Tag Archives: Georgia

Perdue Changes Course in Georgia

By Jim Ellis

Former Georgia Sen. David Perdue (R)

Feb. 25, 2021 — Just when former Sen. David Perdue (R) appeared prepared to challenge new Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in the 2022 general election, he abruptly reversed course and announced Tuesday that he will not run. Perdue had filed a 2022 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, but such action does not make one an official candidate.

Without Perdue in the 2022 race, the fight for the Republican nomination becomes a free-for-all. Earlier in the week former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), who lost her Jan. 5 Senate runoff election, as did Sen. Perdue, confirmed that she is considering running in 2022 in addition to forming a grassroots organization with the goal of increasing right-of-center voter registration in Georgia.

Former Rep. Doug Collins (R), who lost in the 2020 special Senate election, placing behind Sens. Warnock and Loeffler in the crowded jungle primary, also said that he is considering a new run for the Senate, or even a potential Republican nomination challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp.

Yesterday, Atlanta Journal Constitution political reporter Greg Bluestein listed several more Republicans who apparently have not yet ruled out a Senate bid next year. They are: Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, Attorney General Chris Carr, Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, and former US Ambassador to Luxembourg Randy Evans.

In the Nov. 3 special jungle primary, Rev. Warnock captured the highest vote total, 1,617,035 of 4,914,361 ballots cast from within a field of 20 candidates. Sen. Loeffler placed second, 292,760 votes ahead of third place finisher Collins.

The fact that Loeffler finished substantially ahead of Collins will be one argument she will likely use to convince base voters that she is most able to defeat Sen. Warnock this time around. Collins, conversely, will contend that a Republican primary is very different than a special election in a regular voting schedule, thus suggesting that he is better positioned to win a primary nomination and develop a stronger base from which to oppose Sen. Warnock.

With Georgia changing politically, any Republican nominee is going to have a difficult time unseating Sen. Warnock but doing so is certainly within the realm of possibility. In the Jan. 5 runoff, while both Loeffler and Perdue were losing to their respective Democratic opponents, a third race was also on the ballot.

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Perdue Making Moves in Georgia

By Jim Ellis

Former Georgia Sen. David Perdue (R)

Feb. 19, 2021 — Defeated Georgia Sen. David Perdue (R) is taking the first steps toward making a quick political comeback. This week he filed a new 2022 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission to explore his prospects against new Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who will be standing for a full six-year term after winning the 2020 special election. Perdue says he will make a final decision about launching his candidacy next month.

One of the former senator’s arguments to support a new campaign is that he “won” the November general election, which, he points out, drew a record high turnout.

Using the term “won” might be a stretch because we obviously know that Georgia has a runoff system even for the general, which must be satisfied to actually win, but he did finish 88,098 votes ahead of Jon Ossoff in the first election in which 4,952,175 people cast ballots. This total, however, was only enough for 49.73 percent of the vote, a scant 0.27 percent from clinching the seat.

The Jan. 5 runoff turned out differently, as these types of elections often do when an incumbent fails to achieve majority support in the first vote. That is, the second-place finisher frequently wins.

In January, now that the final votes are tabulated and certified, Ossoff produced a 54,944-vote edge from a participation factor of 4,484,902 voters, meaning 467,273 fewer individuals took part in the runoff election. This drop-off rate of only 9.4 percent, however, is the lowest ever for this type of a secondary electoral contest. The typical participation rate falls by at least one-third.

Therefore, Perdue’s argument that he “won” the record turnout election is less credible when understanding that the runoff had a small drop-off rate, and its turnout as part of the super-charged 2020 election cycle is well beyond a standard midterm participation factor.

Additionally, while a Perdue 2022 entry might dissuade other potential Republican nomination contenders such as former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who campaigned closely with Perdue as part of their Republican team effort, it apparently isn’t yet stopping at least one other potential rival.

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More Redistricting Delays – Part I

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 17, 2021 — The Census Bureau announced just before the Presidents’ Day holiday break that there will be yet another long delay in transmitting the census data to the states. Without the new numbers, redistricting becomes unachievable.

