Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Outstanding Senate Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024

Senate

Click on above image or here to go to interactive Senate update map: CNN

While the Republicans have secured at least 52 seats in the new Senate resulting from their candidates’ partisan conversion victories in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three more races remain uncalled. Those are found in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

After polling consistently projected Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) running well ahead of former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake for most of the general election campaign cycle, the race closed at the end.

The current totals, not final because approximately 1.04 million votes remain to be counted find Rep. Gallego leading Lake, 50.0 percent to 47.9 percent, which translates to a vote margin of 52,581 votes according to the CNN elections page.

In order to win the race, Lake would have to capture approximately 545,000 of the remaining votes, which would mean a support factor of approximately 53 percent, or an increase of about five percentage points from her current tally.

In the current count, Rep. Gallego leads in only five of the state’s 15 counties, but commands 51.6 percent support in dominant Maricopa County, which contains almost 62 percent of the state’s population.

As he has been throughout the election cycle, Rep. Gallego is favored to claim the seat and succeed Independent Kyrsten Sinema as one of Arizona’s two senators. This race, however, is closer than originally predicted and verifies the late polling data that detected a surge in Lake’s favor.

In Nevada, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) leads Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) by 2,188 votes statewide in a race that has yet to be called. Approximately 10 percent of the vote remains outstanding.

In dominant Clark County, which houses approximately 70 percent of the state’s population, approximately 47,367 votes remain to be counted. At this point, Sen. Rosen has 50 percent of the Clark County vote as compared to 44.5 percent for Brown. For a Republican to win a Nevada statewide race, however, he or she needs approximately 44 percent of the Clark County vote, so Brown is well within victory range.

In the state’s remaining 16 counties, approximately 79,578 votes remain. For Brown to upset Sen. Rosen, he would need to attract 47.5% of the outstanding vote since he currently leads the statewide tally by 2,188 votes according to the CNN election results Nevada page. Therefore, this race is very much alive for either candidate.

The third and final outstanding Senate race lies in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Here, challenger David McCormick (R) leads veteran Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), by 30,669 votes from approximately 6.81 million ballots cast. The CNN election results page suggests that 97 percent of the total vote has been counted, meaning just over 62,000 votes remain if the total vote estimate is correct.

If so, this would mean that Sen. Casey would have to attract a full percentage point more than his current total from the remaining vote number, understanding that three independent and minor party candidates are attracting a combined 2.6 percent.

While Rep. Gallego is in the prime position to capture the Arizona seat, the two Republicans in Nevada and Pennsylvania are mathematically in slightly better position to win their respective elections simply because their current leads mean they need less of the outstanding vote than their opponents.

While the mathematics suggest that both challengers Brown and McCormick have the easier path to victory, such may not be the case in the real world of politics.

With the Republicans sitting at 52 seats in the new Senate, winning either Nevada or Pennsylvania would bring them to 53, while taking both would create a 54R-46D chamber split. This would put them in prime legislative position for the coming congressional session.

Election Result Quick Analysis

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024

2024 Election

Heading into the election, it appeared that either party still had the opportunity to score a legislative trifecta. That is winning the presidency, the Senate, and the House. At this point, it appears the Republicans may have achieved such a goal.

Former President Donald Trump has been projected the winner of the 2024 presidential contest by retaining all 25 states that voted for him in both 2016 and 2020, along with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. He held his weakest state, North Carolina, and then converted Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to, at this writing, record 277 electoral votes, or seven more than necessary to clinch the national election. Still outstanding are Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and Trump leads in each.

The Republicans are on the threshold of major gains in the Senate. As predicted, the open West Virginia seat was first to fall to the GOP in the person of Gov. Jim Justice. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) then went down to defeat at the hands of Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) then unseated Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.

The races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain uncalled. It appears the GOP’s best opportunity now lies in Pennsylvania. The others may swing toward the Democratic candidate. Therefore, the Republicans will at least have a 52-seat majority, and maybe 53.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears poised to defeat Republican Kari Lake and return retiring Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat to the Democratic column. In another competitive race, New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) successfully won a third term, and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to keep the open Free State Senate seat in the Democratic caucus.

The House majority remains undecided, but Republicans appear to stand a good chance of hanging onto their slim majority. It could be several weeks before we see final totals in the competitive California races that feature four Republicans who sit in Democratic seats fighting for survival. Republican Scott Baugh has a slight lead in the open Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for the Senate.

