Category Archives: House

Another Primary Today

Connecticut

The only race of interest on the Nutmeg State board today is the Republican gubernatorial primary. With Gov. Dan Malloy (D) registering poor job approval numbers and even trailing in some polls, the Republican nomination may be worth having even in this Democratic state. In 2010, former US Ambassador Tom Foley (R) came within 6,404 votes of defeating Malloy in the closest gubernatorial contest of the 2010 election cycle.

Amb. Foley returns for a re-match and is favored over state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R), the son of the late former Rep. Stewart McKinney (R-CT-4). McKinney is running a spirited campaign but will likely fall short. Should Foley win the nomination, the general election will be competitive.

All five incumbent House members are seeking re-election, and all are favorites to win re-election. The only moderately competitive race features a 2010 re-match of a 53-47 percent contest between Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT-4) and former state legislator Dan Debicella (R).

Minnesota

Sen. Al Franken’s (D) numbers have been relatively good as he works toward his first  Continue reading >

Hawaii Shockers: Schatz/Hanabusa Tight, Abercrombie Crushed

Senate

Though polling in this race suggested that either appointed Sen. Brian Schatz or Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) held substantial leads heading into Saturday’s Democratic primary, the campaign finished much different than predicted.

Most of the polling posted Schatz to advantages approaching double-digits, though the race’s final public survey, from Honolulu-based Ward Research, found that Hanabusa held a similar edge. No late-term poll had suggested the race was virtually tied, which is now occurring … present tense, because the campaign is not over.

Since the hurricanes that hit on and around the islands struck ground literally hours before the primary, it may be a couple of weeks before the final outcome is reported and certified. Though Sen. Schatz has a 1,659-vote lead, two precincts on the Big Island of Hawaii remain to be counted. Since roads were closed due to the storms, preventing thousands of voters from having access to the polls, election officials are saying they will expand the voting period.

Due to the closeness of the vote, and that as many as 8,000 voters were unable to cast their ballots on Saturday in the region’s Puna precincts, the affected individuals will  Continue reading >

Razor-Thin Tennessee Results; Walsh; Hawaii, Tomorrow

Tennessee – Statewide

Sen. Lamar Alexander won renomination last night in Tennessee, and while his margin wasn’t razor-thin, his victory percentage was unimpressive. Scoring just 50 percent in his own Republican primary, Alexander out-polled state Rep. Joe Carr’s 41 percent. The remaining five candidates split the outstanding vote.

But the closeness of the contest occurred on the Democratic side, in what will likely be a battle for the right to lose to Alexander in November. Attorney Gordon Ball has been projected the winner, leading attorney Terry Adams by just 1,911 votes statewide.

One thing is clear, however. The statewide turnout overwhelmingly favored Republicans. Approximately 645,000 individuals voted in the Republican primary as compared with just under 240,000 who participated on the Democratic side.

On the other end of the margin perspective, Gov. Bill Haslam (R) cruised to an 88 percent victory. He will face Democrat  Continue reading >

Tennessee Today

The nation’s only Thursday primary occurs today with several races on tap for the Republicans. Democrats will have a relatively quiet night.

Senate

Two-term senator and former presidential candidate Lamar Alexander (R) faces a total of six Republican challengers, two of whom have raised in the neighborhood of $1.5 to $2 million apiece for their respective campaigns. State Rep. Joe Carr and self-funding physician George Flinn are the senator’s top challengers, but the fact that the anti-Alexander vote will be split among six GOP candidates goes a long way to ensuring that the senator will win re-nomination. Alexander’s other key structural advantage is that Tennessee is the only southern state that does not employ a run-off system. Therefore, whoever garners the most votes this evening, regardless of percentage, wins the party nomination.

Interest increased in this race after Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel out-polled Sen. Thad Cochran in their state’s June 3 Republican primary, but dissipated when the senator scored a come-from-behind victory in the June 24 run-off. Tea Party activists around the country believed that “Alexander was next” when they thought that Cochran was headed for defeat.
 Continue reading >

MI-14 Flips

PRIsm FLASH!

Earlier this morning, we reported that state Rep. Rudy Hobbs was leading the closely fought MI-14 Democratic primary. Hobbs, Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, and former Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) were the main contenders vying for the right to succeed Democratic Rep. Gary Peters.

With a large number of Wayne County precincts now being included in the reported counts, the race has turned. Mayor Lawrence now leads with 36 percent, a spread of just under 2,500 votes over Rep. Hobbs, who currently registers 34 percent. Former Rep. Clarke has moved up considerably, too. He now has 31 percent – 3,631 votes behind Lawrence.

It is reasonable to assume that this count will change again as further previously unreported votes become tabulated. Still, with Lawrence now leading by well over 2,000 votes, she is clearly in the driver’s seat to claim the Democratic nomination, and the seat in November.