Monthly Archives: January 2025

Ramaswamy Up Big in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Surprising new data was just released regarding the open Ohio Governor’s race, thus giving more credibility to Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed campaign.

A late January Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey of the Ohio Republican electorate (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead.

Ramaswamy just resigned from President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he was serving as co-chair with Elon Musk, in order to return to Ohio with the reported intent of embarking on a gubernatorial campaign.

In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2 percent margin, respectively, according to the Fabrizio Lee results.

The Governor’s race has been at the heart of the Ohio political spectrum and figured prominently in the selection of a Senator to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.

Gov. Mike DeWine chose Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) for the Senate seat, though it apparently took some convincing before he accepted the position. Husted had been planning for years to run for Governor when DeWine’s final term comes to an end. Therefore, the 2026 election looked to begin with a Republican primary battle between Husted and Yost, which was expected to be hard fought and potentially divisive.

The open Senate seat drastically changed the picture. With Sen. Husted having to run to fill the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full term in 2028, he is out of the Governor’s race. This gave AG Yost and State Treasurer Robert Sprague the opportunity of battling in the GOP primary for the right to succeed Gov. DeWine as the party nominee.

The Ramaswamy potential entry changes the political outlook yet again, especially with this new data posting him to a very large and surprising lead. Independently wealthy, Ramaswamy will have as much money as he needs to run a strong campaign. Therefore, we can expect an intense GOP primary battle.

At this point, the only Democrat to so far announce her gubernatorial candidacy is former Ohio Health Department director and physician Amy Acton.

It is likely others will soon follow. Those Democrats mentioned as potential statewide contenders are the mayors of Ohio’s three largest cities: Andy Ginther in Columbus, Cleveland’s Justin Bibb, and Cincinnati chief executive Aftab Pureval. State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and ex-Congressman and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan are also frequently mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates.

Though Ohio is voting more Republican in recent elections – President Trump carried the state three times with an average win margin of 9.1 percent and Ohio has now elected two Republican Senators, for example; the Democrats are still expected to make a maximum effort to convert this office in 2026.

The Senate race will obviously also factor into the statewide political picture. The major question surrounds the status of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who was defeated for re-election in November. While he has been more closely associated with running again for the Senate since there will now be a special election to fill the balance of the Husted term, there is also some speculation that he could run for Governor.

Sen. Brown had always been viewed as someone who could attract Republican votes even though he is unabashedly liberal. That aura was certainly punctured when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno in November by just over 3.6 percentage points after spending $103 million just through his individual campaign committee. Despite his loss, it is clear that Brown would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate either for the Senate or Governor.

Ohio will again be a major political battleground, and we can expect to see a great deal of activity coming from the Buckeye State throughout the 2026 election cycle.

Virginia Poll Projects Sen. Warner Leading over Gov. Youngkin

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mark Warner (D) | Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven-point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (Dec. 18, 2024 – Jan. 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period’s length reduces the accuracy figure and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.

The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38 percent on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16 percent. This suggests that Sen. Warner’s support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin’s backing among Republicans, but even these numbers are not supported in other similar surveys as detected for the open 2025 Governor’s race.

Furthermore, an incumbent Senator only commanding 16 percent of the Independent voting segment is abnormally low, and likely another reason to question the overall reliability of this VCU survey.

It is also important to note that neither Sen. Warner nor Gov. Youngkin have announced their 2026 Senate candidacy. It is presumed that Sen. Warner will seek a fourth term, but no formal announcement has been made to date. Speculation has been relatively heavy about Youngkin running for the Senate, but the Governor has yet to acknowledge interest in such a race. He is also rumored to be looking toward a 2028 presidential run, and if so, challenging Sen. Warner will not likely be his next political move.

The VCU pollsters also tested the open 2025 Governor’s campaign and find former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, at this point the consensus Democratic presumptive nominee, and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the presumptive Republican nominee posting similar partisan numbers as found in the Senate race.