The GOP also has a chance to unseat Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) as Republican Nick Begich III continues to hold a lead hovering around 50 percent. Should he exceed that total, he will avoid the Ranked Choice Voting round. It also appears that Alaskans have repealed the Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system and will return to partisan primaries. Thus, the at-large congressional race is likely the last time we will see the RCV system coming into play. The Alaska seat is the most Republican district in the country that currently elects a Democratic House member.

Depending upon the final outcome of the California and Arizona races, which are likely weeks away from final determination, they will tell us whether the Republicans have held their slim House majority. It appears the party has only suffered a very small number of incumbent defeats, which is the key to maintaining chamber control.

Holding the House would award the Republicans a legislative trifecta and certainly give President-Elect Trump a political mandate. It is also probable that Mr. Trump will carry the national popular vote, and that may be the 2024 election’s biggest surprise.

The Election Keys

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024

2024 Election

When election results are released tonight, several states and districts are worth monitoring because they could provide clues as to what may happen in the rest of the country.

In the presidential race, the first state to follow is North Carolina. With its 16 electoral votes, North Carolina is of critical importance to former President Donald Trump’s campaign. He must win the Tar Heel State. If Vice President Kamala Harris pulls an upset here, the election is effectively over as this would be considered an early round knockout and effectively clinch her national victory.

From Trump’s perspective, the college basketball tournament metaphor is applicable. North Carolina is akin to the first round. Here, Trump must win and advance.

The second key state is Georgia. Similar to North Carolina, a Harris victory here would likely clinch the national election. For Trump, Georgia is analogous to the second round of the basketball tournament. Again, he must win here and advance.

Pennsylvania is the third state to observe. In a way, this is the championship round for Trump. If he wins in North Carolina and Georgia, a Pennsylvania victory would clinch him the national election. Holding North Carolina and converting Georgia and Pennsylvania would allow him to convert the minimum 35 electoral votes he needs to win the national election.

Because he is strong in the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that voted for him twice in past campaigns, the North Carolina-Georgia-Pennsylvania trifecta would clinch 270 electoral votes, and with it, the presidency. For Harris to win, she must take at least one of the three aforementioned states.

The Senate races are currently in flux as more seats are coming into play. Republicans are favored to win the majority, but most of the states will be very close. West Virginia flipping to the Republicans in the person of Gov. Jim Justice will be the first step toward the GOP majority, and this race is virtually a foregone conclusion. A Justice victory here would move the Senate into a 50-50 tie.

The 51st Republican seat is likely to come in Montana where Sen. Jon Tester (D), trailing in virtually every poll from two to eight percentage points, is predicted to lose to retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy. Since Montana is a western state and the results will come late into the evening, another state to watch is Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) appears to be teetering in a state that Trump will carry by 8-10 points.

Other tight Senate races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are worth following. Democrats are still favored to win all, but the Republican candidate in each situation is closing fast.

The Republican majority plans will be upset if GOP senators Deb Fischer (R-NE) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) lose their seats in Nebraska and Texas. A Fischer loss would be particularly devastating because she does not even have a Democratic opponent — rather, a strong Independent, Dan Osborn, with backing now from establishment Democrats has a chance to unseat Sen. Fischer who, heretofore, was expected to glide to re-election.

In the House, while Democrats may be slight favorites to wrest the majority away from Republicans, the margin could be as small as one seat. An early evening seat to watch lies in western Connecticut where District 5 Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) is again in a tight battle versus former state Sen. George Logan (R). Rep. Hayes outlasted Logan by just a percentage point in 2022 and, while she is favored to win again, a Logan upset could be a harbinger of other races to come.

Another Eastern time zone seat to watch is in Union County, New Jersey where freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) battles former Working Parties Executive Director Sue Altman (D) in the state’s 7th CD. Rep. Kean should win this race, but an Altman upset would definitely signal a good night for Democrats.

Moving to the western part in the Eastern time zone brings us to Michigan. Three toss-up races lie there, two of which are open Democratic seats. Should either Republican Tom Barrett or Paul Junge, or both, win close contests in Districts 7 and 8, another good Republican sign would unfold since both campaigns would be conversion victories.

In Michigan District 10, freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) fights to hold his politically marginal seat against the man he defeated by less than a percentage point in 2022, retired judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga. A Democratic victory here to unseat Rep. James would be a major win for them and be a further signal of an impending new Democratic majority.

