Tag Archives: Rep. Bill Huizenga

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 14, 2025

Governor

2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Nominee Tudor Dixon (R)

The Michigan Republicans got a break. Last week’s reported announcement from 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon that she would not run for either Governor or Senator saves the Republican leadership dealing with what could have been an expensive and potentially divisive nomination fight for one of the open statewide offices.

In 2022, Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination defeating four lesser known GOP candidates after retired Detroit police chief James Craig was disqualified from participating due to insufficient petition signatures. She then lost 54-44 percent to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

This year, Dixon was considered a possible contender again for Governor or possibly the US Senate, which are simultaneously both open races for the first time in modern Michigan electoral history.

The Republican leadership is sold on returning with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, especially since he came within 19,006 votes (which was three-tenths of one percent) of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) last November. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is still a possible Senate Republican primary contender, however.

If she were to return to the campaign trail it was more likely that Dixon would have entered the Governor’s race. In that open campaign, the party leadership wants to support Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice run close Senate campaigns and then held a politically marginal congressional district for two terms.

Early polling showed Rep. James and Dixon locked in a tight contest, thereby likely producing a weakened winner regardless of who would have prevailed in a drawn-out GOP statewide primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4, 2026.

Without Dixon in the Governor’s race, Rep. James still faces former Attorney General Mike Cox, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary behind eventual winner Rick Snyder and then-Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Snyder would then serve two full terms as Michigan’s chief executive.

Also in the 2026 Republican primary race are former state House Speaker Tom Leonard and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw), along with minor candidates. Within this candidate configuration, Rep. James is the clear favorite.

The Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring two of their statewide elected office holders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Early polling gives Benson a substantial lead over Gilchrist, but this race has much time to develop, and the Lieutenant Governor has a strong Detroit political base.

The general election is interesting largely because of a strong Independent candidate’s presence and polling already detects a developing close race. Instead of running for Governor as a Democrat, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is advancing directly into the general election as an Independent candidate. With his political strength coming from the state’s largest population center, Duggan makes the general election a tight three-way contest where all major contenders have a legitimate victory path.

One would expect Mayor Duggan to draw Democratic votes away from the eventual party nominee, but early polling shows him attracting equivalent numbers from both parties. This race is expected to drastically change once the primaries are complete. Though Mayor Duggan will not have a major party ballot line in the general election, he has the advantage of having to run only one campaign. Therefore, he can bank his financial resources until political prime time.

Without Dixon and her substantial right flank political base coming into the Senate race, and if Rep. Huizenga can be convinced to run for re-election instead of statewide, and the Democrats fall into a divisive nomination battle, former Rep. Rogers would see a dream scenario unfold for his November 2026 campaign.

The Democrats, largely in the persons of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) along with state Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are potentially headed for such a contentious primary battle.

With Rogers’ now having national support and a proven track record in running a strong statewide campaign, his biggest problem that surfaced early in 2024 is likely solved. The former Congressman showed weak fundraising prowess at the beginning of the last election cycle, but such is not an issue for him in 2026, particularly if he gets a clean primary.

Polling will assuredly show this race as being close until the end, but Michigan Republicans, as they do in many other states, tend to outperform their polling support. Therefore, the Wolverine State, featuring tightly contested open Senate and Governor races, will be one of the premier political states for the 2026 election cycle.

Pennsylvania Presidential, House Primary Results; Challenger in MI-4; Changes in Virginia’s Governor Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 24, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Presidential Primary Results — Recently, there has been an uptick in President Joe Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.

While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, yesterday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded. President Biden recorded 88.8 percent in the Democratic primary, while former President Donald Trump took 82.8 percent on the Republican side.

House

Pennsylvania: House Primary Results — In the Pennsylvania congressional races, the most competitive incumbent challenge occurred in the Pittsburgh-anchored 12th District. While challenger Bhavini Patel ran a strong grassroots effort against freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale), the race ended in a projected 60.2 – 39.4 percent split in the congresswoman’s favor. A combination of a major Lee resource advantage and staying away from any emphasis on her being part of the Socialist Democratic caucus’ “Squad,” allowed her to capture a definitive renomination victory.

In terms of challenger races, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) defeated technology business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker and attorney Maria Montero to win the GOP nomination in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton anchored 7th District. Mackenzie will now advance to the general election to face three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) in what figures to be another competitive campaign. Rep. Wild has averaged only 51.5 percent of the vote in her last two elections. Yesterday’s turnout in this seat proved to be about even between the two parties.

