Tag Archives: Montana

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

Arizona Senate Race Draws Closer; Tester Rebounds in Montana; A Dead Heat in the Desert; Junge Ahead in MI-8; New Hampshire’s Late Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Closer Polling Results — The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), but the margin spread has been inconsistent. The latest release, from WPA Intelligence (for the Club for Growth; Aug. 11-13; 600 likely Arizona voters) sees the Gallego edge only at 48-46 percent.

Another four polls released in August, from four different pollsters, see the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points. A different study, from Peak Insights, surveying for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, projects the two candidates as tied. While the trends clearly favor Rep. Gallego, this is still a race that deserves political attention.

Montana: Tester Rebounds — After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research poll, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters), Sen. Tester posts a 49-44 percent advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana based aerospace company.

The poll has a basic flaw in that the sampling period is long (8 days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other polls have shown, former President Donald Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35 percent, according to the RMG Research results. The results also see 16 percent of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17 percent of Tester’s voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate as compared to 37 percent who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.

House

AZ-1: A Desert Dead Heat — On the heels of former state representative and physician Amish Shah’s (D) surprising win in the crowded July 30 Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Aug. 1-4; 500 likely AZ-1 general election voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanics; live interview and text) conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah tied with 48 percent of the vote.

The poll is not particularly eye-opening since less than a percentage point decided Rep. Schweikert’s 2022 re-election outcome.

MI-8: Junge Ticks Ahead in Late Pre-Primary Survey — Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on Aug. 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of their Global Strategy Group survey. The poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 general election voters; live interview and text), though taken just before the general election officially began here on Aug. 7, finds Junge posting a one-point lead over Sen. Rivet, 45-44 percent. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Craig & Ayotte Lead Primary Race — As we approach the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College released the results of their latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races.

The St. Anselm’s poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 670 likely Democratic primary voters; 657 likely Republican primary voters; online) find former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27 percent. For the Republicans, Ayotte’s margin is much larger over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ayotte a 59-25 percent advantage. St. Anselm’s did not release general election results.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

Sheehy Up in Montana; New Mexico Senate Race Tightens; Fong’s Opponent Drops Out; Nevada Abortion Initiative on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 8, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Up Beyond Margin of Error — After not finding much polling data for this critically important Senate race during the early part of the election cycle, we are now seeing plentiful surveying activity. The latest poll comes from Torchlight Strategies for the Common Sense for America conservative political action committee. The study (June 22-26; 649 registered Montana voters) sees retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) leading three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), 47-41 percent. Two recent surveys from Public Opinion Strategies and Fabrizio Lee & Associates both cast the Senate race as a dead heat.

Consistent with the two other most recent polls, former President Donald Trump is staked to a large lead in the Torchlight survey. The result finds Trump topping President Joe Biden, 51-35 percent. With such a strong Republican lead at the top of the ticket, thus setting the turnout model, it will be difficult for Sen. Tester to overcome what will likely be late Republican election momentum in this state.

New Mexico: Senate Race Tightens — As the presidential race grows tighter and expands into several unlikely states, a new 1892 polling organization survey (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts President Biden to only a one-point New Mexico lead over Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), 43-42-8 percent, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42 percent advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Sen. Pete Domenici (R). This is a long-shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.

House

CA-20: Rep. Fong’s Opponent Suspends — Through various elections and court challenges, newly elected California US Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has already secured his seat for a full term in the next Congress. Last week, Fong’s lone general election opponent, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R), who finished behind Fong in the regular and special primary elections before losing 61-39 percent in the May 21 special general election, announced that he is suspending his regular general election campaign and endorses the new incumbent for re-election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-20, the seat of former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), as R+31 making it the safest Republican seat in California. The fact that Fong had placed ahead of Sheriff Boudreaux three times suggested that him winning re-election in November was becoming a virtual certainty.

