Tag Archives: Kari Lake

Sinema on the Rise; Tight Senate Poll in Nevada; Democrats Coalescing in OR-5; Jackson Lee Now in Close Texas Primary; Burgum Endorses Successor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024

Senate

Arizona incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Sinema on the Rise — Two new Arizona US Senate polls were just released, and both show a significant change in the race status. First, while previous polls were projecting Republican Kari Lake as holding a small lead, this pair sees Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) moving into first place and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, running on the Independent line, substantially improving her position. Previously, she was languishing in the teens, and now both surveys find her well in the 20-plus percentile range and back in competition to potentially win re-election.

Emerson College surveyed the Arizona electorate over the February 16-19 period (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results find a 36-30-21 percent Gallego, Lake, and Sinema split.

Arizona based Noble Predictive Insights polled the state during the February 6-13 period (1,002 AZ registered voters; online) and found a similar result, 34-31-23 percent in the same order as the Emerson finding. These numbers suggest that the Sinema increase is coming at the expense of Lake and not Gallego, meaning she is pulling more Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents to her side than Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents.

Nevada: Tight Senate Poll Results — Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and KLAS-TV in Las Vegas also polled the impending Nevada Senate race (Feb. 16-19; (1,000 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) and already project a dead-heat contest. The results find Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), who is running for a second term, dropping to 40 percent support, and leading Afghanistan veteran Sam Brown (R) by only a 40-38 percent margin. The Nevada race will become a top-tier Republican challenge opportunity.

House

OR-5: Democrats Coalescing — Oregon’s 5th District race will be one of the most hotly contested US House campaigns in the country and is one of the keys toward deciding which party will control the chamber in the next Congress. One of the major OR-5 Democratic contenders ended her bid last week and endorsed an opponent. Lynn Peterson is the President of Portland’s Metro Council and was an announced congressional candidate. Seeing the race trends, Peterson dropped her bid and endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), following the lead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The 2022 nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is in the race, but losing steam. She failed against current incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) in 2022, and it’s clear the Democratic synergy is turning toward Rep. Bynum as the person most believe is the stronger candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Joe Biden carried the seat by a 53-44 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner, 51-49 percent.

TX-18: Rep. Jackson Lee in Close Primary — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey (Feb. 7-17; 450 likely TX-18 voters; text & online) of the Houston-anchored 18th Congressional District and finds a close Democratic primary developing. The ballot test projects veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), reeling from a poor performance in the Houston mayor’s race, leading former Houston city councilwoman and 2020 US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards by only a 43-38 percent spread. Minor candidate Rob Slater, a convicted felon, captures three percentage points.

This survey suggests there is a political hangover for Jackson Lee who lost badly to now-Mayor John Whitmire (D), 64-36 percent, in the December mayoral runoff. Therefore, we see another March 5 race that will draw major interest.

Governor

North Dakota: Gov. Burgum Announces Endorsement — It appears we are headed for a highly competitive open North Dakota Republican primary on June 11. Retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced his endorsement late last week of Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) to succeed him.

Miller already announced that she is bypassing the North Dakota Republican Party endorsing convention because she knows that at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former party chairman, is a lock to be the official party candidate. This forces a primary election between the two, with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the autumn campaign.

Trump Over 50 Percent in Iowa;
Dead Heats in Arizona & Michigan; Casey Expands Lead in Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 15, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Iowa Caucus Polls: Trump Over 50 Percent; Haley in Second Place — The first votes of the presidential campaign are to be cast tonight. In frigid temperatures, Iowa Republicans will attend their individual precinct caucus meetings to cast the first votes of the 2024 presidential election beginning at 7 p.m. Central time. Because of a schedule change on the Democratic side, only the Republicans are voting tonight. No non-incumbent has ever topped the 50 percent plateau, but polling shows that Trump may well exceed that number in these caucus votes.

