Tag Archives: Wisconsin

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Pre-Trump Assassination Attempt Polling Metrics; Sen. Baldwin Up & Down in Wisconsin Race; A Very Close IL-11 Race; Dead Heat in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 15, 2024

President

Polling Benchmarks: Pre-Trump Assassination Attempt — At the beginning today of the Republican National Committee, the nation is recovering from a near miss — Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life. This, plus the traditional convention polling “bump” that typically helps the party nominee, should soon place the targeted Republican well ahead of President Joe Biden in national general election surveys, but how long will the momentum last?

We start by looking at the current polls, noting that all of the succeeding national surveys were taken prior to the assassination attempt. In five studies conducted during the July 7-11 period from five different pollsters (Fox News; NBC News; NPR/Marist College; ABC News/Washington Post; and Noble Predictive Insights) Trump is holding leads of between one and three points in the national ballot tests. It is from these points against which next week’s polls should be measured.

Senate

Wisconsin: Another Different Result — The Wisconsin Senate race polling had, for the most part, been stagnant for many weeks with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) holding a significant lead over GOP businessman Eric Hovde. In the past two weeks, however, a plethora of five surveys were released including the most recent poll report coming from North Star Opinion Research for the American Greatness organization. This study (July 6-10; 600 likely Wisconsin voters; live interview) sees Sen. Baldwin returning to an eight-point lead over Hovde, 49-41 percent.

In all, since June 18 to July 11, Sen. Baldwin has held leads as high as seven and eight points, but then slips all the way back into a tie with her Republican challenger before soaring again. Hovde led in none of the polls.

House

IL-11: Surprisingly Close — Illinois’ 11th Congressional District is an outer suburban seat located west of Chicago that begins in the Crystal Lake region to the north and moves south to include the cities of Naperville and Aurora. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians set the partisan lean at 51.8D – 43.4R. President Biden carried the district in 2020 with a 57-41 percent margin. Eight-term Rep. Bill Foster (D-Naperville) won his only race under the redistricted 11th CD with a 56-44% margin.

Therefore, it is surprising to see little-known music school founder Jerry Evans (R) already trailing by only a 41-34 percent margin according to a Cygnal poll (July 2-3; 309 likely IL-11 general election voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Evans campaign. It is these types of polls currently surfacing that show competitive races developing in what should be safely Democratic seats that are largely the reason behind so many House Democrats coming forward to call for President Biden to withdraw from the race.

Governor

Delaware: Dead Heat Dem Primary — Candidate filing for the open governor’s race closed last week, and already we see a dead heat developing before the Sept. 10 Democratic primary. Slingshot Polling (conducted for the Citizens for a New Delaware Way Super PAC; July 5-9; 446 registered Delaware Democratic voters) forecasts a 27-27 percent tie between Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer with National Wildlife Federation president Collin O’Mara only reaching the seven percent support mark. The Citizens for a New Delaware Way is an organization attempting to defeat Hall-Long.

Democrats will hold the position in the general election, so winning the open Democratic primary is tantamount to claiming the state house in November.

Polls Say Biden Better Than Others vs. Trump, But Biden Losing in Solid Dem California District; Split Poll in Wisconsin; Dead Heat in AZ-1

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 11, 2024

President

Trump vs. Biden – how the candidates match up.

National Polls: Biden, Better Than Others — Emerson College, after releasing their swing state results two days ago, publicized their latest national data (July 7-8; 1,370 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques) that tested former President Donald Trump against President Joe Biden, and then individually opposite other supposed potential replacement presidential nominees.

Paired with President Biden in the head-to-head ballot test, Trump posts a 46-43 percent advantage. If Vice President Kamala Harris were the party nominee, Trump would lead by a much larger 49-43 percent. Opposite California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Trump advantage is 48-40 percent, and it extends to 48-38 percent if Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) were his opponent.

Once again, we see further evidence that despite the negative talk surrounding President Biden since the CNN presidential debate, he still appears to be the Democrats’ strongest option.

Rep. Mark Takano: Biden Losing in His District — Reports are circulating that California Rep. Mark Takano (D-Riverside) is quoting from a poll of his CA-39 district that apparently shows President Biden losing among the congressman’s constituents. Assuming the accuracy of the poll, this would be a significant data point. President Biden carried the district 62.0 – 35.8 percent in 2020, and Rep. Takano won re-election here in 2022 with 57.7 percent of the vote in the post-redistricting 39th District.

CA-39 sits wholly within Riverside County and contains the city of Riverside. It is a largely minority district. The Voting Age Population figure for Hispanics is 58.5 percent as compared to 22.4 percent for non-Hispanic Whites. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+23. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 61.6D – 36.4R partisan lean based upon vote history. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank CA-39 as the 111th-safest seat in the country. Though national polling doesn’t suggest that the president is in dire political straights, a poll such as this in a safe Democratic congressional district may.

