Monthly Archives: January 2025

Only 16 Districts Split the Ticket

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025

Electorate

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Of the 435 US House races conducted in 2024, only 16 district electorates voted for a different party’s nominee for Representative than they did for President. This means 96.3 percent of the US House district electorates voted a straight party ticket for President and the US House.

In the Senate races, ticket splitting was slightly more prevalent. A total of 88.2 percent of the Senate electorates voted straight ticket. For this calculation, the two Senators elected as Independents but who caucus with the Democrats, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), are counted in the Democratic column.

The electorates from a total of 13 CDs voted for President Donald Trump and then turned around and chose a Democratic Congressman. Just three congressional electorates voted Republican for the House after supporting former Vice President Kamala Harris.

The information comes from a Kyle Kondik article for The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He cites district calculations relating to the presidential and US House contests from Drew Savicki of Election Twitter.

Of the 13 Trump districts that voted Democratic for the House, two are in northern California and another pair lie in south Texas.

In northern California, while then-Rep. John Duarte (R) was losing his Modesto anchored district to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes, which proved the closest House contest in the country, President Trump notched a 51-46 percent victory. Just to the north, in the Stockton anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) was re-elected with a 52-48 percent margin even though Trump recorded a victory spread of approximately 1.5 percentage points.

Turning to the Rio Grande Valley, while indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) was winning an 11th term with a 53-47 percent margin in his district that stretches from San Antonio to the US-Mexican border, Trump won with a slightly larger 53-46 percent vote spread.

To the east in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) 51-49 percent, while President Trump expanded his margin to 52-47 percent; this, in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. In the past two elections, however, the 34th has voted more Republican, so we can expect a rating adjustment for this particular district.

The other Democrats who won their individual elections even though Trump was winning in their districts are: Reps. Jared Golden (ME-2), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8), Nellie Pou (NJ-9), Gabe Vasquez (NM-2), Don Davis (NC-1), Susie Lee (NV-3), Tom Suozzi (NY-3), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3).

The three Republican victories that flipped from Harris to a Republican House candidate came in GOP incumbent seats. Reps. Don Bacon (NE-2), Mike Lawler (NY-17), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) all won re-election to the House even though Trump failed to carry their districts.

In the 2020 election, there were also 16 electorates that voted split ticket for President and US House, but the complexion is different.

Those districts that voted for Joe Biden and a Republican House member in 2020 and switched to Trump in 2024 while continuing to support a GOP House candidate are: AZ-1 (Rep. David Schweikert) and CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao).

Those that voted for Trump and a Democratic House contender in 2020 but returned to a Republican-Republican ticket in ’24 are: AZ-2 (Rep. Eli Crane-R/formerly Rep. Tom O’Halleran-D), IA-3 (Rep. Zach Nunn-R/formerly Rep. Cindy Axne-D), and PA-8 (Rep. Rob Bresnahan-R/formerly Rep. Matt Cartwright-D). Within this latter group, Rep. Cartwright was defeated in the 2024 election. Reps. O’Halleran and Axne lost their seats in 2022.

As you can see, the vast majority of the electorate still tends to vote straight party, and particularly so in presidential election years. It remains to be seen if we will see a pattern shift coming in 2026.

South Carolina Sen. Graham’s
Budding Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Several Republican Senators are already seeing potential GOP primary opponents beginning to make moves to launch their 2026 challenge campaigns.

One such potential primary is developing in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham said this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year. Concurrently, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to make public statements confirming that he is testing the political waters for a primary challenge against Sen. Graham.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham in 2014, is also says she is considering making another bid but has recently been less vociferous about making such a move.

Rep. Norman was initially elected to his 5th Congressional District position in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R) who resigned to join the first Trump Administration. Prior to serving in federal office, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2006.