The new target date is Sept. 30, postponed from their first postponement date of July 30. At this point, the postponed apportionment release date remains April 30, long after the statutory deadline of Jan. 1. Apportionment is the first critical step in the redistricting process since this informs the states how many congressional seats they will be awarded for the current decade.

The late September target (and there’s no guarantee even this date will be met) will make it difficult for many states to finish their redistricting on time, and could force the process into the courts if state legislatures are unable to convene or meet a legislative calendar in terms of allowing public input. Even now, at least several states will have to enact emergency legislation to change deadlines to avoid violating pre-existing legal redistricting deadlines.

The delays have already changed the political situation in New Jersey and Virginia. With both states having odd-numbered year state legislative elections, the two are always the first to receive their new census data. In both states, legislative elections will now proceed under the 2011 maps with previously enacted amendments. When the lines are eventually completed, it is possible that new elections, possibly for 2022, will be ordered in Virginia. New Jersey voters passed a referendum in November that allows redistricting to occur before the 2023 state legislative elections.

Another problem could be lawsuits filed against the eventual apportionment. Apparently, the principal problem for the delays is exactly which people to count and where they are placed. College students, for example, are typically counted at the university campus on which they reside. Now, however, so many are not attending in-person classes. Therefore, arguments are ongoing as to where this group should be counted, either at school or back at their primary residence.

Additionally, one of President Biden’s new executive orders reversed Trump Administration policies about whether or not to count non-citizens. This change of direction has also created further delays.

Based upon these controversies, and others, it is probable that at least one potential losing state – apparently Alabama is on the cusp of losing a seat but may not depending upon the counting criteria – could sue over the apportionment conclusion meaning even further delays as various potential lawsuits wind their way through the judicial process toward final determination. All of this could conceivably mean redistricting is postponed until the 2024 election cycle.

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Early House Outlook – Part IV

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 24, 2021 — Concluding our electoral US House preview, today we look at the final dozen states in the country’s southern region.

• Alabama – 7 Seats (1D – 6R)

Alabama is on the cusp of losing one of its seven seats in reapportionment. Sources suggest the final numbers are very close and the state may sue over how the figures are tabulated should apportionment take away one of the Republican seats. The Democrats have only one CD in the state, which is a majority minority seat (Rep. Terri Sewell-D) that is a certainty to remain as part of the delegation.

Should Alabama lose a seat in reapportionment, the state’s southeastern region, most particularly the Montgomery anchored 2nd District, would probably the most affected since this is the least populated area of the seven CDs.

• Delaware – 1 Seat (1D)

The home of new President Joe Biden was once a relatively conservative state, but no longer. Delaware is growing but won’t come anywhere near gaining a second seat. Therefore, three-term Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) will have an easy electoral ride for the foreseeable future.

• Florida – 27 Seats (11D – 16R)

The Sunshine State is one of two entities perched to gain multiple new districts. Florida is projected to add two seats, which should give the GOP map drawers the opportunity of protecting the newly won South Florida District 26 (Rep. Carlos Gimenez) and 27 (Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar) while maximizing the Republican compilation of Florida seats. Winning the aforementioned Miami-anchored CDs might result in conceding one of the new seats to the Democrats, however, in order to off-load a significant portion of their left-of-center voters, which would make both seats more Republican.

Holding the governor’s office, both houses of the legislature, and now a majority on the state Supreme Court will allow the GOP to become the big winner in redistricting. The fact that 25 of the 27 districts are over the estimated per district population projection of approximately 740,000 residents provides statistical evidence for expanding the delegation.

Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Kissimmee) 9th District is the most over-populated seat with more than 931,000 people. Only Reps. Neal Dunn’s (R-Panama City) and Charlie Crist’s (D-St. Petersburg) seats are slightly below the projected population target. Twelve of the current 27 districts now hold more than 800,000 constituents. Expect the new seats to be added in South Florida, most likely toward the Gulf Coast side of the peninsula, and in the Orlando area.

