Tag Archives: NY-17

Three Enter GOP Presidential Race;
Ex-Iceland Ambassador Prepares Run in Nevada; Will an Upset in New York Hold?; Only 17 Now in RI-1 Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 8, 2023

President

Announcements: Three Enter GOP Presidential Race — Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum all declared their presidential campaigns yesterday or are in the process of doing so. None of the three are regarded as top-tier contenders, but things can change in the next months as we head toward the first vote in the Iowa Caucuses on Feb. 5, 2024.

The field now grows to nine candidates, featuring former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and Pence, Christie, and Burgum.

Senate

Dr. Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R)

Nevada: Ex-Iceland Ambassador Prepares Run — The Nevada Senate race featuring incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) running for a second term should be a top-tier competitive race, but the Republican field has been slow to assemble. Businessman, disabled Afghan War veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown is expected to run but has not yet officially entered the race. A new candidate coming on the horizon, Dr. Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R), the former US Ambassador to Iceland in the Trump Administration, is apparently now testing the political waters to enter the race.

Republicans will need a strong candidate to make this race viable. In 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) barely slipped past former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) with a 48.8 – 48.0 percent victory. There is no indication that Laxalt will return for another run next year.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Ahead in Test Polling — One of the biggest 2022 congressional upsets came in upstate New York where then-state Assemblyman Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) defeated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D). Now, a new EMC Research poll, surveying for the End Citizens United and Let America Vote organizations (May 4-7; 300 likely NY-17 voters; live interview & online) finds Rep. Lawler clinging to a slight 50-48 percent lead over former Congressman Mondaire Jones, in what is expected to be the 2024 candidate lineup.

Jones was elected to the former 17th District in 2018 but moved to New York City to run for re-election from his Westchester County base when Rep. Maloney decided to run in the court-drawn 17th CD has not yet announced he will run but is expected to enter the race. The district leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat D+7 with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean topping 56 percent Democratic. Also in the Democratic contest is local school board trustee Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

RI-1: Field Drops to 17 — State Rep. Nathan Biah (D-Providence), one of 18 Democratic candidates vying for the congressional seat from which Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned, is leaving the race. Instead, he will enter the special election to replace the late state Sen. Maryellen Goodwin (D).

Candidate filing continues to progress and will end June 30 for the determinative Sept. 5 Democratic primary. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates RI-1 as D+32 with a Democratic partisan lean score of almost 65 percent Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App data organization.

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.

NY, NC House News; Polls Flipped in Mississippi; Robinson Leads in NC Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 4, 2023

House

Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D)

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Moving Forward — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) appears intent on attempting to re-claim the Westchester County Congressional seat he abandoned in an unsuccessful attempt to win a newly created New York City open district last year. Reports from the state say Jones has dismissed any thought of challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary to focus on a return to the 17th District.

Driving Jones’ decision to find a new seat in 2020 was then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D) plan to run in the 17th. Maloney being defeated in the general election at the hands of freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the D+7 rated district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization makes this 2024 campaign a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

Though Jones may return, he will face Democratic primary competition from at least one announced candidate: Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustee Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

NC-8: Rep. Dan Bishop Testing the AG Waters — Reports are surfacing from the Tar Heel State that Charlotte US Rep. Dan Bishop may be looking to run for the state’s open attorney general’s post. Rep. Bishop looks to have the inside track to the Republican nomination if he chooses to run. Western North Carolina District Attorney Andrew Murray is interested in in the statewide post but suggests he will step aside for Rep. Bishop if the congressman decides to enter the race.

Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is a potential Democratic AG candidate, looking to succeed incumbent Josh Stein (D) who is running for governor. Rep. Jackson appears as the potential top target in what is expected to be a new redistricting plan coming from the legislature as a direct result of the state Supreme Court’s recent redistricting and voter ID rulings.

Governor

Mississippi: Conflicting Polling Data Reported — Earlier this week, we reported about a Siena College poll (April 16-20; 783 registered Mississippi voters; live interview & online) that posted Gov. Tate Reeves (R) to an expanding 49-38 percent lead over Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). Countering that result, Presley’s campaign yesterday released their own internal data (Impact Research; April 24-27; 600 likely Mississippi voters) the results of which portend a much different conclusion. IR finds its candidate, Presley, actually leading Gov. Reeves, 47-44 percent. Ths 2023 Magnolia State general election campaign promises to be much more competitive than in years past.