According to the VCU results, Spanberger would lead the Lieutenant Governor, 44-34 percent. It is here where we can draw a direct comparison with other recent surveys. For example, three other polls conducted during the period beginning Jan. 6-20 reveal much different results.

The most recent survey, from the co/efficient polling firm (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely Virginia voters; live interview & text), sees the two gubernatorial candidates tied at 40 percent apiece.

Christopher Newport University tested the Virginia electorate over the Jan. 6-13 period (806 registered Virginia voters; live interview) and found Spanberger recording a five percentage point advantage, 44-39 percent.

Earlier, Emerson College surveyed the Commonwealth just after the first of the year (Jan. 6-8; 1,000 registered Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques) and they arrived at a ballot test conclusion similar to co/efficient’s results, with Spanberger edging Earle-Sears, 42-41 percent.

Therefore, the VCU survey conducted of adults and not registered or likely voters, seems to be an outlier because three other polls conducted within the same sampling period with more refined respondent universes project much closer results.

Whether a Warner-Youngkin Senate race materializes remains to be seen. If the contest does form, we can count on seeing a much closer contest than the VCU poll suggests, and one that would likely go down to the wire. The current prevailing wisdom among Virginia politicos, however, is that such a challenge campaign is unlikely to form.

The more likely Senate scenario sees Sen. Warner seeking a fourth term and easily winning re-election without facing a major Republican opponent.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to Retire; Florida Special Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D)

Saying, “I always thought there would be a time that I would step aside and pass the reins for the next generation,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year. This is the first surprise political decision of the new political cycle.

The move is reminiscent of the 2024 election cycle, when another Michigan Senator, Debbie Stabenow (D), became the first incumbent to announce that she would retire. Sen. Peters, 66, also said that he “…never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life.” The Senator’s comments suggest that he would venture into another type of livelihood potentially in the private sector.

The Peters retirement makes Michigan the political hotbed of the early 2026 election cycle. Not only will we see a competitive open Senate race here, as was the case in 2024, but the open Governor’s contest could feature a wild three-way political battle largely because Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his candidacy as an Independent.

The Duggan entry enhances Republican prospects to win the Governor’s race because their nominee could take advantage of a split in the Democratic coalition, thus allowing the GOP candidate to win with plurality support. Until the coming election, Duggan had been a Democrat and is, of course, known as such in the state’s largest city where he has won three at-large elections.

Hosting two major competitive statewide races will certainly change the Michigan political landscape since many officeholders from both parties could enter each of these campaigns. In addition to Duggan entering the Governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) last week declared for the Democratic Party nomination.

Turning to the Republicans, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has been making serious moves to enter the Governor’s race but has yet to formally announce his intentions.

Now, we can expect other statewide officials and US House members to be assessing their chances for what will be two major statewide campaigns with national implications. Watch for Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest to make a move for one of the two slots, probably Governor. Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is another who could be well positioned to make a move toward running for Governor or now Senate.

Within the Democratic congressional delegation, look for Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and possibly Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) to test the statewide political waters. Early reports suggest that former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is also beginning to study his potential of competing in an open Michigan Senate contest.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election by just three-tenths of one percentage point must be considered at the top of the 2026 Senate prospect lists. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who lost to Sen. Peters in 2020 with a small 49.9 – 48.2 percent vote margin and is already being discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, is likely to again consider running statewide. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is another GOP House member who will probably analyze his prospects for one of the statewide races.

Sen. Peters began his elected office career by winning a seat on the Rochester Hills City Council in 1991. He was then elected to the state Senate and US House before winning the US Senate seat in 2014, succeeding 36-year veteran Sen. Carl Levin (D) who chose not to seek a seventh term.

Florida Special Election Results

As expected, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, bearing endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily won the 1st District special Republican primary, which is the first step toward replacing resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Patronis captured 66 percent of the vote against nine Republican opponents. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, Gay Valimont.

In the Atlantic coastal 6th CD, also as expected, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an overwhelming winner in this special Republican primary election. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine had the public support of President Trump and Sen. Scott, among many other GOP leaders. He topped the field of two opponents with an 83 percent vote total. Sen. Fine is now a heavy favorite to win the special general election.