• Georgia – 14 Seats (6D – 8R)

Though Republicans will control the redistricting pen as a result of holding both the legislature and governor’s office, the party map drawers will be hard-pressed to construct a map that allows their members to dominate the delegation as they did 10 years ago. Gaining a seat in 2010 reapportionment, the GOP began the decade with a 10-4 advantage in the House delegation only to see two Atlanta suburban seats slip away as a result of demographic and political changes in the metropolitan area.

Georgia is expected to remain constant in this reapportionment with their 14 seats. The GOP will attempt to make at least one of the seats they lost, District 6 (Rep. Lucy McBath) or District 7 (Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux) more Republican and thus give themselves a chance to re-claim a seat for the coming decade.

Expect a move to make one of these two seats, probably District 6, more Democratic in order to make District 7 more Republican especially since the latter CD is the most over-populated seat in the state with more than 844,000 residents and will have to shed close to 90,000 individuals to other districts.
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Comparing 2020 & 2016

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 15, 2021 — Now that the presidential numbers are final and certified in all 50 states, we can begin to draw comparisons between the two Trump election years and see the states where movement was most significant.

The 2020 election results show interesting parallels in the race between President Donald Trump and President-Elect Joe Biden and the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

A total of 158,507,118 people are recorded as voting in the 2020 election, an all-time record. In 2016, by comparison, 136,792,535 individuals cast ballots. The current total represents an increase of 15.9 percent. Even those forecasting a turnout of just above 155 million, which seemed outlandish at the time, were low as the 2020 aggregate final vote widely cleared all previous electoral participation records.

As you will see from the following charts, most states performed similarly in 2020 as they did in 2016. In the preponderance of places, both President Trump and President-Elect Joe Biden posted better percentages in 2020, though Trump recorded slightly lower 2020 percentages in 13 states as compared to Biden falling below 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in only one (Mississippi).

The change factors are largely due to lesser independent and minor party candidates on the 2020 ballot as opposed to 2016 and an increase in first-time voters.

Nationally, as determined in all 50 states, President Trump’s numbers increased an average of one percentage point per state, while Biden saw a mean average four percent jump over Clinton’s standing.

The first charts depict President Trump’s state totals in alphabetical order. To reiterate, his per state average gain was 1.0 percent. The second chart shows the states in order of the largest gains.

The succeeding Democratic charts illustrate Biden’s increased performance over that of Clinton. Though his national per state victory margin over President Trump was low in comparison to 2016 – changing Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and the 2nd District of Nebraska would have changed the national outcome and the aggregate vote margin was only 65,009 – his standing in every state was significantly better than hers. The Biden average per state gain was 4.0 percent.

REPUBLICAN

Alphabetical

STATE	2016 R	2020 R	AVG GAIN
Alabama	62.1%	62.3%	0.2%
Alaska	51.3%	52.8%	1.5%
Arizona	48.7%	49.1%	0.4%
Arkansas	60.6%	62.4%	1.8%
California	31.6%	34.3%	2.7%
Colorado	43.2%	41.9%	-1.3%
Connecticut	40.9%	39.2%	-1.7%
Delaware	41.7%	39.8%	-1.9%
Florida	49.0%	51.2%	2.2%
Georgia	50.8%	49.2%	-1.6%
Hawaii	29.4%	33.9%	4.5%
Idaho	59.3%	63.8%	4.5%
Illinois	38.8%	40.6%	1.8%
Indiana	56.9%	57.0%	0.1%
Iowa	51.2%	52.8%	1.6%
Kansas	56.6%	56.2%	-0.4%
Kentucky	62.5%	62.1%	-0.4%
Louisiana	58.1%	58.5%	0.4%
Maine	43.5%	43.6%	0.1%
Maryland	33.9%	32.2%	-1.7%
Massachusetts	32.3%	39.1%	6.8%
Michigan	47.6%	47.8%	0.2%
Minnesota	44.9%	45.3%	0.4%
Mississippi	57.9%	41.1%	-0.3%
Missouri	56.8%	56.8%	0.0%
Montana	56.2%	56.9%	0.7%
Nebraska	58.7%	58.2%	-0.5%
Nevada	45.5%	47.8%	2.3%
New Hampshire	46.5%	45.4%	-1.1%
New Jersey	41.4%	41.4%	0.0%
New Mexico	40.0%	43.5%	3.5%
New York	36.1%	37.5%	1.4%
North Carolina	49.8%	49.9%	0.1%
North Dakota	65.1%	31.8%	2.1%
Ohio	51.7%	53.3%	1.6%
Oklahoma	65.3%	65.4%	0.1%
Oregon	40.4%	56.5%	0.7%
Pennsylvania	48.6%	48.8%	0.2%
Rhode Island	38.9%	38.6%	-0.3%
South Carolina	54.9%	55.1%	0.2%
South Dakota	61.5%	61.8%	0.3%
Tennessee	60.7%	60.7%	0.0%
Texas	53.2%	52.1%	-1.1%
Utah	45.5%	58.1%	12.6%
Vermont	29.8%	30.9%	1.1%
Virginia	44.4%	44.0%	-0.4%
Washington	36.8%	38.8%	2.0%
West Virginia	68.6%	68.7%	0.1%
Wisconsin	47.2%	48.8%	1.6%
Wyoming	67.4%	69.5%	2.1%

