Category Archives: States

New York Redistricting Action; NY-26 Leading Contender Out; Jackson Lee Faces Battle in TX-18; Two Former US Reps Run for California State Office

New York State Congressional Map / Click map or here to go to DavesRedistricting.org to see interactive version.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023

House

New York Redistricting: High Court Orders New Map — The high court ruling in Albany Tuesday could change the balance of power in the US House of Representatives. The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, on a 4-3 vote ordered that the congressional districts be redrawn for the 2024 election, a move the Democratic plaintiffs sought. The majority agreed with the argument that the court-drawn map for the 2022 elections should stand only for that one period since the voters changed the state Constitution in order to empower the Independent Redistricting Commission with map drawing responsibilities.

With the map being sent back to the commission members, the redistricting process begins again. The high court established a Feb. 28, 2024, deadline for map completion and legislative agreement. Under the constitutional amendment procedure, the legislature must approve the commission prepared map. The New York state primary is scheduled for June 25, and the candidate filing deadline will be set for a date in late March.

NY-26: Leading Contender Won’t Run — Ten-term New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) announced last month that he will resign in February to accept a position to lead a Buffalo non-profit organization. Replacing Rep. Higgins largely falls to one man, Erie County Democratic Party chairman Jeremy Zellner.

Under New York election procedure, the various county party chairmen in a congressional district decide who becomes the party nominee in the event of a vacancy. The chairman from counties with the largest population get more influence because the chair votes are weighted. Since 80 percent of the NY-26 constituency lies in Erie County and only 20 percent in Niagara County, the Erie County chairman, i.e., Zellner, will effectively appoint the next congressman. Since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18 and President Biden scored a 61-37 percent victory here in 2020, the eventual Democratic special election nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Higgins.

It appeared that Chairman Zellner was ready to nominate Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz (D) for the congressional post, but now such won’t happen. Poloncarz surprisingly announced that he will not run for Congress. This leaves, for now, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the only announced Democratic candidate. Five-term Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D), however, is also indicating interest in the congressional seat.

Mayor Brown is a former New York State Democratic Party chairman and an ex-state senator. He began his political career as a member of the Buffalo Common Council. Brown was actually defeated for renomination in 2021 but returned in the general election to win an unprecedented fifth term as a write-in candidate. Once Rep. Higgins resigns in February, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will call a special election to fill the balance of the current term. At that point, Chairman Zellner will make his decision.

TX-18: Primary Forced Against Rep. Jackson Lee — Updating the story of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) quickly turning around to file for re-election after losing the Houston mayor’s race on Saturday, the congresswoman will now face an active primary campaign for renomination. Former Houston City councilmember and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards says she will continue with her campaign and challenge the incumbent.

Edwards originally filed in case the 18th District seat would open because of a Jackson Lee victory in the mayor’s race. Instead, we will see a legitimate primary challenge in the March 5 Super Tuesday election. Three other Democrats also filed in anticipation of an open seat. Therefore, if none of the candidates reach the 50 percent plateau, a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on May 28.

Rep. Jackson Lee will be favored for re-election, but the Edwards challenge merits attention. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so the Republican primary becomes irrelevant.

States

California: Two Ex-Congressmen Running for Legislature — With the California candidate filing deadline closing last Friday, we see the unusual situation of two retired eight-term US congressmen now running for seats in the California legislature. Former Rep. Jerry McNerney (D), who retired from Congress at the beginning of this year, filed for the open Stockton-anchored state Senate seat, and George Radanovich (R), who left the House at the beginning of 2011, is running in an open Fresno area Assembly district.

For Radanovich, this will be his second try for the legislature. In the 2022 election, he ran for an open state Senate seat but failed to advance into the general election from the all-party jungle primary.

Key Ramaswamy Aide Switches to Trump; A Year-Long CA-25 Challenge; Mondaire Jones Poised to Return; Ranked Choice Voting in Montana?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 1, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen (Linkedin photo)

Vivek Ramaswamy: Key Aide Switches to Trump — It appears Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign may have already peaked. The campaign’s political director, Brian Swensen, is departing the Ramaswamy camp in order to join former President Donald Trump’s campaign as a strategic consultant. Along with the departures of former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former Congressman Will Hurd, and commentator Larry Elder, it appears the Republican presidential campaign’s winnowing process is well underway.

While former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie seem to be gaining slight momentum in at least some of the early states, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy either remain stagnant or are starting to descend. All indications maintain that the nomination still appears as Trump’s to lose.

House

CA-25: Rep. Ruiz Draws Potential Year-Long Democratic Challenger — As the Dec. 8 California candidate filing deadline draws near, we see political moves being made across the state. Indio Mayor Oscar Ortiz (D) on Wednesday announced a challenge to six-term US Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio). Ortiz’s entry into the race could mean that this competition will last all the way through the general election. Under California’s all-party top-two qualifying system, two members of the same party can advance into the general election.

