Tag Archives: Wisconsin

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

House Races Under the Radar

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024

2024 Election

US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.

While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.

• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.

• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.

Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.

Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.

WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.

Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.

Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.

On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.

The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.

Post-Trump/Harris Debate Polling; New Ads Debut; Alabama Governor’s Race News; Pollster Accuracy Rankings Released

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo — Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a post-debate flash poll (Sept. 11; 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states; online) and compared the results to their previous poll conducted “last week,” before the debate (5,600 likely voters from seven swing states; online), and claim tha actually gained support after the forum.

Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48-46 percent when minor party candidates were included and 50-47 percent from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question. The pre-debate data found the two tied at 46 percent apiece in the multi-candidate configuration and 48-48 percent from the head-to-head question.

Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week when we see the next round of publicly released polling.

House

Congressional Leadership Fund: Launches Series of Ads — The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target and not what are commonly called “cookie cutter” messages where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.

The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).

Governor

Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy? — Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.

In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.

Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.

Another possible scenario, should the senator decide to run for governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.

Polling

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Pollster Rankings — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.

The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

New Senate Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

A new polling series involving several Senate races unveils some new interesting data patterns.

Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, during the period of Aug. 25-28, the Emerson pollsters queried an aggregate total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within this group, we saw serious new movement in the Wolverine and Badger States.

In Michigan, which has consistently featured a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41 percent, according to the Emerson data. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R) Emerson ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48 percent.

In most of this year’s polling, the Michigan race has returned close results, and routinely followed the pattern set in the presidential contest. In 2024, this type of trend was unusual because the other competitive states consistently found the Republican candidate running substantially behind the percentages that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump was posting.

This is not the first poll, however, that projected a separation between the two Michigan candidates. Just before Emerson went into the field with their polling series, the TIPP poll, surveying for the American Greatness organization (Aug. 20-22; 741 likely Michigan general election voters; online), found Slotkin leading by 10 percentage points, or four more than the Emerson result. At the time, the TIPP poll appeared as an anomaly; instead, the benchmark may have proved the beginning of a new trend.

The one-point Wisconsin spread Emerson finds between Sen. Baldwin and Hovde is much different than any other poll conducted since February with the exception of one survey taken at the end of June and the beginning of July. The data from that poll, which the Remington Research Group conducted, found the two contenders deadlocked in a 48-48 percent tie.

According to the Real Clear Politics data and policy site, Sen. Baldwin’s mean average lead is 6.35 percent from the 24 Wisconsin Senate polls that have been conducted this year, and the median average is seven points. Within the 24 polls, her highest margin was 12 points, reached twice, with the low being the aforementioned Remington Research tie.

It remains to be seen if the Emerson Wisconsin poll is itself an anomaly or the beginning of a new close trend.

The other Emerson results return numbers often seen in other studies. In Arizona, the Emerson data finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 49-42 percent. In the other four August Grand Canyon State surveys that four different polling entities conducted: Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Noble Predictive Insights, and the New York Times/Siena College, Rep. Gallego chronologically led Lake by 15, 8, 7, and 9 percentage points.

The Emerson Nevada numbers, which show a 10-point spread for incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) over her opponent, businessman and Afghan War disabled veteranSam Brown (R), are consistent with the three other August Silver State polls. Here, the group of pollsters is consistent with those found in Arizona except for not including Noble Predictive Insights. In these surveys, the Rosen margin was 14, 11, and 9 percentage points.

The final state in the Emerson series is Pennsylvania. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a fourth term. Here, Emerson finds Sen. Casey and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) locked in a low single-digit battle, separated by four percentage points.

Pennsylvania has seen a greater degree of August polling than the other states. In this race, pollsters have surveyed the Keystone State electorate a total of seven times. In addition to the previously mentioned pollsters, Quinnipiac University, Franklin & Marshall, and the Cook Political Report also surveyed the Senate race.

In the early part of the month, Sen. Casey had opened a large lead over McCormick, to the tune of 13, 12, and 14 percentage points. From the polls ending Aug. 8 to the present, the contest has tightened. Including two Emerson College polls, the margin between Casey and McCormick had lessened to 4, 3, 4, and 5 points, chronologically. This suggests a clear move in the contest and now becomes a campaign where the leader consistently posts only low single-digit advantages.

We can expect to see much more data coming from each of these states before the Nov. 5 election. All of these contests will have an important role in determining which party controls the next Senate majority.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

Primary Results: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Primary Results

Overview: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin nominated candidates yesterday while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party chose a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). Little in the way of competition was found in Connecticut and Vermont, meaning all of the incumbents easily advanced into the general election.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) captured over 90 percent of the vote in her Democratic primary and is a heavy favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, former NBA professional basketball player Royce White, who defeated banker Joe Fraser and six other contenders to claim his party’s nomination.

After 2nd District Republican Taylor Rahm dropped his congressional bid to join the Trump campaign staff, it became evident that attorney Joe Teirab would be the Republican to challenge Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in what could become a competitive general election.

Though the safely Democratic 3rd District was open because Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) chose not to seek re-election, state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Deephaven) surprisingly found herself unopposed in the party primary. She will be a strong favorite to defeat Republican former judge and legislator Tad Jude in the general election.

Though facing credible opposition, polling was projecting that three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) would score a big victory. Her 56 percent vote total was certainly enough to clinch a comfortable win but not as wide as the pre-election polling had projected. She will easily win the general election to secure a fourth two-year term.

In the expansive western state 7th District, Rep. Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), who lost the official party endorsement at the Republican state convention earlier in the year, rebounded to score a primary win that was just short of a 2:1 drubbing over businessman Steve Boyd. Fishbach will easily win her third term in November.

• Wisconsin: With Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) running unopposed in the Democratic primary, Republican businessman pounded his two minor GOP opponents to post an 87 percent victory percentage. Sen. Baldwin is the clear favorite to win the general election, but Hovde will be able to keep pace in advertising with his strong self-funded media campaign.

In the competitive 3rd Congressional District, business owner Rebecca Cooke, who had strong outside support, recorded large percentages in the rural areas to overcome state Rep. Katrina Shankland’s (D-Steven’s Point) overwhelming strength in Portage County to score a 49-42 percent Democratic primary victory. Cooke will now face freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in what should be a hotly contested general election.

In the Green Bay anchored 8th CD, businessman Tony Wied, with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, slipped past former state Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) to clinch the open Republican nomination and become the heavy favorite to win the general election in November. Assuming his success, Wied will succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) in the seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+20.

• TX-18: Battling several prominent candidates before the 88 Harris County Democratic Party convention delegates, former two-term Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was chosen as the party standard bearer in the general election to replace the late US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

Turner and former city councilwoman, ex-US Senate candidate, and previous congressional contender Amanda Edwards tied on the first ballot, necessitating a runoff vote because the deadlock prevented either from securing majority support. Turner then won the runoff vote. He proceeds into the general election as a prohibitive favorite opposite Republican nominee Lana Centonze.

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.