Monthly Archives: December 2024

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays (Plus, Gaetz’s Rumored Return)


Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays, everyone. Ellis Insight will be taking a break over the holidays. Today will be our last post this year. We’ll return Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 with continuing updates.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024

House

Resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

In the fervor of the continuing resolution battle, a rumored side story may soon be picking up steam. Some are speculating that resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz may now take his seat when the new Congress commences on Jan. 3 at least for a short period.

Considering that more chatter surrounds Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as becoming politically weaker through the CR fight seemingly makes a Gaetz return potentially more probable.

The resigned Congressman’s story never seems to end. To review, when Gaetz left the House in mid-November, he could do so only for the current term. He said in his resignation letter, however, that it is his “intent” to resign for the coming term.

In the Nov. 5 election, Gaetz was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote, so should he change his mind and decide to take the oath of office it would be difficult to craft an argument to deny him since his election percentage was overwhelming.

The speculation regarding him taking the oath of office on Jan. 3 appears to be twofold. First, he may now want to participate in the Speaker’s vote if he believes Johnson is beatable. His second reason could possibly be to release congressional “MeToo” names in retaliation for the House Ethics Committee members reversing course and publicizing their findings in his case.

Should Gaetz actually return, it is believed that he would only serve for a matter of days before resigning again to assume his recently agreed upon news anchor duties with the OAN Network. Yet, can any current political move be considered “a sure thing?”

How this situation concludes will likely depend upon the way in which the continuing resolution battle is resolved. If the government is shut down and remains so through the Jan. 3 congressional commencement, the odds may grow that Gaetz would take his seat to participate in what would be a historic, yet wholly chaotic, Speaker election on the House floor.

Remembering Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker election of two years ago, which consumed 15 rounds of roll calls, such a scenario as described above would likely make the coming Speaker vote even more noteworthy.

At this point, the possibility of Gaetz taking office for a short number of days is unlikely to affect the special election calendar that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) scheduled to fill his vacant 1st District seat for the new Congress. The special Republican primary is scheduled for Jan. 28 with the associated special general election on April 1.

Should Gaetz rescind his resignation intent and indicate he will serve the balance of the new term, he would likely have the right to do so, and the special election would be canceled.

Currently, nine Republicans, one Democrat, one Independent, and several qualified write-in candidates are competing for the seat in the special election. In what has continually proven to be Florida’s safest Republican seat (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38) the Gaetz succession battle will likely be determined in the late January special Republican primary.

Though nine candidates are on the ballot, it is apparent the race is narrowing to two contenders: Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Most of the Republican establishment, including President-Elect Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), have endorsed Petronis. Several strong contenders dropped out of the race once Petronis received those endorsements, and likewise pledged their support to the current statewide official.

Once again, we see another unique political situation, and this one, too, merits watching all the way through conclusion.

North Carolina Senate:
Another Tight Race Forecast

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 23, 2024

Senate

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

Tar Heel State Sen. Thom Tillis (R) stands for re-election to a third term in 2026, and another tough campaign is looming for him on the political horizon. In fact, history shows us that the preponderance of North Carolina political contests end in razor-thin victory margins.

Looking at the key statewide races since and including 2016, the winning percentages were as follows: 2016 President (Trump 49.8 percent); 2016 Senate (Burr 51.1 percent); 2016 Governor (Cooper 49.0 percent); 2020 President (Trump 49.9) percent; 2020 Senate (Tillis 49.9 percent); 2020 Governor (Cooper 51.5 percent); 2022 Senate (Budd 50.5 percent); 2024 President (Trump 50.9 percent).

As you can see, regardless of political party affiliation or even incumbency, a typical North Carolina campaign is extremely close. Therefore, Sen. Tillis can expect another close finish in 2026 especially if his Democratic opponent is outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper, which is a distinct possibility. Gov. Cooper is also speculated upon as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Tillis, the former Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, was originally elected to the Senate in 2014 when he unseated then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with 48.8 percent of the vote in another close electoral contest that ended in a 1.5 percentage point victory spread for the GOP challenger.

In 2020, Sen. Tillis trailed in the polls for almost the entire campaign, but rebounded to defeat Democrat Cal Cunningham after the latter man was caught in an ongoing extramarital affair. Sen. Tillis would post a two-point win but fell short of the 50 percent mark.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, 28 surveys were conducted of the 2020 NC Senate race during the final month of the campaign. Cunningham led in 24 of the polls, and Sen. Tillis in only two, while two results found the men tied. The associated negative publicity relating to Cunningham’s extramarital affair helped turn the race Tillis’ way, along with the pollsters consistently under-counting the Republican support factor which is often the case in the southern states.