Congressman Norman has averaged 61.1 percent of the vote in his four regular election campaigns after winning the initial special election with just 51 percent. The result was considered an underperformance in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization now rates as R+15, and The Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 90th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

For his part, Sen. Graham has averaged 62 percent of the vote in his last two Republican primaries (2020 and 2014). In the 2020 general election, despite having an opponent, now current but outgoing Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison, raise over $132 million against him, or $20 million more than Graham commanded, the Senator won the election by just over ten percentage points in what became a national campaign. Therefore, denying the Senator renomination or re-election in 2026 will be no easy feat.

While Rep. Norman confirmed his interest in a Senate challenge this week he did not commit to running. The Congressman previously stated he also had a potential interest in entering the open race for Governor but is no longer making any comments about this move. While Sen. Graham has over $15.6 million cash-on-hand in his year-end campaign finance report, Rep. Norman ended the 2024 campaign cycle with $601,000 in the bank, approximately $15 million behind the Senator.

Norman has been a strong supporter of President-Elect Donald Trump throughout the latter’s political career and would likely be work for an endorsement if he were to run for the Senate. Sen. Graham, while originally an opponent of Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, has since become one of his stronger supporters in the Senate.

Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the President would potentially support Graham, or simply stay out of the race. Defeating a Republican incumbent in a primary without a Trump endorsement has proven a very difficult task for GOP intraparty challengers around the country.

Sen. Graham is certainly not the only Republican Senator who may face a primary. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will engage in a campaign opposite State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, while simultaneously Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) may see his state’s Attorney General, Ken Paxton, launch his own campaign.

Talk continues that Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) may also be challenged for renomination, but nothing concrete has yet developed in their states. In Florida, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) says he will oppose whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Sen. Marco Rubio upon the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State.

Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle evolve in South Carolina next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP opponents. In a strongly conservative state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever earns the GOP nomination will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November 2026.

Ohio’s Husted Appointed to Senate

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025

Senate

Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) / FoxNews photo

On Friday, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) made his long-awaited announcement as to who will replace Vice President J.D. Vance in the US Senate. The Governor chose Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R).

Vance resigned his Senate seat on Jan. 10, but DeWine waited until the 17th to make the appointment announcement, yet it was apparent from the start that his first choice was Husted. The question became whether the Lieutenant Governor would accept the appointment.

Husted has been preparing a run for Governor for more than seven years dating back to his time as Ohio’s Secretary of State. In 2018, Husted ran for Governor along with then-Attorney General DeWine and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor.

The three-way Republican nomination race looked close as the candidates headed to the May primary. It appeared that Taylor had a chance to win by moving to the right of both DeWine and Husted, thus making them split the centrist/moderate Republican vote and allowing her to claim victory with plurality support.

Seeing this scenario as a real possibility, Husted went to DeWine suggesting a deal. He would agree to drop out of the Governor’s race and endorse DeWine if the latter would endorse Husted for Lieutenant Governor and the two would run as a team. DeWine accepted and both men would go onto claim the party nomination for their respective offices and then successfully win two succeeding general elections.

As part of the plan, Husted would run for Governor when DeWine served his legally allowed two terms, meaning the Lieutenant Governor would seek the state’s top position in 2026. As Gov. DeWine mentioned in the appointment video, he and the new Senator-Designate have been very close during their time in office and truly operated as a team, just as Husted suggested when offering DeWine the 2018 deal.

The Vance election as Vice President changed the paradigm as did the emergence of Attorney General Dave Yost, who has also already been campaigning for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Before the Vance national election, it appeared the two, Husted and Yost, were headed toward a very rough 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary battle.

The Senate seat opening changed the situation since appointing one of the two would avoid a potentially bloody primary. Both men, however, indicated they wanted to remain in the Governor’s race. The delay in announcing the appointment was sending signals that DeWine was having trouble convincing Husted to accept the Senate seat but if such were the case, the situation has now been obviously solved.