In the 10th District that featured a competitive Democratic primary for the right to challenge veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), former local news anchor Janelle Stelson outpaced businessman Mike O’Brien and four others to claim the party nomination. Turnout favored the Republicans in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+9. Still, this is another campaign to watch in the coming general election.

MI-4: Rep. Huizenga Draws Primary Challenger — On the last day of candidate filing in Michigan, Ottawa County Republican Party chairman Brendan Muir announced that he will challenge seven-term US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in the 2024 Republican primary. This is Rep. Huizenga’s first term representing the post-redistricting 4th CD. Prior to the 2022 election, he was the 2nd District incumbent, but that seat was eliminated in reapportionment and redistricting.

Ottawa County, which houses Huizenga’s home city of Holland, is an entity housing just over 300,000 residents. The 4th District portion of Ottawa County — the municipality is split between the 3rd and 4th Districts — is the second largest voting block in the CD behind Kalamazoo County. Rep. Huizenga will be a heavy favorite both for renomination and re-election.

Governor

Virginia: Spanberger Opponent Drops Bid — Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2025 bid for governor and instead will enter what is expected to be an open contest for lieutenant governor. The move, at least for the short term, leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Cove) as unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Stoney, however, is entering a contested primary for the secondary position. State Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), a former NFL and UFL football player, also announced his bid for lieutenant governor yesterday. Sen. Rouse, also a former Virginia Beach City Councilman, was elected to the Senate in a special election in early 2023.

Brown Becoming Leading Senate GOP Candidate in Nevada; Redistricting Activist Challenges in Michigan; Kuster Stands Pat; Competition in NY-16; NC Gubernatorial Race Update

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 24, 2023

Senate

Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R)

Nevada: Brown Becoming GOP Candidate of Choice — Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), disfigured through his war injuries, is becoming the leading Nevada Republican US Senate candidate just since his official announcement on July 10.

According to published reports, he is already the leading fundraiser in the Republican field and has the endorsement of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT), the Americans for Prosperity organization, and individual senators such as Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). The eventual Republican nominee will oppose first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in the general election. For Republicans to gain the Senate majority, the Nevada seat must become a prime target.

House

MI-4: Redistricting Activist to Challenge Rep. Huizenga — Attorney Jessica Swartz (D), who was one of the prime movers behind the successful ballot initiative to convert the Michigan redistricting system to a citizens’ commission, announced that she will challenge US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) next year.

Originally, Rep. Huizenga appeared to be the odd man out as national reapportionment cost Michigan a congressional seat. The map led to he and veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R) being paired in the new southwestern Michigan’s 4th CD. However, with Rep. Upton opting for retirement after serving 36 years in the House, that ultimately left the seat to Huizenga, who was re-elected with a 54-42 percent victory percentage last November even though he had not previously represented 75 percent of the new constituency. Expect this race to draw some national attention in 2024.

NH-2: Rep. Kuster Staying Put — Saying that Democrats already have “two great candidates,” US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) said late last week that she would not enter the open governor’s race now that four-term incumbent Chris Sununu (R) has announced his retirement. It is presumed that Rep. Kuster will seek re-election to a seventh term in the House.

In her comments, Rep. Kuster was referring to Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington who are declared Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Republican former state Senate President Chuck Morse immediately announced his candidacy when Gov. Sununu made his retirement plans public. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte may also soon join the open Republican primary.

NY-16: Potential Tougher Challenger for Rep. Bowman — Last year, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) turned back two Democratic primary challengers by a 54-25-19 percent margin in what proved to be a moderately competitive campaign. This cycle, his competition may be more formidable.

Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D), who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2017 and then won a 62-38 percent re-election campaign, confirms that he is considering challenging Rep. Bowman. Prior to his election to local office, Latimer served in both the New York Assembly and state Senate. Westchester County, the population of which is just short of 1 million residents, dominates the 16th CD. A total of 91 percent of the district lies in this one county, with the remaining territory crossing into the Bronx borough.

Governor

North Carolina: New Candidate Emerges — Former state Sen. Andy Wells announced late last week that he will enter the Republican gubernatorial primary. This sets up a re-match of sorts with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. The two ran against each other in the 2020 lieutenant governor’s primary, a political battle that Robinson won by almost a 2:1 ratio. Also in the race is former Congressman Mark Walker. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro at this point is unopposed but may have opposition from former state Supreme Court justice Mike Morgan. The 2024 governor’s race is open because incumbent Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

No 2024 Re-Match in Ariz.;
MI-4 Re-Match on the Horizon; Killdeer Announces Cancer Diagnosis; Re-Election Run in WI-1

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 5, 2023

House

Arizona businessman Jevin Hodge (D)

AZ-1: No 2024 Re-Match — Arizona businessman Jevin Hodge (D), who held veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a scant 50.4 – 49.6 percent re-election victory last November, a margin of 3,195 votes that proved the 12th-closest vote spread of all US House races, said Friday that he will not return to seek a re-match in 2024.