In 2026, it is conceivable that Sen. Tillis may face primary opposition, particularly if he decides to oppose one or more of the Trump cabinet nominees. Previously, Tillis had little trouble in his primaries, however.

He received 78 percent of the vote in 2020 and won a crowded initial primary in 2014 with 45.7 percent of the vote against seven Republican opponents. North Carolina has a 30 percent runoff law, so it is unlikely that a 2026 primary will produce a field of candidates with low enough support to force a secondary election. Therefore, expect a nominee to come forth through one intra-party election in both parties.

While Gov. Cooper would be the Democratic leadership’s first choice to oppose Sen. Tillis, there is no guarantee that he will run, possibly due to the lure of an open Democratic presidential primary season beginning just weeks after the 2026 midterm elections conclude.

Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) didn’t seek a second term in the House because his 13th Congressional District turned red in the 2023 redistricting plan. Instead, Nickel announced that he would bypass a 2024 re-election campaign in order to challenge Sen. Tillis in 2026. Therefore, the Democrats are guaranteed of having at least one credible candidate to make a Senate run in the next statewide election.

In the 2026 Senate races, Republicans will be in a defensive position similar to the way Democrats were defending themselves in ’24. Counting the yet-to-be named Senators from Ohio and Florida when Sens. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) assume their new positions as Vice President and Secretary of State and resign from the Senate, Republicans will be defending 22 seats and Democrats only 13. In the 2024 election, Democrats had to defend 23 seats as compared to the Republicans’ 11.

Clearly, the North Carolina race, mostly due to the state’s voter history that features such close elections, will be at the top of the Democrats’ conversion target list. Therefore, we can count on paying close attention to the Tar Heel State race throughout the entire election cycle.

House Re-Match Prospects

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 20, 2024

House

Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown)

Eleven members of the House of Representatives lost their seats on Nov. 5, and several have already said they are open to seeking a re-match in 2026. With such a small majority margin in the new Congress, House control will again be up for grabs in 2026.

The latest to make such a comment is Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), who lost to state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) by a narrow 50.5 – 49.5 percent majority, or a margin of 4,062 votes from 403,314 ballots cast. Wild said that she is not ruling out returning for a re-match.

Of the 11 defeated members, seven are Republicans as compared to four Democrats. One of the Republicans, Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has been nominated as President-Elect Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor, so she will certainly not be returning for another House race.

California Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) lost the closest House race in the country, falling by just 187 votes. While Duarte said he would consider running for Congress again, he is also being floated as the Director of the Bureau of Reclamation in the Trump Administration.

Those who have made no comment about future plans include Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), Brandon Williams (R-NY), and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).

Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has not made any definitive comments about her future, but she certainly could return to seek a rematch with the man who unseated her, freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R).

Looking at a different option, Peltola would likely easily win the Democratic nomination for what will be an open Governor’s position. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so expect a major open-seat battle in this race. Since Alaska voters kept their top four Ranked Choice Voting system, the Democrats have a better chance of scoring an upset win.

While New York Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) has not yet said he would seek a re-match, there is speculation that he could be under consideration to become the Republican nominee in the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) seat just to the north of his own district.

In New York, special elections do not have primaries. When Ms. Stefanik is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations the 15 Republican County Chairs will choose the replacement nominee. Therefore, the eventual winner could claim the position with as little as seven votes. The Republican nominee will be favored in the special election, but the New York special election certainly has the potential of becoming competitive.

Two-term California Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is further along the re-match path than any of the others. She has already filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is looking to reverse her 653-vote loss to attorney Derek Tran (D). The filing of a campaign committee does not necessarily mean a candidacy will follow, but Steel’s comments suggest that she is making an early commitment to running again.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) was the biggest surprise winner of the 2022 election cycle and represented the most Democratic seat in the country to elect a Republican Congressman. He defeated then-Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, who then returned this year to capture the seat with a two percentage point victory. D’Esposito is another who professes to be open to potentially seeking a re-match.

Regardless of whether we see multiple re-matches from the 2024 campaign, all of the aforementioned politically marginal districts will likely be in play two years from now.

It is likely we will see more seats becoming competitive in two years, but the re-match campaigns will certainly head the A-target lists for both parties.