Suffolk University released a new Iowa Caucus survey in preparation for today’s vote. This survey (Jan. 6-10; 500 likely Iowa Republican Caucus attenders), as every other Iowa poll has projected, sees former President Donald Trump attracting majority support (54 percent). Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, according to the Suffolk data, has surpassed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place with 20 percent as compared to DeSantis’ 13 percent.

In terms of interesting side questions, the sampling universe broke virtually evenly regarding the traits of the candidate they want to support. Three responses dominated the answers. The one most often articulated is the respondent’s desire to support a candidate who can defeat President Joe Biden (27.2 percent). Next, is an individual having strong moral character (25.8 percent), and a close third is a person who “has the right experience” (25.0 percent).

Asked of people who said that Donald Trump was neither their first nor second choice, 45 percent said they would support the former president if he became the party nominee, 16.5 percent said they would vote for Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 15.3 percent said they would support Biden.

No fewer than five polls have been released since Wednesday, including the survey that is typically regarded as the state’s most accurate — the Selzer & Company poll, routinely conducted for the Des Moines Register newspaper.

The Selzer poll, released late on Saturday night (Jan. 7-12; 705 likely Iowa caucus attenders; live interview) and conducted for the Des Moines Register and NBC News, found Trump below 50 percent but holding at 48 percent support, ahead of Haley, in second place again with 20 percent, and DeSantis in third, posting 18 percent preference. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy trailed in single digits with eight percent. Of the five polls conducted during the final week of campaigning, this is the only one that projects Trump with under 50 percent support.

Senate

Arizona: New Poll Shows Virtual Dead Heat — Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Replace Sinema PAC (Jan. 5-6; 590 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a dead heat developing between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, running on an Independent ballot line, significantly trails.

According to the ballot test data, Rep. Gallego would record a 36-35 percent edge over Lake with Sen. Sinema well behind with a 17 percent support figure. Among the key non-affiliated voting sector, Lake takes the largest share with 31 percent. Sen. Sinema posted 27 percent from this category, while Rep. Gallego trailed with 24 percent. If the race were a two-way contest between Gallego and Lake, the Republican would hold a 46-45 percent edge. This poll again shows that the Arizona Senate race continues as a true wild card campaign.

Michigan: Virtual Ties All Around — The Glengariff Group, a Michigan-based pollster who frequently conducts political surveys for media organizations, tested the Wolverine State electorate for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4 (Jan. 2-6; 600 likely Michigan voters) though the partisan division within the polling sample looks to have comparable numbers of Democrats and Republicans. Michigan does not register voters by political party, but it is clear through voter history statistics that the state houses at least a slightly higher number of Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, these results, though weighted to decrease a bias factor, are likely skewed somewhat toward Republicans.

The ballot test results find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and three potential Republican opponents all locked into virtual ties. Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig matches up most favorably with Rep. Slotkin, leading her 38-36 percent. Former Rep. Peter Meijer is tied with Slotkin at 36-36 percent, while former US Rep. Mike Rogers trails her by just one percentage point.

It is likely that the Michigan race will become a top-tier general election Senate campaign irrespective of which Republican candidate claims the party nomination in August.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Expands Lead — The new Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania poll (Jan. 4-8; 1,680 self-identified registered Pennsylvania voters; 746 Democrats; 651 Republicans; live interview) finds three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) expanding his lead over Republican challenger David McCormick (R) to a full 10-point advantage, 54-43 percent, an improvement of a net four percentage points when compared to the October Q-Poll. Within this survey sample, the split between Democrats and Republicans is almost spot on, with Republicans under-counted by approximately just one percentage point.

The Casey lead is strong in comparison to how President Biden fares. Biden posts a job approval rating of only 40:58 percent as compared to Sen. Casey’s 51:31 percent. The president, however, still leads former President Trump, 49-46 percent in a general election ballot test. The Pennsylvania office holder with the best job approval ratio is Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) who records a 59:23 percent favorability index.

