Tag Archives: Frank Guinta

New Hampshire Consistent in its Inconsistency

No state has had more wild political swings than the Granite State of New Hampshire during the past four elections. Over that time, NH voters have turned out a US senator, defeated more members than they have re-elected, and deposed the majority party in five of the past 10 legislative chamber elections. A new early 2014 poll suggests that more upheaval is on the way.

The University of New Hampshire’s polling directors just released a survey completed during the Jan. 21-26 period in which 584 registered Granite State voters were questioned. A total of 304 respondents were in the eastern 1st Congressional District; 280 in the western 2nd CD. As has been the pattern with UNH polls, bizarre results are often produced that many times prove inconsistent with the findings of other pollsters and even their own previous data.

The Senate

The first bit of inconsistency in their latest poll comes in the Senate race. UNH finds  Continue reading >

Griffin to Retire in Arkansas; New NH Polls

As was widely reported yesterday, sophomore Arkansas Rep. Tim Griffin (R-AR-2) announced that he will not seek a third term in the House, saying that he needs to spend more time with his young children, whom he described as being in their “formative” years.

With Griffin’s retirement, a 20th open seat will now be present in the 2014 election cycle and this one has a good chance of becoming competitive. Though Rep. Griffin and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney each garnered a healthy 55 percent of the vote in this Little Rock metropolitan district, Democrat Rep. Vic Snyder represented a similar configuration of the 2nd District for 14 years.

Recognizing that the Griffin retirement announcement came as a major surprise, names of potential candidates in both parties are quickly beginning to surface, nonetheless. For his fellow Republicans, who Griffin said he wanted to help by announcing his decision early, state senators David Sanders, Jeremy Hutchinson, Jason Rapert, ex-Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker, former state Rep. Ed Garner, and businessman French Hill are the most prominent names mentioned.

On the Democrat side, former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays is expected to announce his candidacy today. Considering forming a campaign committee are former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, state Sen. David Johnson, state Rep. Tommy Thompson, former state Rep. Linda Tyler, and Conway Mayor Tab Townsell.

The campaign’s early sector should yield a “Lean Republican” rating, but it would not be surprising to see this contest tip toward “Toss-up” territory once campaigning becomes heavy.

New Hampshire

Over the past few election cycles the University of New Hampshire has conducted political polling, but their reliability factor has proved questionable. The new UNH release is not likely to engender improvement because the  Continue reading >

Another Swing in Politically Volatile NH?

Since 2006, the state of New Hampshire has been the most politically volatile entity in the entire country. The swings in voter sentiment have been so severe that, since 2006 inclusive, more incumbent US House members have actually been defeated in this state than re-elected. The instability could again be present in the 2014 mid-term election, as the turnout model will return to lower participation territory, possibly creating a similar dynamic that led to a Republican sweep in 2010.

Hoping to make the latter statement a reality is former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH-1), who defeated then-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) in 2010, but subsequently lost to her in a re-match during his first re-election attempt last year. For her part, Shea-Porter defeated then-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH-1) in 2006, was re-elected in ’08, and lost to Guinta in 2010 before winning her comeback attempt.

Yesterday, Guinta officially announced that he will strive to come back in 2014. The move is not a surprise. He has been counted among several 2012 candidates or defeated incumbents who are potential re-match challengers. His path to the nomination isn’t clear, however. University of New Hampshire business school dean Dan Innis, who is referred to as a “gay married man” in certain local press articles, is leaning heavily toward running for the seat. Guinta in 2010, sitting as the mayor of Manchester, which is the state’s and 1st CD’s largest city, came to office in the Tea Party wave. So, if both men do in fact enter the primary race, the campaign should be lively assuming Innis can attract the necessary funds to run competitively.

The 1st District occupies the central and eastern regions of New Hampshire and is the more conservative of the two seats. Rep. Shea-Porter has scored 51, 52, 42, and 50 percent in her four House elections. Clearly, never topping 52 percent during her entire electoral career makes her highly vulnerable in the ensuing election.

AL-1 Primary Election Today

As reported yesterday, tonight the votes will be counted in Alabama’s special primary election to fill the vacancy for resigned Rep. Jo Bonner’s (R) seat. He left the House in August.

All the action will be on the Republican side, as the eventual GOP nominee will be the  Continue reading >

Two Skewed Polls: NH / Minn.

NH-MN-cds

Harper Polling conducted two surveys for the National Republican Congressional Committee and found a pair of potential 2014 GOP challengers in excellent shape, but the polls appear to contain methodological flaws.

NH-1

According to Harper, former New Hampshire Congressman Frank Guinta (R), who is considering a comeback attempt in the state’s 1st CD, leads Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48-41 percent in their poll of 408 registered voters released July 17. In 2010, Guinta defeated Shea-Porter 54-42 percent after she had served two consecutive terms in Washington. Two years later, the former congresswoman returned the favor, reclaiming the seat 50-46 percent before an expanded turnout of some 120,000 more voters than during the mid-term election. In the presidential years, the 1st District voted twice for President Obama: 53-46 percent in 2008, and 50-49 percent in 2012.

Though New Hampshire voters do not register by political party, it is clear from the voting history that the 1st District leans more towards Democrats than Republicans. Yet, there is no disputing that it qualifies as a true swing district. Hence, Harper’s sample consisting of 40 percent Republicans, only 31 percent Democrats, and 29 percent Independents is slanted in the GOP’s favor. This is not to say that Guinta may be performing well in comparison to the congresswoman, particularly considering the two candidates’ see-saw history when facing each other, but a seven-point lead at this juncture of the campaign seems out of whack.

Still, it is data like this that could encourage Guinta to get back into the race. He is also reportedly considering a US Senate challenge to incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D), but such a move appears less likely as time progresses.
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Brown’s First NH Numbers

Public Policy Polling (April 19-21; 933 registered New Hampshire voters) went to New Hampshire to test former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown’s (R) electability in the Granite State. Two weeks ago, Brown, who was defeated for re-election in Massachusetts last November, indicated that he is considering challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2014. Since publicly confirming that the idea is at least a possibility, he has made several appearances in the state.

The early PPP numbers, however, don’t look particularly promising for Brown, but he does fare better than any other Republican against Shaheen. If the election were in the current time frame, the senator would lead him 52-41 percent. Though being 11 points down early in the cycle is not the worst of positions for a challenger, it was believed Brown might fare better because of being so well-known throughout the entire New England region.

But, it’s not the ballot test results that suggest the former senator begins in relatively weak political position in New Hampshire. When asked if the respondents think that Brown should run for Senate in the state next year, only 32 percent said they believe he should as compared to 54 percent who said no.

Turning to whether those in the sampling universe consider Brown a New Hampshirite, only 18 percent said that they did. A full 63 percent said they did not.

As previously stated, Brown does fare better than any other Republican against Sen. Shaheen. Former US congressman Jeb Bradley (R-NH-1), who now is the state Senate Majority Leader, trails the senator 39-54 percent. Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) is behind 34-53 percent; ex-congressman Frank Guinta (R-NH-1) comes up 18 points short at 37-55 percent. Finally, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R), the son of former governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of former senator John E. Sununu, would lose to Sen. Shaheen 39-53 percent.
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