Category Archives: Polling

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Could Sen. Markey of Massachusetts Be the Next Incumbent to Fall?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 2, 2026

US Senate

A new Massachusetts political survey finds Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) closing the gap with Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a Democratic Senate primary ballot test, an early indication that Bay State Democrats could become the next constituency to seriously threaten an incumbent seeking renomination.

With the Colorado primary completed earlier this week, 31 states have now nominated candidates or advanced contenders to runoff elections. July brings only one state primary – Arizona on the 21st (and a South Dakota runoff on the 27th) – creating a brief respite before the August and September primaries conclude the 2026 nomination process.

So far, 10 incumbents have felt the wrath of their own party’s voters. Seven US House members (5 Democrats; 2 Republicans) have been defeated for renomination along with two Senators (2 Republicans). A third Senator, Colorado’s Michael Bennet (D), also lost on Tuesday, but he was running for Governor and not forced to risk his federal position.

The University of New Hampshire’s latest survey of Massachusetts voters (June 18-23; 633 likely general election voters; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows Sen. Markey’s lead over Rep. Moulton narrowing to 41-35 percent.

Though the Democratic polling sample is small for a statewide survey, the findings align with other previously released data. Emerson College’s May poll (May 3-4; 451 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) detected a 37-32 percent Markey advantage. UNH’s April Massachusetts survey (April 16-20; 353 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found Markey ahead 46-33 percent.

Though the Senator still leads in every publicly released poll, his margins are not commanding. He has failed to exceed the 50 percent support level in any statewide Democratic primary survey since October 2025.

Additional indicators suggest the race merits close attention as the Sept. 1 primary approaches. At the Massachusetts Democratic convention on May 30, Markey won a strong 72.9 percent of the 3,762 delegate votes. Rep. Moulton’s 27.1 percent share, however, easily surpassed the 15 percent threshold required to secure a primary ballot line.

Fundraising numbers also point to a competitive contest. While second‑quarter reports will not be released until at least July 15, the March 31 Federal Election Commission filing showed Moulton with $3.3 million cash on hand compared to Markey’s $2.5 million. Sen. Markey is expected to post significantly stronger numbers in the next report, potentially aided by independent coalition support. If he does not, it would further reinforce the perception of a serious primary challenge.

Should Rep. Moulton deny the Senator renomination, it will not be considered a Democratic Socialist victory. Rep. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who has won two Bronze Star medals along with a Navy and Marine Corps Commendation medal, is not a DSA candidate, and during his dozen years in the House has cast some politically moderate votes. So far in the Senate campaign, however, he has moved distinctly to the left.

While a Moulton upset would differ from the recent DSA‑aligned victories in the New York and Colorado US House primaries, it would nonetheless underscore the high level of frustration within both parties’ electorates. Should this trend persist, the general election could bring an unusually large number of incumbent defeats.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Letlow Wins Louisiana Senate Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 29, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R)

The late polling numbers suggesting that Saturday’s Louisiana Republican Senate runoff was headed for a photo finish proved inaccurate.

Despite ballot test data indicating that State Treasurer John Fleming had a chance to upset Rep. Julia Letlow (R Start), the Congresswoman instead posted a strong 57-43 percent victory, closely mirroring polling released shortly after the May 16 primary.

Rep. Letlow is now the official Republican nominee, which almost guarantees her entrance into the Senate next year.

A major theme in the later phase of the campaign was the debate over a carbon capture procedure, an issue on which Dr. Fleming sharply criticized both Rep. Letlow and Gov. Jeff Landry (R).

The carbon topic drew significant media attention and dominated much of the advertising, particularly from the Fleming campaign. At the time, many political analysts believed the carbon capture issue was moving votes, helping explain Fleming’s apparent rise in late polling.

Immediately after the primary, Rep. Letlow opened with an average 57-36 percent lead based on two public polls – Harper Polling (May 18-19; 457 likely GOP runoff voters) and Kaplan Strategies (May 24-26; 850 likely GOP runoff voters) – each showing nearly identical results.

As the runoff approached, however, the race appeared to tighten. BDPC (June 15–16; likely GOP runoff voters) found Letlow ahead just 40–38 percent. JMC Analytics (June 21–22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters), polling for the Fleming campaign, even showed its candidate leading 45-40 percent. The final pre runoff survey, from Quantus Insights (June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), placed Letlow back in front but with only a 48-45 percent edge.

With these late polls suggesting a toss up, uncertainty surrounded the final days of the campaign. Ultimately, however, the close polling proved inaccurate, and Rep. Letlow secured a decisive win.

