Tag Archives: Gov. Spencer Cox

Five Republicans Lead Biden; Pelosi to Return; Hudson Announces in MI-3; Cox Draws GOP Challenge in Utah

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CNN Poll: Five Republicans Lead Biden — The new CNN national poll (conducted by the SSRS research company, CNN’s regular polling firm; Aug. 25-31; 1,503 US adults; live interview & text) found no fewer than five of the announced Republican presidential candidates holding small leads over President Joe Biden in general election ballot tests.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley fared best, scoring a six-point advantage over the president. Two-point leaders included former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Former President Donald Trump held a one-point edge, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tied Biden. The only Republican contender to fall behind Biden, and by only one point, is businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

This poll, consistent with many other findings, again sees the Republicans doing better in a sample comprised of adults as opposed to registered or likely voters. This suggests the GOP is doing better than Democrats with non-voters, meaning the party will have to find a way to identify, register, and turn these habitual non-voters into participants.

House

CA-11: Rep. Pelosi to Return — Though many expected 83-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) to retire, she instead announced a re-election bid for a 20th term in Congress late last week. In her statement, Rep. Pelosi said, “our country needs America to show the world that our flag is still there, with liberty and justice for ALL. That is why I am running for reelection — and respectfully ask for your vote.” She will easily be renominated and re-elected next year.

MI-3: Ex-Judicial Candidate Announces for Congress — Attorney and Michigan Supreme Court judicial candidate Paul Hudson (R), who finished fourth in a field of five 2022 candidates, announced for Congress at the end of last week. He hopes to oppose freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3.

Last November, Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs, 55-42 percent, after he upset one-term Rep. Peter Meijer (R) in the GOP primary. The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission transformed what was a safe Republican 3rd District that originally elected Meijer to one that favors the Democrats.

Hudson is the third announced Republican candidate but is clearly the most credible. Should he prevail in the Aug. 6, 2024, GOP primary, assessments will be made as to whether he will become a top-tier challenger candidate. MI-3, however, is the type of politically marginal district that the GOP must win in 2024 in order to protect and enhance the party’s slim majority.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox Draws GOP Challenge — State Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), who hails from San Juan County in the far southeastern corner of the Beehive State, which includes the “Four Corners” where Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico meet, announced he will challenge Republican Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican convention and potentially the state primary.

Lyman, a land rights radical, received a pardon from former President Trump after the government arrested him for his protest activities. Gov. Cox may not be particularly popular with the Republican base, so Lyman may have a chance to assemble a significant support coalition at the state convention.

Christie Gains Support; Indiana’s Holcomb Will Not Make Senate Bid; House Roundup: California, MD, Utah

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 19, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

National Research Poll: Christie Shows — A new National Research poll conducted for the American Greatness Super PAC (June 12-14; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters) finds former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Granite State, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drops down several points from the group’s last survey. In a surprise, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie bolts into a third place tie with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at seven percent apiece.

A point the pollsters made revolves around New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu deciding not to run for president. At least in this first poll taken after his announcement, the results did not help Gov. DeSantis as expected. Instead, the pollsters indicated the Sununu support appeared to gravitate to either Sen. Scott or ex-Gov. Christie.

Senate

Indiana: Gov. Holcomb Won’t Run — Term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) announced that he will not enter the US Senate race or run for any other office in 2024. The governor taking a pass on the Senate race means US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the May 7, 2024, Republican primary. He will be viewed as a lock to win the general election as the Democrats have yet to produce a competitive candidate. Incumbent Sen. Mike Braun (R) is not seeking re-election in order to run for governor.

House

CA-31: Former Dem Mayor Files Against Rep. Napolitano — Community College Trustee and former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz (D) filed candidacy documents with the Federal Election Commission for her southern California congressional district. If she formally files, the race could lead to a Democrat vs. Democrat general election under California’s all-party jungle primary system.

It is also possible that Lutz is creating a placeholder committee in case 86-year-old incumbent Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) decides to retire.