Performance Increase

STATE	2016 R	2020 R	AVG GAIN
Utah	45.5%	58.1%	12.6%
Massachusetts	32.3%	39.1%	6.8%
Hawaii	29.4%	33.9%	4.5%
Idaho	59.3%	63.8%	4.5%
New Mexico	40.0%	43.5%	3.5%
California	31.6%	34.3%	2.7%
Nevada	45.5%	47.8%	2.3%
Florida	49.0%	51.2%	2.2%
North Dakota	65.1%	31.8%	2.1%
Wyoming	67.4%	69.5%	2.1%
Washington	36.8%	38.8%	2.0%
Arkansas	60.6%	62.4%	1.8%
Illinois	38.8%	40.6%	1.8%
Iowa	51.2%	52.8%	1.6%
Ohio	51.7%	53.3%	1.6%
Wisconsin	47.2%	48.8%	1.6%
Alaska	51.3%	52.8%	1.5%
New York	36.1%	37.5%	1.4%
Vermont	29.8%	30.9%	1.1%
Oregon	40.4%	56.5%	0.7%
Montana	56.2%	56.9%	0.7%
Arizona	48.7%	49.1%	0.4%
Louisiana	58.1%	58.5%	0.4%
Minnesota	44.9%	45.3%	0.4%
South Dakota	61.5%	61.8%	0.3%
Alabama	62.1%	62.3%	0.2%
Michigan	47.6%	47.8%	0.2%
Pennsylvania	48.6%	48.8%	0.2%
South Carolina	54.9%	55.1%	0.2%
Indiana	56.9%	57.0%	0.1%
Maine	43.5%	43.6%	0.1%
North Carolina	49.8%	49.9%	0.1%
Oklahoma	65.3%	65.4%	0.1%
West Virginia	68.6%	68.7%	0.1%
Missouri	56.8%	56.8%	0.0%
New Jersey	41.4%	41.4%	0.0%
Tennessee	60.7%	60.7%	0.0%
Mississippi	57.9%	41.1%	-0.3%
Rhode Island	38.9%	38.6%	-0.3%
Kansas	56.6%	56.2%	-0.4%
Kentucky	62.5%	62.1%	-0.4%
Virginia	44.4%	44.0%	-0.4%
Nebraska	58.7%	58.2%	-0.5%
New Hampshire	46.5%	45.4%	-1.1%
Texas	53.2%	52.1%	-1.1%
Colorado	43.2%	41.9%	-1.3%
Georgia	50.8%	49.2%	-1.6%
Connecticut	40.9%	39.2%	-1.7%
Maryland	33.9%	32.2%	-1.7%
Delaware	41.7%	39.8%	-1.9%

