Tag Archives: California

DeSantis Officially Declares;
Rep. Lee Releases New Poll;
No Re-Match in NJ-7 for Rep. Kean

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 26, 2023

President

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Officially Declares — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally made his long-awaited presidential announcement in a technically flawed Twitter interview with Elon Musk. Simultaneously, the Never Back Down Super PAC, an organization supporting DeSantis, said they are planning to recruit an operation of 2,600 people to visit targeted homes of voters in the key early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Therefore, with other candidates soon to announce, the slow developing 2024 presidential campaign finally looks to be getting underway in earnest.

Senate

California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)

California: Rep. Lee Releases New Poll — California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) released the results of a three-pollster conglomeration that included 1,380 California likely voters mostly via live interview with some text responses over the May 13-21 period. The three involved polling firms were FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies.

For the first time in a statewide open US Senate poll, a Republican candidate, former Attorney General contender Eric Early was added to the questionnaire. With a split among the three Democratic House members of Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Early placed first in this comprehensive jungle primary survey with a preference figure of 27 percent. Reps. Porter, Schiff, and Lee followed with 24, 21, and 11 percent, respectively.

The result is interesting in that the ballot test suggests a Republican could well advance into the general election with two of the Dem House members eliminated from the competition. Clearly, this jungle primary will be another of the most interesting races we will see on the March 5th Super Tuesday election calendar.

House

NJ-7: No Re-Match — New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal seat anchored in Union County, but the voters there will not see the third version of a Tom Kean Jr. vs Tom Malinowski campaign. In 2018, Malinowski converted the seat for the Democrats, defeating five-term GOP incumbent Leonard Lance. The Democratic congressman then won a close re-election race against Republican Tom Kean. The 2022 re-match went Kean’s way, though, and Malinowski announced Wednesday that he will not return for a rubber match.

The 7th District became more Republican in redistricting but is still competitive. Rep. Kean will definitely face a strong Democratic opponent in 2024, but it will not be Malinowski. State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Roy Freiman (D-Hillsborough) are two potential Democratic candidates.

Note: In observance of Memorial Day, Monday, May 29, we will not publish our regular updates. Our next one will be Tuesday, May 30.

Texas Rep. Allred’s Looming Challenger; Calif. Reps. Kim, Levin Attract New Opponents; NY-4 Re-Match Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 12, 2023

Senate

Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas)

Texas: Rep. Allred Unlikely to Have Free Ride — Last week, Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced that he would enter the 2024 Senate race to challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). At that time, most believed Allred would be virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Previously, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) indicated an interest in challenging Sen. Cruz, but he largely became a second thought when Rep. Allred declared his candidacy. Most then believed that Gutierrez would not force a Senate nomination campaign. However, the senator indicated Wednesday that he in fact is still considering launching a US Senate campaign and is headed toward becoming a candidate.

Coming from the district that houses the city of Uvalde, the site of the tragic 2022 school shooting, and the Del Rio community, where most of the illegals are entering the country on the Texas border, Sen. Gutierrez certainly represents some of the hot points in Lone Star State politics. Rep. Allred would still be favored to win the party nomination but adding Sen. Gutierrez to a competitive Democratic primary would certainly add spice to this intra-party campaign.

House

CA-40: Rep. Kim Attracts New Opponent — Retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr (D), who drew only 11 percent of the vote in a 2022 state Senate race in another part of Orange County, announced that he will now challenge two-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) next year. Rep. Kim defeated physician Asif Mahmood (D) 57-43 percent in a district that was 80 percent new territory from the 39th District in which she had originally won her first congressional election.

While it is clear the Democrats will need a stronger candidate to oppose Rep. Kim than Dr. Mahmood, it is probable that Kerr is also not the type of candidate who can unseat this more than capable Republican incumbent.

CA-49: A New Opponent for Rep. Levin — In both California’s 40th and 49th Congressional Districts, we see two candidates who lost the same 2022 state Senate race venturing into congressional contests. Auto dealer Matt Gunderson (R), who lost the general election to State Sen. Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas), says he will challenge Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano/La Jolla) in a CD that closely resembles the state legislative seat where he received 48 percent of the vote last year.

The 49th CD that stretches from Orange County south into San Diego, is a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization assigns a D+5 rating, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.0D – 46.0R. Rep. Levin has three times defeated ex-San Juan Capistrano mayor and councilman Brian Maryott (R). In 2022, the margin was 53-47 percent. While clear the Republicans need a new candidate to compete in this district, it remains to be seen if Gunderson can wage an effective enough campaign to unseat the three-term incumbent.

NY-4: Re-Match Forming — Freshman Long Island Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) holds — along with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District — the most Democratic seat in the country that elects a Republican to the House. Now, it appears that he will be facing a re-match with the woman he defeated in 2022, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D). The 2022 result was 51-47 percent in D’Esposito’s favor.

