Daily Archives: September 10, 2024

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.