North Carolina: New GOP Primary Poll — Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has opened a huge lead in the open Republican gubernatorial primary according to a new Survey USA Poll. The study (April 25-29; 707 likely Republican North Carolina primary voters; live interview & online) projects Robinson to a whopping 43-9-8-4 percent lead over former Congressman Mark Walker, North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell, respectively.

The GOP winner will likely face Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in the general election. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Arizona’s Ducey Not Considering Running; Ex-Gov Daniels Tops GOP Field; Former Incumbent, Challenger to Return to House Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023

Senate

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

Arizona: Ex-Gov Out; Gubernatorial Candidate Considering — Upon exiting office at the end of his two full terms, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey’s (R) name continues to be mentioned prominently as a potential US Senate candidate. The now-former governor again confirmed, however, that he is not even considering running for the federal post in 2024. Another potential Senate candidate who is considering making a run is 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who lost to former news anchorwoman Kari Lake, 48-43 percent, in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) has not yet announced her re-election intentions but appears to be preparing her Independent run in a three-way race. Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) are actively assessing their individual chances in what could become a seriously contested Democratic primary. Again, the Arizona Senate race will be one of the focal points of the 2024 election cycle, but this time will feature a unique procedural contest.

Indiana: Ex-Gov Daniels Tops GOP Field — A Bellwether Research survey (Dec. 11-17; 1,000 registered Indiana Republican voters; 457 likely Republican primary voters; online & text) was fielded just before Christmas and found former governor, and most recently Purdue University President Mitch Daniels leading a prospective open Indiana Republican US Senate primary. If he were to run, Daniels would top Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) 32-10 percent with former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, current US Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), and attorney general and former Congressman Todd Rokita trailing with 9-7-7 percent support levels, respectively.

Sen. Mike Braun (R) is running for governor. None of the aforementioned has officially declared their intention to run for the Senate, but all admit to at least be considering the possibility of launching a campaign.

House

NY-17: Former Incumbent May Return — Democrat Mondaire Jones, who won the 17th Congressional District in 2020 only to depart for a post-redistricting New York City seat in 2022, says he is considering returning to Westchester County to challenge Rep-Elect Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in 2024. Jones did not want to oppose then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the Democratic primary after the latter man declared his candidacy, so he instead moved to a new Manhattan-Brooklyn 10th District that Rep-Elect Dan Goldman (D-New York City), an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, eventually won.

In the 17th, Lawler, then a state assemblyman, unseated Rep. Maloney with a 51-49 percent general election victory margin. This, in a new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7. There is no question that NY-17 will be a top target in 2024.

WA-3: Defeated Favorite to Return — Joe Kent, the Republican who denied then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler advancement into the general election but then lost in November to Rep-Elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) in one of the nation’s biggest 2022 upsets, says he will return for a 2024 re-match. Because Kent was widely favored to win the seat but failed to convert, we can expect intense competition in what will be an August Washington jungle primary. FiveThirtyEight rates WA-3 as R+11.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Tops Field — The aforementioned Bellwether Research poll (see Indiana Senate above) projects Sen. Mike Braun to a large lead in the impending open 2024 GOP gubernatorial contest.

Braun holds a 25-9-7-6-3 percent Republican primary advantage over Attorney General Todd Rokita, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, ex-Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, and businessman Eric Doden, respectively. At this point, Crouch and Doden have announced their candidacies, as has Sen. Braun. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Iowa Race Tightens; Blumenthal Lead Drops; DCCC Chairman Trails in Race; Conflicting Gov. Whitmer Results; Rep. Zeldin Closing on NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Oct. 18 2022

Senate

Iowa’s seven-term US Sen. Chuck Grassley (R)

Iowa: Race Tightens — The Des Moines Register Poll that Selzer & Company conducts (Oct. 9-12; 620 likely Iowa general election voters) has routinely been viewed as the most consistently accurate survey of the Iowa electorate. Therefore, the numbers just released over the weekend posting Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) to only a three-point, 46-43 percent, lead over retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken (D) is being taken seriously. Perhaps the most troubling sign for Sen. Grassley is that Franken leads 46-35 percent among self-described independent respondents.

The Iowa electorate can swing wildly, but in the most recent elections it has been going the Republicans’ way. Since most of the comparable data found Sen. Grassley holding low double-digit leads, the Selzer poll is a surprise. More attention will be paid to this race if confirming data soon surfaces.