What Kari Lake’s Senate Bid Means;
Ex-Michigan Police Chief Out to Early Lead; CA-27 Democrat Drops Bid; NJ-7 Candidate Withdraws; Houston Mayoral Runoff Likely

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023

Senate

Kari Lake (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Kari Lake Announces — As has been anticipated, 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee and former news anchor Kari Lake announced her US Senate candidacy yesterday. She enters what will likely be a three-way race with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), the latter of whom appears to be the consensus Democratic candidate. With Lake officially in the Senate race, 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters will likely withdraw. He announced a 2024 campaign several weeks ago but said he would depart if Lake entered the race.

Kari Lake has created much post-election controversy in Arizona with election fraud accusations, but she is still likely strong enough to win the Republican Senate nomination. Also in the race is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Sen. Sinema has not formally announced her re-election campaign, but she is raising money and taking action to prepare for what will be the most interesting Senate general election in the country. All three candidates will have a path to victory, so the contest officially should be rated a toss-up. This Senate race will attract a great deal of national attention as the election cycle moves forward.

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Jumps Out to Early Lead — Public Policy Polling went into the Wolverine State to test Republican primary voters and just released their results. The survey (Oct. 9-10; 430 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig beginning with a 30-19 percent Republican primary lead over former Congressman Mike Rogers in the open US Senate race. This contest will develop over time with a late Aug. 6 primary scheduled.

The winner will likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is a clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring at the conclusion of this Congress.

House

CA-27: Democrat Drops Bid — Franky Carillo, who was once convicted of murder but freed after spending decades in prison when DNA evidence proved his innocence and has since become a Los Angeles County probation officer, has ended his congressional bid. This paves the way for former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides (D) to advance into the general election to face three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita).

CA-27 is one of the most politically marginal seats in the Republican Conference, ranked as the fourth most vulnerable on the Daily Kos Elections site scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+8, but Rep. Garcia has proven a consistent winner in the north Los Angeles County district. The 2024 election, however, is the first time he will face an opponent other than former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), whom he defeated three consecutive times.

NJ-7: Mayor Withdraws — Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello (D), who originally announced a challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez (D) but dropped out to instead enter the congressional race against Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), has now withdrawn again. Signorello announced during the week that he would end his congressional effort.

The Signorello move leaves former State Department Counterterrorism official Joe Blazakis and progressive activist Sue Altman as the remaining Democrats vying for the party nomination. Others could still enter the race.

Rep. Kean will be a slight favorite for re-election in a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.5R – 46.5D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-7 as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Likely — A new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Sept. 30-Oct. 6; 800 likely Houston mayoral voters; text message), finds state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) almost assuredly advancing to a December runoff election from the Nov. 7 initial municipal vote. According to the University of Houston ballot test, Sen. Whitmire, the longest serving legislator in Texas history (first elected in 1972), leads Rep. Jackson Lee 34-31 percent among the seven tested Houston mayoral candidates. A candidate must obtain majority support to be elected outright.

Looking ahead to the succeeding runoff, Sen. Whitmire outpaces Rep. Jackson Lee by a substantial 50-36 percent margin. The best news for Sen. Whitmire is that 40 percent of the undecided voters said they would consider voting for him, while 53 percent said they would never vote for Rep. Jackson Lee. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Blake Masters to Run Again in Arizona Senate Race; New Candidate in NC-13 Race; Pfaff Passes in WI-3;
A Polling Tie in Mississippi Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 1, 2023

Senate

Blake Masters / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: 2022 GOP Nominee Preparing ’24 Senate Run — Reports are surfacing from Arizona that 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who fell to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by a 51-47 percent margin, will soon enter the current three-way Senate race. Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is expected to seek re-election possibly as the No Labels Party candidate, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is already becoming a likely consensus Democratic contender.

The Grand Canyon State contest will prove unpredictable because all three contenders, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the eventual Republican nominee, will have a pathway to victory.