MD-6: Lieutenant Governor Won’t Run — Maryland Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D) announced late last week that she will not enter the open 6th Congressional District race. Miller ran for the seat in 2018 when it was last open, finishing second in the Democratic primary to eventual winner David Trone. With Trone now running for the Senate, the politically competitive 6th District is now open again.

At this point five Democrats and three Republicans have announced their candidacies. On the Democratic side, two state Delegates are in the race, Lesley Lopez (D-Montgomery Village) and Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County). Two-time GOP nominee Neil Parrott has not yet entered the race. Defeated GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox also claims to be considering the congressional contest but has yet to make a final decision.

UT-2: Special Election Candidate Filing Closes — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for Sept. 5 and the special general on Nov. 21. The candidate filing period has now closed. A total of 13 Republicans, three Democrats, and six minor party or Independent candidates have filed.

For the Republicans — who will be favored to hold the seat — former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state Rep. and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough are official candidates, and at this point comprise the first tier. For the Democrats, the leading contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights).

The political parties will now call a special district convention. The delegates will nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process.

Trump Under-Performs in Georgia Poll; Wisconsin Rep. Gallagher Out; UT-2 Special Election Set; Hickingbottom Out – Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 13, 2023

President

How fares a generic GOP candidate or former President Donald Trump vs. President Joe Biden?

Georgia Poll: Trump Under-Performs vs. Generic Republican — A political action committee associated with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — the Hardworking Americans PAC — released a Cygnal poll of the Peach State Republican electorate (June 5-7; 600 likely Georgia general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) and the results find that a generic-labeled Republican candidate performs much better against President Biden than does former President Donald Trump.

The poll showed that when asked if the respondent would favor President Joe Biden or a Republican candidate, the generic GOP candidate would lead by double digits, 48-38 percent. If Trump were the Republican candidate, however, the race resolves into a virtual tie, with the former president scoring 42.0 percent and Biden attracting 41.4 percent support. Arguably, Georgia is the most important bellwether state on the 2024 presidential map. Considering the swing states in play, a Republican candidate cannot win the presidency in 2024 without taking Georgia.

Senate

Wisconsin: Rep. Gallagher Out — Wisconsin Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay), who appeared to be the Republican leadership’s top Senate candidate recruitment target, said on Friday that he will not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year. Gallagher is moving up the House ladder and wants to remain on that path. Some believe he will instead wait until 2028 to make a statewide move when Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is expected to retire.

A new poll found former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke leading the Republican field, though he is not an announced candidate. Rep. Gallagher was a strong second. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) is testing the Senate political waters, so chances of him pursuing a statewide bid considering the Gallagher decision may increase.

House

UT-2: Special Election Set — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for Sept. 5 and the special general on Nov. 21; the candidate filing period closes on Wednesday. Therefore, individuals have little time to declare their candidacies.

For the Republicans, who will be favored to hold the seat, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state representative and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough have announced they will run, and at this point comprise the first tier. Several others are expected to run also. For the Democrats, the lone pre-filing contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights).

After filing closes, the parties will call a special district convention. The delegates will then nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process.

Governor

Mississippi: Hickingbottom Out Again — Earlier in the year, the Mississippi Democratic Party disqualified candidate Bob Hickingbottom from running for governor in the Democratic primary, saying he did not meet the signature requirement and because he previously ran statewide on a third party line. In late May, Hickingbottom won his court challenge to the Democrats’ ruling and was placed back on the primary ballot.

On Friday, however, the Mississippi state Supreme Court overturned the lower court decision and ruled that the MDP has the right to disqualify Hickingbottom. Therefore, Hickingbottom will be prohibited from running in the Democratic primary. The decision restores Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley to unopposed status for the party nomination. Democratic leaders wanted this to give Presley the biggest advantage possible as he tries to unseat Gov. Tate Reeves (R) in the 2023 general election.

Polls Show Republican Presidential Race Getting Tighter; A Twist in Wisconsin; SCOTUS Rules on Alabama Redistricting; Special Election in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 12, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump still up, but down in polling.

