Monthly Archives: January 2025

NC Gov. Cooper “Not Done”; Rep. Evans to Return in Jan.; After the CR Vote; Oakland’s Mayoral Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 3, 2025

Governor

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

North Carolina: Gov. Cooper “Not Done” — In his farewell address as North Carolina’s Governor, outgoing incumbent Roy Cooper (D) confirmed speculation that he has designs on running for another office. Cooper, as part of his departure speech, said he is “not done” with public service and left a broad hint that his name will again be on a ballot.

The unanswered question is whether Gov. Cooper will challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026 or begin to prepare a long range campaign for President in 2028. It is apparent that Cooper will be a part of at least one of those political endeavors.

House

PA-3: Rep. Evans Looking to Return in January — Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), who has not been voting in the House since May because he suffered a stroke, announced that he has recovered to the point of returning to work in January. Despite not being able to fully serve for months, Rep. Evans was unopposed for re-election to a 5th term in November. Prior to being elected to Congress, Evans served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives for 35 years.

CR Vote: Quarter of GOP No Votes Not Returning — A significant number of the Republican House members who opposed the final continuing resolution package are not returning to the body in January.

Two members, Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN) and John Curtis (R-UT), were elected to the Senate in November. Three, Reps. Bob Good (R-VA), Dan Bishop (R-NC), and Alex Mooney (R-WV), lost races for re-election (Good), state Attorney General (Bishop), and US Senate (Mooney). Since the election, Bishop has been nominated to serve as President-Elect Trump’s Director of the Office of Management & Budget.

Three more individuals, Reps. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Greg Lopez (R-CO), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT), are retiring from the House. Lesko was elected to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in November. Lopez won a special election when then-Rep. Ken Buck (R) resigned but did not run for a full term.

Cities

Oakland, CA: Special Election Mayoral Candidate Speculation — Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled by the voters on Nov. 5, and the Oakland City Council has set April 15 for the replacement election. Already, some prominent names are surfacing as potential candidates.

The first is outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate earlier in the year and as a result risked her US House seat. Another is former NFL and University of California at Berkeley football star Marshawn Lynch, who has also been mentioned as a potential contender. Neither individual has yet confirmed interest in running, but both would be formidable candidates.

The current interim Mayor, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas (D), will not be a candidate in the special election. She was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 5 and will be assuming her new position at the beginning of the year.

Lara Trump Out in Florida;
Vance Senate Replacement Update

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

Senate

Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump announced before Christmas that she is removing herself from consideration to replace Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio as Senator in Florida, and there are new signals emerging about who will succeed Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance via similar appointment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will appoint a new Florida Senator upon Rubio being confirmed as Secretary of State. Therefore, expect an individual who is close to DeSantis to be chosen. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, and ex-state House Speaker Jose Olivo are possible Rubio successors. DeSantis says he will announce his choice sometime in January.

Sen. Rubio will likely be one of the first Trump nominees confirmed since his position is one of the more important and the approval process before his 99 colleagues is expected to progress smoothly. There is little suggestion that he will lose any Republican votes and is likely to attract some crossover Democratic support.

Possibly, a reason for Ms. Trump’s withdrawal from consideration is an understanding that Gov. DeSantis is headed in another direction. He certainly will pick someone who has a campaign background and the ability to raise funds. Ms. Trump fit the bill concerning both of those qualifications but is not a Florida political insider. Ms. Trump hails from North Carolina and the Eric Trump family has lived in Florida for only a short time.

Whoever Gov. DeSantis selects will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term. Therefore, the new Senator will be in heavy fundraising mode for a full four-year period since Florida, the state with the third largest population, is a very expensive place in which to campaign.

Ohio — The Ohio appointment is interesting in that the top prospects are all saying they instead want to run in the state’s open Governor’s contest. Originally, it appeared that both Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost were thought to be the top appointment contenders. Both had already announced they were running for Governor and each reiterated he wanted to stay in the race.

Another potential appointment, Secretary of State Frank LaRose who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, is also expressing interest in the Governor’s race. LaRose is thought of a long-shot appointment since he is well to the right of Gov. Mike DeWine, therefore it’s unlikely that the latter man would look in the Secretary’s direction.

Recent indications, however, suggest that Lt. Gov. Husted could still become Gov. DeWine’s choice for the Senate seat if Husted would change his intention and accept the position. Appointing Husted would make sense because it would save the Republicans from enduring a difficult and potentially divisive gubernatorial primary principally between he and Yost.

As in Florida, the new Ohio Senator will have to run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 when the seat comes in-cycle for its six-year term. Therefore, it would behoove the Republicans to have a candidate who is experienced in running statewide campaigns and has the type of fundraising base that can sustain him or her through what will be a very expensive four-year political period, particularly if outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) decides to run in either 2026, 2028, or both.

In Brown’s unsuccessful re-election bid this year, he became the second most prolific fundraiser of all Senate candidates, attracting over $103 million in cycle financial receipts. Therefore, GOP fundraising would become an even greater priority if Brown becomes the new Senator’s opponent.

One group essentially disqualified from receiving a Senate appointment in either Florida and Ohio are Republican US House members. Already down a potential three seats until special elections are held due to Trump Administration nominations, the scant Republican majority cannot afford further leakage. Therefore, neither Governor will choose a Representative for the Senate appointment.