Tag Archives: Jim Ellis

With Bush Officially In, New Polls Suggest Broker

June 17, 2015 — Just as former Florida governor and presidential son and brother Jeb Bush formally declared his national candidacy, several new polls were released all pointing to Republicans’ having no clear leader. The surveys provide further evidence that the underpinnings for a brokered convention continue to solidify.

Monmouth University (June 11-14; 1,002 adults; 351 likely Republican voters) released the results of their national poll, while the Morning Consult group (weekly surveying equaling 2,000 respondents; combination of live phone interviews and online responses) simultaneously tested the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina Republican electorates.

National polls, particularly in nomination contests, are not particularly useful because the contests are state-based. But, they can be a good momentum indicator. In this instance, Monmouth, using a very small 351-person sample segment, finds Dr. Ben Carson leading the group of 16 candidates but with just 11 percent preference.
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A Lot of Noes

June 16, 2015 — We witnessed a great many political “noes” this weekend, as Iowa Republicans voted to do away with their famous August straw poll event, and two potential major Senate candidates announced they would not run next year.

President

The Iowa Republican Party began the straw poll event in August of 1979, as a way to showcase their first-in-the nation caucus contest. Over the years, the event attracted major media attention and was generally viewed as the first official contest of the respective presidential campaign cycle. In the most recent years, it became the Iowa GOP’s top fundraising event for their entire election season. But, over this past weekend, the Iowa Republican Party Executive Committee voted 17-0 to end the famous informal poll.

Several reasons exist for the event’s elimination, which previously drew thousands to Iowa State University in Ames, the traditional event venue. First, the straw poll was never a good predictor as to who would win the Caucus event. For example, then-Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) placed first in the 2011 straw poll, which proved to be the high point of her campaign. Basically she was not heard from in a serious way after that. In fact, of the six straw poll events, only once did the outright August vote correctly foretell the actual Caucus winner (George W. Bush in 2000).
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Early Senate Rankings

May 26, 2015 — It’s not too early to begin handicapping the 2016 in-cycle Senate races, and projecting whether the Republicans’ can hold their hard-fought majority. Having to defend 24 of the 34 states hosting a Senate race, the Democrats have ample opportunity to convert the four GOP seats they need to re-claim control; or, five if presumed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton fails to keep the White House.

Beginning in easy fashion, the following Republicans and Democrats appear, at this time, safe for re-election:
Safe Republicans:
• Richard Shelby – Alabama
• John Boozman – Arkansas
• Johnny Isakson – Georgia
• Mike Crapo – Idaho
• Chuck Grassley – Iowa
• John Hoeven – North Dakota
• James Lankford – Oklahoma
• Tim Scott – South Carolina
• John Thune – South Dakota

Safe Democrats:
• Richard Blumenthal – Connecticut
• Brian Schatz – Hawaii
• Chuck Schumer – New York
• Ron Wyden – Oregon
• Patrick Leahy – Vermont
• Patty Murray – Washington
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Sanders Jumps In; Hillary Moves Left

May 1, 2015 — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders officially entered the Democratic presidential sweepstakes Wednesday, saying that he is not running just to move Hillary Clinton to the left. Sanders, elected to the Senate in 2006 after serving eight terms in the House, will be on the ballot as a Democrat for the first time.

A self-proclaimed socialist, the eccentric senator has served his entire congressional career as an Independent who only caucuses with the Democrats. Prior to winning his first federal election, Sanders presided for eight years as the mayor of Vermont’s largest city, Burlington.

In a move having little to do with Sanders entering the race, Hillary Clinton coincidentally delivered a major policy address from Columbia University that was a clear signal to her party’s left flank, however. But her speech motivation didn’t involve Sanders, who is of little threat to her for the Democratic presidential nomination, but rather to attempt to attract those on the far left aligning with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and solidify the most loyal of Democratic constituencies, African Americans. But, she may have opened herself up for serious attacks on a couple of fronts by doing so.
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The Manchin Reverberations

April 22, 2015 — Now that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has ended speculation about re-running for governor in his home state next year, a game of political musical chairs will soon begin in West Virginia. But, more importantly, the Manchin decision to stay where he is and seek re-election in 2018 vastly improves Democratic prospects of re-taking the Senate.

With the Republican legislature beginning to move legislation that would take Senate appointment power away from the governor, it was becoming apparent that Manchin vacating the seat would very likely allow Republicans a prime conversion opportunity in a 2017 special election. Effectively, such a move would have increased the number of seats Democrats need for a return to Senate majority status from 4 or 5, to 5 or 6. The lower number represents the required conversion total if a Democrat holds the White House in 2016, while the larger number comes into play if the eventual GOP presidential nominee wins. Obviously, it is in the party leaders’ interest to keep Manchin where he is, and they no doubt weighed in heavily upon him.