Should Masters choose to enter the campaign, he will likely have Republican primary opposition. Kari Lake, the former news anchorwoman who received 49.6 percent of the gubernatorial vote in a losing effort against current incumbent Sen. Katie Hobbs (D), is also expected to become a Senate candidate. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already in the race and has been campaigning for the party nomination over a period of months.

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024, meaning this race will have a long development period.

House

NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress — State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.

In 2022, Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4 percent victory margin even though he lost the statewide count.

After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target.

WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity — State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48 percent even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive.

In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate.

Governor

Mississippi: Dem Poll Shows Tie — An Impact Research poll taken for Democrat Brandon Presley (D) in early August but just released Wednesday (Aug. 6-9; 600 likely Mississippi 2023 general election voters) produced interesting results in the Mississippi governor’s race. The ballot test finds Presley tied with Gov. Tate Reeves (R) at 46 percent, apiece. The pollsters note that Presley’s support has risen in all three of their previously conducted surveys, while Gov. Reeves has consistently dropped.

Similar polling trends were published in the 2019 governor’s race, and many believed that Reeves, then the state’s lieutenant governor, would lose to Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. In the end, Reeves scored a 52-47 percent win, a much stronger performance for the Republican than most believed would occur. Expect the Reeves campaign to soon counter with their own polling data. This year’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

DeSantis Accepts Debate Challenge; Poll Shows Gallego Leading; New NC AG Candidate; Cuellar Starting Early

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 7, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

DeSantis: Accepts Debate Challenge — Gov. Ron DeSantis has accepted the rather unusual debate challenge he received from California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a non-candidate. The idea came from an interview Newsom held with Fox News television host Sean Hannity. The California governor said he would go as long as three hours and not use any notes. He also agreed for Hannity to moderate. Details to follow.

Senate

Arizona: New Poll Finds Rep. Gallego Leading — A new Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) Arizona survey (July 13-17; 1,000 registered Arizona voters; online) finds US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), the likely 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, leading incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), and unannounced Republican candidate Kari Lake. According to the ballot test, Rep. Gallego is staked to a 34-26-25 percent advantage over Sinema and Lake. In this wild card race, as the Noble poll illustrates, all three candidates can craft a victory path.

The good news for Sen. Sinema is that 69 percent of Independents, 57 percent of Republicans, and 43 percent of Democrats say they are extremely willing, very willing, or at least somewhat willing to support her, which is a marked improvement when compared to previous research studies.

House

NC-8: Rep. Bishop to Run for NC Attorney General — As expected, three-term US Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) announced late last week that he will enter the open 2024 race for attorney general in his home state of North Carolina. The move opens his 8th Congressional District, which, for now, is a safe Republican seat. With the North Carolina map slated to be redrawn in early October, we can expect this Charlotte metro open seat to be radically changed.

Rep. Bishop is the 15th House member to announce he won’t be seeking re-election in 2024, and the fifth Republican. Of the 15, only two are retiring. The remainder are seeking other elective offices. The North Carolina attorney general’s office will be open because incumbent AG Josh Stein (D) is running for governor.

TX-28: Rep. Cuellar Starting Early — Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), generally viewed as the most conservative member of the House Democratic Conference, is taking fast action to answer two political questions.

First, if there there is a chance he might switch parties; and second, is he preparing for another Democratic primary challenge? He is clearly staying in the Democratic Party, and he is already working to blunt what could be another intra-party challenge. In the past two election cycles, he edged attorney Jessica Cisneros by a 48.7 – 46.6 percent split in 2020 followed with a bare 50.3 – 49.7 percent win in 2022.

In an attempt to unite the party behind him for the 2024 election, Rep. Cuellar late last week announced endorsements from House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), Democratic Conference chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA), Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and ex-Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC).