Ousted Sen. Brown Vows to Return; Colorado’s Neguse Leads in Early Poll; New Mexico Governor Candidacy Considerations

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Defeated Sen. Brown Hints at Return — “This is my last speech on the Floor this year. But it is not — I promise you — the last time you will hear from me,” were the words of defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) suggesting that he will make a comeback in future elections. He lost the 2024 election to Senator-Elect Bernie Moreno (R) by a 50-46 percent count. If so, it is likely the 72-year-old long-time Ohio politician will again seek office in 2026. He could choose to run in the open Governor’s race where he would likely have an easy run in the Democratic primary or attempt to return to the Senate.

When Sen. J.D. Vance resigns his seat to become Vice President in January, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement. the new Senator may well find him or herself on the ballot in 2026, and possibly again in 2028, against Brown. Whoever is appointed will run to serve the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full six-year term in 2028.

Governor

Colorado: Rep. Neguse Leads Early Dem Primary Poll –– Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so a very competitive 2026 Democratic primary awaits the voters. Magellan Strategies completed a Centennial State Democratic primary poll earlier this month (for the Healthier Colorado organization; Dec. 4-9; 630 likely Colorado Democratic and unaffiliated primary voters; text & online) and found Boulder area Congressman Joe Neguse opening with a small lead.

According to the ballot test, Rep. Neguse posted 20 percent support with Secretary of State Jena Griswold in second position at 16 percent. Current US Ambassador to Mexico, former US Senator, and ex-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was next with 11 percent, while Attorney General Phil Weiser follows at eight percent preference. Therefore, the results of this survey suggest that we will see a highly competitive wide open race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The eventual nominee will then be a heavy favorite to win the office in the 2026 general election.

New Mexico: Interior Secretary Haaland Making Gov Move — Another state with a term-limited Governor is New Mexico; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Therefore, speculation is brisk as to who will run to succeed the outgoing Governor. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), fresh from his re-election victory for a third term, could be interested in running for Governor.

Now, we see US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland (D) also coming to the forefront. In addition to Sen. Heinrich and Secretary Haaland, Lt. Gov. Howie Morales and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver are also potential Democratic candidates. Whoever wins the June 2026 Democratic primary will hold the inside track to winning the general election.

Sen. Cornyn’s Budding Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

It is common knowledge in Texas political circles that four-term Sen. John Cornyn will face a Republican primary challenge from three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton, but is such a race an upset in the making?

Paxton has won three statewide elections to his current position, but his most difficult challenge may have been surviving a 2023 impeachment effort. The state House of Representatives voted in an overwhelming margin to impeach him, but he was saved in the state Senate when the body fell well short of the two-thirds majority vote to remove him from office. Most of the 16 articles of impeachment dealt with accusations of improperly using his office to assist a federally indicted individual.

The impeachment’s sideshow included bringing his alleged mistress into the proceedings to discuss whether the AG had used state funds to cover travel and lodging expenses in association with an extramarital affair.

Additionally, Paxton had been under federal indictment since 2015 over financial transactions before becoming Attorney General. After allowing the case to languish for almost a decade, the government settled the case earlier this year.

All of this notwithstanding, Paxton is reportedly toning his political operation to challenge Sen. Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. Some suggest that the Senator could be vulnerable in a Texas GOP primary because he is closer to the political center than the Republican electorate as a whole.

When reviewing the candidates’ political history, however, such may not be the case. In addition to clinching four Senate elections, Cornyn also won statewide elections for Attorney General and state Supreme Court during his long career. In his four Senate general elections, Sen. Cornyn averaged 56.3 percent of the vote.

This number factors favorably when compared to other key Texas statewide officials, Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. Abbott has averaged 56.6 percent in his three elections, and Sen. Cruz 53.5 percent in his trio of statewide elections, the most recent of which was on Nov. 5 when he defeated Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), 53.1 – 44.6 percent.

Sen. Cornyn’s primary statistics, an impending election where some view him as weaker than against a Democrat, are actually more impressive. In his four primary elections, including when Cornyn first won the open seat in 2002, he averaged 77.3 percent. The Senator’s most difficult primary challenge came in 2014 when he defeated then-Rep. Steve Stockman with 59.4 percent, thus winning the party nomination outright and avoiding a runoff election.

Furthermore, the Cornyn stats compare favorably with those of Paxton. The Attorney General has also won three statewide general elections with an average vote percentage of 54.3; but, the primary numbers show a major support difference.

