. According to the TR ballot test, it is Dunlap who holds a 36-29-11 percent lead over Sen. Baldacci and Wood.

Obviously, the two pollsters come to contrary conclusions as to what may happen in this particular political campaign. Digging deeper, we can find which of these two surveys is likely the more accurate predictor.

Looking at the Pan Atlantic methodology, we see, as previously stated, that 810 likely voters have been surveyed. This, however, is the number for the entire state and contains many more than just 2nd Congressional District likely Democratic primary voters. The Tulchin Research data focuses only on the 2nd District, and though their sample size of 400 respondents is approximately only half the size of the Pan Atlantic aggregate, in actuality it is the better sample.

Looking closely at the Pan Atlantic report, we find that only 144 individuals comprise the 2nd District Democratic primary subset. This is barely large enough to form a segment cell let alone a sample for an entire congressional district. Therefore, while this Pan Atlantic survey is viable to forecast the statewide general election races, its candidate preference data for the 2nd District Democrats that shows Sen. Baldacci holding a large lead should be discarded.

The better picture comes from the Tulchin Research data. Their polling sample of 400 likely partisan primary voters is sound, thus the projection of Dunlap leading the Democratic primary beyond the polling margin of error is the more believable study.

Expect this Democratic primary to be hard fought through the June 9 primary election. The winner will then face former Gov. LePage in what promises to be a highly competitive general election congressional contest in a race that carries national implications relating to which party will control the House of Representatives in the next Congress.

Illinois Senate Senate Democratic
Primary Race Tightens in Week

(VIEWER WARNING: this is the original, unedited, candidate-approved video version straight from Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s official YouTube campaign website. Before you click on this to watch, we must warn you that it contains much unedited profanity.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 13 2026

Senate

The Illinois Senate Democratic primary, which will be determinative in terms of who will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), is scheduled for next Tuesday, and the race is closing tight.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has led the open statewide primary from Day 1 and most polling, but not all, still shows him maintaining at least a small advantage. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has enjoyed strong outside support, which to a degree has checked Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s major campaign fundraising advantage (better than 7:1 over Stratton).

Furthermore, two March Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys find her taking the slightest of leads. Yet, two other surveys still see Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding first place.

The Lieutenant Governor is creating controversy and absorbing push back, however, because of her new ad (shown above) showing various individuals using censored profanity to express their displeasure with President Trump. Therefore, the final week of this campaign is proving interesting.

The most recent PPP poll for Democratic Lieutenant Governors Assn (March 9-10; 700 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects Stratton to a 32-30-13 percent advantage over Rep. Krishnamoorthi and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). For a time early in the race, it appeared that Kelly could make this a three-way contest but she has failed to catch fire.

A week earlier, the PPP tracking survey (March 2-3; 577 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found a similar 33-30 percent Stratton lead. The previous track (Feb. 23-24; 546 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), however, saw Krishnamoorthi ahead by an equivalent 29-27 percent spread.

During the same early March time period, two different pollsters, Tulchin Research and Change Research, continued to detect Krishnamoorthi as the front runner by margins beyond the polling margin of error.

The most recent of these latter polls, from Tulchin (March 4-8, 600 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), sees the Krishnamoorthi margin at a still substantial 39-28 percent. Change Research reported almost identical numbers. According to the CR results (March 3-5; 717 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; online) the spread is 36-26 percent.

The combined surveys tell a conflicting story, but it is important to remember that all of the research studies showing Stratton leading come from one pollster, Public Policy Polling, using a consistent methodology. The studies repeatedly posting Krishnamoorthi to the first position are from seven different pollsters, even including Public Policy Polling, during the early June to late February period.

Considering Krishnamoorthi’s large cash reserves – he disclosed over $6.5 million in the bank through the Feb. 25 Federal Election Commission pre-primary reporting period – one must surmise that most of the money, after a late media blitz is financed, will go toward voter turnout programs.