DEMOCRAT

Alphabetical

STATE	2016 D	2020 D	AVG GAIN
Alabama	34.4%	36.6%	2.2%
Alaska	36.5%	42.8%	6.3%
Arizona	45.1%	49.4%	4.3%
Arkansas	33.6%	34.8%	1.2%
California	61.7%	63.5%	1.8%
Colorado	48.2%	55.4%	7.2%
Connecticut	54.6%	59.2%	4.6%
Delaware	53.1%	58.7%	5.6%
Florida	47.8%	47.9%	0.1%
Georgia	45.6%	49.5%	3.9%
Hawaii	61.0%	63.1%	2.1%
Idaho	27.5%	33.1%	5.6%
Illinois	55.8%	57.5%	1.7%
Indiana	37.8%	41.0%	3.2%
Iowa	41.7%	3.2%	3.0%
Kansas	36.0%	41.6%	5.6%
Kentucky	32.7%	36.1%	3.4%
Louisiana	38.4%	39.8%	1.4%
Maine	46.4%	52.5%	6.1%
Maryland	60.3%	65.4%	5.1%
Massachusetts	59.0%	65.1%	6.1%
Michigan	47.3%	50.6%	3.3%
Minnesota	46.4%	52.4%	6.0%
Mississippi	57.6%	40.1%	-1.0%
Missouri	38.1%	41.4%	3.3%
Montana	35.7%	40.6%	4.9%
Nebraska	33.7%	39.2%	5.5%
Nevada	47.9%	50.1%	2.2%
New Hampshire	46.8%	52.7%	5.9%
New Jersey	55.5%	57.3%	1.8%
New Mexico	48.3%	54.3%	6.0%
New York	58.4%	60.4%	2.0%
North Carolina	46.2%	48.6%	2.4%
North Dakota	63.0%	27.2%	4.6%
Ohio	43.6%	45.2%	1.6%
Oklahoma	28.9%	32.3%	3.4%
Oregon	39.1%	50.1%	6.4%
Pennsylvania	47.8%	50.0%	2.2%
Rhode Island	54.4%	59.4%	5.0%
South Carolina	40.7%	43.4%	2.7%
South Dakota	31.7%	35.6%	3.9%
Tennessee	34.7%	37.5%	2.8%
Texas	43.2%	46.5%	3.3%
Utah	27.5%	37.7%	10.2%
Vermont	55.7%	65.5%	9.8%
Virginia	49.7%	54.1%	4.4%
Washington	52.5%	58.0%	5.5%
West Virginia	26.5%	29.7%	3.2%
Wisconsin	46.5%	49.4%	2.9%
Wyoming	21.6%	26.4%	4.8%

Performance Increase

STATE	2016 D	2020 D	AVG GAIN
Utah	27.5%	37.7%	10.2%
Vermont	55.7%	65.5%	9.8%
Colorado	48.2%	55.4%	7.2%
Oregon	39.1%	50.1%	6.4%
Alaska	36.5%	42.8%	6.3%
Massachusetts	59.0%	65.1%	6.1%
Maine	46.4%	52.5%	6.1%
New Mexico	48.3%	54.3%	6.0%
Minnesota	46.4%	52.4%	6.0%
New Hampshire	46.8%	52.7%	5.9%
Idaho	27.5%	33.1%	5.6%
Kansas	36.0%	41.6%	5.6%
Delaware	53.1%	58.7%	5.6%
Nebraska	33.7%	39.2%	5.5%
Washington	52.5%	58.0%	5.5%
Maryland	60.3%	65.4%	5.1%
Rhode Island	54.4%	59.4%	5.0%
Montana	35.7%	40.6%	4.9%
Wyoming	21.6%	26.4%	4.8%
North Dakota	63.0%	27.2%	4.6%
Connecticut	54.6%	59.2%	4.6%
Virginia	49.7%	54.1%	4.4%
Arizona	45.1%	49.4%	4.3%
Georgia	45.6%	49.5%	3.9%
South Dakota	31.7%	35.6%	3.9%
Oklahoma	28.9%	32.3%	3.4%
Kentucky	32.7%	36.1%	3.4%
Michigan	47.3%	50.6%	3.3%
Texas	43.2%	46.5%	3.3%
Missouri	38.1%	41.4%	3.3%
Indiana	37.8%	41.0%	3.2%
West Virginia	26.5%	29.7%	3.2%
Iowa	41.7%	44.7%	3.0%
Wisconsin	46.5%	49.4%	2.9%
Tennessee	34.7%	37.5%	2.8%
South Carolina	40.7%	43.4%	2.7%
North Carolina	46.2%	48.6%	2.4%
Alabama	34.4%	36.6%	2.2%
Nevada	47.9%	50.1%	2.2%
Pennsylvania	47.8%	50.0%	2.2%
Hawaii	61.0%	63.1%	2.1%
New York	58.4%	60.4%	2.0%
California	61.7%	63.5%	1.8%
New Jersey	55.5%	57.3%	1.8%
Illinois	55.8%	57.5%	1.7%
Ohio	43.6%	45.2%	1.6%
Louisiana	38.4%	39.8%	1.4%
Arkansas	33.6%	34.8%	1.2%
Florida	47.8%	47.9%	0.1%
Mississippi	57.6%	40.1%	-1.0%