States

Nevada: Abortion Initiative Qualifies –– Silver State election officials yesterday announced that the initiative to codify the state’s abortion law into the Nevada Constitution will be on the general election ballot. The Secretary of State confirmed that the movement proponents had gathered the necessary valid petition signatures to put the measure before the voters.

Under Nevada election law, initiatives must qualify in consecutive elections. Therefore, even if this abortion related measure passes in 2024, it will return for a second vote in 2026. National Democratic strategists want abortion propositions on the ballot because they will likely spur turnout among some lower propensity left-of-center voters. The Nevada Democratic strategists will highlight their candidates’ support for this particular ballot measure, in order to increase support for President Biden, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and the party’s congressional nominees.

Surprising Wisconsin Presidential Poll, Yet Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead & Close WI House Race; Sheehy Leading in Latest Montana Survey; Good’s Virginia Recount Timetable

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 2, 2024

President

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Yields Surprising Responses — Marquette University Law School released their quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and found some seemingly inconsistent answers particularly relating to former President Donald Trump’s New York conviction.

Marquette poll yields surprising results. (Click here or on image above to see: Marquette University Law School’s released quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll)

On the presidential ballot test question, the registered voter sample broke 50-50 percent between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump when undecideds were pushed, and 44-44 percent on the initial question. Among those respondents considering themselves definite or likely voters, Biden held a 51-49 percent edge when respondents were pushed. When the independent and minor party candidates were added to the questionnaire, Trump went ahead 43-40 percent.

Perhaps most noteworthy, in responding to the question regarding Trump’s conviction, by a 54-28 percent margin, independents believe the former president is guilty of the charges. Yet, on the ballot test question, independents still broke for Trump 57-41 percent. This means that many of the Wisconsin respondents who believe Trump was guilty are still willing to vote for him in the general election.

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leading in Latest Survey — Largely confirming the previously published Emerson College poll, a new survey again shows former President Trump with a huge Montana lead and GOP US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy far behind the top of the ticket but still within a position to win. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (June 3-5; 500 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sheehy pulling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) with a 46-43-4 percent lead. The ballot test included Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, but not Green Party nominee Robert Barb. Both are expected to be on the general election ballot.

In a straight Tester-Sheehy head-to-head result, the two men are tied at 48 percent apiece, but 41 of Sheehy’s 48 percent say they are definitely voting for him versus only 35 percent of Sen. Tester’s contingent who say likewise.

Former President Trump leads President Biden by a whopping 54-36 percent. The generic question, i.e., “would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for senator,” breaks 52-40 percent in favor of the Republican.

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead in Regular Poll — As stated in the presidential section above, the Marquette Law School released their regular quarterly poll of the Wisconsin electorate (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and in the Senate race again finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Republican Eric Hovde by a 52-47 percent count when the undecided respondents were prompted to make a choice. On the initial question, Sen. Baldwin led 45-38 percent with 17 percent indicating they are undecided.

House

WI-3: Looming Close Race — The GQR survey research firm went into the field over the June 10-16 period (400 likely WI-3 general election voters; live interview) and finds western Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) holding only a small lead over small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D). The ballot test favors the freshman congressman by just a 50-46 percent margin. Van Orden’s favorability index, however, is barely positive at 41:40 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District is anchored in the city of La Crosse and spans through all or part of 19 western counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a virtually even partisan lean. Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 51.5 – 46.8 percent victory margin despite losing the statewide count. Prior to Van Orden converting this seat to the Republican column in 2022, Democrat Ron Kind represented the district for 26 years.

VA-5: Rep. Good’s Recount Timetable — Local news reports are confirming that Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) will request and pay for a recount of the June 18 primary results that find him trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) by 374 votes according to the Virginia Board of Elections official count. The certification deadline is July 2 — today. After certification, a candidate can request a recount.