Even without Hodge as the party nominee, the Democrats are expected to make this race a key 2024 conversion target. Rep. Schweikert, still dealing with the after-effects from the penalties for 11 House ethics violations and an official reprimand in 2020, only recorded 43 percent in a three-way 2022 Republican primary. Therefore, it is probable that the congressman will again have strong Republican and Democratic challengers next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st District as R+7. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.9R – 47.5D.

MI-4: Re-Match on the Horizon — After Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) was the victim of his state losing a congressional seat in 2020 national reapportionment, he found himself paired with veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R). Upon Upton then deciding to retire after serving 18 terms, Rep. Huizenga was viewed as a lock for re-election. Surprisingly, however, his victory margin was only 54-42 percent against Marine Corps veteran Joseph Alonso (D) who spent just $36,159 on his campaign.

Last Friday, Alonso announced he will return for a re-match in 2024, and we can expect the Democrats to take a more serious look at his candidacy and the new 4th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, and the newly adjusted Dave’s Redistricting App calculations casts a 51.8R – 45.1D partisan lean. Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a run for the state’s open Senate seat but is ultimately expected to seek re-election next year.

MI-8: Rep. Killdeer Announces Cancer Diagnosis — Michigan Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) made public last week his cancer diagnosis, but the prognosis for full recovery post-treatment is strong. At this point, the congressman is expected to seek re-election next year. In 2024, he turned back a competitive challenge from former news anchorman Paul Junge (R) with a 53-43 percent margin.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-8 as R+1, but Dave’s Redistricting App, in their adjusted post 2022 election ratings, calculates the partisan lean at 51.0D – 46.2R.

WI-1: Rep. Steil “Plans” to Seek Re-Election — During an interview last Friday, House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) says he is “planning” to seek re-election to his southern Wisconsin US House district and not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year. The senator is expected to formally announce her re-election campaign later this month.

The statewide odd-year election could potentially change Rep. Steil’s mind, however. Should Democrat Janet Protasiewicz win the state Supreme Court election and flip the judicial panel to a Democratic majority, it is likely that immediate lawsuits will be filed to overturn the state’s congressional map. Protasiewicz has already said that she thinks the current 6R-2D federal plan is “unfair,” so it is likely that she, and the other Democratic justices, would vote to overturn the map.

If all of this happens, both Reps. Steil and freshman Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) could find their congressional districts on the partisan chopping block. At that point, talk of Rep. Steil running for the Senate could re-emerge.

Michigan GOP Senate Action; Challengers Emerge in House Races; Ex-Congressman Mulls NC Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023

Senate

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)

Michigan: GOP Senate Action Beginning — When Wolverine State Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced on Jan. 5 that she would not seek re-election in 2024, a spate of speculative activity occurred particularly among Democrats as to who may run to succeed the veteran incumbent. Despite the seemingly heightened interest level, no major candidate has yet to announce. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) was thought to be on the verge of declaring her Senate candidacy and is still expected to at some point, but she has yet to come forward.

The Republicans were quiet immediately after the Stabenow announcement, which caught many by surprise, but now increased chatter is evident. Last week, former US Rep. Mike Rogers said he is considering running, and this week speculation is surrounding potential Senate bids from Congressman Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and former US Rep. Peter Meijer. The latter man was denied renomination in the 2022 election cycle. The Michigan race promises to be highly competitive, but Democrats will be favored to win a close open seat contest.

House

CA-13: Ex-Candidate Declares Against Rep. Duarte — Fresno area financial advisor and ex-Democratic congressional candidate Phil Arballo (D) says he will return in 2024 to hopefully challenge freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the general election. The congressman recorded the 2022 election’s second-closest victory margin nationally, a 565-vote win over then-state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D).

Arballo first came on the political scene in 2020 when he challenged then-Rep. Devin Nunes (R). He raised over $5 million for that campaign but secured only 46 percent of the general election vote. He entered the 2022 race in new District 13 but failed to become a November election finalist, placing third in the jungle primary with a 17.4 percent preference total after raising $1.6 million.