As we move further west, counting gets slower and political overtime will loom large. Once we get to the many competitive races on the Pacific coast, it is a virtual certainty that it will be weeks before final numbers are released after signature verification of millions of mail ballots is completed.

Just a few days from the election, it is clear that the House outcome could still favor either party. Even at this late date, both are still in position to score legislative trifectas, where the same party controls the presidency, the Senate, and the House. Or, we could just as easily return to divided government. The most likely House scenario features a multitude of close races with many not being decided until well into November.

Early Voting Wrap Up; Iowa Polling Disparity; Pennsylvania Swinging Towards Trump; Arizona Senate Race Closer Than Expected; Michigan’s Mirror Images; Virginia Outlier Poll

Review data on: TargetSmart

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 4, 2024

Early Voting Wrap Up

Early Gender Numbers: Analysts Missing the Point — News reports are covering the early vote totals and report after report states that women are voting in greater numbers than men. While the raw numbers indicate such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.

When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent while men, compared to their previous performance in a presidential year, are up one-half of a percentage point. This data comes from the Target Early/TargetSmart organization and is based upon more than 55 million early votes cast (at this writing) for the 2024 election.

Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting that appears evident around the country and the decrease detected in urban voter participation.

Closings: Early Voting Ends in All Seven Battlegrounds — All seven battleground states have concluded their early voting periods, and generally the results appear to be better for Republicans than past early voting years. The move to get their voters to the polls early looks to have produced results for the GOP.

The two biggest swings come in North Carolina and Nevada where, for the first time in history, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats. The Arizona vote count looks good for the GOP, too. The Harris campaign likely is pleased with what they see coming from Michigan and especially Wisconsin. Republican early turnout in the Badger State appears particularly low. Georgia and Pennsylvania show mixed patterns, meaning we are likely again headed for very close finishes in both of those states.

The early vote data is collected and reported by the TargetEarly/TargetSmart organization.

President

Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll Sees Lead Change — The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll is always viewed as the gold standard of Iowa prediction models. Their pre-election survey (Oct. 28-31; 808 likely Iowa voters; live interview) finds Vice President Kamala Harris all of a sudden leading Donald Trump, 47-44 percent, largely because of a huge break toward the former among women, particularly those who are aged 65 and older.

Yet, simultaneously, Emerson College released their Iowa survey and finds a much different result, one that is more in line with previous data. The Emerson survey (Nov. 1-2; 800 likely Iowa voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees former President Donald Trump holding a nine point lead, 54-45 percent. This is also closer to Iowa voting history. In 2016, Trump carried the state 51-42%, and 53-45% in 2020.

An Iowa win for Harris would turn the electoral map topsy turvy and potentially send the final result on a completely different course. This situation bears watching as we close in on election day. Iowa has six electoral votes.

Pennsylvania: Swinging Towards Trump — A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.

The Echelon Insights survey (Oct. 27-30; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) posts Trump to a 51-46 percent count on the multi-candidate ballot. The poll swinging the most from that result comes from Fox News (Oct. 24-28; 1,057 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) and suggests the two candidates are tied with 48 percent apiece.

Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.

Senate

Arizona: Closer Than Expected — Earlier this week, we covered a new poll regarding the Arizona Senate race that posted former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Senate race. The poll, which forecast Lake holding a one-point edge, came from the Data Orbital firm over the Oct. 26-28 period.

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel released their latest Arizona poll (Oct. 30-31; 1,005 likely Arizona voters) and the conclusion was identical to that of the previous Data Orbital survey, that being Lake holding a small one-point lead.

Two other pollsters were also in the field during the similar period. Another AtlasIntel survey was conducted during the Oct. 25-29 period, and they saw the opposite result: Rep. Gallego leading by the same one-point margin. A fourth poll was also introduced (Noble Predictive Insights; Oct. 28-30; 775 likely Arizona voters) and this ballot test returned Rep. Gallego to a four-point edge.

While all the polls before October gave Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. Though Rep. Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.

Michigan: Mirror Images — Two surveys were released of the Michigan electorate that ended on the same day and produced the same 49-47 percent ballot test conclusion, except each found a different candidate reaching the 49 percent figure. Mitchell Research and Communications, polling for the Michigan News Source (Oct. 28-29; sample size undisclosed) sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) with the slight lead, while AtlasIntel (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) arrived at the opposite conclusion. The latter finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) clinging to the two-point edge.