Though a 374-vote difference is not large — it translates into six tenths of a percentage point from a turnout of 62,792 votes — it is unlikely that a recount will change the final totals by such an amount. Rep. Good is also challenging the handling of ballots in the city of Lynchburg, a locality where the congressman won. Lynchburg election officials say the Good challenge would affect less than 10 ballots, even if his argument is proven correct.

Yesterday’s Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Primary Results

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) wins tight primary race.

Iowa: Closer Results Than Expected — In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) only scored a 56-44 percent renomination victory over businessman David Pautsch, who attacked over a series of her centrist votes. Pautsch had raised just $35,000 through the May 15 pre-primary disclosure period. Therefore, him holding Miller-Meeks to only 56 percent within her own party suggests significant incumbent weakness for the general election.

In the state’s western district, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) only scored a 60 percent win over former CIA agent Kevin Virgil who was backed by many of former US Rep. Steve King’s supporters. Rep. Feenstra holds Iowa’s safest congressional district and will now have little trouble winning a third term in November.

In the most competitive seat, the Des Moines-anchored 3rd District, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will face former Department of Agriculture official Lanon Baccam, who scored an easy 84 percent victory in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Nunn nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) with a less than a one-point margin.

Montana: No Surprises — Last evening in Montana went as expected. Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) both easily won renomination. Overall, Republican participation was greater as one would expect based upon vote trends from elections after 2012. Approximately 57 percent of those who cast a ballot in the primary did so on the Republican side.

Sen. Tester will now officially face retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) in the general election for what will be one of the most important Senate races on anyone’s ballot.

In the open 2nd District, State Auditor Troy Downing defeated former US Rep. Denny Rehberg, ex-DEA agent Stacy Zinn, and state superintendent for Public Instruction to score a 37-17-15-9 percent Republican primary victory. As the new 2nd District Republican nominee, Downing is virtually assured of succeeding retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana congressional district.

New Jersey: Rep. Menendez Wins — After being outspent and trailing in an early poll, freshman New Jersey US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) defended himself last night against a serious challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla to record a 54-36 percent renomination victory. In a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+47, the congressman’s primary win has unofficially secured him a second term. He also overcame the baggage he inherited from his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, and the latter’s criminal indictment and trial.

In the open Garden State Senate race, as predicted, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) easily won the Democratic primary, scoring 75 percent of the vote against two minor candidates. Republicans nominated real estate developer Curtis Bashaw with approximately 46 percent of the vote against three GOP opponents. Bashaw will advance to the general election against Rep. Kim and Sen. Menendez who is running as an Independent.

In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District, also as expected, state Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran) looks to have topped state Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel) by a 2:1 margin. Conaway will now have a relatively easy ride in the general election from a seat that redistricting transformed into a likely Democratic domain. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates NJ-3 as D+9.

New Mexico: Senate & House Races — All major candidates unopposed in both New Mexico and South Dakota; there was no drama in either state, and obviously no close results.

The New Mexico Senate race will feature Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and former hedge fund executive Nella Domenici (R), the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici (R). Unsurprisingly, turnout favored the Democrats last night, and though the Senate race has the underpinnings of a race that could be competitive, Sen. Heinrich remains a clear favorite for re-election.

Another major contest will be the rematch between 2nd District US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). The two battled to a close finish in 2022, with the challenger unseating the incumbent by less than a percentage point in a district redrawn to elect a Democrat. The rematch will be highly competitive and a race that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the next House majority.

South Dakota: Two Statewide Races — The only two statewide races will be the presidential and US House races. Both congressional candidates were unopposed yesterday, so we will see Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) defend his seat against retired school employee Sheryl Johnson (D). The congressman should have little trouble securing a fourth term in November.

Today’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Another primary day occurs today, and this time voters in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will complete their 2024 nomination process.

Iowa

Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Le Claire)

The Hawkeye State US House incumbents do not face any serious challenges, but three of their four seats are extremely important to the House Republicans’ chances of holding their slim majority.