The 13th District race will be a major national Democratic conversion target, so we can expect a large jungle primary field to form. At this point, there is little indication that Gray will return for a re-match.

NY-19: Field Forming to Challenge Rep. Molinaro — We’ve already seen brisk political activity in several upstate New York districts. Over the weekend, Dan Butterman (D), an insurance executive who has three times failed to win a state assembly seat, says he will join the growing field to challenge freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook). Also in the race are Democratic activist Joe Cerullo and Independent marketing executive Hal Stewart. Stronger Democratic candidates are expected to emerge.

Molinaro won the 19th District general election with a 51-49 percent victory over attorney Josh Riley (D), after the new congressman lost the special election conducted earlier in the year to replace former US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) who resigned from the House to become lieutenant governor.

In two other Upstate districts, former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D) is contemplating a comeback effort against freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the Westchester County-anchored 17th CD, and a pair of Democrats have announced their candidacies against freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in the 22nd District.

Governor

North Carolina: Former Congressman Considering Gov Race — Former Tar Heel State three-term Congressman Mark Walker (R-Greensboro), who was redistricted out of his 6th District seat and then subsequently lost a GOP US Senate primary, indicated he is now interested in running for governor next year.

Walker fared poorly in the 2022 US Senate contest, however, placing a distant third to now-Sen. Ted Budd in the Republican primary. In that race he secured only 9.2 percent of the GOP vote. In the governor’s race, Walker would face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and likely several others. Incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

It is probable that a new congressional redistricting map will be drawn to replace the current interim court map before the 2024 election. As has been the Republican map drawers’ past practice, a new plan would reconfigure one of the seats in the Greensboro area to favor a Republican candidate. Therefore, again running for the House could be another option for Walker.

CA-22 Special Election Results; Michigan Rep. Upton to Retire

California’s 22nd Congressional District

By Jim Ellis

April 7, 2022 — Voters in California’s Central Valley went to the polls Tuesday after others had mailed their ballots for the past couple of weeks to choose a replacement for resigned Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare); but, it won’t be until April 14 until we see certified results under the state’s elongated ballot-counting system. Votes can still come into county election centers through the mail but must be postmarked no later than Tuesday, April 5, in order to be counted.

The published results at this writing show former state Assembly Republican Leader and ex-Tulare County Supervisor Connie Conway leading the field of six candidates with 22,175 votes or 34.8 percent. The next closest competitor is Democrat Lourin Hubbard, a California state water official, posting 19.7 percent, or 12,546 votes. It is likely that Conway and Hubbard will advance into the special general election to be held concurrently with the California jungle primary on June 7.

The other candidates are Republican Matt Stoll with 15.1 percent (9,647 votes), Democrat Eric Garcia (15.0 percent; 9,574 votes), and Republicans Michael Maher (8.9 percent; 5,665) and Elizabeth Heng (6.5 percent; 4,119). These totals will change as more votes are counted, but the order of finish will probably remain constant. Republican candidates received 41,606 combined votes or 65.3 percent of the currently tabulated vote as compared to 22,120 (34.7 percent) for the Democratic contenders.

Fundraising was not a major factor in a race where the winner will serve in Congress only six months, because the new incumbent will have not have a place to run in the regular election under the state’s new redistricting map. Interestingly, the fundraising totals are virtually opposite of the early standings, with Heng having raised the most at $214,000 through March 16, but she languishes in last place in preliminary returns. Conway reported raising only $82,893 and Hubbard, $58,829.

The reported turnout is 63,726 voters with several thousand more ballots to be received and tabulated. As of Aug. 30, 2021, there were 415,442 registered voters in the 22nd District. At this point, the turnout is 15.3 percent but will go higher as more ballots are received and tabulated.

MI-6

With 18-term veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) facing a paired incumbent situation in a new 4th District as a result of Michigan losing a congressional seat in national reapportionment, the former House Energy & Commerce Committee chairman announced that he will retire at the end of the current congressional session. Upton’s decision brings to an end what will be a 36-year career in the US House.

Continue reading →

Redistricting-Forced
Contested Pairings

By Jim Ellis

March 25, 2022 — Redistricting has largely been responsible for six sets of congressional pairings — that is where two incumbents are forced to compete against each other in one new district. Each party sees three intra-party pairings, with the first being decided in West Virginia on May 10.

New polling was released in the Mountain State contest, which features Reps. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) and Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) battling in a new northern 2nd District. West Virginia lost its third district in national reapportionment, and even though the GOP controls the redistricting pen, the party obviously had to absorb the lost seat since all three current House members are Republicans.