California’s 25th District occupies the far southeastern sector of the state and touches the Mexican border. The seat includes Imperial County and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+12, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-25 as the 64th-most vulnerable Democratic seat in the party conference. Considering the announced Republican candidates appear weak, seeing a double-Democratic general election from this district is a distinct possibility.

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Gets Clear Shot — Former one-term Congressman Mondaire Jones (D), who left the Rockland/Westchester County district to unsuccessfully seek re-election in New York City, has returned to upstate New York to again run for Congress. It now appears that he will have a clear shot to again become the Democratic standard bearer.

Former local school board member Liz Gereghty (D), the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), announced Wednesday that she will leave the campaign trail. The Gereghty move all but assures that Jones will return to oppose GOP freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in one of the nation’s top challenger races.

NY-17 is a district that President Joe Biden carried by just over 10 percentage points. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-17 as the sixth-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Additionally, there is a good chance that a new redistricting map could make this seat even more Democratic.

States

Montana: State Supreme Court Rules Top Four Prop to Ballot — Overruling Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), the Montana state Supreme Court directed that the ballot proposition changing the state’s primary to an all-party top four system, similarly found in Alaska, will be placed before the voters next year. The system places all candidates for partisan office on one primary ballot, and the top four finishers, regardless of percentage attained or political party affiliation, will advance into the general election.

The problem with the Montana system is that Ranked Choice Voting, used in other places to determine the general election outcome if no candidate receives majority support, has already been made illegal for Montana elections via the legislature and governor. The purpose of the top four system, according to its proponents, was to create a system that produces a majority vote winner. At this point, it does not appear that the Montana top four system, even if adopted, will guarantee such an outcome.

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

Strong Democrat Showing in Virginia; Kentucky, Mississippi Governors Re-Elected; Ohio Voters Pass Two Major Initiatives; Houston, New York Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023

States

Virginia: Democrats Score Strong Night — Largely due to new court-imposed redistricting maps that radically changed the complexion of most districts, Virginia voters elected Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature.

Democrats will now have at least 21 of 40 seats in the Virginia state Senate and 52 of 100 in the House of Delegates. The party division margin differences yield no change in the Senate, while Democrats converted at least four seats in the House.

While it’s difficult to overlay an incumbent victory matrix across the Old Dominion legislative elections, it is not unusual to see a state that has become reliably Democratic over the past two decades to again vote for that party’s candidates in the 2023 elections. Therefore, the fact that the state’s favored party over the course of time again performed better is consistent with the incumbent voting pattern seen elsewhere.

Kentucky; Mississippi: Governors Re-Elected — Governors Andy Beshear (D) and Tate Reeves (R) in Kentucky and Mississippi, respectively, were re-elected to new four-year terms last night with similar five percentage point victory margins. Polling in the two states suggested a closer result for both incumbents, but each was favored to win.

In 2022, 55 of the 56 US senators and governors who ran for re-election won. In the US House elections, 98.1 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. Last night, we saw two more incumbent governors win again.

Ohio: Voters Pass Two Major Initiatives — Ohio voters last night, largely on a relatively consistent 55-45 percent majority, passed ballot measures adding abortion rights to the state constitution and legalizing the possession and use of marijuana. Moves are already underway in the legislature to begin determining the parameters for legal marijuana and how much the state will both tax it as a product and regulate its use.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Candidates Head to Runoff — State Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) advanced to a runoff election to determine the city’s next mayor. Whitmire placed first in the field of five candidates with 42.5 percent of the vote. Jackson Lee finished a relatively strong second at 35.7 percent. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will now schedule the runoff election for a date in early December. Polling finds Sen. Whitmire, the state’s second longest-serving state legislator, as the early leader for the secondary vote. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) was ineligible to seek a third term.

New York City: Exonerated Rapist and Bronx Republican Elected — Yusef Salaam, one of the “Central Park 5” who was falsely accused of raping a woman in Central Park back in 1989 and who was wrongly imprisoned for seven years before being exonerated, was elected last night to an open seat on the New York City Council. His election became a foregone conclusion when he won the Democratic primary back in late June.

In the Bronx, Republican Kristy Marmorato defeated incumbent Democratic Councilwoman Marjorie Velazquez to become the first member of the GOP to represent the Bronx on the New York City Council in 20 years. Marmorato unseated Councilwoman Velazquez by a 53-47 percent margin, to cap her stunning victory.

Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive; Republican Candidate in AL-2; Election Day Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

Cal Berkeley Poll: Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies (IGS) released their latest Golden State survey (Oct. 24-30; 6,342 registered California voters; 4,506 likely March 5th California primary voters; online) finds US Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) eclipsing US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) by a scant 17-16 percent plurality within the large all-party field. While the 17 percent support number represents no gain for Porter when compared to the IGS August study, it does show Schiff losing four percentage points within the same time period. Among self-identified Democratic respondents, the two are tied at 26 percent apiece.

