Daily Archives: January 22, 2025

South Carolina Sen. Graham’s
Budding Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Several Republican Senators are already seeing potential GOP primary opponents beginning to make moves to launch their 2026 challenge campaigns.

One such potential primary is developing in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham said this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year. Concurrently, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to make public statements confirming that he is testing the political waters for a primary challenge against Sen. Graham.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham in 2014, is also says she is considering making another bid but has recently been less vociferous about making such a move.

Rep. Norman was initially elected to his 5th Congressional District position in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R) who resigned to join the first Trump Administration. Prior to serving in federal office, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2006.

Congressman Norman has averaged 61.1 percent of the vote in his four regular election campaigns after winning the initial special election with just 51 percent. The result was considered an underperformance in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization now rates as R+15, and The Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 90th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

For his part, Sen. Graham has averaged 62 percent of the vote in his last two Republican primaries (2020 and 2014). In the 2020 general election, despite having an opponent, now current but outgoing Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison, raise over $132 million against him, or $20 million more than Graham commanded, the Senator won the election by just over ten percentage points in what became a national campaign. Therefore, denying the Senator renomination or re-election in 2026 will be no easy feat.

While Rep. Norman confirmed his interest in a Senate challenge this week he did not commit to running. The Congressman previously stated he also had a potential interest in entering the open race for Governor but is no longer making any comments about this move. While Sen. Graham has over $15.6 million cash-on-hand in his year-end campaign finance report, Rep. Norman ended the 2024 campaign cycle with $601,000 in the bank, approximately $15 million behind the Senator.

Norman has been a strong supporter of President-Elect Donald Trump throughout the latter’s political career and would likely be work for an endorsement if he were to run for the Senate. Sen. Graham, while originally an opponent of Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, has since become one of his stronger supporters in the Senate.

Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the President would potentially support Graham, or simply stay out of the race. Defeating a Republican incumbent in a primary without a Trump endorsement has proven a very difficult task for GOP intraparty challengers around the country.

Sen. Graham is certainly not the only Republican Senator who may face a primary. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will engage in a campaign opposite State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, while simultaneously Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) may see his state’s Attorney General, Ken Paxton, launch his own campaign.

Talk continues that Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) may also be challenged for renomination, but nothing concrete has yet developed in their states. In Florida, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) says he will oppose whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Sen. Marco Rubio upon the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State.

Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle evolve in South Carolina next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP opponents. In a strongly conservative state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever earns the GOP nomination will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November 2026.