Since Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) is ineligible to seek re-election next year, we now have a competitive open seat gubernatorial race. Though Democrats have lost virtually everything they once held – all but Manchin’s Senate seat and this governor’s office – a West Virginia open statewide race can certainly be competitive.
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New Marquette Poll Shows
Johnson Down Big in Wisconsin

April 21, 2015 — Polling has been unkind to several senators during the past few days. Last week we reported on research studies showing both Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) trailing hypothetical opponents by very small margins. While a new Marquette University Law School survey finds yet another incumbent falling behind a challenger, this time the margin is anything but slight.

The Marquette data (April 7-10; 803 registered Wisconsin voters) finds former Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading incumbent Ron Johnson (R-WI) by a whopping 54-38 percent margin. Johnson unseated Feingold six years ago by a five percentage point spread and the former senator appears well positioned to re-enter elective politics.

Though Feingold has said little about the impending 2016 Senate race and has certainly not announced any intention to run, leaders from both parties expect him to again become a candidate. In February, Feingold resigned his appointed position as a State Department US Envoy to the African Great Lakes region, and many observers are surprised he has not yet announced or at least signaled his intention to run for the Senate. Polls such as the Marquette survey may hasten his decision.
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Coffman Over Bennet in Colorado Q-Poll, But are the Numbers Reliable?

April 17, 2015 — Quinnipiac University released a new Colorado statewide poll midweek (March 29-April 7; 894 Colorado registered voters) that surprisingly projects Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6) with a three-point lead over Sen. Michael Bennet (D), 43-40 percent, in a hypothetical 2016 US Senate contest.

Rep. Coffman has survived two difficult re-election battles since a court-drawn redistricting plan left him with largely a Democratic suburban Denver district. Though he has won against significant odds in both 2012 and 2014, he failed to reach 50 percent in the presidential year election.

Coffman ran tough campaigns both times, and spent a combined $8.4 million in securing his last two House terms. Originally winning a safe Republican seat in 2008, he was easily re-elected two years later (66-31 percent). Redistricting radically changed the 6th District after the 2010 census gave the seat 42 percent new territory and transformed it from a Republican district to one that supported President Obama with 54 and 52 percent of the vote in 2008 and 2012, respectively.

Based upon his record as a campaigner and prodigious fundraiser, the congressman appears to be the top choice of the National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership to challenge Sen. Bennet next year. Coffman, however, is not providing much indication that he is eager to run statewide, but polls such as this might provide greater encouragement. The congressman’s wife, Cynthia Coffman, was elected state attorney general last year, and she is also mentioned as a potential senatorial candidate. But, she is evidently less inclined than her husband to make the race.
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Capps Out in California;
The Cortez Masto Effect In Nevada

April 10, 2015 — Veteran California Rep. Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara), aged 77, announced Wednesday that she will not seek re-election to an eleventh term in office next year for her CA-24 seat. The congresswoman entered the House via a special election victory in 1998 after her husband, Rep. Walter Capps (D-CA), passed away suddenly; he was first elected in 1996 but suffered a fatal heart attack at the Washington Dulles Airport less than a year after winning his seat. Lois Capps finished her husband’s term and has been re-elected ever since.

The 24th District contains Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, along with part of Ventura. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission made this district much more competitive as Capps’ 55 and 52 percent victory margins in the past two elections suggest. The 2001 congressional map created a coastal district for Capps (then numbered CA-23), slanting the seat to the ideological left in order to help the Democratic incumbent hold the seat. Thanks in large part to map construction, Capps had little in the way of challenges throughout the decade.

But it was becoming clearer that Republicans have a chance to convert the new 24th as a direct result of including all of the more conservative San Luis Obispo County in the district. Republican Chris Mitchum, son of deceased actor Robert Mitchum, pulled 48 percent against the congresswoman in the last election despite spending less than one-quarter the amount of money of his opponent. A stronger candidate could possibly have done better perhaps even scored an upset over Capps in what became a very favorable Republican year.
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Florida Senate Numbers …
Without Rubio

Public Policy Polling released new survey numbers for what appears to be an upcoming open US Senate race, sans incumbent Marco Rubio (R). It appears likely that the senator will soon announce he is not seeking re-election in order to devote his full attention to a presidential run.

The PPP survey (March 19-22; 923 registered Florida voters; 425 self-identified Republicans; 371 self-identified Democrats) tested the Florida Senate race in various configurations late last week and found what most of us would expect to see in politically marginal Florida -– in an open seat situation, the campaign would become a toss-up.

First, Sen. Rubio was tested before the entire respondent universe, and he scored a 45:40 percent favorable to unfavorable job approval. From a firm that normally produces upside-down ratios almost across the board in response to this question, Rubio’s five-point positive is actually a lot stronger than it looks.

Against announced Democratic senatorial candidate Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL-18) and probable contender Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL-9), Rubio fares well considering the state’s 50/50 political nature.
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