Senate

Wisconsin: Another Split Poll — Again, we see the familiar pattern from a survey where former President Trump is leading in a state as is the Democratic Senate candidate. A Republican polling firm and a Democratic survey research operation again combined efforts to conduct a Wisconsin poll for the AARP organization (Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research; June 28-July 2; 1,052 likely Wisconsin voters; live interview & text). They found former President Trump leading President Biden by a 44-38 percent margin. (The CNN presidential debate was June 27.) When moving to the Senate race, however, it is the Democratic candidate, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who leads by a similar margin, 50-45 percent.

This pattern of Trump running well ahead of the Republican Senate candidate is present in several other states. This could be due to the voters being more familiar with the incumbent Democrat, or potentially the participants deliberately splitting their ticket so as not to give Trump too much power.

It will be interesting to watch what the Republican strategists do to break this syndrome, and whether their approach will work. For the GOP to maximize their opportunities on a favorable national Senate map, they must secure multiple conversion seats in order to protect themselves against favorable Democratic maps in the 2026 and 2028 election cycles.

House

AZ-1: Dead Heat Dem Primary — Arizona’s 1st Congressional District will feature a very tight contest between Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and whomever the Democrats nominate from their crowded Aug. 6 primary election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st CD as R+7, but the Daily Kos Elections statisticians project the seat as the 18th most vulnerable in the Republican Conference. President Biden won here in 2020 by a narrow 50.1 – 48.6 percent margin.

A recent Noble Predictive Insights survey of the 1st District likely Democratic primary voters (June 25-27; 420 respondents; text) see ballot test results that place almost all of the candidates in position to win the upcoming party primary. The eventual winner will move into a toss-up general election campaign against Rep. Schweikert who won re-election two years ago with only a 50.4 – 49.6 percent margin against businessman Jevin Hodge. Hodge chose not to seek a rematch despite his strong showing in the 2022 campaign.

Former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni and ex-state representative and physician Amish Shah are tied for first place with just 16 percent of the vote apiece according to the Noble poll. Following closely with 14 percent is former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, the widow of late Attorney General Grant Woods (D). Investment banker Conor O’Callaghan then trails with eight percent support. A full 35 percent say they are undecided. Therefore, this primary will become a political shootout in the closing weeks.

RFK Jr. Off Colorado Ballot;
Cruz’s Lead Dwindles in Texas; Baldwin Up in Wisconsin; Mondaire Jones Fails to Win Nomination

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 10, 2024

President

2024 Libertarian Party nominee, Chase Oliver.

Colorado: National Libertarians Rebuff State — The Colorado Libertarian Party’s plan to replace the Libertarian national nominee, Chase Oliver, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on their state ballot has been thwarted. The national office has already sent the official nomination papers to the Colorado Secretary of State designating Oliver as the party’s nominee. Colorado authorities have declared the form, signed by the national Libertarian Party Secretary, as legal and valid. Therefore, it will be Oliver, and not Kennedy, who will appear on the Colorado ballot in November.

Senate

Texas: Cruz’s Lead Dwindles in New Poll — The Manhattan Institute conducted a poll of likely Texas voters (June 25-27; 600 likely Texas general election voters; live interview & text) asking electoral questions and probing the respondents on their positions involving transgender issues.

While the respondents self-identified as conservative by a 44-21 percent division over liberal, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) could only muster a 46-43 percent lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). This, while former President Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden within the same polling universe, 45-36 percent.

Most of the disparity came from Sen. Cruz’s upside-down favorability index, which found a nine-point deficit when comparing those who have a favorable opinion of the two-term senator to those who do not (42:51 percent). While Rep. Allred has a positive favorability index, 33:21 percent, almost half of the respondents (45 percent) stated they are unfamiliar with the congressman.

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Expands Advantage — SoCal Research, polling for the On Point Politics blog (June 30-July 2; 490 registered Wisconsin voters) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) expanding her previously smaller lead to a double digit margin, 50-38 percent, over businessman Eric Hovde (R).

The poll, however, seems flawed. First, only 490 registered voters were sampled, a small number for a state with eight congressional districts. Second, the survey’s respondent universe was comprised of 37 percent self-identified Republicans and only 32 percent who aligned themselves with the Democratic Party. A total of 30 percent consider themselves Independents. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, this split appears too favorably Republican when compared with the electorate’s voting history, one that consistently delivers razor thin general election margins.

Surprisingly, such a sample gives Democrat Baldwin her best numbers since mid-May. For a Republican-favorable sample, this ballot test appears inconsistent. Comparing to the presidential contest, which is consistent with other polling, former President Trump records a one-point, 44-43 percent, edge over President Biden.