State Polls: Republican Race Getting Tighter — Two very recent Republican presidential state polls were released late last week, one from Wisconsin and the other in Utah. While the Wisconsin spread is typical of what we are seeing in other places, the Utah poll has closed to within one percentage point.

Public Policy Polling (June 5-6; 507 likely Wisconsin voters) sees former President Donald Trump leading the Wisconsin GOP primary but with well less than majority support. The ballot test gives the former president a 41-25 percent lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence is next with eight percent support, and no one else breaks five percent. In an isolation question featuring Trump and DeSantis, the former pPresident leads this only 43-39 percent.

The Utah numbers are much closer. In this Dan Jones & Associates poll for the Utah Republican Party (May 22-June 1; 421 registered Utah Republican voters), Trump’s advantage is only 27-26 percent over Gov. DeSantis.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, not even a candidate, places third with seven percent, and no other candidate breaks the five percent mark. However, this poll’s long sampling period and small respondent universe, along with the introduction of Cheney into the mix, casts an accuracy shadow over this poll.

Senate

Wisconsin: Polling Leader Emerges; Not the GOP’s Top Choice — The Wisconsin Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the state’s US Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D).

The Republican primary ballot test suggests that former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke would lead a prospective group of GOP candidates with 40 percent preference. Placing second is Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) with 20 percent, followed by Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) at 10 percent. Clarke is not an official candidate, and viewed as someone who would be unlikely to win the general election. So far, Rep. Gallagher has not made a discernible move to enter the Senate race. Rep. Tiffany is testing the waters.

The Wisconsin race could become competitive, but Sen. Baldwin would begin any general election as the favorite to win in November.

House

Redistricting: SCOTUS Rules on Alabama — The US Supreme Court, on a 5-4 decision with Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh joining the majority, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case. Therefore, the Alabama map will be redrawn to reflect a second minority district from the state’s seven seats. Louisiana will likely have to be redrawn as well.

Possible redraws could occur in several other southern states. The ruling is clearly a win for the Democrats and gives them even better odds of re-capturing the House majority in the 2024 election.

UT-2: Special Election Set — Since Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) submitted an irrevocable letter of resignation for Sept. 15 to Gov. Spencer Cox (R), that action has allowed the state’s chief executive to set at least the special primary election even before the congressman officially leaves office.

Under Utah law, the governor must schedule the special congressional election concurrent with another election. The municipal elections were scheduled for Aug. 15 and Nov. 7, but Gov. Cox is preparing to send the legislature a measure to change those dates to Sept. 5 and Nov. 21 and add the special congressional election to that ballot. These dates meet the federal electoral notice requirements.

The legislature is expected to comply. If they do not, the 2nd District seat could remain vacant for more than a year awaiting the regular primary schedule.

In this instance, the seat will be filled while Rep. Stewart remains in office, which is similar to the Oklahoma law that allows a resigning elected official to serve until a replacement is selected.

Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent; IA-3 Re-Match Doubtful; Stewart Officially Resigns in Utah; Johnston Wins in Denver

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 9, 2023

Senate

First-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R)

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent — St. Louis County prosecutor and ex-Ferguson City Councilman Wesley Bell (D) announced that he will enter next year’s US Senate race. He joins Iraq/Afghan War veteran and 2022 US Senate candidate Lucas Kunce in the 2024 Democratic primary.

In the ’22 race, Kunce lost the Democratic nomination 43-38 percent to Trudy Busch Valentine, a philanthropist who was a late entry into the campaign. She would then lose to current Sen. Eric Schmitt in the general election by a 55-42 percent count.

The Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary winner will face first-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R) in the general election. Sen. Hawley defeated Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in the 2018 race with a 51.4 – 45.6 percent margin. He is favored for re-election in a state that should lie solidly within the Republican realm during the next election. In 2020, then-President Trump defeated Joe Biden, 57-41 percent, in The Show Me State.