Robson Won’t Run in Arizona;
Second Lee Poll Confirms First in CA; First Texas Senate Poll Released; House Races Take Shape

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 30,2023

Senate

Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R) announced late last week that she would not enter Arizona’s Senate race.

Arizona: Robson Won’t Run — Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who lost a 48-43 percent gubernatorial Republican primary to Kari Lake in 2022, announced late last week that she would not enter what will be a three-way Senate race among the eventual GOP nominee, Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and who appears to be a consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Lake is a likely GOP Senate candidate.

The Arizona race continues to evolve as possibly the most interesting campaign in the election cycle considering it yields a three-way contest where each of the major candidates, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the undetermined Republican will have a legitimate path to victory.

California: Second Poll Confirms First — A second California Senate poll released in consecutive days, this one from the University of California at Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times (May 17-22; 7,465 registered California voters; 5,236 likely jungle primary voters; online), found similar results to Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) internal data from the FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies research firms that was released on Wednesday.

As in the Lee survey, Republican Eric Early is the jungle primary leader. The LA Times/UC survey finds him attracting 18 percent support, with Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) close behind at 17 percent. Following are Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and Lee, who post 14 and nine percent, respectively. The Lee poll found a 27-24-21-11 percent division in the same order but with Early posting a larger margin.

Texas: First 2024 Senate Poll Released — Building upon Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Dallas) US Senate announcement, the University of Texas at Tyler’s recent poll (May 10-21; 1,413 registered Texas voters; live interview & online) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading his probable general election opponent, 42-37 percent. If Texas polling history remains constant, in 2024 we can expect relatively close ballot tests reported throughout this campaign between the two-term incumbent and Rep. Allred, with Sen. Cruz in the end winning with a larger margin than forecast.

House

AZ-6: Contested Dem Primary — The 2022 battle for Arizona’s southeastern politically marginal 6th Congressional District saw Republican Juan Ciscomani defeating then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a tight 50.7 – 49.3 percent margin. Engel is returning for a re-match, but she will not have a clean primary.

Already, two Democrats have announced their candidacies, one just this week. Previously, former local school board member Vieri Tenuta declared for the seat. Now, business consultant and non-profit organization executive Jack O’Donnell has also entered the Democratic primary. The nature of the district suggests another close general election battle, but the contested August primary will likely help Rep. Ciscomani better position himself for the November election.

DE-AL: Preliminary Moves Being Made — Though at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) has yet to say she will run to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D), already we see four state legislators beginning to position themselves to run for what they believe will be an open US House seat. State Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend (D-Newark), Senate Majority Whip Elizabeth Lockman (D-Wilmington), senator and former Obama White House aide Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington), and state Rep. Kerri Evelyn Harris (D-Dover) are all considered potential federal candidates.

Trump/DeSantis vs. Biden; Lake Likely to Enter Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies; Whitmer’s Sister Declares Candidacy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 25, 2023

President

WSJ Poll: Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General — We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden.

The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; April 11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Trump holding a 51-38 percent lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis. Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Trump leads with 48 percent as compared to the Florida governor’s 24 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only five percent support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers two percent. This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38 percent.

In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Joe Biden 48-45 percent. If Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45 percent edge.

Senate

Former Arizona newscaster Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy — Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as governor. Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.

Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate. This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party. The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status.

California: Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies — According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign. Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election. Suffering from shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session. This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment. At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

House

NY-17: Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress — Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County-anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat. Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility.

With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

Gallego Ahead in Arizona; Montana Senate Race Update; Republican Garcia Draws Opponent in Calif.; First Major Candidate Announces in R.I.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 13, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Gallego Leads & Sinema Gains in New Poll — With no Republican as of yet announcing for the 2024 Arizona Senate race, frequent Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest Senate poll. The survey (Jan. 31-Feb. 9; 1,000 registered Arizona voters) gives US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the lead under all configurations. The pollster continues to add former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Republican candidate mix even though he has repeatedly said that he is not running. Therefore, we will eliminate covering polling results that include him.

