Monthly Archives: September 2024

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.

Alaska’s Peltola & Begich Now Neck & Neck; Surprising GOP Lead in MD-6; Zinke Leads in Montana Re-Election Bid; Republican Trailing in OR-5

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 9, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

AK-AL: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead — Under the Alaska top-four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.

A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 400 likely Alaska voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Republican Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45 percent. This suggests the NRCC will be going “all in” for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.

MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead — The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper but has consistently elected Democratic representatives since 2012. Earlier in the week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey (Aug. 24-31; 317 likely MD-6 voters; live interview) and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39 percent in Parrott’s favor.

Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid — Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46 percent victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D), which was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43 percent in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Tranel.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing — Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 26-28; 419 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview & text) finds the congresswoman trailing Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42 percent. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30 percent favorability index, Vice President Kamala Harris holds an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the congresswoman.

Klobuchar’s Lead in MN Narrows; Big Margins for Justice, Morrisey in WVa; Alaska’s Final Primary Numbers;
FL-13 is Neck-and-Neck

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 6, 2024

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: Surprising New Poll — Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (Aug. 25-28; 426 likely Minnesota voters) does not suggest any result other than the senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44 percent margin.

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (Aug. 27-29; 635 likely Minnesota voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the senator leading White, 50-36 percent.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Takes Command in Senate Race — In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (Aug. 21-27; 400 likely West Virginia voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the governor’s office, Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28 percent margin over Mayor Elliott.

Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey On Way to Clinching Governor’s Race — The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35 percent against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Morrisey will easily hold the governor’s position for the GOP.

House

AK-AL: Primary Numbers Final — The Alaska Aug. 20 primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9 percent of the vote in the state’s unique top-four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.

In second place was Republican Nick Begich III with 26.6 percent followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9 percent support. The fourth-place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes for less than one percent. Dahlstrom is forfeiting her general election position, and it is unclear if Salisbury will continue. Therefore, it appears that Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola in a budding one-on-one campaign.

While Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast, meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.

FL-13: A Different Perspective — Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44 percent margin. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (Aug. 28-29; 400 likely FL-13 voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43 percent advantage.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

New Senate Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

A new polling series involving several Senate races unveils some new interesting data patterns.

Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, during the period of Aug. 25-28, the Emerson pollsters queried an aggregate total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within this group, we saw serious new movement in the Wolverine and Badger States.

In Michigan, which has consistently featured a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41 percent, according to the Emerson data. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R) Emerson ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48 percent.

In most of this year’s polling, the Michigan race has returned close results, and routinely followed the pattern set in the presidential contest. In 2024, this type of trend was unusual because the other competitive states consistently found the Republican candidate running substantially behind the percentages that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump was posting.

This is not the first poll, however, that projected a separation between the two Michigan candidates. Just before Emerson went into the field with their polling series, the TIPP poll, surveying for the American Greatness organization (Aug. 20-22; 741 likely Michigan general election voters; online), found Slotkin leading by 10 percentage points, or four more than the Emerson result. At the time, the TIPP poll appeared as an anomaly; instead, the benchmark may have proved the beginning of a new trend.

The one-point Wisconsin spread Emerson finds between Sen. Baldwin and Hovde is much different than any other poll conducted since February with the exception of one survey taken at the end of June and the beginning of July. The data from that poll, which the Remington Research Group conducted, found the two contenders deadlocked in a 48-48 percent tie.

According to the Real Clear Politics data and policy site, Sen. Baldwin’s mean average lead is 6.35 percent from the 24 Wisconsin Senate polls that have been conducted this year, and the median average is seven points. Within the 24 polls, her highest margin was 12 points, reached twice, with the low being the aforementioned Remington Research tie.

It remains to be seen if the Emerson Wisconsin poll is itself an anomaly or the beginning of a new close trend.

The other Emerson results return numbers often seen in other studies. In Arizona, the Emerson data finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 49-42 percent. In the other four August Grand Canyon State surveys that four different polling entities conducted: Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Noble Predictive Insights, and the New York Times/Siena College, Rep. Gallego chronologically led Lake by 15, 8, 7, and 9 percentage points.

The Emerson Nevada numbers, which show a 10-point spread for incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) over her opponent, businessman and Afghan War disabled veteranSam Brown (R), are consistent with the three other August Silver State polls. Here, the group of pollsters is consistent with those found in Arizona except for not including Noble Predictive Insights. In these surveys, the Rosen margin was 14, 11, and 9 percentage points.

The final state in the Emerson series is Pennsylvania. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a fourth term. Here, Emerson finds Sen. Casey and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) locked in a low single-digit battle, separated by four percentage points.

Pennsylvania has seen a greater degree of August polling than the other states. In this race, pollsters have surveyed the Keystone State electorate a total of seven times. In addition to the previously mentioned pollsters, Quinnipiac University, Franklin & Marshall, and the Cook Political Report also surveyed the Senate race.

In the early part of the month, Sen. Casey had opened a large lead over McCormick, to the tune of 13, 12, and 14 percentage points. From the polls ending Aug. 8 to the present, the contest has tightened. Including two Emerson College polls, the margin between Casey and McCormick had lessened to 4, 3, 4, and 5 points, chronologically. This suggests a clear move in the contest and now becomes a campaign where the leader consistently posts only low single-digit advantages.

We can expect to see much more data coming from each of these states before the Nov. 5 election. All of these contests will have an important role in determining which party controls the next Senate majority.

The Case for Florida’s Under-Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024

Polling

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The latest Florida research surveys may not be correctly depicting the Sunshine State’s political situation; recent history indicates they may be underestimating Republican strength.

We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and now a new St. Pete Polls survey finds that 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.

Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election.

Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, but Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns.

For example, in the 2022 election, Gov. Ron DeSantis, where the Real Clear Politics website ranked his campaign status as just “Lean Republican,” was viewed to be in a much tighter contest than what the final results revealed. In that election, Gov. DeSantis won with a 19.4 percent victory margin, 59.4 – 40.0 percent, over former governor and ex-Congressman Charlie Crist (D).

The polling average, however, from the middle of October through the Nov. 8 election, according to the Real Clear Politics’ polling archives, only detected a 12.2 percent average advantage. Therefore, the cumulative polling understated the governor’s strength by approximately seven percentage points.

We saw a similar pattern in the 2022 US Senate race. There, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), at an approximate $30 million deficit opposite his general election opponent, then-Congresswoman Val Demings (D), saw a favorable polling mean average of 8.1 percentage points from the seven polls conducted from Oct. 1, 2022, through the November election. Sen. Rubio’s actual margin of victory was 16.4 points (57.7 – 41.3 percent), meaning the polling average proved 8.3 points below the Republican’s actual voting performance.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

One reason the Florida polls may be missing the GOP voting strength factor is how fast the state’s population and electorate is changing. At the end of the 2018 election cycle, the year Scott was elected to the Senate by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast, the Democrats held a 37.1 to 35.2 percent voter registration edge over Republicans, which translated into a raw number spread of 257,175 individuals.

Today, as an indicator of the drastic change that has occurred from that point in time to the present (Aug. 14th Florida voter registration report), the Republicans now hold an advantage of almost 1 million registrants (exact figure: 996,795).

It remains to be seen if the 2024 ballot test polling follows the same pattern that we saw in 2022, but odds are strong that the current data is again underestimating the Republican candidates’ actual strength.