In Paxton’s three primaries, he averaged 62.4 percent of the Republican vote. In two of those primaries, however, he was forced into a runoff election. In the third, his first re-election in 2018, he ran unopposed for renomination, which obviously pushes his average northward. In the two campaigns where a runoff occurred, Paxton’s primary average was only 43.6 percent. He did well in his two runoffs, however, averaging 66.5 percent.

Paxton will also see a major difference in running for federal office. While he has been a successful fundraiser, he’s done so with large contributions that are legal under Texas election law. He has not participated in a race with severe contribution limits such as in a federal contest.

Looking at the financial situation, Sen. Cornyn reports a cash-on-hand figure of $3.5 million at the end of the 2024 election cycle. Paxton has $2.5 million in his AG campaign account, but none of that money can be transferred to a federal account because it was not raised under the federal contribution limits. Therefore, from a financial perspective, he would begin a federal election campaign from ground zero.

While Paxton is close to President-Elect Trump and is likely counting on an endorsement from him, such may change before this election campaign comes to fruition. Sen. Cornyn has already pledged to vote for all of the Trump nominations, and the two are sure to routinely support each other’s legislative goals, so it can’t be assumed that Trump would oppose Sen. Cornyn.

Obviously, this potential challenge campaign will be a long time coming and not certain until filing time. Yet, with Sen. Cornyn making clear moves to prepare for another re-election campaign, a Paxton upset must be considered a major long shot.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.

Emerging Battleground States

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 16, 2024

Battleground States

In looking at the final results from November’s presidential, Senate, and congressional races, we see that several states could be on the verge of becoming future battleground entities.

It was clear that seven states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were the battlegrounds that all were monitoring, but six other states are showing signs of potentially falling into such a category in future elections.

Turning to President-Elect Donald Trump’s final vote statistics, he scored in the 70 percentile in two states, Wyoming (71.1 percent), and West Virginia (70.0 percent), while in his two lowest voting entities he posted percentages under 33: Vermont (32.0 percent) and the District of Columbia (6.4 percent).

In 10 states, Trump finished in the 60s. From highest to lowest in this category, those states are: North Dakota, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Louisiana. In another dozen voting entities, he finished with percentages between 59.6 (Nebraska) and 54.5 (Alaska).

Looking at the close states, the aforementioned seven wholly recognized battlegrounds returned Trump vote percentages in a tight window between 52.2 percent (Arizona) and 49.7 percent (Wisconsin).

The Trump margins in the six emerging battleground states were not far behind the lowest recognized battleground. The six states falling into this new competitive category are New Hampshire (Trump 47.6 – Kamala Harris 50.4), Minnesota (46.7 – 50.9), New Jersey (46.1 – 52.0), Virginia (46.1 – 51.8), New Mexico (45.8 – 51.8), and Maine (45.5 – 52.2).

Four of the six emerging states hosted Senate races, but none were particularly competitive. Three of the four, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico, featured multi-term incumbents and in only the Land of Enchantment did the Republican challenger, Nella Domenici, have adequate funding with which to compete with her opponent, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).

New Jersey was the fourth state within this group to host a Senate race and here Rep. Andy Kim (D) easily defeated an underfunded Republican candidate. Therefore, little can be determined from these races.

In all 13 battleground and pre-battleground states, the House races became a bit more definitive. Within these domains, 26 House races could be considered competitive. Of the 26, Democrats were protecting 16 of the districts and Republicans’ 10. The GOP was able to convert three Democratic held seats (PA-7; Rep. Susan Wild losing to Ryan Mackenzie; PA-8; Rep. Matt Cartwright losing to Rob Bresnahan; and MI-7 (Tom Barrett winning the open seat), while Democrats converted no Republican seat.

In the six emerging states we saw no conversions but witnessed some closer than expected finishes. The six entities hosted 10 competitive races. The average spread among those within the competitive category was 5.2 percentage points, and removing the winner with the largest victory margin, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and her 13-point spread, the remaining nine congressional victors averaged winning margins of just 4.3 percentage points.

Therefore, the conclusion that can be drawn from the six emerging states is they are ones to watch in the 2026 election, and possibly beyond. Races ending in closer than expected margins suggest we could be seeing fundamental electoral movement in each place, though it will take at least two more election cycles to determine if they’re on the cusp of a longer lasting pattern.

There was no traditionally Republican state that under-performed for the GOP in the 2024 election. The biggest gainer for Trump in comparison to his 2020 performance among these traditional Republican states was Florida where he increased his percentage by 4.9 points. He rose 4.1 points in Texas and 4.0 in Mississippi.