Tag Archives: Montana

Senate Money

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024

Senate

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana, has raised $31.7 million in just the past three months. / Photo by Jared King, Navajo Nation Washington Office

According to The Down Ballot political blog, the Democratic Senate candidates extended their already impressive 2024 cycle fundraising advantage over Republicans as reported in the just released third quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports.

The Down Ballot calculations indicate that “Democratic candidates collectively raised $452 million dollars, almost twice as much as the $235 million brought in by their GOP rivals.” The gap might be the largest in the Senate races as compared to the Presidential and House campaigns, but just how much will the money advantage mean in terms of winning and losing?

The three biggest fundraisers for the third quarter with incredible totals begin with Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) $31.7 million raised in just the past three months. Closely following are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with $29.8 million raised, and Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) securing $29.7 million.

Despite the huge fundraising and spending advantage, however, the latest polling shows all three of these candidates trailing their Republican opponents. In the Montana race, the New York Times/Siena College survey (Oct. 5-8; 656 likely Montana voters; live interview) sees Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Tester, 52-44 percent, despite his overall better than 3:1 fundraising edge.

In Ohio, Sen. Brown posts a cycle-to-date dominance of more than 4:1 in campaign spending, but the latest survey from the Morning Consult track (Oct. 6-15; 1,243 likely Ohio voters; online) gives Republican businessman Bernie Moreno a one-point lead, 48-47 percent.

While Rep. Allred outraised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) $29.7 million to $17.1 million during the Q3 period, the two are at parity for cycle-to-date fundraising: $64.1 million for Allred; $63.7 million for Cruz. The latest YouGov poll for the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project (Oct. 2-10; 1,091 likely Texas voters; online), however, gives Sen. Cruz a 51-44 percent advantage.

What these fundraising and polling numbers show is that a larger advantage in campaign resources and spending does not necessarily guarantee majority support.

Overall, an aggregate $340-plus million was raised in the 3rd quarter from the 79 charted Senate candidates with an average of $4.3 million per contender in just the 13-plus week reporting period from July 1- Sept. 30. The median average, however, is $1.084 million, meaning an equal number of candidates have raised more and less than that number.

One of the more interesting late-breaking races is the Nebraska Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R). While not having a Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer faces Independent Dan Osborn, who is making her re-election battle much more difficult than anyone would have imagined at the beginning of the election cycle in what should be a safe Republican state. In the Q3, Osborn out-raised Sen. Fischer, $3.2 million to $915,000, but the incumbent still maintains the overall spending advantage, $7.1 million to $4.2 million.

The biggest Q3 gap in fundraising, as it has been throughout the election cycle, comes in the Michigan Senate race. For the 3rd quarter, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) raised $18 million versus former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) pulling in $4.4 million, which, incidentally, is his best fundraising quarter for the election cycle. In the cycle-to-date categories, Slotkin leads Rogers $40.3 million to $9.4 million in fundraising and $35.9 million to $6.6 million in spending.

While the polls have always favored Rep. Slotkin, her margin is not overly strong, an average of 4.3 points from 14 October polls. Slotkin’s largest lead is nine points (The Bullfinch Group; Oct. 11-17), collapsing as far as Rogers posting a one-point edge (AtlasIntel; Oct. 12-17).

While the Senate Democratic candidates enjoy a huge advantage in fundraising, the aggregate outside organization spending has brought the two parties closer to parity. Most of the independent expenditures favor the Republican side either in money for pro-Republican candidate ads and programs, or anti-Democratic ads and programs.

Including all levels of federal campaigning (President, Senate, and House), the conservative outside organizations have outspent the liberal organizations by a 2:1 margin, $1.3 billion to $566 million according to the Open Secrets data organization.

It is clear that both sides have more than enough financial resources with which to communicate their message to the American electorate. It is always better to have more money than less, but it is not always necessary to be the top spender in a race.