Long Island’s 4th District includes the town of Hempstead and the Garden City, Oceanside, Freeport, and Valley Stream communities among others. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 59.6D – 38.9R. President Biden carried the district with a 56.8 – 42.2 percent margin, which suggests that Rep. D’Esposito has a difficult road to re-election in a presidential election year.

Battleground Polling in Key States; Landry Leads in Louisiana Poll; Another California Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 27, 2023

President

Battleground Polling: New Surveys in Key States —As reported Tuesday, on the four-year anniversary of announcing his victorious candidacy in 2019, President Joe Biden officially declared for re-election.

At his current age of 80, Biden is already the oldest individual to occupy his office; curiously, he plans to adopt the theme of ‘needing more time to finish the job’ building upon the goals he originally outlined when embarking upon his 2020 national campaign.

Public Opinion Strategies (POS) conducted five 500-sample general election polls in five battleground states during the April 11-20 period, and all of the surveys produced very close results while highlighting a familiar pattern. This research gives us an early indication that we will again see a very close general election campaign.

In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, POS tested both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis individually against President Biden. In every instance, we see DeSantis running better when paired against Biden than does Trump.

First, in Arizona, President Biden would lead Trump by a single point, while Gov. DeSantis would record a six-point advantage over the Democratic incumbent. The Michigan numbers produced a similar pattern, with the president running two points ahead of Trump but trailing the Florida governor by three. Almost the same pattern occurred in the Silver State of Nevada: Biden up one over Trump but down three to DeSantis. Pennsylvania yields virtually the same result: Biden plus-4 over Trump; DeSantis plus-3 over Biden. And, just about the same was projected for Wisconsin: Biden leading Trump by three percentage points while drawing even opposite Gov. DeSantis.

Governor

Louisiana: AG Landry Leads in Open Seat Poll — WPA Intelligence, polling for the Club for Growth organization (April 11-13; 500 likely Louisiana primary voters; live interview), projects Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry to be opening a large lead over his open race gubernatorial opponents. The ballot test results yield a 36-18 percent lead over Democratic former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. No other candidate reaches double-digits, with state Treasurer John Schroder (R) topping the also-rans with six percent support.

The all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14, 2023. If no one reaches 50 percent, the top two finishers will then face each other in a runoff election on Nov. 18. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

California: Second 2026 Candidate Announces — Yesterday, we covered the story that California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) already formally announced her 2026 campaign for governor. Following suit, former state Treasurer Betty Yee (D) made a public statement saying that she, too, will be competing in what will be an open California governor’s race with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term.

It is highly unusual to see candidates announce for a race almost four years in advance of the election. In a state the size of California, however, and considering the expense of a statewide campaign, time becomes as important a resource as money. Therefore, multi-cycle campaigns could be the beginning of a future Golden State trend.

Gallego Leads in Three-Way Polling; Montana Jungle Primary System Appears Dead; Rep. Bost Challenger in IL-12; Calif. Gubernatorial Candidate Announces; NH Candidate Jockeying;

By Jim Ellis — April 26, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Rep. Gallego (D) Leads in New Three-Way Polling — Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Phoenix) US Senate campaign released its internal Public Policy Polling survey that gives the congressman healthy leads over all of the potential Republican opponents as well as incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). The PPP poll (April 18-19; 559 Arizona voters) finds that former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake performs best of the potential Republican nominees, trailing 42-35-14 percent with Sen. Sinema in third place. The poll also finds the incumbent plagued with a poor 27:50 percent favorability index.

These results are much different than the recent OH Predictive Insights poll that perched Gallego in the low 30s and Sen. Sinema hovering around the 20 percent mark with a favorability rating much closer to even. Expect to see many polls being released throughout this unique Senate campaign.

Montana: Top Two Primary Idea Appears Dead — The state measure to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for a top two all-party jungle primary system appears to be dead. GOP state legislators appear not to have the stomach to move forward with the test, even though the state Senate had originally passed the legislation.

Republicans were apparently trying to eliminate the probability of the Libertarian candidate attracting in the three percent range, which is common in Montana. The belief is most of those votes would go to a Republican candidate. Therefore, eliminating minor party candidates from the general election ballot would at least theoretically make Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) road to re-election much more difficult.

House

IL-12: Ex-GOP Gubernatorial Nominee to Challenge Rep. Mike Bost (R) — Former Illinois state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey (losing 55-42 percent to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, D) is reportedly testing the political waters for a primary challenge to five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale).

The 12th District is one of just three Republican seats in the state and occupies all of southern Illinois. It appears a Bailey victory path is difficult to chart, since Rep. Bost is solidly conservative and unlikely to upset the party base. Should Bailey move forward, this will be another race to watch in Illinois’ March 19, 2024, primary.

Governor

California: Lieutenant Governor Already Announces — California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is wasting no time in making her intention known that she will run for governor in 2026. She announced Monday the formation of her campaign committee even though the electoral contest is still three years away from occurring. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time. It had become common knowledge that Kounalakis would not enter the open 2024 US Senate race because she was planning a ’26 gubernatorial bid.