Rep. Gallego polls between 31 and 34 percent in scenarios that include former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, ex-US Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former governor candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. The Republicans post scores between 24 and 26 percent. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, improves her standing from previous polling. She would take between 19 and 22 percent under the various scenarios.

With a late primary in August 2024, much will happen to develop the ultimate candidate lineup. This poll, as do others, suggest a wide-open three-way race where either Gallego, a Republican, or Sinema ultimately could eventually win. Arizona will once again be at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads in Primary & General — The OnMessage Republican polling firm released the results of their latest Montana US Senate poll (Feb. 18-21; 600 likely Montana voters with an over-sample of 100 Republicans for GOP primary questions; live interview) and the results provide good news across the board for US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive).

Though no one has announced a Senate bid against three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D), OnMessage tested a hypothetical Republican primary consisting of Reps. Rosendale and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) along with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. For this question, Rep. Rosendale posted a 36-26-6 percent lead over Zinke and Stapleton. Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, was not tested.

In the general election, in a reversal of a previous Political Company survey result, OnMessage finds Rep. Rosendale topping Sen. Tester, 46-41 percent. There is no report as to whether the pollsters tested the other candidates singularly against Sen. Tester.

House

CA-27: Rep. Garcia Draws New Opponent — GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections in a seat that favors the Democrats against former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), but he’s almost certain to see a new challenger in 2024.

Franky Carrillo (D) was falsely imprisoned for 22 years, convicted for a murder later proven he did not commit and was awarded $11 million in compensation after winning a lawsuit against the state of California. Since then, Carrillo has been appointed as a Los Angeles County Probation Oversight commissioner. Last week, he announced that he will run for the US House next year.

It’s clear that the Democrats must change the paradigm against Rep. Garcia, and it remains to be seen if Carrillo is the type of candidate who can alter the partisan flow of this northern Los Angeles County CD against an incumbent who has proven he can draw crossover votes.

RI-1: First Major Candidate Announces — Last week, Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he is resigning his seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. While the list of potential Democratic candidates who might declare for the impending special election to be scheduled later this year is long, the first major contender just announced her plans late last week. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), the former president of the Providence City Council, formally declared her congressional candidacy.

The real political battle for this seat will be fought in the Democratic primary. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, it is a foregone conclusion that Rep. Cicilline’s eventual successor will be a Democrat. Expect a crowded field and a plurality primary victory that will lead to an easy Democratic special general election win.

New Arizona Senate Candidate?; Actor Considers Running in MI; Potential Opposition to Romney; Oregon Counties to Secede?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023

Senate

Arizona state Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope (R-Coolidge)

Arizona: New Republican Potential Candidate Coming Forward — Based upon recent statements from Arizona state Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope (R-Coolidge), it appears we could see a new Republican in the US Senate arena. Shope is indicating that he is seriously considering entering the statewide field. Former gubernatorial nominee and ex-television news anchor Kari Lake is also gearing up for a Senate run.

With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema likely running as an Independent and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) already well on his way to sewing up the Democratic nomination, a very interesting three-way race is headed our way next year.

Michigan: Actor Considers Senate Race — Hill Harper (D), the actor who plays the role of Dr. Marcus Andrews on ABC’s “The Good Doctor” program, indicates that he is testing the waters for his own run in what will be the open Michigan Senate seat next year. Despite many elected officials expressing interest, only State Board of Education Member Nikki Snyder (R) has officially announced her candidacy.

It was thought that US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) would officially launch a Senate effort just after incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) publicly stated that she would not seek re-election to a fifth term in 2024. So far, however, the congresswoman has yet to make such a declaration. However, it is still expected that she will enter the race.