2022 Senate Outlook

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 13, 2021 — Now that we know Democrats will have a bare 50-50 majority with the vice president breaking the tie, it’s an appropriate time to look ahead to the next election in order to see which party might have the initial advantage.

In an ironic bad news/good news scenario for Republicans, because the party lost the Georgia runoff elections and their majority, the GOP now has further winnable 2022 targets in order to attempt to regain the chamber advantage.

In the new election cycle, a total of 34 Senate seats will be on the ballot. Adding the 2020 final results, we see that 20 Republicans will be defending theirs seats in 2022 as compared with 14 Democrats. The ’22 cycle also includes two reruns from 2020 as both Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA), winners of special elections, will again be on the ballot in order to secure respective six-year terms.

Reviewing political voting trends for the past six years in each of these states reveals that now the Democrats actually have more senators seeking re-election (4-3) than Republicans where the four-year major statewide vote average is under 50 percent.

Averaging five data points: the partisan vote percent from the individual senator’s most recent election, the two presidential campaigns (2020 and 2016), the state’s other Senate election, and the most recent gubernatorial vote provides us a partisan mean average vote from the immediate past four-year period.

Doing so finds that Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly (AZ), Maggie Hassan (NH), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), and Raphael Warnock (GA) see their party’s cumulative four-year average dropping under 50 percent.

Republicans have three such Senate situations. Sens. Pat Toomey (PA), Ron Johnson (WI), and Richard Burr (NC) all represent states where their party’s average vote total drops under the majority mark for the tested period. Already, Sens. Toomey and Burr have announced they will not seek re-election, leaving at least two of the Republicans’ three most vulnerable seats in an open situation.

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Definitive Georgia Data

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 12, 2021 — Now that the 159 county returns have been published for the Georgia Senate runoffs and a third more obscure statewide Public Service Commission race, we can see just why the Democrats won the two Senate contests.

The fact that Republican Public Service Commissioner Lauren McDonald was re-elected with the same type of vote margin that saw both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win allows us to see just where the federal Republican statewide vote was deficient.

As we know, all of these contests were extremely tight. Rev. Warnock had the strongest victory margin among the three, but even his was only 51-49 percent. The final Ossoff victory spread was 50.6 – 49.4 percent, and McDonald, the lone Republican victor, won in the same percentage neighborhood, 50.4 – 49.6 percent.

Obviously, there is little difference among these races and, as we covered previously, the county returns throughout the state show a strong similarity in the Senate totals, thus proving the voters perceived the candidates as being a team. McDonald’s victory, however, does show at least some ticket-splitting tendency was present as enough voters returned to the Republican column to allow him to win re-election.

The drop-off turnout percentage from the general election to these Senate runoffs is the lowest in Georgia political history. The final runoff participation figure recorded a high of 4,474,447 voters, or 90.3 percent of the number voting in the regular Senate elections. Typically, secondary election turnout drops by about one-third. With so much on the line in these runoffs, however, the voters responded in kind.

The key to the election, however, appears to be the percentage turnout in the counties. Democrats maximized their strength to a greater degree, which proved to be the key difference in the Senate runoff outcomes.

Across the board, McDonald ran ahead of the Senate Republicans in virtually every county, but generally only exceeded the other two statewide GOP candidates by less than a percentage point. This slight increased vote spread, however, was enough to turn close losses into a tight victory for the GOP state official.

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