New Hampshire: Ex-Senate Candidate Eyes Governor Race — Former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who lost the 2022 Republican US Senate primary by one percentage point, confirms that he has interest in running for governor next year if incumbent Chris Sununu (R) decides not to seek a fifth term.

Though New Hampshire has just two-year gubernatorial terms, only Gov. Sununu and former Gov. John Lynch (D) have served four consecutive terms. Most believe that Gov. Sununu will not run a fifth time since he is a potential presidential candidate. It is possible, however, for him to enter the national campaign and still have time to again run for governor should he not succeed in his presidential effort. New Hampshire has one of the latest candidate filing deadlines and primary elections in the country.

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also frequently mentioned as a potential open-seat gubernatorial contender. Outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig attracts the most attention as a possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Trump/DeSantis vs. Biden; Lake Likely to Enter Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies; Whitmer’s Sister Declares Candidacy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 25, 2023

President

WSJ Poll: Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General — We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden.

The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; April 11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Trump holding a 51-38 percent lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis. Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Trump leads with 48 percent as compared to the Florida governor’s 24 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only five percent support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers two percent. This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38 percent.

In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Joe Biden 48-45 percent. If Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45 percent edge.

Senate

Former Arizona newscaster Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy — Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as governor. Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.

Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate. This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party. The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status.

California: Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies — According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign. Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election. Suffering from shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session. This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment. At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

House

NY-17: Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress — Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County-anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat. Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility.

With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

Sen. Scott Forms Exploratory Committee; Sen. Baldwin to Seek Third Term; Re-Match Brewing in AZ, NY; Ex-Rep. Rouda Injured in Fall

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 14, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Exploratory Committee Formed — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, which is likely his first official step toward becoming a national candidate. It’s hard to see a Republican nomination victory path for the senator, however. South Carolina is obviously the heart of his support base, but with the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, already in the race, even that is diminished.

Should Sen. Scott advance into official candidacy, it is likely that former President Donald Trump will be the chief beneficiary. The more crowded the candidate field, the more favorable to Trump.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin to Seek Third Term — As expected, Badger State Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) announced this week that she will seek a third term next year. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 but has been in elected public office consecutively since 1985. Prior to winning her current position, Baldwin served in the US House, the Wisconsin state assembly, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and the Madison Common Council.

No Republican has formally come forward, but several individuals are considering the race. Unless the congressional map is redrawn, it is doubtful any member of the US House delegation will run. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is a potential candidate as is businessman Scott Mayer. While Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election, the 2024 Senate race could well become highly competitive.

House

AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing — We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2 percent count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Engel returns for a second chance.

Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district.

CA-47: Ex-Rep. Harley Rouda Forced Out — Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status.

This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open-seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate.

NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing — Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4 percent to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024.

The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign.

Arizona Sheriff May Announce for Senate; Senate Candidates Poised in Nevada; CA-27 Candidates Emerging

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Senate

Arizona’s Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R)

Arizona: Republicans May Soon Have a Candidate — Political reports in Arizona suggest that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) may announce his US Senate candidacy as early as this week. Most of the attention so far has been upon whether 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would enter the race. She has yet to say whether another campaign is in her immediate plans.

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is an announced candidate, and has been leading in the most recent polling. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) appears to be preparing to seek a second term, but has not yet said whether she will run on the No Labels Party ticket after leaving the Democrats. Count upon the Arizona Senate race again becoming one of the top races in the country next year.

Nevada: Rosen Raising; Republicans Deciding — Nevada political sources indicate that both former GOP US Senate candidate Sam Brown and defeated 2022 congressional nominee April Becker may both soon announce 2024 US Senate campaigns.

Brown became more of a factor in the 2022 Senate primary than originally expected due to impressive fundraising, but still lost to former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt who would then lose a close general election contest to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Becker lost a 52-48 percent decision to Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in the 3rd Congressional District battle.

Meanwhile, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has been hard at work on the fundraising trail. Her campaign indicates the senator will report $2.4 million raised for the quarter ending March 31, with more than $6 million cash-on-hand. Expect another close race here, but Sen. Rosen must be considered the favorite to win a second term.

House

CA-27: Two Democrats Making Moves — Southern California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) won his most impressive victory in 2022, a 53-47 percent victory over former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the district partisan lean at 53.7D – 44.3R. With Smith now losing three times, Democrats are looking toward other options. We can again expect this to become a national congressional campaign.

Former Virgin Galactic CEO and ex-NASA chief of staff George Whitesides (D), who was the first to announce his candidacy earlier this year, is reportedly going to disclose more than $500,000 raised for the 2024 race in the March 31 Federal Election Commission quarterly disclosure report and another $500,000 self-contributed.

Franky Carrillo (D), who was wrongly imprisoned for 22 years for a murder later proved that he did not commit, and was then awarded a $19 million settlement from the state of California, is expected to formally launch his campaign later this month.