Tag Archives: Term Limits

No Need for Term Limits?

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Enjoy your holiday; we’ll be back after the weekend.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024

For at least two decades, groups of activists have been arguing for federal term limits to be applied to the US Senate and House of Representatives, just as they are in many state legislatures; but, are they needed in today’s political climate?

For virtually the entire last decade on congressional commencement day, a majority of the House members had served three full terms or less. The same will be the case in the new 119th House being sworn into office on Jan. 3.

At this point in looking at the incoming House of Representatives, 239 members will have served three full terms or less when the oath of office is administered.

Examining the entire incoming body as a whole and even counting the two uncalled races in California, the mean average length of individual service for the 434 members is 10.1 years, and the median average is seven years. (The 434 number includes Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) because they will still be members at the time of commencement even though they will be soon leaving for Trump Administration posts, but does not include ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) who has resigned.)

These statistics are typically within the range that term limits advocates suggest. Yet, the incoming 119th Congress, as have the bodies since the 112th, have achieved similar seniority levels, at least for the majority within the House, without imposing artificial limits on all members.

Turning to the Senate, the new body will feature incumbents who have served slightly over two terms, meaning 12.4 years to be exact. Of course, senators have six-year terms as opposed to the House members, who must run every two years. The median average is exactly two terms, which is again the number that most term limits activists claim is appropriate for a senator.

The longest serving senator, or “Dean,” is Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who was first elected in 1980. Following him is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with 40 years, and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) with 32 years of service. In the House, the two longest serving members are Reps. Hal Rogers (R-KY) and Chris Smith (R-NJ). They, like Sen. Grassley, were first elected in 1980 and have 44 years of seniority. They are closely followed by former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). He was elected in a May 1981 special election.

A total of 13 senators have been members for at least 20 years, and just the aforementioned three for 30 years or longer. In the House, 54 members, or an almost identical 12.4 percent compared to the Senate’s 13 percent, have 20 years of service. A total of 19 representatives have 30 or more years of congressional experience, a fraction of the full body at just 4.4 percent.

Therefore, the prevailing wisdom that members of Congress stay decades in their positions causing the body to lack sufficient turnover appears disproved by the current statistics.

Since the two congressional chambers have a mix of fresh blood and experienced members some 235 years since formation, again alludes to the founding fathers’ wisdom in building the legislative system. It also appears that allowing the people’s votes to decide who serves in Congress as opposed to a bureaucratic procedure is likely a more reflective indicator of the country’s political leanings.

Nebraska’s Gov. Ricketts to Become Sen. Ricketts? Dead Heats in CA-21 & FL-27; Oklahoma Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022

Senate

Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R)

Nebraska: Gov. Ricketts Makes Succession Statement — Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) resignation, to occur once he is confirmed as the University of Florida’s new president, has spurred discussion as to who will be appointed as Nebraska’s replacement junior senator. Term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), who refused to comment about his interest in assuming the position when Sen. Sasse announced his future plans, uttered a clarifying comment over the weekend.

Under Nebraska state law, a governor has 45 days to replace a resigning senator after the seat becomes officially vacant. Sen. Sasse indicated he will resign before the end of the year. Therefore, it is possible that Gov. Ricketts could make the appointment as one of his last official acts, or the likely incoming chief executive, University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen (R), would do so as one of his first duties.

Ricketts now indicates if he develops an interest in receiving the appointment, he will let the new governor choose the new senator and not appoint himself. In a crowded 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, Gov. Ricketts endorsement of Pillen helped him win the nomination, so the early tea leaves are suggesting that the outgoing governor could be headed to the Senate.

New Hampshire: Dollars Changing Direction — Earlier, we speculated upon the National Republican Senatorial Committee eventually making the move to pull their media reservation dollars from New Hampshire and begin moving the money to places where the GOP candidate looks to be in better victory position — namely Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. With the NRSC’s canceling its $2.6 million budget for the Boston market, as reported by the Adminpact and Daily Kos Elections organizations, the move has been made.

This, however, does not mean the Republican sector is abandoning New Hampshire, especially since polling still shows nominee Don Bolduc within high single-digits of Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). The Senate Leadership Fund and other outside right-of-center allies have reserved another $23 million in media time, so they are clearly not giving up on the NH Senate race even though the state and national party leadership overtly attempted to deny Bolduc his nomination.

House

CA-21: Rep. Costa in Dead Heat — The Trafalgar Group released the first post-primary survey of California’s new 21st Congressional District and the results reveal a surprising dead heat between Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) and businessman and former FBI agent Michael Maher (R). The poll (Sept. 30/Oct. 3; 515 likely CA-21 general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds the two candidates tied at 44 percent.

While the Central Valley region is showing signs of voting more conservatively than the rest of the Golden State electorate, the Republicans taking this district would be quite a stretch. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the new 21st, which includes downtown Fresno, as D+16 while the Dave’s Redistricting App crew calculates a 58.2D – 39.7R partisan lean. In the jungle primary, Rep. Costa unexpectedly received just 47.0 percent of the vote, but the Democratic aggregate total was 57.0 percent.

FL-27: Tight Race Prediction Coming True — In 2020, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) upset then-Rep. Donna Shalala (D) from a South Florida district that votes Republican to a greater degree than the voter registration figures might suggest. The GOP redistricting map drawers made the seat more favorable for Rep. Salazar, but it still rates as a D+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and 52.4D – 46.5R on the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan scale.

Therefore, it is not surprising to see a SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey (Oct. 3-5; 400 likely FL-27 general election voters; live interview) finding state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami) and Rep. Salazar in a virtual dead heat (Taddeo, 47-46 percent). The poll also found Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading former governor and congressman, Charlie Crist (D), 50-44 percent within the 27th District, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R) held a 48-47 percent edge over Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando).

Governor

Oklahoma: Shock Poll — Largely due to fallout from his Administration’s handling of some of the Covid 19 relief expenditures and attacks over his former business dealings, polling has suggested weakness for Gov. Kevin Stitt’s (R) re-election bid. Now we see a new survey that, for the first time, projects the governor falling behind his Democratic opponent, Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D).
The Sooner Poll, which surveys the Oklahoma electorate for various media outlets, released their new data (Oct. 3-6; 301 likely Oklahoma general election voters) and sees Hofmeister holding a surprising 47-44 percent lead. Though the Sooner Poll contains a very small sample and therefore a high error factor, it is becoming clear that this race will now draw further national attention.