In the 1st District, a rematch of the 2022 campaign that saw Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) defeat then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) by a 53-46 percent count, is on tap for November. We can expect another competitive general election with Rep. Miller-Meeks favored to win. Congresswoman Miller-Meeks faces only minor primary opposition tonight.

Second District Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) sees a new opponent emerge in 2024, businesswoman Sarah Corkery (D). Both women are unopposed in their respective primaries. Rep. Hinson will be the clear favorite to claim a third term in November.

The state’s Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the pure toss-up CD. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) in 2022 with a less than one-point margin spread. Axne, who accepted an appointment in the Biden Administration, is not returning for a rematch. Democrats Lanon Baccam, the Department of Agriculture’s former Deputy Under Secretary, and non-profit executive Melissa Vine are battling for the Democratic nomination. Baccam is favored to win, and we can expect the 3rd District to again become the site of a very close congressional race.

In the western Iowa 4th District, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has little to worry about in tomorrow’s primary or the general election.

Montana

Turning to Big Sky Country, Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy both will overcome minor primary challenges and proceed into one of the most important Senate general elections in the nation. The winner of this race will go a long way to determining the next Senate majority.

Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) is also on the ballot running for a second four-year term. He also has only minor primary opposition and will likely cruise to re-election in November.

In the 1st Congressional District, we will likely see voters renominate both US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) and Democrat Monica Tranel who held the former to a closer than expected 50-46 percent result. The congressman leads Montana House candidates in fundraising, attracting over $5.2 million for the cycle. He is expected to perform better in this year’s general election.

It is almost a certainty that retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) successor will be determined tonight in the Republican primary. Through a crowded field of nine candidates, the GOP winner will likely be State Auditor Troy Downing, former Congressman Denny Rehberg, or state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen.

New Jersey

The Garden State is likely to produce the most interesting June 4 primary. Indicted US Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is not running in the Democratic primary but is submitting signatures at tomorrow’s deadline to qualify as an Independent. His candidacy is likely launched so he can tap the $3.6 million in campaign funds to pay for his legal fees.

The prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination is US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown). Once New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) ended her campaign, the victory path cleared for Rep. Kim. Four Republicans are fighting for the GOP nomination, but tomorrow’s winner will have little chance against Kim in November.

The most vulnerable House member seeking renomination is freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son. Saddled with his father’s negative publicity surrounding his bribery trial, Rep. Menendez has drawn a strong opponent in the person of Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Bhalla has out-raised the incumbent, and earlier polls found Bhalla even taking the lead among sampled Democrats. This is the race to watch tonight, and it is possible we could see the first Democratic incumbent defeat of the 2024 election cycle.

Rep. Menendez has been campaigning hard and has both Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Mrs. Murphy stumping for him. It remains to be seen if he has enough to withstand the family’s negative publicity and the strong challenge that Mayor Bhalla has afforded.

In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District Democratic primary, state assemblyman and physician Herb Conaway (D-Delran) is favored to defeat Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel). Post-redistricting, NJ-3 became a safe Democratic seat. Therefore, today’s Democratic primary winner will claim the seat in November.

The death of Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) has caused the 10th District primary to be nominated in a party convention after the July 16 special election to fill the balance of the term. It is a foregone conclusion that the special election nominee will become the anointed regular general election standard bearer and we will cover this district prior to the special election primary.

In other races, Reps. Chris Smith (R-Manchester), Frank Palone (D-Long Branch), Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield, Bill Pascrell (R-Paterson), Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D-Ewing Township) all face only minor opponents tomorrow night.

New Mexico

There are no challenged primaries in New Mexico major races. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and Nella Domenici (R) will advance into the general election in a race that promises to produce some competitive fireworks.

The major US House race comes in the form of a rematch in District 2 after then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) unseated then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) in 2022 by less than a percentage point from a district that was reconfigured to elect a Democrat. The rematch will again yield a competitive contest in a place where the Republicans will heavily target.