Senate Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

Senate

In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota — Though the Minnesota Senate race is not particularly competitive, recent polling has suggested that Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) re-election campaign is a bit closer than one would expect in a state that reliably supports its Democratic incumbents. Four polls of the Minnesota Senate contest were released in September, and Sen. Klobuchar’s average advantage is nine percentage points over former professional basketball player Royce White (R). The margin is moderately strong, but not where one would have expected a virtually uncontested senator in the most loyal Democratic state in presidential election years.

The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.

Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.

This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.

Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.

Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.

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VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Poll Confirms Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race; A GOP Lead in Swing Congressional District; Tight Race in Montana; Final Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: Confirming Poll — Last week, we reported on a CNN poll (part of a six-state polling series; Aug. 23-29; 789 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) that found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46 percent) for the first time in this year’s Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4, Sen. Casey averaged a seven-point spread over the course of 14 publicly released surveys.

In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group (Aug. 28-30; 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) basically verified CNN’s tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Casey tops McCormick by only one point, 46-45 percent, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.

Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College (Aug. 25-28; 950 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projected the senator’s lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44 percent, but still within the same realm as the others. Despite Sen. Casey’s strong 2:1 spending advantage, it appears this race is becoming highly competitive as we move deeper into political prime time.

House

MI-7: Poll Shows GOP Lead in Swing CD: — With Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) now running for the Senate, it leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Cygnal research organization released an MI-7 survey (Aug. 27-29; 420 likely MI-7 voters; live interview & text) that finds Republican former state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43 percent count. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.

MT-1: New Poll Shows Even Tighter Race — Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week’s release of the Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MI-1 voters; live interview & text). The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Tranel 49-43 percent, but the challenger’s own internal poll arrives at a different result.

The Tranel campaign’s Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (Aug. 26-29; 500 likely MI-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44 percent, in the congressman’s favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke’s favorability index is an upside-down 41:51 percent positive to negative.

Rep. Zinke defeated Tranel 50-46 percent in 2022. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump scored a 52-45 percent victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another under-performing election.

Primary Results

Delaware: Mayer Wins Gov Primary — New Castle County Executive Mike Meyer easily defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long by just over 10 percentage points in last night’s Delaware Democratic gubernatorial primary. Hall-Long was saddled with campaign finance issues after failing to report funds paid directly to her husband. Mayer will now become the prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R-Newark) who claimed the GOP nomination with 72 percent of the vote.

In the Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) and businessman Eric Hansen (R) advance to the general election. Rep. Blunt Rochester is the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

In the open House race, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) convincingly won the Democratic primary with 80 percent of the vote, and becomes the heavy favorite to win the at-large seat in November against the new Republican nominee, retired businessman John Whalen.

New Hampshire: Primary Launches Competitive General Election Campaigns — The open governor’s race ended as expected, and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) will battle in November to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R). This will be a highly competitive general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott defeated businessman Hollie Noveletsky and Manchester City Alderman Joseph Levasseur in a close vote. Prescott now advances to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) who was a big winner on the Democratic side. The 1st District has a penchant for defeating incumbents but has stabilized since Pappas was originally elected in 2018.

In the open 2nd District with Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) retiring, competitive primaries in both parties yielded former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander defeating previous Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern to win the Democratic nomination after a nasty campaign.

On the Republican side, with 13 candidates, former Libertarian Party state chair Lily Tang Williams won the party nomination and advances to the general election. The 2nd District has proven competitive in the past, but it is already clear that Goodlander will have the inside track toward claiming the seat in November.

Rhode Island: No Opposition — No real opposition was present in this primary. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) all are headed toward easy re-election victories in November.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

Arizona Senate Race Draws Closer; Tester Rebounds in Montana; A Dead Heat in the Desert; Junge Ahead in MI-8; New Hampshire’s Late Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Closer Polling Results — The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), but the margin spread has been inconsistent. The latest release, from WPA Intelligence (for the Club for Growth; Aug. 11-13; 600 likely Arizona voters) sees the Gallego edge only at 48-46 percent.

Another four polls released in August, from four different pollsters, see the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points. A different study, from Peak Insights, surveying for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, projects the two candidates as tied. While the trends clearly favor Rep. Gallego, this is still a race that deserves political attention.

