Tag Archives: Hispanic

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard to Retire

By Jim Ellis

California Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Downey)

Dec. 23, 2021 — House retirement announcements keep coming, as late Monday veteran California Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Downey) made public her intention not to seek a 16th term next November.

In the 1992 election, Roybal-Allard, then a member of the California Assembly, won the open campaign to succeed her father, US Rep. Ed Roybal (D-CA), as he was concluding his own 30-year congressional career. Combined, the Roybal family will have held the Los Angeles County-based congressional district for 60 consecutive years when Rep. Roybal-Allard completes her current term at the beginning of 2023.

The congresswoman’s retirement announcement comes on the heels of fellow Los Angeles US Rep. Alan Lowenthal’s (D-Long Beach) pronouncement over the last weekend that he will not seek re-election. Both Roybal-Allard and Lowenthal are 80 years old.

The Lowenthal retirement apparently produced discussion within the California Citizens Redistricting Commission membership of collapsing his 47th District and combining it with Roybal-Allard’s 40th, which is nearby. They then agreed upon such a design, which would have meant a major constituency change for the congresswoman, taking her into a substantial amount of territory that she had not previously represented.

The redraw design makes sense particularly when seeing that the Roybal-Allard district, the most Hispanic seat in the nation with a population percentage exceeding 87 percent, is the CD also needing the greatest population influx, some 70,139 individuals, among the 35 California districts requiring more people.

Directly to the west of Roybal-Allard’s 40th lies Rep. Karen Bass’ 37th CD that includes Culver City and part of the Watts area. In late September, Bass announced that she will run for the open Los Angeles mayor’s office, becoming the first California member to create an open seat in the state delegation.

The original redistricting draft combined this district largely with Rep. Maxine Waters’ (D-Los Angeles) CD, but with Reps. Roybal-Allard and Lowenthal now retiring, combining their two seats became the logical redrafting move. The Bass district was then restored.

Combining the 40th and the 47th into a new 42nd CD in conjunction with other adjustments, allows the Commission members to meet the state’s population quota of 760,350 residents per district throughout the Los Angeles metro area. Together, the 18 districts that comprise LA County required a population influx exceeding 620,000 people, hence collapsing a central and southern Los Angeles County pair of districts into one became the commissioners’ most logical solution.

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Monday’s Retirement

California Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/Fullerton) | Facebook

California Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/Fullerton) | Facebook

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 10, 2018 — It’s getting to the point where literally every day we witness a new retirement announcement from Congress, and Monday was no exception.

In another surprise political decision, veteran California Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/Fullerton), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, disclosed that he will not seek a 14th term this year, preferring to dedicate his last year in Congress to finishing his committee agenda.

The move was unexpected in that Royce appeared to be preparing his political operation for a major battle. Reportedly through the year-end financial disclosure period, he already amassed a treasury exceeding $3.5 million. Until this week, his actions suggested that he was well equipped to run a strong re-election campaign.

Unlike most of the other 31 Republican seats that are being vacated for the next election, Royce’s California district has strong Democratic conversion potential. The constituency voted 51-43 percent for Hillary Clinton, but backed Mitt Romney 51-47 percent in 2012, and gave John McCain a 49-47 percent margin four years earlier. The Romney and McCain votes are more consistent with the district electorate’s long-term political performance history, but this area of the state, like many regions in the nation’s most populous domain, is turning more Democratic as significant demographic change continues.

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Coffman Over Bennet in Colorado Q-Poll, But are the Numbers Reliable?

April 17, 2015 — Quinnipiac University released a new Colorado statewide poll midweek (March 29-April 7; 894 Colorado registered voters) that surprisingly projects Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6) with a three-point lead over Sen. Michael Bennet (D), 43-40 percent, in a hypothetical 2016 US Senate contest.

Rep. Coffman has survived two difficult re-election battles since a court-drawn redistricting plan left him with largely a Democratic suburban Denver district. Though he has won against significant odds in both 2012 and 2014, he failed to reach 50 percent in the presidential year election.

Coffman ran tough campaigns both times, and spent a combined $8.4 million in securing his last two House terms. Originally winning a safe Republican seat in 2008, he was easily re-elected two years later (66-31 percent). Redistricting radically changed the 6th District after the 2010 census gave the seat 42 percent new territory and transformed it from a Republican district to one that supported President Obama with 54 and 52 percent of the vote in 2008 and 2012, respectively.

Based upon his record as a campaigner and prodigious fundraiser, the congressman appears to be the top choice of the National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership to challenge Sen. Bennet next year. Coffman, however, is not providing much indication that he is eager to run statewide, but polls such as this might provide greater encouragement. The congressman’s wife, Cynthia Coffman, was elected state attorney general last year, and she is also mentioned as a potential senatorial candidate. But, she is evidently less inclined than her husband to make the race.
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California Numbers: Big Shifts Mean Many Questions

The US Census Bureau released the California population numbers, and those predicting that the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County would reveal significant population downturns were correct. In all, only 20 Golden State districts are over-populated compared with 33 that must gain inhabitants. Of the seats falling behind the population growth rate, 27 are held by Democratic members and six by Republicans. Of the over-populated states, 13 are Republican-controlled while seven Democratic seats must shed inhabitants.

The two most over-populated seats are in the Inland Empire, where Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s 45th district and Ken Calvert’s 44th CD have 211,304 more people than required and 141,851, respectively. Rep. Buck McKeon’s 25th district, also partially in the Inland Empire, is next with an overage of 141,415 individuals.

The overwhelming growth pattern occurred among Hispanics. Despite California gaining almost 3.4 million residents, the state did not add congressional representation for the first time in its history. Though Hispanic growth exploded during the decade, increasing by 27.8%, the non-Hispanic population grew at a paltry 1.5%, for a statewide gain of 10%. This is right at the national average of 9.7% and explaining why the state remains constant with 53 districts. The California Anglo population is now only a slight plurality. Whites account for just 40.1% of the population with Hispanics right behind at 37.8%. Huge growth was also recorded within the California Asian population. They now register a total of 13%, up from 11% in 2000. African-Americans remained constant at 6% of the Golden State population make-up.

It is clear that Californians are moving away from the coastal cities and into the inland regions of the state. Ten Bay Area congressional districts (including the Monterey Peninsula) must gain people while only two are over-populated, and those share territory with communities in the central part of the state. In the Central Valley (Modesto, Fresno, Madera, Merced, Bakersfield), all five seats are over-populated. This means there will be a shift in representation from the Bay Area toward the Central Valley. In what configuration the new California Redistricting Commission decides to draw the seats, however, is anyone’s guess at this point in time. It’s a sure thing that at least one Bay Area representative will have to add substantial new territory from an area far different from his or her current constituency. This could lead to some interesting primary and general elections in 2012.

The same pattern holds true for southern California.

Because of California’s dramatic population shifts and the emergence of the new redistricting commission, the Golden State is truly a redistricting wild card. Much will happen here in the coming months.
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