By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 17, 2026
PA District sizes & locations are approximate representations. Click on the image or here to see full interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.
PA-1
Five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) is perennially vulnerable. He’s in one of three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris yet elected a Republican to the House. Rep. Fitzpatrick has been able to score victory after victory in his Bucks County-anchored CD averaging 54.7 percent of the vote over his five elections, far exceeding the district’s partisan lean (51.8D – 46.3R – Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).
Prior to Rep. Fitzpatrick initially claiming the seat in the 2016 election, the Congressman’s brother, Michael Fitzpatrick, had held the seat for four non-consecutive terms. After spending 10 years on the Bucks County Commission, Michael Fitzpatrick was elected to the House in the 2004 election but was defeated for re-election in 2006. He would then regain the seat in 2010 and serve three consecutive terms. He did not seek re-election in 2016, yielding to his brother. Michael Fitzpatrick passed away from cancer in 2020. The Fitzpatrick family has a strong history in Bucks County politics.
This year, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces another strong candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won the Democratic primary with 64.9 percent of the vote. According to the latest June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Harvie has raised just over $2 million with an excess of $794,000 cash-on-hand post primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is in a commanding financial position, however, with over $6.3 million in his campaign account.
The 1st District will host another repeat campaign in 2026. Rep. Fitzpatrick is again favored for re-election, but a potentially adverse political climate for Republicans at the time of the election again puts this seat in the vulnerable category.
PA-7
The Keystone State’s 7th District, which is anchored in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, is like the 1st CD in that we always see close elections. In various iterations of this CD, the Republican candidates, former Reps. Pat Toomey, who would later become a US Senator, Charlie Dent, and now freshman Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie), have won a combined 11 of the past 14 congressional elections.
The last four, however, with former Rep. Susan Wild (D) winning three times, have been very close. In those four campaigns, the winning candidate has never exceeded 53.5 percent with an average of 51.7 percent. In 2024, Rep. Mackenzie unseated Wild with 50.5 percent of the vote.
This year, former Rep. Wild did not return to seek a rematch. The new Democratic nominee is former Pennsylvania Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0 percent of the vote. In the first post-primary published poll, from the Democratic firm GBAO (June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 voters), Brooks claimed a 47-43 percent lead over Rep. Mackenzie.
With a Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) calculated partisan lean of 50.2D – 47.5R, the 7th District will again return a very close finish in November.
According to the new FEC financial disclosure reports, Rep. Mackenzie holds a $2.9 million cash-on-hand advantage over Brooks’ $1.08 million.
PA-8
To the northeast of the 7th District lies the Scranton-anchored 8th CD where freshman US Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) seeks a second term after defeating six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in 2024. The Congressman’s 2026 Democratic opponent is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both Rep. Bresnahan and Mayor Cognetti were unopposed in their respective primaries, but 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the May nominating election.
Though the 8th CD slightly leans Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 50.0D – 47.9R), the district is more Republican than the other eastern PA districts. In fact, President Trump has run strongly here, carrying the seat in all three of his elections and posting a 54-45 percent win here in 2024 under the present district lines. Among the four competitive Pennsylvania US House districts, the 8th has perennially been President Trump’s strongest performer.
This will be another expensive race. The new FEC reports (reporting deadline: June 30) find Rep. Bresnahan with $2.6 million in his campaign account and Mayor Cognetti holding the advantage with $3.4 million, both taking advantage of having unopposed primaries.
Two Democratic pollsters, Lake Research Partners and Impact Research, conducted mid-June surveys and each largely arrived at the same conclusion. Each showed a basic dead heat with Mayor Cognetti leading by two and one percentage points, with both candidates scoring in the high 40s.
PA-10
The Harrisburg/York-anchored 10th District features a rematch between seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson. The 2024 election ended with a close Perry victory of 50.5 – 49.3 percent while President Trump was scoring a 52.0 – 46.8 percent here win over Kamala Harris.
Of the four competitive PA districts, the 10th is the only one where the DRA partisan lean favors the Republicans (50.7R – 46.8D). The 2022 court drawn redistricting map changed this district from one that heavily favored a conservative Republican to a politically marginal seat anchored in the state’s capital city of Harrisburg.
The 2024 race featured heavy spending with Stelson outspending the incumbent, $6.4 million to $4.6 million. According to the new FEC reports, Stelson again has the cash-on-hand advantage, $4.5 million to $2.8 million. Once more, we can expect heavy outside spending from both parties to attempt to influence the outcome.
The negatives for both candidates are that the Congressman, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is more conservative than the average constituent, and that Stelson, who anchored a television news desk in Lancaster, outside of the 10th District, is a carpetbagger.
Expect another close outcome in this highly competitive central Pennsylvania congressional district. Together, these four tight PA congressional districts could determine which party wins the House majority.