The downside to the Senate appointment is that whoever was granted the position would have to run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint. This would mean continual fundraising over a four-year period in a large state that will feature expensive campaigns requiring spending in several expensive media markets.

Additionally, the Democrats will make a major play for the seat especially in 2026, and possibly in the person of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who just lost in November but is claiming his career in elective politics has not drawn to a conclusion. In the 2024 election cycle, Brown attracted a whopping $103 million for his unsuccessful re-election bid and while losing still he proved eminently effective on the fundraising circuit. Ex-Sen. Brown attempting a comeback would mean that Husted would face a major opponent in the ’26 general election.

The appointment, however, may not yet have avoided a messy primary. Over the weekend, Gov. DeWine held a meeting with former presidential candidate and Ohio resident Vivek Ramaswamy, ostensibly about the Senate appointment.

Post-meeting and the Husted announcement, it is being reported that Ramaswamy will not continue with the Trump Administration and has exited his position as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Ramaswamy, instead, is reported to be mulling a run for Governor.

If so, then AG Yost will not have a free ride in the Governor’s race and again be in the situation of facing a major Republican opponent who, in this case, has virtually unlimited personal funds.

Husted will now be sworn into the Senate, along with Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) who will take the Florida Senate seat of Marco Rubio. Last night, Rubio was confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State.

Regardless of which candidates ultimately decide to run for what Ohio office, the Buckeye State promises to feature some of the hottest campaigns in the upcoming national election cycle.

DeSantis Appoints Ashley Moody

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Senate

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody

With Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) confirmation as US Secretary of State virtually assured, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made his announcement yesterday as to who will succeed the Senator when he officially resigns.

As expected, based upon recent predictions, Gov. DeSantis selected state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to assume the Senate seat once the position officially becomes vacant. President-Elect Donald Trump will nominate his cabinet choices once he is sworn into office; when certain confirmation hearings are completed, we can expect the Senate to take swift action regarding key confirmation votes.

Sen. Rubio is expected to sail through the process, since he is a well known figure to all Senators. Once he is officially confirmed, the new Secretary of State will resign the Senate seat and Moody will likely be on hand to take the oath of office for her new position. This would mean no lapse in Florida Senate representation.

The same cannot be said for the similar situation in Ohio. Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance resigned from the Senate on Jan. 10, but Gov. Mike DeWine has yet to name a replacement.

It’s possible that the Governor is having trouble filling the seat. Lt. Gov. Jon Husted appears to be his first choice, but stories continue to surface indicating that Husted wants to remain in Ohio to fight in a tough open 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.

A story appeared midweek that former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy met with the Governor last weekend to discuss the Senate position. This is a surprising development, since Ramaswamy, citing his position as co-director of President-Elect Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), withdrew his name from Senate consideration weeks ago.

Though the chosen individual will literally be handed a Senate seat, the long-term path is not without challenges. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who new Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) unseated in November, says he is not done with public service and is viewed as a possible 2026 contender vying for the right to serve the balance of the current term.

Brown raised a whopping $103 million for his losing 2024 effort. Considering his long record in Ohio politics, any appointed Senator would be forced to conduct an expensive major campaign versus a very formidable opponent.

Even if successful in 2026, the new Senator would again face the voters in 2028 when this particular seat next comes in-cycle. Therefore, whomever is chosen can expect to be in full campaign mode for a four-year period.

Attorney General Moody is close to Gov. DeSantis and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1 percent of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6 percent. As was explained regarding the eventual new Ohio Senator, Moody will run to fill the balance of her new term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.

Additionally, Moody will apparently face significant opposition in the next Republican primary. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) said earlier in the week that he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whomever Gov. DeSantis appoints.

The current spate of Florida political musical chairs is allowing Gov. DeSantis, who cannot seek a third term in 2026, to continue shaping a large segment of his state’s future government. Not only did he pick Moody for the Senate, but he will now be able to choose a replacement Attorney General.