The Lieutenant Governor’s outside support comes largely from two sources. The first is a Super PAC spending approximately $7 million, which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and his family largely fund, with the second being the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association. It is also presumed that the Pritzker organization and labor unions supporting her effort will be running the major voter turnout programs on the Stratton campaign’s behalf.

Illinois is a plurality primary state, so the candidate attracting the most votes next Tuesday will be victorious irrespective of percentage attained. Therefore, either Rep. Krishnamoorthi or Lt. Gov. Stratton will claim the Democratic nomination on March 17 and then proceed into a long pro forma general election campaign.

With Illinois being one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, the Senate campaign will not be a Republican general election conversion target. Therefore, Tuesday’s winner will coast through to November and take the Senate seat when the new Congress is sworn into office next January and Sen. Durbin exits the political stage after what will be 44 years in Congress.

Rep. Issa to Retire From CA-48;
Non-Partisan Rep. Kiley to Run in CA-6

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 10, 2026

CA-48

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

In another House retirement decision, veteran California US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) reversed course and announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election this fall.

The new California redistricting plan was not kind to Rep. Issa, but he initially made statements predicting victory in the new version of District 48. Under the current map, the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation revealed a 58.3R – 39.8D split for CD-48. The new Dave’s Redistricting App version, in use for the 2026 election, yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan lean.

Though the Democratic map drawers attempted to make this a seat for their new party standard bearer, the numbers suggest a competitive contest will develop potentially resulting in a toss-up rating.

With the news of Issa’s intended retirement, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R), who was running in Congressional District 49 against Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), will change his focus and move into what will now be an open 48th CD.

Desmond, who represents much of CA-48 on the county Board, will be a strong candidate for the GOP and can now compete in a district more favorable for a Republican. New District 49 carries a 53.8D – 45.3R partisan lean according to the DRA calculations.

There are 12 announced CA-48 Democratic candidates. California candidate filing closed on Friday but because the incumbent did not file in this district, the deadline extends until March 11. Therefore, it becomes unclear exactly how many individuals will ultimately qualify.

Among the notable Democratic individuals who had previously announced are frequent candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, and Vista City Councilwoman Corinna Contreras.

A recent Public Policy Polling company survey (Feb. 16-17; 727 registered CA-48 voters; live interview and text) produced a 40-18 percent Issa lead over Campa-Najjar with no other potential candidate even reaching the 10 percent level.

Under California’s top-two jungle primary system, all contenders will compete in a June 2 qualifying election. The top two finishers, regardless of partisan affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the general election. Under the new lineup, Supervisor Desmond appears as a lock to advance, because he will likely coalesce the Republican vote, while the large Democratic grouping will split their party’s votes and battle for the second qualifying position.

While the partisan lean slightly favors the Democrats, the CA-48 election could conceivably develop into a toss-up general election campaign as previously mentioned. Without Rep. Issa in the race, however, the eventual Democratic finalist will begin the general election with a slight advantage.

CA-6

As candidate filing was coming to a close in northern California’s 6th District, we see 3rd District Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin) filing in this domain while 6th District incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is seeking re-election in the adjacent District 3.

Rep. Kiley appeared indecisive about where he would run. Most observers believed he would file against Republican Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, which stretches all the way to the Fresno area. The 5th is one of four Republican favorable districts in the state after the new redistricting plan was enacted.

Kiley clearly did not want to challenge Rep. Bera in CD-3, so as the filing deadline drew near the Congressman announced that he would enter the District 6 race indicating that he did not want to run in a place, meaning CD-5, that didn’t include his hometown.

District 6, located to the north and east of downtown Sacramento and stretching to the city of Roseville, is now as Democratic as District 3 (each new draw for Districts 3 and 6 show a partisan lean of approximately 53D – 46R). While running in CD-6 does not provide Kiley with a partisan edge, he isn’t facing a fellow incumbent.

His surprise move, likely in an attempt to negate some of his partisan disadvantage, is to file as a No Party Preference candidate, meaning an Independent.