South Dakota

Though the Mount Rushmore State has a primary scheduled, there is no Senate or governor’s race, and the at-large House candidates are unopposed.

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) will face retired school employee Sheryl Johnson (D) in what will be another easy ride to re-election for the three-term congressional incumbent.

June Incumbent Challenges — Part I

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 30, 2024

Primaries

Now that we are through the Texas runoffs, it’s time to look at a very active primary schedule for the month of June with voters in 14 states choosing their nominees for the general election.

We begin Part I of our two-part series with the June 4 primaries that feature New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Only in New Jersey, however, do we see a competitive primary challenge to an incumbent House member.

New Jersey freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City)

New Jersey — Rep. Rob Menendez is fighting for renomination burdened with political baggage from his father’s legal woes. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is currently on trial for bribery charges and could possibly see a verdict before the June 4 primary. Rep. Menendez has been heavily advertising recently, attempting to defend himself against a difficult Democratic primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla.

Through the May 15 pre-primary candidate financial disclosure filing, Mayor Bhalla actually out-raised Rep. Menendez, $2.02 million to $1.64 million. Menendez has the key endorsements and organizational backing, but the latest released poll, from the Global Strategy Group in early April, found the mayor leading Rep. Menendez by a 33-28 percent margin. This will be the challenge race to watch on June 4.

South Carolina — We have primary voting in South Carolina, Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota on June 11. The incumbent challenges to follow on this day are in South Carolina’s 1st and 4th Districts. Here, Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville) are defending themselves against former Haley Administration official and ex-gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville), respectively.

Rep. Mace has an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, but as one of the members who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, she is under attack from outside organizations.

The campaign’s latest published poll comes from Emerson College (May 19-21; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and projects Rep. Mace to be holding a 47-22 percent lead over Ms. Templeton. The danger Mace faces, however, is failing to hit the 50 percent mark. If so, the race advances into a two-week runoff period where the top two finishers will square off in a June 25 secondary election.

Across the state in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th District, Rep. Timmons again faces a serious primary challenge. In 2022, in a field of three opponents, Rep. Timmons, then a freshman congressman, received only 52.7 percent of the Republican primary vote. With the Democrats not even fielding a candidate in the 4th District, Rep. Timmons was home free once he won the primary election.

Reports of an extra-marital affair dragged Timmons’ image down and he managed to win only a relatively tight Republican primary contest that saved him from having a very short congressional career.

This time the anti-Timmons vote is centered around just one candidate, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville). Though former President Trump has endorsed Rep. Timmons, much of the conservative base is gravitating toward Morgan. The congressman is regarded as at least a slight favorite, but an upset here remains a possibility.

Oklahoma — Turning to June 18, the state of Oklahoma hosts one major incumbent primary. Just north of the Red River, which separates the Sooner State and Texas, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) defends himself in what is turning into an expensive primary.

The congressman’s opponent is insurance executive Paul Bondar who plans to drop at least $2 million of his own money into the race and is already advertising extensively on electronic media. The message attacks Cole as an insider who has lost touch with his constituency and refers to him as a resident of the “Washington Swamp.”

Rep. Cole is also spending heavily and going on offense, bringing to the forefront that Bondar has only recently moved to Oklahoma to the point where he even voted in Texas earlier this year. He also illustrates that Bondar’s real community ties are still in Texas.

Rep. Cole is responding aggressively in this primary race, but the closing days of this campaign will be interesting. The congressman is favored to win, but how the race concludes is well worth watching.

Utah GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment; After Just Filing for FL-8 Race, Posey Withdraws; Rehberg Trails in MT-2 Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 29, 2024

States

Riverton, Utah Mayor Trent Staggs

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment — After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox fell to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33 percent vote. To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40 percent of the delegate vote. While the governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed to get the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary.

In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs rode former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which was announced just before the convention began. Staggs proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30 percent victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo).