Furthermore, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) leaving his 1st District seat, current Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) entered the special election field and is widely viewed as the favorite. Under Florida state law, any officeholder running for a different position must resign his current post.

Since the 1st District special election is scheduled for April 1, Petronis announced that he will leave his current position on March 31. Regardless if Petronis wins or loses the congressional seat, the statewide CFO position will be open at the beginning of April, and Gov. DeSantis will then have the opportunity of filling that position, as well.

Looking ahead, the state of Florida will experience a period of significant political change over the course of the next two years, and Gov. DeSantis will have the power to choose his allies to lead the state long after he leaves office.

Mills Looking to Enter Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025

Senate

Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as our next Secretary of State he will resign his current position, which potentially launches a wave of Florida political musical chairs.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will choose a replacement Senator once Rubio is officially confirmed. It is expected that the Senator will be one of the first Trump cabinet nominees to complete the Senate confirmation process. He will then immediately resign from his current position upon receiving his vote. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will announce his replacement appointment.

According to a declaration this week, the whoever Desantis appoints as Senator will likely have Republican primary opposition in the next election. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has said he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whom Gov. DeSantis appoints.

Mills knows he will not receive the appointment. He confirms that the Governor has not interviewed him for the position, as has been the case with other GOP members of the Florida US House delegation. DeSantis, a former Congressman himself, is concerned about the slim Republican majority in the body and will not reduce the margin even further by choosing a House member.

President-Elect Donald Trump has already picked two Florida Representatives for appointments. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz was selected as Attorney General, but his nomination was met with strong opposition in the Senate, and it became obvious that he would not be confirmed. Thus, Gaetz removed himself from consideration for the cabinet position, but after he resigned from the House.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been chosen as President-Elect Trump’s National Security Advisor and indicated that he will officially resign from Congress on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. His position does not require Senate confirmation so he can assume his new position immediately upon Trump being officially sworn into office.

Gov. DeSantis has scheduled the two Florida US House special elections concurrently, with the primary election coming already on Jan. 28. The special general for both the Gaetz and Waltz districts will be held April 1. When Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, she will also resign from the House. This will take the partisan division down to 217R – 215D, hence the reason that Gov. DeSantis will not consider taking another House member for his Senate appointment.

The slim US House majority, however, is apparently not stopping Rep. Mills from running for the Senate in 2026. The second-term Congressman has already said that he will challenge whoever is appointed in the statewide Republican primary, and fight to win the seat. Doing so will open another Florida US House seat in the regular general election.

The special elections have already caused another opening. Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) is a candidate for the Gaetz seat in the special congressional election and expected to win. Under Florida’s resign-to-run rule, Petronis has relinquished his position, thus giving Gov. DeSantis another position to fill.

Turning to the soon-to-be open Senate seat, betting odds suggest that state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) will be DeSantis’ choice. She is close to the Governor and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1 percent of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6 percent. If appointed, Moody would run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.

Now, it appears that she, or another if DeSantis chooses a different individual, will not only have to run in ’26 and ’28, but a 2026 primary challenge will also be added to the succeeding individual’s political card. Therefore, the person chosen will be forced to compete in several statewide election campaigns over a relatively short period thus adding major fundraising pressure to the individual’s substantial legislative responsibilities.

To further complicate the political musical chairs situation, should Gov. DeSantis select Moody, he will then have another appointment to make, i.e., filling her vacated position as state Attorney General. If the Governor chooses a member of the state legislature to fill either the CFO or Attorney General’s position, he will then have to schedule further special elections to replace those individuals.

While 2025 is an off-year for elections, the world of filling political positions either through election or appointment won’t see any down time. With Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) in a similar position regarding choosing a replacement for Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance now that he has resigned from the Senate, the early 2025 political environment is anything but quiet.

New Hampshire May Follow Maine & Nebraska’s Electoral Vote Model

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2025

States

New Hampshire Congressional Districts

Republican legislative leaders in New Hampshire are floating a bill that would change the Granite State’s electoral vote apportionment formula to one modeled after the systems in Maine and Nebraska.