Former professional baseball star Steve Garvey (R), has increased his position now that he is an announced candidate. He finished third in the IGS poll with 10 percent support. The race is close enough that if Garvey can coalesce the GOP support around his candidacy (a total of 21 percent chose a Republican candidate), he could secure a general election ballot position. Among Republican respondents, Garvey receives 27 percent support as compared to 13 and 12 percent for candidates James Bradley and Eric Early.

The Golden State, like Louisiana and Washington, employs an all-party jungle primary system. In California, all candidates are placed on the March 5 ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or primary percentage attained, qualify for the general election. Democrats are favored to hold the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) now holds, but whether a Republican qualifies for the general election or two Democrats advance from the primary remains to be seen.

House

AL-2: Republicans Field Candidate — Though the new court ordered map has drawn a new Montgomery-Mobile district designed to elect a black Democrat, Republicans now have a candidate to compete in a general election campaign. Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker announced over the weekend that he will file for the new congressional seat. Democrats already see seven announced candidates including two state senators, two state representatives, a Jefferson County Commissioner, and two minor candidates.

The candidate filing deadline is this week, on Nov. 10, so the official candidate field will soon be set. The Alabama statewide partisan primary is March 5. If no one secures majority support in the first election, a secondary runoff vote between the top two finishers will be held on April 2, 2024.

States

Election Day: Kentucky, Mississippi & Virginia — Today is election day around the country, and the contests drawing the most attention are occurring in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) runs for a second term while Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) opposes him. This contest has the potential to be close. The latest poll, from Emerson College (Oct. 30-Nov. 2; 1,000 likely Kentucky voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Cameron taking a lead for the first time in the race, with a 49-48 percent edge. A Cameron victory would be viewed as a major upset.

Another upset is possible in Mississippi. Public Service Commission Brandon Presley (D) is polling close to Gov. Tate Reeves (R) who, like Gov. Beshear in Kentucky, is on the ballot for a second term. The latest available survey comes from Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi voters; live interview & text) and the results find Gov. Reeves’ previous much larger lead dropping to just 46-45 percent. Polling was similar four years ago and Reeves considerably outperformed the polling. It remains to be seen if that pattern repeats itself tomorrow.

Virginia hosts critical state legislative elections with all 140 seats in the General Assembly up for election. Republicans hold a two-vote margin in the House of Delegates; Democrats a two-vote edge in the state Senate. Majorities in both houses are very much up for grabs in redistricted seats where candidates are running for the first time.

Trends coming from these elections, plus the Republican outright victory in Louisiana back in October, could set a precursor trend for the regular 2024 elections.

Kennedy Breaks 20 Percent Threshold; Nevada’s Lombardo Endorses One-Time Opponent; US Governors’ Approval Ratings; Early Voting Trends Ahead of Tuesday

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 6, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an Independent general election candidate.

Quinnipiac Poll: Kennedy Breaks 20 Percent Threshold — A new national Quinnipiac University survey (Oct. 26-30; 1,772 US Adults; 1,610 US registered voters; live interview) finds Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an Independent general election candidate, securing 22 percent support in a ballot test featuring him, President Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump. The Kennedy presence dragged both President Biden (39 percent) and Mr. Trump (36 percent) below the 40 percent mark. Kennedy’s strongest groups were voters aged 18-34 (38 percent), Independents (36 percent), and Hispanics (33 percent).

As has been the case with other polling, Kennedy draws slightly more support from the Trump/Republican coalition than he does from the Biden/Democratic voter group. In this particular survey, 14 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats support Kennedy.

House

NV-4: Governor Endorses Ex-North Las Vegas Mayor — Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has already waded into the 4th Congressional District Republican primary to endorse former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a Democrat turned Republican. Interestingly, Lee opposed Lombardo in the 2022 governor’s race, but fared poorly in garnering only eight percent support. Lombardo, then the Clark County Sheriff, would go on to defeat incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in the associated general election to become the only challenger to unseat either a sitting governor or a senator in the entire country.

The 2024 4th District Republican primary winner will challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in what is likely to become a competitive race. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NV-4 as D+5. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 34th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Governor

Morning Consult: Governor Approval Survey — The Morning Consult firm released their regular report measuring job approval scores of all 50 US governors and found everyone in positive territory. Govs. Phil Scott (R-VT; 83:14 percent approval/disapproval), Mark Gordon (R-WY; 73:13 percent), Chris Sununu (R-NH; 67:28 percent), Josh Green (D-HI; 66:25 percent), and Mike Dunleavy (R-AK; 63:25 percent) were the five governors commanding the strongest ratios.

