Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Biden’s Drastically Changed Picture

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and ex-Delaware senator Joe Biden

May 9, 2019 — Recent polling has seen former Vice President Joe Biden take full advantage of his announcement tour. While the pre-race appeared to be settling into a battle between Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), once the ex-VP became an active candidate the picture drastically changed.

Several polls were taken during the last days of April and into early May. The HarrisX research organization and the Morning Consult firm conducted national surveys while Firehouse Strategies/Optimus commissioned Democratic primary polls in three of the first four nomination venues: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. All of these polls produced big leads for Biden in contrast to what we were seeing just two weeks ago.

But, Change Research, in a slightly later New Hampshire poll with a larger sample (May 3-5; 864 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters), finds Sen. Sanders still on top, 30-26-12 percent over Biden and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The HarrisX national poll (May 3-4; 440 registered voters in the US) gives Biden a whopping 44-14 percent lead over Sen. Sanders with all others following in single-digits. The third-place finisher, Mayor Buttigieg has only eight percent support. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) have seven percent and six percent, respectively, while former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) has dropped to just three percent, tied with New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

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We Now Have Candidate #22 In
The Race, And Sanders is Falling

By Jim Ellis

May 6, 2019 — A new Democratic presidential candidate entered the race late last week, one whom we didn’t expect to see this soon.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet

Despite undergoing prostate cancer surgery last month, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet says he has already received a “clean bill of health” and is embarking upon his national political effort. Now at 22 candidates in the field of Democrats seeking their party’s nomination for the 2020 presidential election, eyes turn to Montana Gov. Steve Bullock who could be the last widely discussed potential candidate yet to make a decision about forming a campaign.

It’s difficult to see how Sen. Bennet breaks through to the top tier, however. He is not well known outside of Colorado and starts well behind most of the field, putting him in a difficult position from which to even qualify for the first two debate forums scheduled for late June and the end of July.

To earn a debate podium, all candidates must either tally at least one percent support in three Democratic National Committee designated polls, or attract financial support from 65,000 donors, from which they must have a minimum of 200 in at least 20 states. For the lesser known candidates, debate participation is a necessity in order to propel themselves into serious contention for the nomination.

Furthermore, Sen. Bennet doesn’t even have his home state electorate to himself. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is also in the race, a man who Bennet once served as chief of staff. Just two days ago, Colorado moved its new primary – they used to apportion delegates through the caucus system – to March 3, the 2020 campaign’s Super Tuesday, which could serve to boost one of the two Centennial State candidates. Yet, with both men in the race, the state’s 67 first-ballot delegate contingent will prove less of a base for either one.

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Texas by the Numbers

Map of US Congressional districts in Texas


By Jim Ellis

May 2, 2019 — The Lone Star State continues to move toward competitiveness, meaning the Texas political apparatus will see new approaches from both parties in the 2020 election campaigns.

A new Emerson College poll (April 25-28; 779 likely Texas voters, 342 likely Democratic primary voters, 344 likely Republican primary voters via Interactive Voice Response system) finds President Trump tied with two of the Democratic presidential candidates and only slightly ahead of the rest of the field. And, in Democratic Party trial heats, the results project an equally close potential finish for the state’s 228 first ballot delegates.

According to the Emerson numbers, President Trump would slightly trail former Vice President Joe Biden with each man finishing in the 50 percent realm. Trump is then slightly ahead of Texas former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) but, here too, both men are in the 50 percent realm.

The president fares better against the others, but even they are within striking distance of him in what is arguably his most important state. With 38 Electoral Votes, Texas was the only big state that Republicans could count upon winning without having to campaign, but apparently those days are over.

The next closest Democrat is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He trails by two points, 51-49 percent. The president has healthier margins against Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ahead of both, 54-46 percent, and tops Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 53-47 percent. The fact that all scenarios present no undecideds tells us the pollsters prodded respondents for a definitive answer or are extrapolating some of the results.

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Moulton Announces; New Data
From Iowa & New Hampshire

By Jim Ellis

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem)

April 24, 2019 — Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton (D-Salem) made his flirtation with running for president real over the weekend. Moulton officially joined the field of now 19 candidates and will clearly make neighboring New Hampshire, the site of the nation’s first primary, a key launching point for his campaign.

Rep. Moulton, a decorated military veteran with four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan in addition to leading a group of insurgents to prevent Nancy Pelosi from returning to the House speakership, would make an attractive general election candidate. But he will have a difficult time convincing his own party’s activists, who will dominate the elected delegate membership, to support his presidential effort.

This would not be the first political race for Moulton that featured long odds, however. In 2014, he denied nine-term US Rep. John Tierney (D-Salem) re-nomination in the Democratic primary. Rep. Moulton has averaged 63.7 percent of the vote in his three congressional general elections. While not having to risk his seat to run for president, the congressman will likely face serious Democratic primary opposition should he eventually choose to seek re-election. Continue reading

McAuliffe Pulls Back From Running

By Jim Ellis

April 22, 2019 — After once indicating that he was preparing to announce a presidential effort, former Virginia governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe said that he would not become a national candidate. Rather, he said late last week, he plans to work in Virginia to help Democrats make further political gains in the Old Dominion.

Though McAuliffe continued to keep his name alive as a potential presidential candidate, the preparatory actions surrounding such a move never seemed to be in evidence.

Interestingly, when asked whether he would consider running for governor again in 2021, he didn’t rule out the possibility. Virginia is the only state in the nation that bars a governor from running for two consecutive terms, but it doesn’t prohibit an ex-chief executive from returning after a break in service.

Currently, the number of officially announced presidential contenders is 19, with former Vice President Joe Biden still not confirming his informal candidacy.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) are also making visits to early primary states and appear to be readying a respective campaign apparatus.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) indicated last week that he wants to enter the national campaign, but a prostate cancer diagnosis has derailed any short-term plans he had to join the large field; however, his long-term health prognosis appears strong.

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