While he isn’t opposing Rep. Bera, Kiley does have a group of formidable Democrats to overcome. In the field are Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and ex-state Sen. Richard Pan. In all, six Democrats, four Republicans, and Rep. Kiley on the NPP ballot line appears to be the 6th District field.

How Rep. Kiley not filing as a Republican helps him remains a subject of debate. While he is trying to ditch the GOP party label in an area where it is unpopular, he loses the institutional party support and likely many donors. He begins the campaign with just over $2 million in his campaign account, which should be enough to run a credible campaign if the money is spent late in the campaign cycle.

Both CA-48 and CA-6 will be districts to watch in the June 2nd qualifying election and the November campaign.

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.

New Minnesota Data Not So Lopsided

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 17, 2026

ICE & Minnesota

A new Emerson College political survey suggests that the adverse publicity from the ICE controversy in Minneapolis may not be favoring Democrats to the degree one might have anticipated considering the intense media coverage surrounding the issue.

The Emerson College poll (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) actually finds that a plurality of the Minnesota poll respondents do not support abolishing ICE (42 percent in favor; 46 percent opposing), and recently recruited US Senate candidate Michele Tafoya (R), a former national sportscaster, trails in a general election ballot test by only six percentage points.

Tafoya fares basically the same when individually paired with both Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake): 47-41 percent against Flanagan, and 47-40 percent opposite Craig.

Not surprisingly, as he is nationally, President Trump’s approval rating is upside-down, largely due to the ICE situation and negative perceptions about the economy. His Minnesota favorability index is 39.1 – 56.3 favorable to unfavorable.

Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) approval is also in negative territory (41.4 – 47.0 percent), and that is largely because of the public assistance program fraud scandal, a story that has temporarily disappeared because of the ICE coverage, but one that will certainly return during the campaign.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is running for Governor, is positively regarded but not overwhelmingly so with a 48.1 – 40.7 percent favorability index. While Tafoya is already running relatively close to her potential Democratic opponents in the Senate race, Sen. Klobuchar posts positive ballot test results of more than 50 percent against two potential Republican opponents, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (51.1 – 37.7 percent), and My Pillow company owner and spokesman Mike Lindell (52.8 – 30.9 percent).

Though Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in presidential campaigns – the last Republican national nominee to carry the domain was Richard Nixon in 1972 – the partisan divide is not in landslide proportions. In fact, through President Trump’s three campaigns, the combined Democratic nominees, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris, averaged 49.9 percent of the vote. For his part, Trump recorded an average support figure of 45.6 percent over the same three elections.

While the Democrats control all of the statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the congressional delegation is split evenly at 4D – 4R. In the legislature, Democrats have only a one seat majority in the state Senate, and the state House of Representatives is tied between the parties.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a statewide partisan lean for Minnesota of 51.3D – 43.2R, but the Republican lean number still surpasses the Democratic figure in four of the eight congressional districts.

Another indication that the state could become more competitive than recent statewide election results suggest is the responses to the ICE and immigration questions on the Emerson College poll.

While the respondents certainly believe that the ICE presence in communities has been more harmful (60.2 percent) than beneficial (36.2 percent), a plurality of the survey participants (42.3 percent) would not only oppose disbanding ICE, but they also favor the Trump Administration’s immigration policies to that of the Biden Administration (35.0 percent).

The Republican leadership recruiting Tafoya, a well-known sports broadcasting figure in Minnesota throughout her entire career, appears as a strong move.

With the Democrats making offensive moves in the North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska Senate races, Republicans need to expand their conversion opportunities beyond Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia. A competitive run from Tafoya in Minnesota could significantly boost their already strong chances of holding the Senate majority.

The Democrats would have to win four of their five top conversion opportunities to secure a bare Senate majority. They are attempting to expand their target list by adding Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas to improve their chances. Conversely, Republicans even taking one Democratic seat away would more than likely seal their majority for another two years.

The initial Emerson College Minnesota poll suggests the state could soon ascend the national Republican Senate target list and become a race to watch.