Montana: Tester Rebounds — After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research poll, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters), Sen. Tester posts a 49-44 percent advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana based aerospace company.

The poll has a basic flaw in that the sampling period is long (8 days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other polls have shown, former President Donald Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35 percent, according to the RMG Research results. The results also see 16 percent of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17 percent of Tester’s voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate as compared to 37 percent who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.

House

AZ-1: A Desert Dead Heat — On the heels of former state representative and physician Amish Shah’s (D) surprising win in the crowded July 30 Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Aug. 1-4; 500 likely AZ-1 general election voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanics; live interview and text) conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah tied with 48 percent of the vote.

The poll is not particularly eye-opening since less than a percentage point decided Rep. Schweikert’s 2022 re-election outcome.

MI-8: Junge Ticks Ahead in Late Pre-Primary Survey — Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on Aug. 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of their Global Strategy Group survey. The poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 general election voters; live interview and text), though taken just before the general election officially began here on Aug. 7, finds Junge posting a one-point lead over Sen. Rivet, 45-44 percent. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Craig & Ayotte Lead Primary Race — As we approach the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College released the results of their latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races.

The St. Anselm’s poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 670 likely Democratic primary voters; 657 likely Republican primary voters; online) find former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27 percent. For the Republicans, Ayotte’s margin is much larger over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ayotte a 59-25 percent advantage. St. Anselm’s did not release general election results.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

Sheehy Up in Montana; New Mexico Senate Race Tightens; Fong’s Opponent Drops Out; Nevada Abortion Initiative on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 8, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Up Beyond Margin of Error — After not finding much polling data for this critically important Senate race during the early part of the election cycle, we are now seeing plentiful surveying activity. The latest poll comes from Torchlight Strategies for the Common Sense for America conservative political action committee. The study (June 22-26; 649 registered Montana voters) sees retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) leading three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), 47-41 percent. Two recent surveys from Public Opinion Strategies and Fabrizio Lee & Associates both cast the Senate race as a dead heat.

Consistent with the two other most recent polls, former President Donald Trump is staked to a large lead in the Torchlight survey. The result finds Trump topping President Joe Biden, 51-35 percent. With such a strong Republican lead at the top of the ticket, thus setting the turnout model, it will be difficult for Sen. Tester to overcome what will likely be late Republican election momentum in this state.

New Mexico: Senate Race Tightens — As the presidential race grows tighter and expands into several unlikely states, a new 1892 polling organization survey (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts President Biden to only a one-point New Mexico lead over Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), 43-42-8 percent, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42 percent advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Sen. Pete Domenici (R). This is a long-shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.

House

CA-20: Rep. Fong’s Opponent Suspends — Through various elections and court challenges, newly elected California US Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has already secured his seat for a full term in the next Congress. Last week, Fong’s lone general election opponent, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R), who finished behind Fong in the regular and special primary elections before losing 61-39 percent in the May 21 special general election, announced that he is suspending his regular general election campaign and endorses the new incumbent for re-election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-20, the seat of former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), as R+31 making it the safest Republican seat in California. The fact that Fong had placed ahead of Sheriff Boudreaux three times suggested that him winning re-election in November was becoming a virtual certainty.

States

Nevada: Abortion Initiative Qualifies –– Silver State election officials yesterday announced that the initiative to codify the state’s abortion law into the Nevada Constitution will be on the general election ballot. The Secretary of State confirmed that the movement proponents had gathered the necessary valid petition signatures to put the measure before the voters.

Under Nevada election law, initiatives must qualify in consecutive elections. Therefore, even if this abortion related measure passes in 2024, it will return for a second vote in 2026. National Democratic strategists want abortion propositions on the ballot because they will likely spur turnout among some lower propensity left-of-center voters. The Nevada Democratic strategists will highlight their candidates’ support for this particular ballot measure, in order to increase support for President Biden, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and the party’s congressional nominees.