Tag Archives: MI-6

CA-22 Special Election Results; Michigan Rep. Upton to Retire

California’s 22nd Congressional District

By Jim Ellis

April 7, 2022 — Voters in California’s Central Valley went to the polls Tuesday after others had mailed their ballots for the past couple of weeks to choose a replacement for resigned Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare); but, it won’t be until April 14 until we see certified results under the state’s elongated ballot-counting system. Votes can still come into county election centers through the mail but must be postmarked no later than Tuesday, April 5, in order to be counted.

The published results at this writing show former state Assembly Republican Leader and ex-Tulare County Supervisor Connie Conway leading the field of six candidates with 22,175 votes or 34.8 percent. The next closest competitor is Democrat Lourin Hubbard, a California state water official, posting 19.7 percent, or 12,546 votes. It is likely that Conway and Hubbard will advance into the special general election to be held concurrently with the California jungle primary on June 7.

The other candidates are Republican Matt Stoll with 15.1 percent (9,647 votes), Democrat Eric Garcia (15.0 percent; 9,574 votes), and Republicans Michael Maher (8.9 percent; 5,665) and Elizabeth Heng (6.5 percent; 4,119). These totals will change as more votes are counted, but the order of finish will probably remain constant. Republican candidates received 41,606 combined votes or 65.3 percent of the currently tabulated vote as compared to 22,120 (34.7 percent) for the Democratic contenders.

Fundraising was not a major factor in a race where the winner will serve in Congress only six months, because the new incumbent will have not have a place to run in the regular election under the state’s new redistricting map. Interestingly, the fundraising totals are virtually opposite of the early standings, with Heng having raised the most at $214,000 through March 16, but she languishes in last place in preliminary returns. Conway reported raising only $82,893 and Hubbard, $58,829.

The reported turnout is 63,726 voters with several thousand more ballots to be received and tabulated. As of Aug. 30, 2021, there were 415,442 registered voters in the 22nd District. At this point, the turnout is 15.3 percent but will go higher as more ballots are received and tabulated.

MI-6

With 18-term veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) facing a paired incumbent situation in a new 4th District as a result of Michigan losing a congressional seat in national reapportionment, the former House Energy & Commerce Committee chairman announced that he will retire at the end of the current congressional session. Upton’s decision brings to an end what will be a 36-year career in the US House.

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Plethora of House Polls Released; All Tell Unique Stories

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 14, 2020 — In the past several days, 14 polls in 13 competitive House districts were publicly released, and they all tell a unique story. The synopsis is below (in alphabetical order):

CO-3:
• GQR Research – Mitsch Bush (D) 43%; Boebert (R) 42%

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (Aug. 3-6; 400 likely CO-3 voters) went into the field to test Democratic candidate Diane Mitsch Bush versus Republican Lauren Boebert, who unseated Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) in the June Republican primary.

The result here is not particularly surprising considering that Boebert was a shocking upset winner in the GOP primary. Mitsch Bush has a huge cash advantage, but Republicans will likely rally around Boebert in a district where President Trump should comfortably win.

IL-13:
• RMG Research – Londrigan (D) 43%; Rep. Davis (R) 41%

After seeing the 2018 election between Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) and challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) evolve into a 50.3 – 49.6 percent result, the pair returns for Round 2. The RMG poll (July 27-Aug. 7; 400 likely IL-13 voters), though over a very long sampling period, finds what has been clear for some time, that the 2020 edition will yield another tight race.

IN-5:
• WPA Intelligence – Spartz (R) 47%; Hale (D) 40%

The new WPA Intelligence poll (Aug. 4-6; 400 likely IN-5 voters) produces the opposite result of a survey we saw from the GBAO research organization in late June (June 25-28; 500 likely IN-5 voters). The latter study projected Democratic former state representative and ex-lieutenant governor nominee Christina Hale topping Republican state Sen. Victoria Spartz, 51-45 percent.

According to the current WPA data, Sen. Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant, now holds a 47-40 percent advantage. The latter numbers are more consistent with the district’s voting history. Incumbent Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) is retiring.

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An Inexplicable Michigan Poll

By Jim Ellis

Jen Richardson, Michigan’s MI-6 Democratic candidate for Congress

July 22, 2020 — Late last night, the Jen Richardson for Congress campaign in Michigan released a Gravis Marketing survey (July 16; 604 MI-6 likely general election voters via interactive voice response system) that defies credibility. According to Gravis, Democratic candidate Richardson leads 17-term incumbent Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) by 20 percentage points, 56-36 percent.

It is difficult to know even where to begin with the analysis. Let’s first point out that Richardson, who has raised just over $57,000 according to her June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure report, is a big underdog in the Democratic primary let alone against Rep. Upton if paired in the general election.

Richardson is a teacher from Kalamazoo, running, as she describes, to be a voice for the middle class. Her Democratic opponent, however, in the intra-party election that will be decided Aug. 4, is three-term state Representative Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo), who is ineligible to seek re-election under the Michigan term limits law. In contrast to Richardson’s meager fundraising, Hoadley has attracted over $1.3 million and is the heavy favorite to face Rep. Upton in the fall campaign.

Perhaps the most glaring flaw in the Gravis poll – a survey firm that normally works for Republican candidates and often finds themselves posting better numbers for GOP contenders than other pollsters surveying the same races, e.g., Arizona president and Senate races at the end of June – is with their follow-up question.

Any established credibility ends totally when they report the generic ballot test question results, i.e., “if the election for Michigan District 6 were today and the candidates were a generic Democrat vs. a Republican, who would you vote for?” The same sampling universe that favors Richardson over Upton by 20 points chooses the generic Republican in a 46-43 percent margin.

Therefore, this poll’s results tell us that their interactive voice response system, which allows people to listen to an automated survey and then answer the questions by choosing a related number on their telephone, expects us to believe a conclusion that gives the Republican Party a three-point edge in this district, but their 34-year incumbent who has won 17 consecutive general elections in the southwestern Michigan region is 20 points behind someone who has little to no name identification?

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