This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at an opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.

Virginia: Outlier Poll Finds Hung Cao Down 1 — In another strange polling situation, one even the conducting pollsters admit is probably an outlier, Virginia US Senate candidate Hung Cao (R) has pulled into just one point of Sen. Tim Kaine (D) on the Chism Strategies survey (10/28-30; 520 VA likely voters; live interview & text; part of a three state series), 46-45%. No other data shows such a close result.

Two other late October polls (Oct. 25-29), conducted by Roanoke College and the Cygnal polling firm, see double digit leads (11 and 10 points, respectively), which is consistent with projections that Sen. Kaine will easily win re-election. As a point of reference, the Chism poll also sees a close Virginia presidential race. Their ballot test finds Harris and Trump effectively in a tie. This, too is refuted by other pollsters.

House

ME-2: A Huge Polling Range — Continuing the theme of divergent polling, we see another example in northern Maine where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.

Survey USA, conducting a statewide poll (Oct. 24-29; 1,079 likely Maine voters; 484 likely ME-2 voters; online), finds Rep. Golden posting a 53-41 percent lead over Theriault even while Trump leads Harris, 49-44 percent in the same district, a CD that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.

In another survey taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters; live interview & text), actually sees Theriault leading 47-45 percent. Therefore, we see a 14-point polling span between these two studies. With so many surveys being released at the end of the cycle, it is rather routine to see data results producing wildly comparative swings, and the final days of the 2024 election is apparently no exception to such a trend.

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Senate Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024

Senate

Montana GOP senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy

With early voting churning forward and the election a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority.

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (Oct. 23-25; 1,000 likely Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39 percent, the Senate race, at 50-46 percent and 51-48 percent when “leaners” to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47 percent. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43 percent of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count.

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are one-and-a-half points stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, 10 polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers.

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous 10 October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down — 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46 percent suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points.

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace here of four years ago.

As you can see, many more Senate races are becoming interesting.

Casey Changing Tune in PA; Rogers Up in New Michigan Poll; Zinke Way Up in Montana; Molinaro Trails in NY-19

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) ad

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Changing Tune — For the first time, a new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), which may explain why he is citing agreement with the Trump trade policies in a new ad and drawing a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration’s fracking policy. The AtlasIntel survey (Oct. 12-17; 2,048 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) projects McCormick to hold a 48-47 percent edge over Sen. Casey.

Simultaneously, however, the Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) shows the senator leading their ballot test by seven percentage points, 50-43 percent. Sen. Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden message change to at least partially align himself with former President Donald Trump is eyebrow raising and suggests that the campaign’s internal data might be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.

Obviously, these two pollsters have different methodologies in conducting their surveys. Which is the more accurate is difficult to tell at this point. Therefore, we will likely have to wait until Election Day to determine which of the two research entities has the better sampling practice.

Michigan: Rogers Up in New Poll — Similar to what we see in the Pennsylvania race as described below, a new AtlasIntel poll shows Republican former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers taking a small one-point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine-point lead.

AtlasIntel (Oct. 12-17; 1,529 likely Michigan voters; online) projects Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48 percent advantage. The Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Michigan voters) finds a Slotkin margin of 51-42 percent.

House

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Up Substantially — Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state’s at-large House seat in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly, after the election, then-President-Elect Trump nominated Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years. When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State’s new western 1st District, but with an under-performing margin of 50-46 percent in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.

With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the ’24 race could again be close. A new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey, however, suggests Rep. Zinke is in position to improve upon his previous performance. The poll (conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund; Oct. 13-16; 400 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) projects the congressman to hold a 52-44 percent advantage.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro (R) Trails in Dem Internal — A Global Strategy Group large sample survey for the Josh Riley (D) campaign (Oct. 9-13; 801 likely NY-19 voters; live interview & text) gives the challenger a 48-45 percent lead in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican. In comparison to the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by only one point, meaning the incumbent Republican and former Dutchess County Executive is running behind his party’s presidential ticket.

New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority, and this is a district the Republicans need to keep in their column if they are to have a chance of retaining their small majority.
Expect right-of-center outside groups to increase spending in this district. Riley is outspending the incumbent by almost a 2:1 ratio, while outside groups are helping him in a 3:1 count from combined external spending of over $8 million.