Turnout for the runoff was abnormally high. According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s unofficial report, 316,538 votes were cast in the Republican contest, 79 percent of the May 16 primary total. Runoffs typically draw between 50 percent and 67 percent of primary participation, making Saturday’s turnout unusually strong and likely benefiting Letlow.

Dr. Fleming performed well in his former 4th Congressional District, carrying most parishes in the region. He previously represented western Louisiana for four terms in the US House before risking the seat for an unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid. The rest of the state, aside from Orleans Parish, voted solidly for Letlow. She dominated her home 5th District and performed strongly in southern Louisiana’s Cajun Country.

Although Dr. Fleming had a long-standing relationship with President Trump – including service in two Administration roles and as Deputy White House Chief of Staff – he did not receive the all-important presidential endorsement.

President Trump instead announced his support for Rep. Letlow early, even before she formally entered the race, believing she was the strongest candidate to topple Sen. Bill Cassidy in the primary and hold the seat for Republicans in the general election. It is likely that this pre-election analysis will prove correct in November.

Democrats also held a Senate runoff. Farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate Jamie Davis defeated businessman and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett by a wide 80–20 percent margin. Democratic turnout was under 197,000, far below Republican participation. Davis now enters the general election as a significant underdog against Rep. Letlow.

While national Democrats are seeking to expand the Senate map, Louisiana is an unlikely target for a major investment of campaign resources. With a statewide partisan lean of 58.3R – 41.7%D (Dave’s Redistricting App) and a Democratic nominee without a national fundraising base, the 2026 Louisiana Senate race is expected to be relatively quiet and culminate in a Republican victory.

Louisiana Senate Runoff Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 26 2026

US Senate

Louisiana GOP voters will close the loop on the party’s Senate nomination process tomorrow, as the runoff election will effectively end the marathon campaign for the state’s junior Senate seat. The May primary drew significant national attention when the challengers successfully denied two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy even a runoff ballot line.

Saturday’s runoff appears closer than many expected at the outset. Shortly after the primary, Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start) posted large polling leads over State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. As the race concludes, however, tomorrow’s outcome now appears uncertain.

The Louisiana campaign became a focal point when President Trump renewed his attacks on Sen. Cassidy over Cassidy’s impeachment vote in early 2021. Upon returning to office, the President pledged to settle the score, and his endorsed candidate, Rep. Letlow, initially performed as well as he had hoped.

Trump publicly backed the Congresswoman early – even before she had formally decided to run for the Senate. Yet Dr. Fleming, also a physician and wealthy businessman who owns or previously owned 38 Subway franchises and developed 168 UPS Stores, is likewise close to Trump.

After serving four terms in the US House and unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2016, Dr. Fleming was appointed to several posts by President Trump: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Health Technology Reform, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and finally White House Deputy Chief of Staff under then-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

When Dr. Fleming ran for State Treasurer in 2023, he earned endorsements from then-former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA). A Fleming victory tomorrow would therefore bring another Trump ally to the Senate, even though the President supported Rep. Letlow. Trump believed she would be the stronger candidate against Sen. Cassidy in a Republican runoff, which drove his decision to back her over Fleming.

Early in the runoff cycle, Rep. Letlow appeared to justify that confidence. In late May, she opened polling leads of 52-35 percent and 52-37 percent in surveys from Harper Polling and Kaplan Strategies.

The tide began to shift in mid‑June. Dr. Fleming’s decision to invest more than $11 million of his own money into his campaign communications program appears wise. Rep. Letlow’s average 16‑point advantage in early polling shrank to two points (40-38 percent; BDPC; June 21-22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) and three points (48-45 percent; Quantas Insights; June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters).

Another poll, from JMC Analytics (conducted for the Fleming campaign; June 21–22; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), even showed Dr. Fleming pulling ahead with a 45–40 percent lead.

Earlier in the cycle, Dr. Fleming appeared to be maneuvering around Federal Election Commission reporting deadlines by loaning his campaign $2 million before each filing period, then repaying himself afterward, only to re‑loan the funds before the next deadline. Ultimately, however, he invested heavily and strategically. His final $11.5 million personal loan allowed him to build a major spending advantage over Rep. Letlow, whose campaign reported raising $4.3 million through June 7.

While the Congresswoman may still hold on to win the runoff, it is clear that Dr. Fleming has the momentum heading into Election Day and effectively timed his campaign peak period.

Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator, as Democrats are not positioned to mount a competitive general election challenge. The Republican runoff should therefore be treated as the decisive election for this seat.

Turnout for the May 16 Republican primary was 401,174 individuals. Runoff participation is typically much lower, so the campaign that best identifies and turns out its supporters will prevail tomorrow night. If the late polling is accurate, this race should now be considered a toss‑up.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.