Rep. Mooney, being in the middle district of the original three, always the least advantageous geographical position, had his district split between the northern and southern seat. All but one percent of Rep. McKinley’s current 1st District is contained in new District 2, while just 49 percent of Rep. Mooney’s current 2nd carries over to the new 2nd. All of Rep. Carol Miller’s (R-Huntington) current 3rd District is fully contained within the new 1st as well as 51 percent of Rep. Mooney’s current WV-2.

Two early 2022 surveys, in January from Public Opinion Strategies and February from WPA Intelligence, found similar leads of 45-32 percent and 43-28 percent for Rep. Mooney. This week, however, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce released their North Star Opinion Research survey (March 13-15; 400 WV-2 likely voters) and their results found Rep. McKinley rebounding to record a 38-33 percent edge. With polling showing a tightening of the race, we can expect a close finish in what should be regarded as a toss-up campaign.

Georgia

The Georgia Democrat pairing between Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) and Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) in the new Atlanta suburban 7th CD looks to be leaning toward the latter woman even though she sees a very low constituent carryover factor from her current 6th District.

This race will likely be decided on May 24, but since Georgia is a runoff state, there is always the mathematical possibility that the minor candidates could force a secondary election because their combined vote could be enough to keep both major contenders from reaching the 50 percent plateau.

An early January Data for Progress survey found Rep. McBath holding a nine point lead, 40-31 percent, despite the fact that only 12 percent of the new 7th comes from Rep. McBath’s 6th, as compared to 57 percent of the new population base who currently live in Rep. Bourdeaux’s district. On the other hand, McBath is much stronger with the regional Democratic base voter than is Bourdeaux.

Michigan

Two other paired contests are even tighter. Though the Michigan Democratic pairing between Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills) and Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township) won’t be decided until the Aug. 2 Democratic primary, two recently released surveys already detect a dead heat.

Lake Research Partners released data from their Feb. 15-20 survey that found the two Democratic members tied with 36 percent support apiece. Earlier in the month, Target Insyght found an almost identical conclusion from their ballot test question, with Reps. Stevens and Levin tied at 41 percent. In January, Impact Research released their study that posted Rep. Stevens to a seven-point advantage, 42-35 percent.

In this situation, Rep. Stevens sees a 45 percent carryover factor from her current 11th District, while Rep. Levin will have only 25 percent of his current 9th District constituency in the new 11th.

In Congressman Levin’s favor, however, is home base status. The Bloomfield Township region, which provided the base vote for his father, Sander Levin, whose career in the House lasted 36 years, and his uncle, the late Sen. Carl Levin who served his own 36 years in Congress, is fully intact within the new 11th. Conversely, Stevens’ home precincts within the Rochester Hills area are not included in the new 11th. This likely gives Levin the advantage of having the more driven supporters, which matters greatly in a lower turnout primary election.

Illinois

Turning to Illinois, in a race that will be settled in the June 28 primary, Reps. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and freshman Marie Newman (D-La Grange) also appear locked in a tight battle for political survival in the western Chicago suburbs. Unlike all the other paired districts that are safe for the winning paired member, the IL-6 CD could become a general election battleground.

In the new 6th, Rep. Newman sees more of her constituents comprising the new district, as just over 41 percent of her current 3rd District voters will be present in the new 6th. This number compares favorably to Rep. Casten’s constituent carryover factor of just 23.5 percent coming from the current 6th. Like in the aforementioned Michigan pairing, one member’s home base is within the district, in this case Casten’s, while the other, Newman’s La Grange region, is not.

Also, as in two of the other pairings, we see an early cycle even split between the two candidates. According to a Victoria Research Feb. 10-15 survey, the two House members were tied at 37 percent apiece.

No polling data is available for the other two pairings — the Illinois Republican battle between Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) and Mary Miller (R-Oakland) in the new 15th CD, and Michigan Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) in their state’s new District 4.

Davis has the advantage with the establishment Republicans while Rep. Miller, with former President Trump’s endorsement, is the ideological base vote favorite.

Despite running more than $200,000 in ads for the upcoming primary, Michigan Rep. Upton still says he has not yet committed to running again. He has until the April 19 candidate filing deadline to make a final decision. Upton has the geographical advantage in the new 4th (64 percent carryover to 25 percent), but Huizenga has the Trump endorsement and is stronger with the ideological base.

House redistribution statistics can be found on the Daily Kos Elections website.