Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s Rep. Evans to Retire; Rep. Johnson Enters Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 3, 2025

After a long period of stability regarding House open seats, three new member announcements occurred just this week.

We covered Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-NE) retirement decision yesterday, and now we see Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA) also headed for retirement and South Dakota at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) declaring his candidacy for Governor.

PA-3

Five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

After battling the after-effects from a stroke in 2024 that kept him from participating in congressional action for better than half a year, five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Evans was first elected to his federal post in 2016 after serving 36 years in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is fully contained in Philadelphia County and splits Philadelphia city with Rep. Brendan Boyle’s (D) 2nd District. PA-3 is heavily Democratic, so Rep. Evans’ successor will be decided in the 2026 Democratic primary.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 90.3D – 8.3R, obviously making it the safest Democratic district in the state. Not surprisingly, President Trump ran poorly here, losing to Kamala Harris in 2024 with an 88-11 percentage spread. In 2020, the gap was even larger as President Biden carried the district with a 90-9 percent margin.

The district is 51 percent Black, making it the only voting age population majority minority congressional seat in Pennsylvania. With a 3rd District voter registration of 77.8% Democratic and 10.0 percent Republican, a crowded Dem primary is expected and will decide which individual succeeds Rep. Evans. Next year’s Keystone State primary is scheduled for May 19.

SD-AL

On Monday, four-term at-large South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race next year, a move that had been expected. In fact, Johnson’s move was so widely telegraphed that state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) declared he would run to succeed the Congressman even before the official gubernatorial campaign announcement occurred.

The South Dakota Republican primary will be interesting in that Rep. Johnson is likely headed for a match against the now-sitting Republican Governor, Larry Rhoden. Once then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, Rhoden, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, ascended into the state’s chief executive position.

While he has not yet formally announced if he will run for Governor, it is expected that Rhoden will soon declare his official candidacy. Also in the race is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) and wealthy conservative businessman Toby Doeden.

The South Dakota Republican primary, scheduled for June 2 next year, will very likely decide the state’s next Governor. The last time Democrats claimed the Mt. Rushmore State Governorship was in the 1974 election.

Additionally, South Dakota is a runoff state. If no primary candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote, a secondary election will be held. Next year, the runoff date, if necessary, will be July 28.

Johnson was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving as former Gov. Dennis Daugaard’s chief of staff. His first elected office, attained at age 28, was for a seat on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission.

Considering the latest developments, the House open seat count now moves to 19, with 10 Democratic and 9 Republican seats in the category.

Three of the opens, because of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passing away, will be filled in special elections later this year. Replacements for the remaining 16 seats will be decided during the regular election cycle.

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) says he will resign from the House once the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted. When he leaves Congress, the open seat count will rise to 20.

In those 16 regular election open seats, only three are coming because the incumbent is retiring from elective politics. Seven members are running for US Senate and six, like Rep. Johnson, are competing in their state’s respective gubernatorial election.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.

GOP Loses Another Special

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 28, 2025

States

Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election, and now another similar situation unfolded this week.

Pennsylvania Democrat James Malone won a state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.

The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend or simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.

In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percent margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).

Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.

In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.

The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lieutenant Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.

In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Sen. David McCormick (R-PA).

Earlier, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.

Florida’s 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well-known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.

The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser-known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.

Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.

Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel’s rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.

It appears that Tuesday’s election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.