Tag Archives: Carl Padalino

Grassley in Competitive Race in Iowa; Florida House Polling Series; Leaders in NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — July 20, 2022

Senate

Gaining on Grassley? Retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, Democratic Iowa Senate candidate.

Iowa: Sen. Grassley in Competitive Race — Selzer & Company, which rates an A+ rating from the FiveThirtyEight poll ranking apparatus and is widely viewed as Iowa’s most consistent pollster, went into the field over the July 8-11 period. They interviewed 811 adults, 597 who identified themselves as likely voters. The Senate ballot test broke only 47-39 percent in Sen. Chuck Grassley’s favor over retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, the Democratic nominee.

Though Sen. Grassley has the advantage beyond the polling margin of error, the race has signs of becoming competitive. The senator will be 89 years of age at the time of the election, which may be one reason he is trailing 40-30 percent with voters 35 years of age and younger. He continues perform strongly with men, 56-33 percent, but falls behind Admiral Franken with women, 44-38 percent.

Iowa is a Senate race to watch during the rest of the campaign. Contrasting the Grassley numbers, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds holds a strong 48-31 percent advantage over Democratic nominee Deirdre DeJear.

House

Florida: A House Polling Series — The Republican Party of Florida contracted with the Tyson Group research firm to conduct a series of GOP primary polls in the state’s new open congressional districts.

In the Jacksonville area’s new 4th CD, state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean leads college professor Erick Aguilar, 24-14 percent. Just to the south in the new Volusia County 7th District, businessman and Iraq War veteran Cory Mills and state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in the-Hills) are in a virtual tie with Mills leading Sabatini, 23-21 percent.

Turning to the St. Petersburg seat of Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna leads attorney Kevin Hayslett and lobbyist and 2020 candidate Amanda Makki, 37-17-10 percent. The new Hillsborough County 15th CD features a virtual three-way tie among state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland) who has 13 percent support, with Secretary of State Laurel Lee and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa) each trailing with 10 percent apiece.

NY-10: New Poll Confirms Leaders — The Justice Research Group, polling for state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Nioh (D) and the Working Families Party largely confirms last week’s Data for Progress poll that finds NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera and Nioh at the top of the Democratic candidate throng competing for the new open Lower Manhattan congressional seat. Each posted a preference figure of 16 percent in this poll. There is no runoff law in New York, so the eventual nominee will almost assuredly win with just plurality support.

Like the DfP poll, the Justice Research survey finds both US Rep. Mondaire Jones, coming from his Westchester County seat, and ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio falling below the 10 percent plateau. In this survey, Rep. Jones posts only eight percent preference and de Blasio three percent. The pollsters, conducted the survey from July 1-11, and interviewed 636 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters through live conversations and texts.

NY-23: Party Chairman Trailing — While the Republican Party establishment is clearly behind NY GOP state chairman Nick Langworthy to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) in the new 23rd CD, a new poll suggests the likely Republican primary voters feel otherwise. The WPA Intelligence survey (July 9-11; 604 likely NY-23 Republican primary voters; live interview) finds former Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Padalino posting a whopping 54-24 percent lead over Langworthy.

This poll tested voters for the regular election. Neither Padalino or Langworthy are competing in the special election to fill the balance of the term, also to be held on primary day, Aug. 23. The Republican nominee in that race is political caretaker candidate Joe Sempolinski, the Steuben County Republican Party chairman.

Collins & Hunter Indictments:
The Political Status

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 24, 2018 — The news media has heavily covered the indictment proceedings against New York Rep. Chris Collins (R-Clarence/Batavia) and California Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) and though the legal process will drag on for some time against both men, their political situations will be resolved much sooner.

Both NY-27 and CA-50 are safe Republican seats, neither of which were major Democratic targets. News stories had been circulating that indictments were possible for both men, and safe republican districts california new yorkparticularly so of Rep. Hunter, but neither seat would have fallen into play without the legal flap. Now, the Republicans are even in danger of being shut out from what are typically safe GOP seats, just when their precarious majority is hanging in the balance.

When his insider trading indictment was announced, Rep. Collins’ first reaction was to continue running for re-election. But he quickly changed his mind and announced his intention to withdraw from the race. The problem is New York election law doesn’t allow party nominees such an easy out.

Since the NY federal primary has passed, there are only three ways a candidate can pull his or her name from the ballot.

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