Connecticut: Blumenthal Lead Drops to Five Points — A just-released Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (Oct. 10-13; 1,200 likely Connecticut general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) leading his Republican opponent, former Trump appointee Leora Levy (R), by only a 49-44 percent margin. Though this race has been on the edge of competitiveness for a considerable period, it is highly unlikely that the end result will yield a Republican upset. While Sen. Blumenthal’s victory margin might be less than in years past, he will still comfortably win re-election next month.

House

NY-17: DCCC Chairman Trails in Own Race — McLaughlin & Associates released a new internal study for the Mike Lawler for Congress campaign (Oct. 2-14; 400 likely NY-17 general election voters; live interview & text) that again shows the Republican state assemblyman leading veteran New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring).

This survey posts Lawler to a 52-46 percent advantage. McLaughlin polls from July and September also saw Lawler holding a significant lead. No Democratic poll was released to counter the numbers, but the Maloney campaign spokeswoman responded to the New York Post story about the survey release, saying that the Lawler polling figures are “skewed.”

Governor

Michigan: Major Polling Conflict — We see a pair of polls presenting opposite looks to the Michigan Governor’s race. The Epic-MRA organization, an entity that frequently surveys the Michigan electorate (Oct. 6-12; 600 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview) posts Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) to an 11-point, 49-38 percent edge, including leaners, over online talk show personality Tudor Dixon (R). But, Insider Advantage (Oct. 12; 550 likely Michigan general election voters) sees a completely different result, placing Dixon and the governor into a flat 44-44 percent tie. Most other polling has produced similar numbers to Epic-MRA, so this is another situation that bears watching if confirming data to the Insider Advantage results soon surface.

New York: Four Polls Showing Increased Competition — Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has been running consistently ahead of US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island), but now we see four consecutive polls finding the Republican deficit falling between two and eight percentage points.

In chronological order, Schoen Cooperman Research (Oct. 8-12; 824 likely New York general election voters) sees only a 50-44 percent split between Gov. Hochul, who ascended to her position when Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, and Congressman Zeldin. Marist College (Oct. 3-6; 900 likely voters) posts a similar 52-44 percent split. The Trafalgar Group (Sept. 30-Oct. 3; 1,087 likely voters) sees the closest spread, 45-43 percent. Finally, McLaughlin & Associates (Sept. 21-25; 800 likely voters) recorded a 51-45 percent result in late September.

This is another race on the edge of competitiveness that will likely soon draw more attention. Early voting in New York does not begin until Oct. 29, so more time exists for this potentially fluid electorate to gel.

Sen. Warnock Still Up, Slightly, in GA; Lasry Drops out of Wisconsin Race; Maloney Trails in NY-17

By Jim Ellis — July 29, 2022

Senate

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker

Georgia: Sen. Warnock Still Up — The University of Georgia, polling for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 14-22; 902 likely Georgia general election voters; live interview), finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) clinging to a small lead in the US Senate race — the third consecutive published poll to project Warnock’s edge margins between three and nine points. The UGA/AJC ballot test sees Sen. Warnock holding a 46-43 percent edge over retired NFL football star Herschel Walker (R). Another poll, from Survey USA (July 21-24; 604 likely Georgia general election voters), posts the senator to a 48-39 percent advantage.

Warnock holds the lead despite the Republicans having a 46-41 percent lead on the UGA’s generic ballot question, with the right track/wrong track ratio at 10:78 percent, and President Biden reaching a 60 percent disapproval rating.

Wisconsin: Lasry Follows Suit — On Monday Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson (D), whose campaign for US Senate never caught fire, formally ended his statewide effort. Wednesday, Milwaukee Bucks basketball club executive and former Obama Administration official Alex Lasry then followed suit and also departed the race on Wednesday. The latter move was the more surprising since Lasry had loaned his campaign over $12 million and all polling found him placing second in the field.

In their concession statements, both Nelson and Lasry endorsed Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, which could pave the way for him clinching the party nomination and advancing to challenge Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the general election.

House

NY-17: DCCC Chair Maloney Trailing in New Poll — Veteran Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is having trouble securing the new seat according to a new publicly released research survey.

The congressman created post-redistricting controversy when he decided to challenge Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) in the 17th CD rather than staying in his own 18th District, thus forcing the freshman incumbent to seek re-election in a New York City CD.