The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process. Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot. Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton. Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, did not receive 40 percent delegate support. Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition.

In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40 percent threshold. Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation. In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork). Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence. The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election.

House

FL-8: Rep. Posey Withdraws — After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida US Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race.

Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee. Since Florida does not extend candidate filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 30-year office holder. In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house.

Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies. For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy.

Florida’s 8th District, that stretches from Titusville to Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+23. Former President Trump carried the district, 58-41 percent, in 2020. The Posey retirement means there are now 52 open seats headed into the next election, with 26 coming from the Democratic Conference versus the Republicans’ 25. One seat is newly created in Alabama.

MT-2: Ex-Rep. Rehberg Trails in New Poll — Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (April 14-17; 400 likely MT-2 Republican primary voters). The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10 percent.

Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for 12 years after serving six years as lieutenant governor, is being heavily outspent. Downing, through March 31, had spent just over $630,000 compared to Rehberg’s $7,300. The former congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000.

The winner of the June 4 primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat.

Former Navy SEAL Edges Tester in New Montana Poll; California Appeals Court Upholds Pro-Fong Ruling; Challenger to Florida Rep. Lee

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 11, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Edges Tester in New Poll — JL Partners returned a poll for the Montana State News Bureau (March 26-29; 503 likely Montana voters) and, for the first time this year, data shows the Republican challenger leading Sen. Jon Tester (D) as he attempts to secure a fourth term.

The survey finds presumptive Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, an aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL, edging the senator 48-45 percent in one of the most important races to determine the next Senate majority.

The questionnaire did not contain a question about the presidential race, but Montana is again expected to be one of former President Donald Trump’s strongest states. Thus, a favorable Republican turnout model will also elevate Sheehy’s chances.

House

CA-20: Appeals Court Upholds Pro-Fong Ruling — A California appellate court upheld the lower court ruling that allowed Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) to compete in the congressional race after he was certified as a candidate for state Assembly. The Secretary of State barred Fong from entering the regular congressional primary under the premise that an individual cannot seek two public offices simultaneously. Through court ruling, Fong, in fact, did seek both offices, placing first in the congressional regular election and runoff, while running unopposed for the Assembly.

The appellate court ruling for the state would have sent the Central Valley political situation into chaos and, as the judges stated, would have invalidated a legitimate election. Such a move would have led to even more ambiguity, confusion, and additional special elections not only for the vacant US House seat, but also for Fong’s Assembly district should the assemblyman successfully win the congressional special election set for May 21. At this time, he is favored to win both the special and general election. Upon winning the special, Fong would immediately replace former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R), who resigned.

It is possible that Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) could still continue along the appellate process, hopefully, from her perspective, convincing the state Supreme Court to address the matter. Unless that happens, Fong is likely headed to Congress.

FL-15: Candidate Comes Forth to Challenge Rep. Lee — In March, former President Trump called upon Tampa Bay area Republicans to field a primary challenger to freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) because she endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the ’24 presidential campaign. Now, James Judge, who ran in the area’s 14th District against entrenched Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) in 2022, is answering the call and will switch districts. He began the ’24 election cycle attempting to challenge Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) in adjacent District 12.

Rep. Lee should still be considered a heavy favorite, however. Judge, running in a D+14 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, recorded 43 percent of the vote against Rep. Castor. This is the type of performance one would expect for a Republican congressional nominee in such a Democratic district. Additionally, he spent just over $200,000 for that race, indicating he doesn’t have much fundraising ability, and a judge had to award him ballot placement in the 2022 election because he did not file the proper candidate forms, which originally led to his disqualification.

Rep. Lee was elected to the House with 59 percent of the vote in the last election from a district that 538 rates as R+7, but one that Trump carried only 51-48 percent. Prior to running for Congress, Lee served as a Circuit Court judge and as secretary of state when Gov. DeSantis appointed her to the position. In 2022, she won a five-way open Republican primary by just under 14 points against her closest competitor.