There, instead of a winner-take-all system to award all of the state’s electoral votes to the winning statewide popular vote general election presidential candidate, the Maine and Nebraska process awards two electoral votes for the statewide victor and one each to the candidate carrying each of the state’s congressional districts. Maine has two CDs, and Nebraska three.

During the Trump era, we have seen splits in both states routinely occur. Trump carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his presidential runs, thus capturing one electoral vote from the state’s total of four even though his opponents claimed the statewide tally. In Nebraska during the past two elections, Democratic nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris each clinched the state’s 2nd CD, thus awarding them one electoral vote of the domain’s five.

Because of the system, much greater attention has been paid to those two states, and the effect of a wayward congressional district throwing the national election into a tie during a close national contest has certainly become an enhanced scenario.

The added attention has certainly brought more advertising dollars and campaign expenditures to both Maine and Nebraska. Without the congressional district apportionment system, little attention would have been paid to Nebraska since it is a reliable Republican state, and a great deal less would have been spent in Maine because the state has a consistent Democratic voting history.

New Hampshire is different. Already regarded as a state in play during the most recent presidential elections, going to the congressional district apportionment system would likely enhance its importance.

Since the turn of the century, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic nominee in six of the seven presidential contests, but the average spread between the two major party candidates in the respective years has been only 4.4 percentage points. In Trump’s three elections, he lost New Hampshire by an average of 3.4 percent.

In the particular elections from 2008 through 2020, the Democratic winner carried both of New Hampshire’s congressional districts with the exception of 2016 when Trump topped Hillary Clinton in the state’s eastern 1st CD. Therefore, in most of the 21st Century elections, the apportionment system would not have changed the national electoral vote matrix. The margins, however, in each of the districts have been close.

The 2024 presidential election totals for New Hampshire’s districts have not yet been published, but it is likely that Harris carried both CDs. She defeated Trump by a 50.7 – 47.9 percent statewide margin, and while the spread is close it is likely enough to see her prevail in both the 1st and 2nd CDs. Further evidence of such is revealed through the Democratic congressional candidates carrying both districts.

Republicans have large majorities in both New Hampshire legislative chambers, 221-177-1 with one vacancy in the House and 16-8 in the state Senate. Sen. Bill Gannon (R-Sandown) is sponsoring the electoral vote apportionment bill. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the bill has a strong chance of moving out of his committee to the floor with a positive recommendation. Considering the Republicans strong majorities in both houses and with leadership support, the bill has a good chance of becoming law.

Should the proposal become law, it would take effect in the 2028 presidential election. Since the recent presidential elections have all been close, New Hampshire changing to a congressional district apportionment system could well have an interesting impact upon many future national campaigns.

Cooper’s Challenge; Texas Senate Battle; Democrat’s Election Battle; PA-8, WA-4 House News; Governor Races Maneuvering

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

North Carolina — Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats’ first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running “in the next few months.” Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Texas — A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (Jan. 4-6; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn, a move that Paxton does not deny.

According to the ballot test, Paxton would lead the Senator 42-34 percent, which is a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23 percent among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24 percent from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15 percent spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18 percent within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.

DSCC — New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Sen. Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races, which includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.

House

PA-8 — Former Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton-anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2 percent majority, a margin of 4,062 votes of 403,314 cast ballots. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region’s voter history and that Cartwright’s last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.

WA-4 — Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46 percent margin even with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment.

In 2022, Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3 percent of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.

Governor

New Jersey — In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that is already featuring a very competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10.

Already in the Democratic race are two current Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and three Mayors, Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City), along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.

Ohio — This week, Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio’s Covid chief, announced that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Competitive primaries are expected in both parties with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio’s recent voting history.

Gov. DeWine’s choice to replace Sen. J.D. Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor’s race once the Senate pick is announced.