Tag Archives: Mike Franken

Grassley in Competitive Race in Iowa; Florida House Polling Series; Leaders in NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — July 20, 2022

Senate

Gaining on Grassley? Retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, Democratic Iowa Senate candidate.

Iowa: Sen. Grassley in Competitive Race — Selzer & Company, which rates an A+ rating from the FiveThirtyEight poll ranking apparatus and is widely viewed as Iowa’s most consistent pollster, went into the field over the July 8-11 period. They interviewed 811 adults, 597 who identified themselves as likely voters. The Senate ballot test broke only 47-39 percent in Sen. Chuck Grassley’s favor over retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, the Democratic nominee.

Though Sen. Grassley has the advantage beyond the polling margin of error, the race has signs of becoming competitive. The senator will be 89 years of age at the time of the election, which may be one reason he is trailing 40-30 percent with voters 35 years of age and younger. He continues perform strongly with men, 56-33 percent, but falls behind Admiral Franken with women, 44-38 percent.

Iowa is a Senate race to watch during the rest of the campaign. Contrasting the Grassley numbers, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds holds a strong 48-31 percent advantage over Democratic nominee Deirdre DeJear.

House

Florida: A House Polling Series — The Republican Party of Florida contracted with the Tyson Group research firm to conduct a series of GOP primary polls in the state’s new open congressional districts.

In the Jacksonville area’s new 4th CD, state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean leads college professor Erick Aguilar, 24-14 percent. Just to the south in the new Volusia County 7th District, businessman and Iraq War veteran Cory Mills and state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in the-Hills) are in a virtual tie with Mills leading Sabatini, 23-21 percent.

Turning to the St. Petersburg seat of Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna leads attorney Kevin Hayslett and lobbyist and 2020 candidate Amanda Makki, 37-17-10 percent. The new Hillsborough County 15th CD features a virtual three-way tie among state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland) who has 13 percent support, with Secretary of State Laurel Lee and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa) each trailing with 10 percent apiece.

NY-10: New Poll Confirms Leaders — The Justice Research Group, polling for state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Nioh (D) and the Working Families Party largely confirms last week’s Data for Progress poll that finds NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera and Nioh at the top of the Democratic candidate throng competing for the new open Lower Manhattan congressional seat. Each posted a preference figure of 16 percent in this poll. There is no runoff law in New York, so the eventual nominee will almost assuredly win with just plurality support.

Like the DfP poll, the Justice Research survey finds both US Rep. Mondaire Jones, coming from his Westchester County seat, and ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio falling below the 10 percent plateau. In this survey, Rep. Jones posts only eight percent preference and de Blasio three percent. The pollsters, conducted the survey from July 1-11, and interviewed 636 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters through live conversations and texts.

NY-23: Party Chairman Trailing — While the Republican Party establishment is clearly behind NY GOP state chairman Nick Langworthy to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) in the new 23rd CD, a new poll suggests the likely Republican primary voters feel otherwise. The WPA Intelligence survey (July 9-11; 604 likely NY-23 Republican primary voters; live interview) finds former Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Padalino posting a whopping 54-24 percent lead over Langworthy.

This poll tested voters for the regular election. Neither Padalino or Langworthy are competing in the special election to fill the balance of the term, also to be held on primary day, Aug. 23. The Republican nominee in that race is political caretaker candidate Joe Sempolinski, the Steuben County Republican Party chairman.

The “Fail Up” Senate Candidates

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 16, 2021 — There is an interesting phenomenon developing in the 2022 US Senate races, and that is the number of currently leading primary nomination candidates who have lost their last race. No less than five current US Senate contenders, all topping the latest polling, were defeated the last time they were on the ballot, some even in political campaigns for offices with less prominence.

In recent election years, we’ve seen a number of candidates lose a race and then attempt to “fail up” in the next campaign year. Most of the time, the same result occurs. The seemingly lone exception to the rule is Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who lost a special election for the US House in 2017 only to run for the Senate in 2020 and be elected.

Turning to 2022 and the unusually high number of such “fail up” candidates allows us to see if this pattern can reverse itself, or if the vast majority of these contenders will again find themselves on the short end of the vote totals when their election cycle ends either in the nomination contest or general election.

The 2022 “fail up” Senate candidates are Abby Finkenauer (D) in Iowa, Adam Laxalt (R) from Nevada, Pat McCrory (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) in North Carolina, and Pennsylvania’s Sean Parnell (R). Dr. Al Gross, who lost the 2020 Senate race in Alaska is a possibility to enter the 2022 race in the Last Frontier, but so far has not announced his candidacy.

Finkenauer, a Democrat, is a former state representative and congresswoman from Dubuque, Iowa. She was elected to the House in 2018, only to lose her seat after one term, 50-47 percent, to current US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids).

Finkenauer is leading in early polling for the Senate Democratic nomination as she and retired Navy admiral and defeated 2020 US Senate candidate Mike Franken battle to challenge venerable Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) who has won seven US Senate elections. Early polling finds Finkenauer trailing by close to 20 points.

Laxalt was elected Nevada’s attorney general in 2014, but with only 46 percent of the vote in a place where his party swept all of the statewide offices in that election year with his being the lowest victory percentage. Laxalt then entered the open 2018 governor’s race but lost to current incumbent Steve Sisolak (D), 49-45 percent. The latest polling (September) finds him trailing Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by five points in a Mellman Group survey but holding a two-point lead in a study from WPA Intelligence.

North Carolina actually features candidates in both parties leading in nomination polling after losing their last race. McCrory is the former governor who lost his 2016 re-election campaign, even while Donald Trump and seven other Republicans were winning their statewide elections.

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