Utah: Former Congressman, Current Commentator Mentioned for Senate — With Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) now saying he won’t decide until this summer about whether to seek a second full six-year term representing the Beehive State, another name is being floated as a potential candidate. Former US Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), who resigned from the House in the middle of his fifth term, and who was originally elected to the state’s 3rd Congressional District in 2008, is considering running. He left Congress to join Fox News as an on-air contributor, where he remains today.

While not denying that he may be seriously looking at challenging Sen. Romney in the 2024 GOP primary, Chaffetz, like Sen. Romney, says he will wait even longer before making a final decision about running. Attorney General Sean Reyes is a potential GOP challenger to Sen. Romney, along with several other prominent Utah Republicans.

States

Oregon: One More County to Vote About Joining Idaho — Since 2020, a total of 11 eastern Oregon counties have voted to explore ways for their geographic region to split from the state and join neighboring Idaho; now another, northeastern Wallowa County, has qualified an advisory ballot proposition on that for the next election.

The project is called the Greater Idaho Movement. The organizers of this movement say that although they don’t have any realistic possibility of seeing the voting counties break from Oregon and join Idaho (since both the Oregon legislature and Congress would have to approve), the votes will show the current liberal Beaver State political structure that more attention must be given to the needs of the voters in the conservative eastern Oregon rural communities.

Michigan Moves Primary; New Polling Results For Arizona Senate Race; Tillis Out in NC Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 3, 2023

President

Michigan: State House Passes Bill to Move Primary — The Michigan House of Representatives approved a measure to move the state’s primary to the fourth Tuesday in February, just ahead of the Super Tuesday voting primaries. Michigan was one of the states that President Biden outlined in his suggested primary schedule changes. Dropping Iowa and adding Georgia along with the Wolverine State and keeping South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada as the five states with permission to vote before Super Tuesday recaps the president’s recommendations.

The Michigan Senate has already approved the primary election measure, which means the bill will head to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) for her signature. Republicans opposed the legislation because moving the primary would cause them to violate the GOP party rules that only allow Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina to vote early. Such penalties could mean the forfeiting of 90 percent of a state’s delegate votes.

Expect the parties and states to come to a scheduling agreement in the near future. The first votes are scheduled for this time next year.

Senate

Arizona: New Three-Way Polling — The Normington Petts survey research firm conducted a poll (Jan. 18-23; 80 registered Arizona voters) for three progressive left Arizona organizations testing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) opposite Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and both 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who has not closed the door on running for the Senate, and former Gov. Doug Ducey (R), who says a Senate race is not under his consideration.

While the poll sponsors were highlighting Gallego’s performance, it is Sinema’s standing that has greatly improved since previous polls were made public. In the configuration with Gallego and Lake, Sen. Sinema, while still running in third place, improves her standing to 24 percent as opposed to 14 and 13 percent respectively in December and early January polls from Public Policy Polling and Blueprint Polling. Rep. Gallego and Lake were tied at 36 percent apiece.

When Normington Petts tested Sen. Sinema with Rep. Gallego and former Gov. Ducey, the congressman held a 37-31-27 percent advantage over the GOP ex-state chief executive and Sen. Sinema, respectively. The progression suggests that Sen. Sinema is coming into a competitive position as the prospective candidates begin to prepare for a three-way race.

Michigan: Ex-Congressman Contemplates Senate Race — Former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who chaired the House Intelligence Committee during part of his seven-term congressional career, confirms that he is considering making a return to elective politics with a potential US Senate run. The move would give the Republicans a strong contender in a state that routinely produces close statewide elections. Before his election to the US House, Rogers served six years in the Michigan state Senate. He has been in the private sector and the media since his retirement from Congress.

Governor

North Carolina: Sen. Tillis Out of Gov Race — Despite his name being added to ballot test questions from some pollsters surveying the impending open North Carolina governor’s race, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) made the definitive statement yesterday that he will not be a candidate for the state’s chief executive post. Sen. Tillis did say, however, that he expects a contested GOP primary to evolve. At this point, the leading Republican candidate appears to be Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is the lone major announced contender in his party.