Both the 1st and 6th District special general elections are scheduled for April 1.

Florida’s Special Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Special Primaries

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz | Former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz

Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees today, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Donald Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced his nomination for the US Attorney General’s position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.

Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Gaetz are scheduled for today.

The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida’s northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida’s safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today’s special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.

Vying for the party nomination are 10 candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state’s 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today’s vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Patronis secured his top endorsements.

Assuming victory tonight, Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The situation in the state’s 6th District is just as clear. There, state Sen. Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today’s special Republican primary. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more elected area officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today’s election.

The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State’s Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.

FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th safest Republican House seat.

Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight’s winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.

Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

NY Rep. Torres Explains Dems’ Loss

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 24, 2025

2024 Election

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political analysts are saying that the 2024 election could prove to be the launching pad of a national political realignment.

The change in voting patterns, particularly among the working class, minorities, youth, and the highly educated, could be suggesting that we will see a different electoral paradigm develop should the 2024 result prove to be something more than a historical anomaly.

The Free Press news site published an op-ed from New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres earlier this week entitled: “The Rising Democratic Coalition Fell. Now What?

The Representative’s piece analyzes why the Democrats lost the 2024 election and how the party can return to its winning ways.

In the op-ed, Rep. Torres highlights how President Donald Trump made inroads in minority communities, and particularly those within the Empire State’s 15th Congressional District, which he represents.

Torres illustrates that his Bronx-anchored district, which is approximately 90 percent minority (of the combined minority voting age population, the percentage breakdown is as follows: 51.4 percent Hispanic; 42.4 percent Black; 4.3 percent Asian; 3.2 percent Other), saw a 22 percent increase in turnout for Donald Trump in 2024 compared to Barack Obama’s re-election performance in 2012. In that year, President Obama received 96 percent of the vote from the precincts that today comprise the 15th CD, while in this election Kamala Harris dropped to a support figure of 74 percent.

Rep. Torres describes Trump’s performance in his district and others like it as being more impressive than the end result in the Rust Belt where the President “connected with” the working class whites from that region.

Torres says: “[President Trump’s] most improbable and formidable feat lies in chipping away at the blue wall in urban America. Few places saw a more impressive swing toward Trump in 2024 than my own deeply Democratic congressional district in the Bronx.”

The Congressman explains his reasoning in the following paragraphs:

The original sin of the new left is that it speaks for people of color without actually speaking to them—and listening. For if the new left actually spoke to people of color, it would never embrace movements like #DefundThePolice, it would never use terms like Latinx or Latine, and it would never have kept the Biden administration from acting decisively to secure the border in the face of an overwhelming migrant crisis that, in the end, cost us the election.

Listening to working-class people of color means unshackling ourselves from self-anointed socialist saviors who speak falsely in their name.

There is a difference between the beliefs of communities of color and the beliefs projected onto those communities by elites. The pattern of mistaking the latter for the former is what has made the Democratic Party lose touch with working-class voters of all backgrounds. (Full story here: The Free Press)

It is probable that we will soon see Torres put his ideas to work in a New York statewide campaign. It is no secret that he is testing the political waters for a 2026 Democratic primary challenge against Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Writing such an article is another signal that Rep. Torres is preparing a gubernatorial run with a strategy of moving closer to the political center in contrast to Gov. Hochul positioning herself on the party’s left flank. While Rep. Torres would be an attractive candidate in a New York general election, it will be most interesting to see if he can win a Democratic primary without being the most liberal contender in the race.

The odds of Torres winning the party nomination may be a bit better than in years past, however. In addition to Gov. Hochul’s low job approval rating, Donald Trump’s 2024 enhanced performance in the state versus the support numbers he garnered in 2020 suggest the Congressman may see a more hospitable electorate.

New York could be on the threshold of at least incremental change. Trump improved his standing in all 51 voting entities when comparing his 2024 performance to that of 2020, but none was stronger (net 11-point increase) than the state of his birth.