House

NY-17: Jones Loses Working Families Ballot Line — After a recount of the New York Working Families Party 17th Congressional District primary, candidate Anthony Frascone, as formally announced Monday, has officially won the party nomination and will appear on the November ballot.

Former New York Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones was expected to win the nomination but failed to do so. In New York, the minor parties can award their ballot line to a major party candidate.

The fact that Jones will not have votes coming from the Working Families Party line will likely benefit freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), who is fighting to win re-election in a Hudson Valley-anchored district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7 and carries a 56.6D – 41.3R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. In 2022, Lawler upset then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) with a slight 49.3 – 48.6 percent victory margin.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Gaining Dem Leader Support — Over the July 4th holiday, St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) endorsed Rep. Cori Bush’s (D-St. Louis) bid for renomination on Aug. 6. She faces a strong challenge from former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell. Rep. Bush is viewed as highly vulnerable in the Democratic primary. Unlike when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was denied renomination on June 25, the House Democratic leadership is coming to Rep. Bush’s aide in united fashion. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), and House Democratic Conference Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA), all signed a group endorsement statement for the congresswoman.

While Rep. Bowman’s defeat appeared evident for several weeks, the St. Louis Democratic battle looks to be a much tighter contest. Heavy outside spending is again present in this race, but not to the degree that we saw at a commensurate point against Rep. Bowman. This is still a battle to watch early next month. Rep. Bush, while vulnerable, is in a stronger political position than her fallen “Squad” colleague.

Surprising Swing State Polling

SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Polling

Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the July 4th holiday break. The survey results raised eyebrows in several ways.

Morning Consult conducted the studies in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They surveyed voters from July 1-4 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the sampling period was extended to a fifth day, expanding the interview time to July 1-5.

The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). In each case, the respondent universe was selected through a stratified sampling process and the individuals answered the survey questions online.

In each state, the pollsters tested President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and usually a combination of the other independent or minor party candidates, Jill Stein (Green Party), Dr. Cornel West (Independent), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). The pollsters also asked a follow-up question that isolated Biden and Trump in a one-on-one pairing.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis indicated that the debate, contrary to the opinion of many television news pundits and several Democratic officials who are calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race, has changed little in terms of the political horse race among the states that will largely determine the November outcome.

This may or may not be the case, and further research is needed to better determine where the national election stands. Though President Biden was detected as leading in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, over 55 percent from the aggregate seven-state sample stated their belief that he should withdraw from the campaign. This number includes 58 percent responding in such a manner from the Independent segment and 29 percent who self-identify as Democratic participants.

Conversely, former President Trump hit an all-time high in a Pennsylvania survey, as Bloomberg/Morning Consult detected a seven-point advantage when the two presumptive nominees were tested in a head-to-head question. Staying with the Pennsylvania head-to-head, the Trump support number reached 51 percent, which is the only such result for either candidate within the whole seven-state survey series. In two other states, Arizona and Nevada, Trump reached the 48 percent plateau on the head-to-head question. President Biden reached as high as 48 percent in only one state, Michigan, again in response to the head-to-head question.

In Arizona, Trump led Biden by seven percentage points when the independent and minor party candidates were included. His lead dropped to three points in the head-to-head question. The seven points represented an improvement here for Trump, though he has led in all 20 Arizona polls conducted since Jan. 1.

The Georgia numbers still favored Trump but appeared to be down a bit from other recent surveys. As in Arizona, Trump has led in every poll conducted here (17) since the first of this year.

Michigan has been back and forth all year, usually by a point or two. This Bloomberg/ Morning Consult poll, however, stakes Biden to one of his better showings, leading Trump by six points within the multiple candidate field and five in the head-to-head pairing.

Nevada is the third state where Trump has led or been tied in all 2024 surveys (17). In the Bloomberg/MC poll, his numbers are still strong. Within the multiple candidate field, Trump holds a six-point lead as compared to a plus-3 margin in the head-to-head.

North Carolina is another state where Trump continues to poll well. In the Bloomberg/MC study, he leads the multiple candidate field by two points, and three over Biden in the head-to-head. This from a state where he led in only 25 percent of the 2020 polls yet carried the final total by just over a percentage point.

As previously mentioned, Trump scores his best head-to-head number of the cycle (plus-7) in the Bloomberg/MC Pennsylvania poll. From the multiple candidate field, his lead is three percentage points.

Wisconsin is the other state where Biden forges a current lead according to the Bloomberg/MC data. Here, the president has a two-point edge within the multiple candidate field and three over Trump in the head-to-head.

As we have seen, several of the data segments produced unusual patterns, meaning more information is needed to obtain a better post-debate picture of how the electorate is responding. Even though this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, it appears that former President Trump would convert four states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the presidency.