McLaughlin & Associates, polling for the Mike Lawler for Congress campaign (July 19-21; 400 likely NY-17 general election voters; live interview), finds Rep. Maloney trailing his Republican opponent, 46-44 percent. The McLaughlin data also shows state Assemblyman Lawler claiming a lead over state Sen. Allessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx) if she were to upend Rep. Maloney in the Aug. 23 Democratic primary. Under this scenario, Lawler would post a 47-41 percent advantage in such a subsequent general election pairing. The 17th is one of three Upstate NY congressional districts that will be hotly contested in the November campaign.

Governor

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Maintains Edge — The aforementioned University of Georgia – Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey also tested the Peach State governor’s contest. Here, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D) by a 48-43 percent count. The accompanying Survey USA poll shows a much closer 45-44 percent Kemp edge.

This is the 15th poll conducted of this race since the beginning of 2022, and Kemp has led in all but one. In that stand-alone survey, the two were tied. The governor’s job approval rating is 54:42 percent favorable to unfavorable. The UGA/AJC and S-USA studies are the second and third consecutive polls that place Gov. Kemp ahead in the governor’s race while fellow Republican Herschel Walker (R) trails in the Senate contest.

Pennsylvania GOP Senate Primary Still Undecided, Moving to Recount; House News Includes NY, PA, TX

By Jim Ellis — May 27, 2022

Senate

Dr. Mehmet Oz (left) leads former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 902 votes.

Pennsylvania: Recount Ordered — It’s now been more than a week since the primary election here and still no declared winner in the Republican Senate primary. Pennsylvania election authorities have already ordered election officials in the state’s 67 counties to begin the inevitable recount. Officials know the final unofficial count, which could be released as early as today or tomorrow, will be within the half percent that triggers an automatic recount.

At this writing, the numbers show Dr. Mehmet Oz leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 902 votes from more than 1.3 million ballots cast. The deadline for military, overseas, and provisional ballot reception was Tuesday. It is being reported that this is the closest primary in Pennsylvania’s modern political era.

House

NY-16: New Challenger for Rep. Bowman — Westchester County Legislator Catherine Parker (D) announced her intention to challenge Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in the upcoming Aug. 23 Democratic primary. Another Westchester Legislator, Vedat Gashi (D), is already in the race. Parker says the new district lines move Gashi’s political base outside the district’s confines, hence her becoming a candidate. Irrespective of this activity, Rep. Bowman is favored for re-nomination and re-election in the new 16th CD.

NY-17: Two Republicans Oppose Rep. Maloney — After state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx) announced her Democratic primary challenge to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), two Republicans have jumped into the new 17th District campaign, state Assemblyman Matt Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Rockland County Legislator Charles Falciglia.

The new 17th is rated D+7 through the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s calculations. While the seat clearly leans Democratic, Rep. Maloney has attracted a great deal of attention since he announced against freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) instead of running just north in what is now the open 18th CD. For his part, Jones is now running in the southwestern Manhattan/Brooklyn new 10th District.

PA-17: New Poll Already Shows Toss-Up — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already out with a new poll of the open PA-17 CD taken before the May 17 primary (May 9-10; 494 likely PA-17 voters; live interview & text). They project a 44-41 percent lead for their new nominee, election law attorney Chris Deluzio (D) over former local official Jeremy Shaffer, the new GOP nominee. When the DCCC first started releasing polling several years ago, the data was heavily slanted in their candidates’ favor, thus forfeiting credibility. In the last several years, however, their results have been closer to the mark, but still slightly slanted. Therefore, a DCCC poll finding Deluzio only ahead three points is a clear indication this race already begins in the toss-up realm.

Texas: TX-24, TX-15 — Two electoral contests from Tuesday remain uncalled and are very tight. In the 28th District, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) holds only a 177 vote run-off lead over opponent Jessica Cisneros (D). The Secretary of State’s released results show all precincts reporting, meaning ancillary votes arriving in the mail and provisionals are likely the only ballots remaining. A recount will probably be requested, but based upon the trends of where the remaining ballots lie, it appears that Rep. Cuellar’s slim advantage will likely grow.

Staying in South Texas, the Democratic 15th District runoff between businesswoman Michelle Vallejo and attorney Ruben Ramirez leans toward the former by just 23 votes. The voter pool at this point, however, is just over 12,000 individuals, an extremely low participation total. The final ballots can clearly tip this race to either candidate. The eventual winner will face Republican 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz. The general election campaign will likely begin as a toss-up. If the Democratic decision is drawn out over a long period, de la Cruz would be staked to a key advantage in the early general election period. The FiveThirtyEight rating for TX-15 is EVEN.