House

IA-3: Re-Match Doubtful — In 2022, then-state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) upset Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) to claim the 3rd District seat. Thoughts of a re-match were routinely discussed, but the latest action suggests one will not occur, at least in 2024. President Biden announced that he has appointed former Rep. Axne as a senior advisor to the Department of Agriculture for rural engagement, delivery, and prosperity.

While this move doesn’t completely eliminate Axne from returning to the political wars, her new position makes it less likely that she will be a candidate in the coming election cycle. Currently, mental health therapist Tracy Limon is the only announced Democratic candidate.

UT-2: Rep. Stewart Resignation Official — Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) made his resignation statement official with a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Wednesday. The congressman, leaving office because of his wife’s health condition, will depart on Sept. 15. Making the resignation official now gives Gov. Spencer Cox (R) more scheduling leeway in calling the replacement special election.

Already, former state representative and 2020 US Senate candidate Becky Edwards (R) has announced her candidacy as has state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). Crowded fields are expected for both parties. Republicans have a big advantage here in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23.

Fox News has reported in association with this story that the Republicans will be down a seat when Stewart departs. This is not accurate. Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned his seat on June 1, meaning the majority margin will be retained with each party missing one member.

Cities

Denver: Johnston Wins Mayoral Election — Former state Sen. Mike Johnston defeated ex-Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough by a 55-45 percent margin to win the open Denver mayor’s position on Tuesday night. Johnston previously ran for governor and US senator after leaving the state legislature.

Though the race was ostensibly non-partisan, Johnston aligned with the Democrats while Brough was closer to the Republicans. Campaign spending was about even between the two contenders, but outside liberal organizations came in to tip the financial advantage towards Johnston.

The mayor-elect will take office on July 17. He replaces three-term incumbent Michael Hancock, who was ineligible to seek another term under the new service limit ordinance the city adopted. In fact, Mayor Hancock will be the city’s final three-term chief executive.

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.

Speculation That Chaffetz Will Run for Office Again in Utah; GOP’s Super Majority in LA; Nunn Challenges in Iowa; Kistner Lining up to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Governor

Utah’s Jason Chaffetz (R)

Utah: Gov. Cox to Seek Re-Election, but Chaffetz is the Story — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) announced on Friday that he will seek a second term next year, but more of the political attention centers around former congressman and current Fox News commentator, Jason Chaffetz (R). There has been much speculation, and not denied, that Chaffetz is considering launching a Republican primary challenge against either Gov. Cox or Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Therefore, it appears the 2024 Utah nomination convention and Republican primary will feature some meaningful political action.

House

IA-3: Swing District Freshman Draws Challenger — Freshman US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) was one of the few challengers to win a House seat in 2022 when he scored a 49.6 – 48.9 percent win over two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines), a margin of 2,145 votes from more than 315,000 ballots cast. On Friday, mental health therapist Tracy Limon (D) announced her congressional candidacy, the first individual to come forward for the 2024 election. This could be a signal that former Rep. Axne will not return for a re-match, since the Democratic primary would likely be cleared for her if she desired to make a comeback.

MN-2: Kistner Considers Third Run — Navy veteran and businessman Tyler Kistner (R) has lost two close congressional races to Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and confirms that he is considering launching another re-match in 2024. The 2020 election proved his better showing, losing 48-46 percent. In the redistricted 2nd District, which now stretches from the Wisconsin border southwest to include the southern St. Paul and Minneapolis suburbs, the result was not as close, 51-46 percent, in the congresswoman’s favor. A Kistner third run would not likely change the result, as he received 46 percent in both of his elections. Republicans might find more success in 2024 with a fresh candidate.

States

Louisiana: Party Switch Gives Rs Super Majority — State Rep. Francis Thompson of Dehli is the longest-serving state legislator in Louisiana state history, being first elected in 1975. On Friday, he left the Democratic Party and became a Republican. The move gives the Republicans a two-thirds majority in the House, and makes it easier to override Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ vetoes. The move won’t change many issue voting patterns, however, since Rep. Thompson has always been one of the more conservative legislators. During his tenure in the legislature, Thompson has served in both the House and Senate.