The five with the worst ratings are: Govs. Tina Kotek (D-OR; 44:41 percent approval/ disapproval), Tate Reeves (R-MS; 46:44 percent), Katie Hobbs (D-AZ; 48:40 percent), Kim Reynolds (R-IA; 49:47 percent), and outgoing Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA; 49:43 percent). The poorer scores were particularly concerning for Mississippi Gov. Reeves, who is on the ballot for re-election Tuesday, Gov. Reynolds in Iowa who was consistently highly rated in previous surveys, and Gov. Edwards who will leave office in December but, heretofore, had enjoyed reliably positive scores.

States

Early Voting: Monitoring Trends Before Tuesday — Since most states have adopted some form of early voting, analyzing the pre-election vote has proven to be an accurate way to forecast momentum. Monitoring early voting becomes a reliable precursor to forecasting which party will do better when all ballots are counted. Unfortunately, for Tuesday’s election, Mississippi is one of the three states that has no early voting program. Kentucky only allows in-person early voting on the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before the election so early trends are not available in those two states.

The Virginia numbers for the state’s legislative races are interesting. As reported through Nov. 2 from the Target Smart organization, Republican early voting is up three percentage points when compared to the party’s 2021 performance, while Democrats are down 2.7 percent under the same model. Unaffiliated voters are down 0.4 percent from their 2021 performance statistics. Democrats, however, still have more people casting their ballots than do Republicans and unaffiliated voters (52.2 percent of early ballots come from Democrats, 32.7 percent from Republicans, and 15.0 percent from the unaffiliated segment).

The Virginia Public Access Project also charts the pre-election voting. In addition to the early vote by party, they also track the early in-person vote. Here, Republicans have clear momentum for the Tuesday legislative elections. Compared to the 2021 turnout (numbers are recorded in 2021 and 2023 at the 16-day before election mark), Republican early in-person turnout is up 7.4 percentage points, while Democratic early in-person participation is down 6.3 points. Again, however, more Democrats than Republicans have voted, but the comparison within each party’s previous performance has routinely proven significant.

GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; Menendez & Son’s Challenges; Montana Libertarians Change Bylaws

Seven Republican candidates qualified for the second presidential debate. (Fox News graphic)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023

President

Presidential Debate: Seven Qualify — The second Republican presidential debate is scheduled for tonight, and Fox News announced the seven candidates who will participate. With more stringent debate requirements, it was believed that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and ex-Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who both appeared in the first debate, would be disqualified leaving six participants. Former President Donald Trump also qualifies but is again declining to appear. A last minute move from Gov. Burgum, however, allowed him to earn a debate podium spot; Hutchinson failed to do so.

The seven who will be present are: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Burgum. Aside from Hutchinson, national commentator Larry Elder and former US Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) will also not meet the final requirements.

Debate: DeSantis-Newsom Forum Set — Continuing their ongoing public political feud, Florida Gov. DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) have agreed to a date and state for their mutual debate challenge. The event is scheduled for Nov. 30 at a site to be determined in Georgia. Fox News will air the forum that network headliner Sean Hannity will moderate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Addresses Media; Rep. Kim to Run: — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) held an indictment response news conference Monday. His statements left little doubt that he intends to fight the charges levied against him and has no intention of resigning his seat.

Some pre-news conference reports were predicting that the senator would announce his campaign for re-election. He did not specifically address his election status, only to say that he intends to remain New Jersey’s senior senator after he is cleared. He asked the Garden State voters to reserve judgment until “all the facts are known.” But Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) isn’t waiting. Kim announced that he will file a Democratic primary challenge against Sen. Menendez.

House

NJ-8: Mayor May Challenge Rep. Menendez — While Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is publicly defending himself over a new indictment brought against he, his wife, and three other associates, freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son who has defended his father, may be looking at a serious primary challenge.

New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District is solidly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+47. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-8 as the 167th safest seat of the 212-member House Democratic Conference. Therefore, Rep. Menendez’s more significant re-election obstacle is renomination.

Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) confirmed that he is considering launching such a primary challenge. Hoboken, with a population just over 53,000 residents, represents about seven percent of the 8th District’s population but is a considerably larger share of a Democratic primary vote.

States

Montana: Libertarians Change Bylaws — The Montana Libertarian Party has made a significant change to their party bylaws. Beginning immediately, the MLP may now officially endorse a member of another party even if a Libertarian is in the same race. This is significant because the single-digit Libertarian vote has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since their candidates tend to draw from GOP candidates. This causes certain close races, such as in Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) past campaigns, to allow a Democrat to win with a plurality or small majority support.

Should the Montana Libertarian Party decide to endorse the Republican candidate in the upcoming Senate race and not file their own contender, it would be a plus for the eventual GOP nominee.